The fact that they're planning a GF 2 that would be combined car/battery manufacturing is news.
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The fact that they're planning a GF 2 that would be combined car/battery manufacturing is news.
racer26
Active Member
It was a little light on the steak for my liking, given what was possible. Though watching the periscopes of the actual tour was pretty cool. It certainly appears that they're on the cusp of firing up the cell production line.
tinm
2020 Model S LR+ Owner
Given the sheer size of the final Gigafactory footprint, plus, the number of employees, now estimated by Elon to be 10,000, it seems to me that he has overlooked one thing: Hyperloop. There ought to be a Hyperloop within the building, or perhaps surrounding its periphery, with additional lines running out to Reno/Sparks and surrounding area. So employees can get from A to B in seconds. Of course, none of them would then need to drive their Model 3s, but hey...
SunCatcher
Member
Anyone thinking that the Gigafactory was just an empty shell filled with hype, can now belay that thought. Impressive how many cells, packs, and finished Power Walls and Power Packs are being produced there. Looked like a hell of a lot of finished product, ready for delivery. This factory is in operation folks. Up and running. Production is under way. Looks like a lot of steak to me. Impressive.
Elon Wonka and the Energy Factory.
This is Tesla Motors' version of landing a rocket on a moving target, if you ask me. What we are seeing is nothing less than a massive paradigm shift in the world of energy. And we are watching it happen before our eyes. I can't believe I live in a time where I can witness this.
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3Victoria
Active Member
Some points:
1. EM confirmed the pencils down. He is happy with the production team's approach. He said there may be tweaks if issues arise in testing, but there experience with S/X should lessen the chance of these. JS said there is a lot of cool innovation, which they cannot talk about. They are third generation.
2. Will saturate capacity at GF1, and then build ones in Europe and Asia(China).
3. Initially 1/3 stationary and 2/3 cars, but will eventually go to 50:50.
1. EM confirmed the pencils down. He is happy with the production team's approach. He said there may be tweaks if issues arise in testing, but there experience with S/X should lessen the chance of these. JS said there is a lot of cool innovation, which they cannot talk about. They are third generation.
2. Will saturate capacity at GF1, and then build ones in Europe and Asia(China).
3. Initially 1/3 stationary and 2/3 cars, but will eventually go to 50:50.
racer26
Active Member
I suppose I can agree with you. A year ago, it was a pile of steel in the desert.
SunCatcher
Member
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
Still looking for permission to copy a picture from Tesla Owners Worldwide FB group, but the stacked rows of PowerWalls and PowerPacks ready for shipping is meat though not something shown publicly so the media outlets have to get it from user accounts and pictures. This could actually be something mentioned on the Q2 conf call and if they don't mention it themselves some of the analysts really ought to ask about TE products status and expected revenue.
Btw as a side note, any chance the conglomerate of TMC TSLA share owners could elect a representative who gets on the ER call and gets to ask a question+followup too?
Btw as a side note, any chance the conglomerate of TMC TSLA share owners could elect a representative who gets on the ER call and gets to ask a question+followup too?
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Hyperloop is not mentioned in SMP 1 or 2, Elon doesn't talk about it anymore, it was just a diversion to combat the California High Speed Train (he wants ride sharing autonomous cars and buses to transport people in a much more flexible way).
RobStark
Well-Known Member
When Elon talked about Hyperloop he was very clear he was giving the Idea away for some other company to run with it. He did not have the time and said if no one grabbed the baton he might come back to it in a few years.
The California Not so High Speed Train that can 't travel very fast due to noise pollution and NIMBYism was a boondoggle from the beginning. Slowest "high speed" train in the world with the highest cost per mile.
mmd
Active Member
Powerwall and Powerpacks are not exactly new. They were to be shipping since last summer. Some company already installed a few powerpacks in Los Angeles. A few on TMC here have been speculating on $100M+ TE revenue for many quarters now. Check out this story published 1 year ago. Seems like deja vu to me. GF #2 coming soon then too.
Barely a week after Tesla's Powerwall battery was announced, it's sold-out to mid-2016
iMO, those finished Powerwalls at GF are the referral bonuses for the attendees.
I would have loved to hear the latest M3 reservation number though. Now we wait till ER day.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
I'm saying if Elon thought Hyperloop was an important piece of the puzzle in getting the world to transition to sustainable energy and transportation he would have had Tesla, SpaceX or a new company do it.
Mario Kadastik
Active Member
So here's a pic by @jvonbokel, those are nice stacks of finished goods waiting for deliveries. So I do hope we get some color on this in Q2 ER.
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RobStark
Well-Known Member
Yeah, he thinks it is a secondary or tertiary idea.
Not vaporware to preclude public mass transit so Tesla might take over the world.
sundaymorning
Active Member
JB's comment really showed how confident the Tesla team was in its Model3. He states that the GF was built way before the M3 reveal, when many people doubted that Tesla can sell M3 in large quantities. Nothing short of incredible.
Elon states "that the idea is to have at least a gigafactory in every continent, otherwise, the energy cost to transport the vehicle and logistics cost is too high." Looks like he wants a minimum of 7 GF.
Elon states "that the idea is to have at least a gigafactory in every continent, otherwise, the energy cost to transport the vehicle and logistics cost is too high." Looks like he wants a minimum of 7 GF.
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MartinAustin
Active Member
Very impressed by the videos that I have seen. Must surely result in a boost to the stock on Monday.
Disclaimer: I have said that for a great many things and seen the stock plummet (per "sell the news" theory)
Was happy to see the 21-70 batteries at last. (likely they were just empty canisters, but still)
Couple of questions I would like to get answered on the conference call -
1) a long time ago they said the Gigafactory was like an industrial park, and there would be many companies all under one roof, working on different types of processes - refining ore, battery manufacture, etc.. Tesla would be like the landlord. When quizzed about who these companies were, JB said "it's a little early to be getting into that just yet." So... now that we can see stuff getting built... who are the other companies? Or... have they changed tactic a bit and it's solely a Tesla-Panasonic venture?
2) since releasing the patents into zero-dollar licensing territory, I have been waiting to hear about any other manufacturer who has signed up to use Superchargers. IMO if anyone else does sign up to use them, it's more or less cementing Superchargers as a design that can prevail over ISO standards, and give Tesla a solid footing in the biz. But the more time passes... the less likely anyone is going to use them. What's the status of this?
Disclaimer: I have said that for a great many things and seen the stock plummet (per "sell the news" theory)
Was happy to see the 21-70 batteries at last. (likely they were just empty canisters, but still)
Couple of questions I would like to get answered on the conference call -
1) a long time ago they said the Gigafactory was like an industrial park, and there would be many companies all under one roof, working on different types of processes - refining ore, battery manufacture, etc.. Tesla would be like the landlord. When quizzed about who these companies were, JB said "it's a little early to be getting into that just yet." So... now that we can see stuff getting built... who are the other companies? Or... have they changed tactic a bit and it's solely a Tesla-Panasonic venture?
2) since releasing the patents into zero-dollar licensing territory, I have been waiting to hear about any other manufacturer who has signed up to use Superchargers. IMO if anyone else does sign up to use them, it's more or less cementing Superchargers as a design that can prevail over ISO standards, and give Tesla a solid footing in the biz. But the more time passes... the less likely anyone is going to use them. What's the status of this?
I saw the talk as likely telegraphing meat, if not meat itself.
SMP2 sounded like go expansively large and wildly ambitious (semis, new kind of bus, autonomous ride sharing,...), costs hard to get a handle on.
I think last night was, yes, we are going expansively large, but the product lineup is actually "keep it simple stupid" and not as expensive as widely speculated ... that is, 1) the new bus? based Model X platform, 2) how do you scale up? if one GF can make 1.5 million vehicles/year*, the next 3 continents we put GFs on will bring us to over 6 million/year, possibly far more, given Elon talks about 5 to 10 fold increases in factory efficiency and GF1 is version 0.5 out of 3 iterations.
* basic point I'm not 100% clear on... when Elon says GF now expected to have capacity to supply batteries for 1.5 million vehicles, triple earlier plan... this means batteries available for stationary storage will also triple, or that's the number of cars if all batteries went to auto? I'm about 95% sure it's the former as original plan was 50 gwh total, with 35 going to auto to allow for 500K vehicles per year, and now we are looking at potentially 150
GWH in 2020 from GF1.
SMP2 sounded like go expansively large and wildly ambitious (semis, new kind of bus, autonomous ride sharing,...), costs hard to get a handle on.
I think last night was, yes, we are going expansively large, but the product lineup is actually "keep it simple stupid" and not as expensive as widely speculated ... that is, 1) the new bus? based Model X platform, 2) how do you scale up? if one GF can make 1.5 million vehicles/year*, the next 3 continents we put GFs on will bring us to over 6 million/year, possibly far more, given Elon talks about 5 to 10 fold increases in factory efficiency and GF1 is version 0.5 out of 3 iterations.
* basic point I'm not 100% clear on... when Elon says GF now expected to have capacity to supply batteries for 1.5 million vehicles, triple earlier plan... this means batteries available for stationary storage will also triple, or that's the number of cars if all batteries went to auto? I'm about 95% sure it's the former as original plan was 50 gwh total, with 35 going to auto to allow for 500K vehicles per year, and now we are looking at potentially 150
GWH in 2020 from GF1.
I said 12-15 seats. Going from the information Musk has provided, my thoughts around the minibus are like this:
- Total length around 5.5 meters, 3 meter wheelbase, 1.25 meter front and rear overhang. Very boxy.
- 3.4 meter long raised floor between the wheels. Additional batteries, computers, A/C, etc is all packaged beneath the floor in the middle of the minibus.
- 4 rows of seats with 3 seats on each row on top of the raised floor. Seat pitch of around 85 cm.
- 1 meter rear cargo compartment. The cargo compartment has room for about 3 cubic meters of cargo, including bikes, skis, etc.
- 1 meter front passenger space. Basically an open area with room for two wheelchairs or strollers, and a really low floor. When the minibus stops, air suspension lowers the floor to 10 cm above the ground.
- Right side of the bus (LHD/RHT markets) has four falcon wing doors, one for the cargo area, one for the front passenger space, and two for two rows of seats each. Between each door you have a structural pillar.
- Of course, completely autonomous.
- Maybe 150 kWh battery capacity for 300-400 km range. Main battery pack is swap capable, additional 30-50 kWh pack is not.
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Runarbt
Active Member
Good guesses.
I dont think the battery need to be swap capable, as 300-400km should be more than most busses drive during a day?
A propper charging-system, and the busses will be ready for a New day With a full charge.
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