Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[ggr]

Re: voting triggered short squeeze, followed by a collapse as shares go back out to be loaned again. I just want to remind everyone that the "record date" (that is, the right to vote will be based on "shareholders of record on date xx/xx/2016") will be some time in advance of the actual vote, probably a week or two. And then the result might not be known for a day or two after that (although probably the following morning). So there will be a week or two of hiatus during which shares will be available to borrow, but the result of the vote is still not known. I have no idea what this will mean for the stock price, but I assume any runup will be before the record date. After that... someone stole my crystal ball (literally).

 

[maoing]

Yep. All just guesstimates.
I expect "in transit" cars will be down a few thousand to "2500" at end or Q3
Therefore, net boost to Q3 is 2500

Then in your view, the Q3 delivery could be 2000/week*12(weeks)+2500(boost) = 26500?

 

[FredTMC]

Anyone know when the 45 day "go shop" window ends on the SCTY acquistion?

 

[Lessmog]

Anyone know when the 45 day "go shop" window ends on the SCTY acquistion?

Sleepy, lazy and wildly guessing:
Since the announcement came on Aug 1 (?), count 45 days from that date as a first approximation?

 

[drinkerofkoolaid]

Would anything prevent a third company from making, let's say a $5 billion offer for a 20-49% stake in SolarCity, that allows Tesla to retain primary control and acquire the other 51-80% of the company for the amount Tesla offered? Or something similar.

 

[FredTMC]

Then in your view, the Q3 delivery could be 2000/week*12(weeks)+2500(boost) = 26500?

For Q3? Oh heck no... I'd be happy with 22k delivered. Thrilled with 23k

- There are inventory cars to be built for stores (i.e. AP2)

- Customers who refuse or delay delivery right at end-of qtr


For Q4, 26k or higher would be needed to approach 50k for 2nd half of 2016

Tesla has said production will be 2400/week in Q4

 

[Cobbler]

I just saw this Youtube video of an Elon Musk interview years ago on the market's reaction before Model S launch. Please have a look and you'll be amazed how similar today's situation is with Model 3.

 

[30seconds]

Would anything prevent a third company from making, let's say a $5 billion offer for a 20-49% stake in SolarCity, that allows Tesla to retain primary control and acquire the other 51-80% of the company for the amount Tesla offered? Or something similar.

they would have to do it with Tesla not out of the blue. Tesla has put an offer (that has been accepted by SCTY) to buy the entire company. The SCTY board is now looking to sell the entire company. I don't think that they could accept an offer that was contingent on Tesla agreeing to take a smaller portion than what was formally offered by TSLA

 

[phigment]

Sleepy, lazy and wildly guessing:
Since the announcement came on Aug 1 (?), count 45 days from that date as a first approximation?

Is that 45 business days?

 

[Lessmog]

Is that 45 business days?

ZZZZzzz

 

[Rarity]

Interestingly, while Musk has had an amazing track record in raising capital, I believe that he has had down rounds since that video.

 

[Drax7]

I just saw this Youtube video of an Elon Musk interview years ago on the market's reaction before Model S launch. Please have a look and you'll be amazed how similar today's situation is with Model 3.

The abuse from second rate minds is endless.
He should start treating these morons as such .
How he stays cool is remarkable.

 

[generalenthu]

A quick thought exercise on the dropping short interest with no share price move.

Broadly speaking there are 3 kinds of TSLA investors. Long only, short only and convert arb. Won't talk about the first 2 as their motivations are straightforward. Convert arb investors don't really care for what TSLA does for the most part. They only root for massive swings in tsla, preferably around their conversion price. Why so, is a bit tangential and irrelevant for now.

Now Tesla issued a good amount of this debt to fund growth. Most pertinently it issued 660 million in 2018 notes for a conversion price of ~125 per share, roughly the equivalent of 5.3 million shares.

By some estimates (too lazy to Google), about 80% of debt is typically held by arbs and is fully hedged. With sp ~225 (deep in the money), this requires the arbs to be short ~4 million shares to net out this exposure. This has obviously become an expensive proposition as borrow rates went up. So they have 2 options. Ask Tesla to convert their notes and close out their position. Afaik, this has not happened yet (Tesla got requests, but not sure they've acted on it). Or trade with a long only hedge fund that lets them swap their convertible notes for stock exposure. When this happens, short interest goes down, with no changes on anybody's economic exposure.

I suspect a bunch of this is happening. But some hedge funds who might be holding tsla would be reluctant to swap into converts, because they may not be able to vote their share, but would do so for the right discount if they especially think their point of view on scty merger is going to prevail.

I think if this is truly happening, the takeaway is to not be overly worried about the drop in short interest without a price move.

 

[stealthology]

..So, build it into your models, bears: Tesla will release additional AP hardware and a larger battery pack with increased range before the end of the year. This has been telegraphed for months...

Can you refer me to where has hinted towards new AP hardware this year? Thanks.

 

[esk8mw]

Can you refer me to where has hinted towards new AP hardware this year? Thanks.

Elon Musk did everything but confirm that Tesla Model 3 will be fully autonomous [Video]

 

[Papafox]

Takes more than 2 weeks for sea transit, closer to 4 weeks. Clearing custom and prep for delivery also usually takes longer, like 3 weeks.

BTW I heard from a friend of a friend in China who ordered a XP90D and heard his DS said that this model is currently not being produced due to some parts are being upgraded and Tesla doesn't want him to have a car that was paid top of the line but not top of the line in a few weeks. The DS doesn't know when production of XP90D will resume though. Are XP90D being produced in US now?

In order to answer your question and get a better idea of what is happening with Model X, I visited various X delivery threads to come up with this mosaic of what is going on:

U.S. deliveries:
Date X Type&seats Confirm date VIN # & date Production begin Est del date Location Link
8/1 75D 6 seats 6/23/16.......145xx ~ 7/15..~late Aug.........Early Sep....CA link Bags
8/1...........................144xx........~mid Aug.......LtAug/ErlySP.CA link Sri Kooturu
8/3 90D 7 seats 5/29/16.......118xx.......................... Aug 4 VA link XHokie
8/3 75D 6 seats 6/24/16.......133xx........Early Aug..........Late Aug PA link air2high
8/3 75D 6 seats 5/22/16.......132xx........Aug1 done Aug3.....Aug US link Dawgfan
8/4 75D 7/8/16................141xx...............Not yet ............MI link chossetoshrug
8/4 90D 6 seats 6/30/16.......145xx.........Aug 22............Sept 24 GA link hollytl
8/4 90D 7 seats 7/5/16........166xx.8/3.....Not yet............late Sep GA link tslamom
8/4 75D 6 seats 2/6/16........90xx.5/27......7/15..............Aug 6 CA link Priyank
8/5 90D 7 seats 5/29/16.......118xx............................Aug 4 VA link XHokie
8/5 90D 6 seats...............118xx.7/15.......................Aug 4 SC link passcore
8/6 75D 6 seats 8/6/16........170xx.8/6.....Not yet............Oct? NJ link 2virgule5
8/8 60D 6 seats..................7/20/16........7/21..........Oct/now lt Sep MD link Raska
8/8 60D 6 seats 7/24/16.......166xx.7/31......................September CA link BobCio
8/8 60D ....... 8/7/16........170xx 8/7.......................lt Sep-Oct OH link shawnclark
8/8 90D 6 seats 4/20/16........67xx.............................Aug 9 NC link mblanshard
8/9 ... . ....................123xx.~Aug 15.....................mid-Sep FL link Ramisanders
8/10 P90D 6 seats. 7/19/16...........7/19....Not yet ....................... NC link TeamBerry
8/10 75D 6 seats 5/23/16......122xx.6/26.........................Aug 19 GA link sheadxn
8/10 75D 6 seats 12/17/15.....141xx 7/16.........................Aug 13 AZ link wang5150
8/10 75D 6 seats 5/23/16......122xx 6/26.........................Aug 19 GA link sheadxn
Note: Time to build seems to be 7 days or less, sometimes just a couple days (big improvement)

European deliveries:
8/3 90D 4/5/16 128xx shipping wk of 8/1-8/8 Estonia link Mario
8/8 60D RT Hand Drive Xs will not be produced until Q4 UK link
8/11 P90DL Sept Neth

Brief conclusions:
* Sorry fallenone, can't find references to P90D U.S. recent deliveries
* Vin #s are being assigned at or near confirmation date, but substantial waits to beginning of production do exist
* Production seems to be smooth with times in production taking 2 to 7 days
* Owners appear mostly thrilled with their X vehicles and quality issues are reasonably low
* Some 60s may be delivered near end of Sept, but mostly we will see 75s and higher in Sept
* U.S. deliveries in Q3 mostly fit in 118xx-170xx range. European deliveries are scheduled
this month
* Not surprisingly, many U.S. and European deliveries will take place in September

Feel free to draw your own conclusions from this recent sampling of data

 

[Fallenone]

In order to answer your question and get a better idea of what is happening with Model X, I visited various X delivery threads to come up with this mosaic of what is going on:

U.S. deliveries:
Date X Type&seats Confirm date VIN # & date Production begin Est del date Location Link
8/1 75D 6 seats 6/23/16.......145xx ~ 7/15..~late Aug.........Early Sep....CA link Bags
8/1...........................144xx........~mid Aug.......LtAug/ErlySP.CA link Sri Kooturu
8/3 90D 7 seats 5/29/16.......118xx.......................... Aug 4 VA link XHokie
8/3 75D 6 seats 6/24/16.......133xx........Early Aug..........Late Aug PA link air2high
8/3 75D 6 seats 5/22/16 132xx Aug1 done Aug3 Aug US link Dawgfan
8/4 75D 7/8/16 141xx Not yet MI link chossetoshrug
8/4 90D 6 seats 6/30/16 145xx Aug 22 Sept 24 GA link hollytl
8/4 90D 7 seats 7/5/16 166xx 8/3 Not yet late Sep GA link tslamom
8/4 75D 6 seats 2/6/16 90xx 5/27 7/15 Aug 6 CA link Priyank
8/5 90D 7 seats 5/29/16 118xx Aug 4 VA link XHokie
8/5 90D 6 seats 118xx 7/15 Aug 4 SC link passcore
8/6 75D 6 seats 8/6/16 170xx 8/6 Not yet Oct? NJ link 2virgule5
8/8 60D 6 seats 7/20/16 7/21 Oct/now lt Sep MD link Raska
8/8 60D 6 seats 7/24/16 166xx 7/31 September CA link BobCio
8/8 60D 8/7/16 170xx 8/7 lt Sep-Oct OH link shawnclark
8/8 90D 6 seats 4/20/16 67xx Aug 9 NC link mblanshard
8/9 123xx ~Aug 15 mid-Sep FL link Ramisanders
8/10 P90D 6 seats 7/19/16 7/19 Not yet NC link TeamBerry
8/10 75D 6 seats 5/23/16 122xx 6/26 Aug 19 GA link sheadxn
8/10 75D 6 seats 12/17/15 141xx 7/16 Aug 13 AZ link wang5150
8/10 75D 6 seats 5/23/16 122xx 6/26 Aug 19 GA link sheadxn
Note: Time to build seems to be 7 days or less, sometimes just a couple days (big improvement)

European deliveries:
8/3 90D 4/5/16 128xx shipping wk of 8/1-8/8 Estonia link Mario
8/8 60D RT Hand Drive Xs will not be produced until Q4 UK link
8/11 P90DL Sept Neth

Brief conclusions:
* Sorry fallenone, can't find references to P90D U.S. recent deliveries
* Vin #s are being assigned at or near confirmation date, but substantial waits to beginning of production do exist
* Production seems to be smooth with times in production taking 2 to 7 days
* Owners appear mostly thrilled with their X vehicles and quality issues are reasonably low
* Some 60s may be delivered near end of Sept, but mostly we will see 75s and higher in Sept
* U.S. deliveries in Q3 mostly fit in 118xx-170xx range. European deliveries are scheduled
this month
* Not surprisingly, many U.S. and European deliveries will take place in September

Feel free to draw your own conclusions from this recent sampling of data

Wow thanks for the information! So maybe there is something going on.

 

[Drivin]

Drivin, when you offered this list of failed companies along with Bernie Madorf's name, you were playing the game of denotation vs. connotation..

Nope, you are missing the point.

Since this is a thread about price movements in a stock, not about a company's business practices, and I was responding to the idea of "some investors don't get big changes in tech" (or something like that). I was making the point that investors, whether it is in Webvan, Pets.com, Madoff, are all told some variation of "it is different this time" - and people chose to believe.

Sometime it is unbelievable (financial returns, a profitable model of shipping 50 pounds of low value dog food) and it doesn't work out, sometimes it is unbelievable (buy books online instead of going to a cozy bookstore and get what I want right away??) and it works out great.

And of course, this pre-dates the dotcom bust. There is always someone pitching something related to major change, it is different this time. I find it odd that people are so dismissive and negative towards people who "just don't get it" when the markets are filled with examples of failed efforts.

Quite simply, to illustrate your point, you chose the worst possible examples, examples which focused on companies with a lack of demand for their products, companies that could not execute with a reasonable gross margin, or an individual who set out from square one to achieve personal enrichment through a clearly fraudulent business model.

But that is exactly the point. Given the Monday morning quarterback view of what you said, of course no one would invest in any of that now. But, surprise, BILLIONS, were invested in all of those ventures. The investments were happily made because "it would be different this time".

 

[MitchJi]

If you guys see a vote triggered squeeze happening, and you are highly confident that the SP will fall after the vote it might make sense to rethink that strategy. If the "squeeze" consists of the SP gradually easing up by $5 or $10 per share then "just riding it all out" probably makes sense.

OTOH if you see a rapid increase after the voting date is announced of (pick a number) $30-$150 , or more "just riding it all out" because " I'm a long-term investor" is probably a very foolish decision. Why not sell your shares near the peak and repurchase them when it dips or at least buy some puts?!

This is why a (sudden) squeeze won't happen. Even the faithful have itchy sell fingers.

You do realize that my post was in response to two users who said "just riding it all out" because " I'm a long-term investor"? And how many people have said they would sell when the SP hits $1k, or when someone pries the shares from their dead fingers? That's on a ST.

IMO the bottom line is that this merger is unprecedented. Two companies merging that both have an extremely high number of shorts. Which means that nobody knows (bulls or bears) what is going happen. If this plays out the way we think it might that's a huge advantage. In fact that's probably what makes it possible, because if enough shorts see it coming it won't happen.

SEC approval process can take anywhere from 2-4 months. It really depends on how much they dig into the filings. Note that a lot of things can be sped up in life but SEC approval is not one of them. There are many rounds of comments back and forth, potentially in-person hearings, etc. Given the scrutiny placed upon Tesla generally I wouldn't be surprised to see it near the 3-4 month mark.

Once approval is in hand the vote can follow shortly thereafter. Tesla will issue a press release announcing a (probably) future record date (a week or so out is my guess) and a vote shortly following the record date, like 1-2 weeks after. Wild guess - everything is concluded by mid December.

Re: voting triggered short squeeze, followed by a collapse as shares go back out to be loaned again. I just want to remind everyone that the "record date" (that is, the right to vote will be based on "shareholders of record on date xx/xx/2016") will be some time in advance of the actual vote, probably a week or two.

Someone who looked it up, said that Tesla is required to give between 10-60 days notice. I think they could give 10-60 days notice and make the shareholders record date the same as the shareholders meeting date which is when the will vote occur.

But you made a great point. The thing that will cause the squeeze, is the date that shareholders need to own the shares in order to vote. What happens at a normal shareholders meeting if you own shares on the record date and sell them before the meeting? Same rule should apply here. So I think that the record date, not the vote date is the crucial date. Thanks!

And then the result might not be known for a day or two after that (although probably the following morning). So there will be a week or two of hiatus during which shares will be available to borrow, but the result of the vote is still not known. I have no idea what this will mean for the stock price, but I assume any runup will be before the record date. After that... someone stole my crystal ball (literally).

I don't think that the results of the vote are an important factor to the "squeeze effect.."

 

[Krugerrand]

We won't see any mass production in July 2017.

Glad to see you repeating what Elon Musk already told us. July 1, 2017 is the deadline for suppliers. Any who fail to make the deadline will be getting axed. Any internal misses of that date will initiate a series of 'restructuring'. (read some people are going to have their head on a platter) Tesla NEVER said mass production in July 2017, so don't think you've made some bold prediction.