Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[FANGO]

We've spent like three pages talking about a few members here. Is this a gossip forum or an investment forum? I can't tell.

Stop it.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

Ok, this pickering between people should really move to various different threads and I do really expect mods to do more work on this. Discussions on demand to demand etc.

This is short term price movements thread that should highlight news and info bits on topics that may move the price in the short term. I run a few businesses and I don't have time to sit here all day, yet I want to be informed. It takes me a few hours every day to go through the posts and majority of this is utter BS pickering between members with 0 added value. How about a separate thread is created for yammering and arguing and the mods actually enforce it.

As an example on NASASpaceFlight forums majority of topics are split in two threads: Updates / Discussions. The first is for updates only and mods are extremely strict moving posts to discussions if they don't qualify as updates. I don't think we need to be as strict here, but constant arguing wether someone is a troll or what their motives are IS NOT OF INTEREST to short term price movements.

I'll report my own post to bring this point to mods attention, but I think we need stronger interventions or this thread loses its value for daily trading information. Right now there are about 10 posts of arguing for every post of actual factual updates.

With regard to short term movements, I checked the max pain for today and it's at $225 so we may see a small uptick today, but for next week it's at $220, but there's still time for the open interest to flow if the stock does start moving on Monday.

 

[sub]

This is my concern. I have seen no increase in the number of SCs. They have to become 50% more efficient or have 50% more space, IMO, to be able to minimally meet H2 delivery guidance.
There may be some very quiet SCs but many are overbooked for weeks already for service. While the most recent Xs have better QC, they still take much more time than the Ss to prep.
There are only so many service bays, service techs, and delivery personnel.
Yes, TM may make these deliveries but of the three components needed to make the H2 guidance...demand, production and deliveries...I feel the bottleneck right now is the SC/delivery level.

Is there evidence that there have been issues getting cars delivered in recent qtrs? If not (I don't know the answer), we can then assume that the SC's have not been maxed out on the number of cars they can deliver. Either way, I believe deliveries is a combination of man power and enough real estate to park and prep the cars.

Glad you mentioned the potential issue, I agree it could be a problem but it's solvable and IMO low probability.

 

[Matias]

Is there evidence that there have been issues getting cars delivered in recent qtrs?

There were 5000 cars waiting for delivery at the end of Q2.

 

[RobStark]

There were 5000 cars waiting for delivery at the end of Q2.

There were 5k cars en route to their owners.

 

[vgrinshpun]

There were 5000 cars waiting for delivery at the end of Q2.

These were not waiting at the service centers, but were in transit - on ships and trucks per Tesla statement. So this is an indication that they were shipped late, rather then SC not able to cope with incoming cars.

If one assumes average time in transit worldwide to be about 4 weeks and production rate of 2000 per week, there would be 8000 cars in transit, and this fact alone would not tell anything about ability of SC to deliver this throughput of cars.

 

[AlMc]

These were not waiting at the service centers, but were in transit - on ships and trucks per Tesla statement. So this is an indication that they were shipped late, rather then SC not able to cope with incoming cars.

If one assumes average time in transit worldwide to be about 4 weeks and production rate of 2000 per week, there would be 8000 cars in transit, and this fact alone would not tell anything about ability of SC to deliver this throughput of cars.

I agree that there is no evidence that there WILL be s problem delivering 50% more vehicles in H2 then H1

I am over my concerns that there is demand for >2,000 vehicles per week and that the factory can turn out > 2,000
Vehicles per week in H2. We have reports that confirm these numbers.

The SCs that are currently overtaxed now with routine service and repairs COULD have issues delivery these vehicles. My local ( your local SC Vginsphun as well) appears on two recent visits to be maxed out.
My concerns could be unfounded. There are several solutions people have suggested. Put off regular service....there is already 6 week waits at many facilities. Go 24/7...Need more service techs and space to house the vehicles....possible.

So, yes, it is quite possible but until we see it we are taking it on faith.

Please feel free to point out my baseless concerns when 50k vehicles are delivered in H2.

 

[VanE]

I agree that there is no evidence that there WILL be s problem delivering 50% more vehicles in H2 then H1

I am over my concerns that there is demand for >2,000 vehicles per week and that the factory can turn out > 2,000
Vehicles per week in H2. We have reports that confirm these numbers.

The SCs that are currently overtaxed now with routine service and repairs COULD have issues delivery these vehicles. My local ( your local SC Vginsphun as well) appears on two recent visits to be maxed out.
My concerns could be unfounded. There are several solutions people have suggested. Put off regular service....there is already 6 week waits at many facilities. Go 24/7...Need more service techs and space to house the vehicles....possible.

So, yes, it is quite possible but until we see it we are taking it on faith.

Please feel free to point out my baseless concerns when 50k vehicles are delivered in H2.

I think that this could be indeed one of the biggest obstacles if they have the production process under control (what appears to be).

But how much of the strain that the SC's currently experience is produced by the aftermath of the 'crappy' MX's that were delivered at the beginning of this year? It wouldn't surprise me if a significant portion of the current strain is still produced by those first few thousands vehicles that had all kinds of problems. IF this is true the SC will become more free as the quarter progresses, which will leave more room to deliver new vehicles.

 

[darthy001]

My concerns could be unfounded. There are several solutions people have suggested. Put off regular service....there is already 6 week waits at many facilities.

Seems like this is the way they operate here in Norway at least. Never heard of anyone waiting long for delivery, but wait times for service is easily 3-6months on most service centers here. Has been like this for years now. Obviously they prioritise getting cash for new deliveries....

 

[Drax7]

Sales may be hard, production may be even harder, but deliveries are not.
I am certain Teslas management is taking that into account.
I think there are other areas where risks are higher.

 

[madodel]

Cross-post from another thread, but Senator Thune, who sent the letter to Tesla, has been supportive of automated driving technologies and making sure the regulatory environment does not stifle innovation. This is from a hearing he chaired in March:

Hands Off: The Future of Self-Driving Cars

"Because so much is possible, we must be careful not to stymie innovation because of a lack of imagination.​

"Federal and state governments may need to rethink how they regulate and license vehicles for the future.​

"We must ensure that the United States remains the cradle of innovation and that we continue to lead the way in the development and deployment of automated vehicles.​

"This morning, the Committee had the great opportunity to see some of this technology in action, when we brought self-drive to Capitol Hill. Continental, Volkswagen, BMW, and Tesla provided vehicles that gave us first-hand experience to see what the future may hold and a preview to the discussions at this hearing."​

Why do they keep calling it "Self-Driving Cars" then wonder why people mistakenly think the car can drive itself. Instead they blame Tesla for calling it "AutoPilot" because in cartoons the plane can not only talk but can fly itself. This is the problem.

 

[jhm]

If you want to see TSLA rise above $225, then SCTY needs to reach $27.

$27.45 = $225×0.122

There is presently about a 10% arbitrage opportunity to swap TSLA for SCTY, and this will continue to hold the price of Tesla down.

I keep posting on this because it seems many investors fail to grasp the importance of following price movements in both stocks. They are tethered by the anticipated merger. Posters here keep posting on Tesla price movements without reference to SolarCity. For the moment, upward price movement for SolarCity is much more important than gains in Tesla.

 

[EinSV]

Why do they keep calling it "Self-Driving Cars" then wonder why people mistakenly think the car can drive itself. Instead they blame Tesla for calling it "AutoPilot" because in cartoons the plane can not only talk but can fly itself. This is the problem.

People do get sloppy with their terminology but in fairness I believe this particular hearing was discussing the future of automated driving technology, including a focus on fully autonomous driving/self driving vehicles.

 

[lango]

If you want to see TSLA rise above $225, then SCTY needs to reach $27.

$27.45 = $225×0.122

There is presently about a 10% arbitrage opportunity to swap TSLA for SCTY, and this will continue to hold the price of Tesla down.

I keep posting on this because it seems many investors fail to grasp the importance of following price movements in both stocks. They are tethered by the anticipated merger. Posters here keep posting on Tesla price movements without reference to SolarCity. For the moment, upward price movement for SolarCity is much more important than gains in Tesla.

Is there a reasonable high chance the number of shares Tesla will pay for each share of SolarCity can be updated or changed? Or is it stuck in this range because of the intent letter? Anyone knows how stuff like this normally plays out?

The "arbitrage" is because of risk the deal does not go through so it is not a real arbitrage obviously but I get your point. Hard to gauge the chance of the deal not happening and how much SolarCity will go down in that case, probably over 20-30% at-least if not more. So this to me indicates Elon was almost certain it would go through otherwise there was a too big risk for SolarCity.

So this could mean Tesla will be range bound for months then, or SolarCity will also go up when Tesla do but given the negativity around SolarCity I don't see it going up by much.

I am starting to think we won't see any big movements (close to or new ATH) until either TE or Model 3 is shipping in numbers. I think Model S and X will at most reach the 2400 a week production before 2018 as Model 3 production will get the limited resources they have and 2400 a week I don't think will move the stock that much.

 

[X Yes?]

I agree that there is no evidence that there WILL be s problem delivering 50% more vehicles in H2 then H1

I am over my concerns that there is demand for >2,000 vehicles per week and that the factory can turn out > 2,000
Vehicles per week in H2. We have reports that confirm these numbers.

The SCs that are currently overtaxed now with routine service and repairs COULD have issues delivery these vehicles. My local ( your local SC Vginsphun as well) appears on two recent visits to be maxed out.
My concerns could be unfounded. There are several solutions people have suggested. Put off regular service....there is already 6 week waits at many facilities. Go 24/7...Need more service techs and space to house the vehicles....possible.

So, yes, it is quite possible but until we see it we are taking it on faith.

Please feel free to point out my baseless concerns when 50k vehicles are delivered in H2.

Good information, your concerns are valid. This situation will get worse with more Model X on the road.

 

[MartinAustin]

SCTY traded over 3 million shares in the first few minutes! (If I'm reading it right)

EDIT - Sorry, I was NOT reading it right!!! Back to your normal programming...

 

[Yggdrasill]

In March 2014, Tesla delivered 1493 Model S in Norway, and they had (I think) 5 service centers.

Now Tesla has something like 200 locations, so Tesla should be able to deliver something like 200 x 300 x 3 = 180,000 cars per quarter.

This is of course if they *really* prioritize deliveries. Push out all servicing and assign all available emplyees to delivering cars, even factory employees, with everyone working insane hours.

Maybe a quarter of this can be done comfortably, which means 45k cars per quarter, so 25k per quarter should be fairly easy. I'm not worrried.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Tesla shorts are going to feel like Herbalife shorts real soon......

 

[tanner]

Tesla shorts are going to feel like Herbalife shorts real soon......

One can only hope

 

[X Yes?]

Tesla shorts are going to feel like Herbalife shorts real soon......

What are you basing that on? The problem with bad publicity, whether warranted or not, the effect lingers for years. Recent examples are GM and Chipotle