Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[electracity]

Elon is talking about thinking of the manufacturing process (the factory) the same way: Devoting time to designing the factory and the manufacturing/production processes with a purpose in mind (to build cars) but with greater efficiency (more cars per minute), with higher performance (better quality), and at a lower cost. Basically conceiving a better factory, and devoting engineers to the task of achieving that goal through innovative designs, iteration, and testing.

Finally, workers will no longer arrive at factories each morning and work in a disorganized, ad hoc manner. Thanks Elon!

 

[Irishjugg]

I'm unclear when Elon says building the factory as a product . . . as in, sell factories as "kits" to other automakers? Or, skip legacy automakers altogether (too slow to change, not nimble enough), and sell to anyone or any company who wants a "factory" to pump out their own cars, and Tesla gets a cut of each? Maybe Tesla sells factory products to, oh, Google? Apple?

Maybe this is why the patents were given away? Because they plan to sell turnkey factories as products... Thing to keep an eye out for now is this: will these new factory-as-product designs be patented or also giveaways?

Think about uploading the design of your product to their website and being set up with an order of the few various machines you need for their customizable, modular, fully autonomous manufacturing suite, and then you decide what run rate and it sets the quantity accordingly... etc. The software will be the differentiator not the patents.

 

[gigglehertz]

I thought the most immediate reason for TMP2 was to justify the merger, and I didn't hear much we didn't already know.. Every house a utility, but what about existing utilities, or large commercial? Powerpacks are far more useful and will have a much bigger impact in the short term than Powerwall. I suspect we'll hear much more about it during the gigafactory reveal. One thing I'd like them to say is firm up cell cost estimates. They've been understandably cagey but giving a timeline for reducing costs by a specific amount would get a lot of people thinking and have analysts upping price targets faster than anything here.

I also thought the bus thing was a little too far out to talk about now and will not be understood though the semi has real potential.

I think I actually heard Adam Jonas get a boner reading about the Uber like service.

I would have liked to hear how the cheap, fast satellite constellation would assist in communication and mapping for the fleet. Somebody posted they heard that was on hold, but I can't find any news at all.

Good pop tomorrow, no big squeeze unless analysts chime in between now and giga-party.

 

[MartinAustin]

Great blog post. I think there will be a TSLA pop tomorrow... $5 to $10.

Expect tons of coverage... widespread... across most of the press and media over the next month. With the Gigafactory party as well, it's going to be a multi-week Tesla-fest in the mainstream media.

Adam Jonas can sing it from the treetops that he was asking the right questions. <sigh>

I would vote or Julian Cox to come back to the forum... (as long as he can lighten up on his detractors and not wage war on them right here in the forum)

So now, if you think Tesla had it bad with car dealers...

Tesla has now declared war on utility companies. (1)
Tesla has now declared war on home roofing companies. (2)
Tesla has now declared war on Uber, Lyft and all taxi firms.
Tesla has now declared war on semi truck manufacturers who were watching the premium car battle from the bleachers.
Tesla has now declared war on the operators of urban car parking lots that charge money each day

And Tesla will become a player in other markets like bus manufacturing.

It's a huge deal... just as big of a deal as the first master plan had it been taken seriously at the time. I'm pretty sure we all agree here that the new plan will be taken a lot more seriously than the first.

(1)
The cost of solar-plus-battery will become so low that people will install it anyway even if the local legislation is causing them to pay money to the local utility (which they are not using at all). I can see many legislatures blocking or hampering the sale of electricity back into the grid - but it will be too late. "Central distribution" utility companies will start to go away via bankrupcies and other consolidations once they are not supplying enough power to homes.

(2)
Elon has been making noises to the effect that Solar City has been "working on something new" and in SMP2 he says they will have "differentiating solar." To me this means solar panels that are not only a big nicer to look at than what SunPower etc. are producing, but they can also replace the shingles, slates or other surface on your roof. Think about it... as installation of solar on home roofs increases, the expense of shingles underneath the solar panels will start to look like something you want to eliminate. If only the entire roof could be coated in the solar stuff and allow you to avoid installing shingles underneath. The producers of roofing shingles - Owens Corning, etc. - will feel the hurt as less and less people put that stuff on the roofs of new homes. Houses hit by hailstorms or other disasters will switch to the new solar roofs and not simply replace with identical roofing like before.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I am a bit disappointed with lack of mention of PowerPacks in the Plan, but I think it is premature to throw the tantrum - feels that more info on TE is coming on July 29.

This, on another hand, is pure brilliance:

"A lower cost vehicle than the Model 3 is unlikely to be necessary, because of the third part of the plan described below."

What do you mean we can't afford Tesla??

Looks like Elon just pulled an Oprah on us: Tesla for everybody!

 

[Oil4AsphaultOnly]

I think we can expect a rise for the rest of the week, but not directly due to SMP2. Rather, with the vision cemented and tied to SCTY, the major shareholders will be recalling their shares more quickly (to vote, since the merger plans will be happening sooner than later), accelerating the short-squeezing.

Anyone notice how little volume has been trading this week? It's the shorts desperately trying to cover without spiking the stock. Now that the plan is in place, they'll need to cover sooner, losses be damned.

 

[anticitizen13.7]

Don't be scared, the future actually looks oh so very bright. Those old school jobs will soon be replaced by "fleet managers," but more importantly, the technology sector will continue to blossom in America. Engineers, designers and tech savvy individuals will be in maximum demand to ensure our economy thrives under those conditions demanded by the modern world. With capitalism, you must evolve, or be irrelevant. Go Tesla! No fear..

Here is where I don't think people understand the danger.

First Principle 1: The purpose of a machine is to multiply the "work" (in an economic sense, not necessarily a physical mechanics sense) output of a human.

For a mechanical machine, that means multiplying what that human can do, e.g. a sewing machines allows a person to sew say 10x what a normal person can sew. For a computational machine, that means multiplying what a human can do with their mind. A "fleet manager" can manage multiple trucks/buses. If 1 fleet manager can manage 100 vehicles that used to require 1 human drive each, what do the 99 displaced human workers do? The new jobs created by leveraging technology will be far less than the number of jobs eliminated by that tech.

When routine agricultural jobs were eliminated in the 19th and early 20th centuries via mechanization, people could still find jobs in factories. When routine factory jobs became increasingly automated, there were still plenty of office jobs and jobs where human hand/eye coordination could not be replaced. Now with even routine office work and traditional hand/eye coordination jobs under threat, where will people go?


First Principle 2: Not everyone is smart enough to be an Engineer, designer, or tech worker.

First Principle 3: Idle people get into trouble.

Do we really want hordes of idle people to become "irrelevant" to society? Jailing people en masse works very poorly today, and I doubt it would work any better in the future. People without work and without purpose will resort to crime to survive.

I love new technology, but I also find that societies in general do not really consider the implications of what technology will do to the fabric of a society.

 

[dalalsid]

I was in Thailand a few days ago and saw an ad (a rare event) for BMW at the airport showing BMW's vision for the next 100 years. Smp2 just made the next 100 years of BMW pointless.

 

[ggies07]

I also think that the reason that Elon says they're going to be unveiling the Semi and the Bus next year,

My mouth dropped when I read this. We've read/talked about it would be years before a truck would come along because of the ramp up of the Model 3/next roadster/cheaper model. Amazed and excited they will show something next year because I live in Texas and a lot of people think they need their trucks to truck around in for truckin.

 

[Seesaw]

My only criticism is that it wasn't released during trading - it would of allowed for a positive market gut reaction which would of given the plan momentum and credibility.

The problem of releasing it after hours is the naysayers and shorts have time to build arguments against it

 

[SunCatcher]

Man, this dude is seriously ambitious. I think Elon Musk might actually be Nikola Tesla incarnate.

I do hope, as in SMP1, that this all does indeed come to be by the time the next 10 years are up. What a world this could be!

Inch by inch, step by step… panel by panel.

 

[yesla]

I was as excited and giddy as the next guy when I read the highly anticipated SMP2 - and I loved every word until the very end. It was everything I wanted to hear.

Then my excitement ended. cuz it sounded too perfect... then I started noticing some... holes... *cringe*

I hesitate spewing my negative thoughts into public domain... but... maybe I can get some of these points smashed back down so I dont have to think about it anymore...

1. For an outline, it read more like a fairy tale, complete with side stories. Where the first SMP had rebuttals and calculations to dispute the clearly wrong assumptions, this one... had a different narrative. SMP focuses on the core mission, thats it. SMP2 = SMP+ego+crack?. It is strangely detailed in some areas, and completely skips over others. which leads me to the next point.

2. M3 starts with ver.0.5? I love you Elon. I hope I'm wrong in assessing market perceptions... but 400k people just deposited for ver.0.5? I hate myself for every word that's coming out right now... but what kind of standard are we going to expect at launch?? Why include this detail in SMP2? T.T

3. TSLA + SCTY was 2 paragraphs =_=' no new info. doesnt address ANY of the hard questions asked by some of the harder core members on this board... not much coherency with the rest of the story... its just... there... Admittedly, SCTY was there from the very beginning in SMP with 2 paragraphs also...

4. Anyone else feeling that ego? Elon has achieved legendary status and deserves to talk however he wants... but this ego sounds like its masking some insecurity... Tesla started off with a mission to accelerate the advent of sustainable transportation. He even gave away their patents! thats the ultimate good guy move. But then SMP2 reads as if TESLA is going to dominate the world by brute (hippy x A.I.) force.
- It will take on Uber for sharing. and transform how car ownership works single handedly. No partnerships? what does that infrastructure look like? Will they provide the insurance? Who is liable for damages inside the car? - to address these concerns, that will necessarily mean that we will no longer have any privacy inside the cars too.... Does Tesla want to take on those problems that doesn't contribute to the core mission? I don't know...
- TESLA will make all vehicles for everyone from Semis to garbage trucks to bulldozers. in how many years will they get that capacity? after how many Giga factories? how many plants around the world? Tesla is going to eat the whole pie? that has got to be crack talking... right?


The tone of SMP was of a nerd, formulating a strategy to rescue a damsel in distress. The tone of SMP2 is of a jaded nerd that is bruised and tired of being picked on and is giving one last warning before releasing the Kraken. Maybe that is good. Playing the good guy did not generate sufficient good will to garner collaboration or even adoration from the general public. Maybe the only way to change the world is to be the villain. and crush all the enemies. People are weak. Give them a new choice and they will cower in fear. Take away the old choices, and they will rejoice the new saviour.
I'm already fully invested in team TESLA... I just wanted someone to crush my skepticism.

Thanks in advance for reading block of text.

 

[Xpert]

Biggest takeaway of the MP2 that people dont realize yet is the "stunning solar roof". If they could pull it off, which i have no doubt, the entire Solarcity purchase would make a whole lot of sense. I, for one, cant wait to replace my aging roof with this.

Perhaps the M3 will have a stunning glass solar roof as well.

 

[Electrifying]

Here is where I don't think people understand the danger.

Now with even routine office work and traditional hand/eye coordination jobs under threat, where will people go?

Eh personal trainers, Yoga instructors? Or massage specialists with a human touch? You know these engineers are prone to back aches and would rather prefer human fingers to massage chairs.

 

[MartinAustin]

Detractors are already weighing in.

AutoTrader's @MichKrebs: $TSLA Master Plan is a plan "w/ no timeframes, few specifics & no mention of how & when TSLA will be profitable."

Of course, what else would an ICE dealer say about the plan?

 

[anticitizen13.7]

2. M3 starts with ver.5? I love you Elon. I hope I'm wrong in assessing market perceptions... but 400k people just deposited for ver.5? I hate myself for every word that's coming out right now... but what kind of standard are we going to expect at launch?? Why include this detail in SMP2? T.T

No. The "v0.5" refers to the production line, not the product itself from my understanding. Elon was talking about making production lines: "the machine that builds the cars" or something like that, and wanting to increase vastly production efficiency.

3. TSLA + SCTY was 2 paragraphs =_=' no new info. doesnt address ANY of the hard questions asked by some of the harder core members on this board... not much coherency with the rest of the story... its just... there... Admittedly, SCTY was there from the very beginning in SMP with 2 paragraphs...

I agree with this partly, but I also didn't expect Elon to address how he planned to deal with SolarCity convertible notes in 2016, 2017, and 2018. A big overview plan generally won't have finance details.

4. Anyone else feeling that ego? Elon has achieved legendary status and deserves to talk however he wants... but this ego sounds like its masking some insecurity...

I did not get that impression. It seemed to me that Elon was giving us a look at the sort of far future.

- It will take on Uber for sharing. and transform how car ownership works single handedly. No partnerships? what does that infrastructure look like? Will they provide the insurance? Who is liable for damages inside the car? - to address these concerns, that will necessarily mean that we will no longer have any privacy inside the cars too.

I personally think that ride sharing will be a hard sell for most people. I keep equipment and items in my car that I wouldn't want to be stolen. I also don't want people hotboxing my car with pot or using it to pick up hookers. I don't think I would put my personal car up for ride sharing, and most of the people I know would not do so either.

 

[ggies07]

Inch by inch, step by step… panel by panel.

To quote one of my new favorite shows, Mr. Robot:

Elliot Alderson: Every day, we change the world, but to change the world in a way that means anything, that takes more time than most people have. It never happens all at once. It’s slow. It’s methodical. It’s exhausting. We don’t all have the stomach for it.

I think this sums up why people still don't get this company and it's main man........Elon set out to change the world ten years ago and did just that. It took time. Not 5 quarters. Not X number of deliveries. F*ck those numbers and speculation. It's happening before our very own eyes. WAKE UP money grabbers.

 

[larmor]

Even if they just announced a Tesla semi with highway only AP, that would be compelling.

No one has to share their car if they don't want to. But some people do and some drive for them such as Uber Lyft etc.

 

[Mike Smith]

You guys are crazy not to realize how high TSLA is going tomorrow. $15 at least. Lots of large investors who had heard that Tesla was potentially a trillion dollar company were waiting for this outline to be able to judge whether it could actually be true. After all, if the company could go up 30X why not wait until after finding out more and pay an inconsequential 5% extra. Truck is huge. Ride sharing is huge. Driverless electric semi is huge. Gigaparty coming with energy announcements. New long term investors piling in and shorts have to cover at same time. I`d actually be surprised to be up less than $20 tomorrow.

 

[Drumheller]

As for the stunning new solar... perhaps it is something that replaces tiles and shingles instead of being installed over the roof like current solar. That would probably be a game changer. Solar shingles / tiles.