Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[stealthology]

The moment the merger is finalized Tesla will be a huge move...

Does anyone have an educated guess as to approx. when the vote will happen/deal finalized? Thanks.

 

[Papafox]

Nope, you are missing the point.

Since this is a thread about price movements in a stock, not about a company's business practices, and I was responding to the idea of "some investors don't get big changes in tech" (or something like that). I was making the point that investors, whether it is in Webvan, Pets.com, Madoff, are all told some variation of "it is different this time" - and people chose to believe.

Sometime it is unbelievable (financial returns, a profitable model of shipping 50 pounds of low value dog food) and it doesn't work out, sometimes it is unbelievable (buy books online instead of going to a cozy bookstore and get what I want right away??) and it works out great.

And of course, this pre-dates the dotcom bust. There is always someone pitching something related to major change, it is different this time. I find it odd that people are so dismissive and negative towards people who "just don't get it" when the markets are filled with examples of failed efforts.



But that is exactly the point. Given the Monday morning quarterback view of what you said, of course no one would invest in any of that now. But, surprise, BILLIONS, were invested in all of those ventures. The investments were happily made because "it would be different this time".

My point is that the examples you selected were inappropriate for comparison with Tesla using your "it's different this time" thesis or any other argument. You're basically saying, "Look, here are companies that went under because investors thought that the companies had more going for them than really existed. The same could happen at Tesla." Don't you see how weak this argument is? It could be made of most growth companies. The similarities between Tesla and the companies you listed are just too thin to be worth significant consideration.

 

[Ulmo]

I just saw this Youtube video of an Elon Musk interview years ago on the market's reaction before Model S launch. Please have a look and you'll be amazed how similar today's situation is with Model 3.

$17 IPO

Elon in above May 2011 video: "... spot market value of the constituent materials in the car ..."

This man has been speaking with clarity for the whole time. Then he says [usual "um" & "you know" type pieces removed]:

"I would point out that if you look at all of the companies that I've been a key part in creating, every single round, in every single company, every time we've sold stock in one of those companies, every single round has been an up round. That's about 32 rounds over 5 companies since 1995 without exception. So if you're a short seller, consider those odds." Granted, this was back in 2011.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Ha, Michigan Treasury Department upped their TSLA position by 224% in Q2. It would be pretty smart to allow Tesla to sell their cars in Michigan as well, as it might help their investment. May be they just trying to avoid an appearance of impropriety.

Michigan Treasury Dept. Takes Larger Stake in Tesla (TSLA)

 

[Ulmo]

Hahahahahahaha! I was just listening to

, and after 8:48 when the most profound announcement in a century for the energy and environmental sectors was made, she said at 13:15, in the most dilapidated, uncaring, and disinterested tone, "Thank yewwwwoouə ....". The functionaries back east just have no idea.

Oh, and P.S., I just can't stand the accent of that guy with the horrible accent. That's the third time I've said it. Can I hire a translator? Probably outside my budget I'm pretty sure I'm talking about Lyndon, but not 100%. I'm still getting acquainted with Solar City.

 

[srini]

Ha, Michigan Treasury Department upped their TSLA position by 224% in Q2. It would be pretty smart to allow Tesla to sell their cars in Michigan as well, as it might help their investment. May be they just trying to avoid an appearance of impropriety.

Michigan Treasury Dept. Takes Larger Stake in Tesla (TSLA)

 

[SunCatcher]

View attachment 189724

Oh, so this news was the final straw for you? Or... grasping at straws are you? It's not easy being short. Well, you were warned…

Short sellers take notice: Tesla is building that tsunami you've been hearing about. Run away! Tsunami evacuation zone!

Warning! Staring at the Sun causes blindness! The Sun is a sacred object, and must be treated as such. Those foolish enough to disregard these warnings will be burned to a crisp with a magnifying glass.

 

[sub]

I agree inside EV is very good on the monthly US deliveries estimates. Have been pretty consistent for many months so far.

Not to nitpick, but how can inside EV's monthly estimates be confirmed to be "consistent" when Tesla does not break down its quarterly deliveries into months? You can assume they are correct by comparing the entire qtr, but you should know what happens when you assume. Just sayin.

The 100k plus people that put down ~$1000 reservations before seeing the Model 3 prototype are very much believers and bleeding edge early adopters that can't afford a $70k car.

Let's not confuse "waiting for model 3" with "can't afford model S/X". I could "afford" both an S and X (1 of each), much more than others I've seen buy just one on this forum Based on their stated income level, but have chose to wait for model 3 for multiple reasons. I've got 2 pre reveal model 3 reservations.

 

[Papafox]

Looking into the future, I see Oct 1-3 as perhaps the next big catalyst, should Tesla manage to deliver something greater than 20,000 vehicles in the quarter. The key will be pulling enough demand levers to keep the factory humming at full capacity.

The really cool catalyst this fall should be the Model 3 secondary reveal, which I suggest will be held in late October or early November. Why then? The current referral program ends Oct 15, and one of the top prizes for that program is an invitation for two to the next Tesla event. It is entirely possible that Autopilot 2.0 could appear before the event, because Tesla could likely use the boost in sales that AP 2.0 can deliver. Alternatively, Tesla might announce that the triple camera is now installed in all new Teslas and wiring harnesses for AP 2.0 are already installed in all Teslas currently under construction. The recent Electrek article on AP 2.0 suggest that AP 2.0 hardware is coming "sooner than you might think." So, perhaps we see the sensors and cameras for AP 2.0 appear fairly soon on new vehicles and the fully-functioning system comes later. Personally, I would rather receive the AP 2.0 hardware on a vehicle and wait a couple months for functionality than jump into AP 1.0 harware and use it immediately. The ability to achieve AP 2.0 functionality will be an immediate demand lever of significant proportions, even if the functionality of the system follows months later. After all, AP 1.0 hardware preceded autopilot lane-keeping functionality by many months and yet the hardware still managed to be a tremendous demand lever.

So, what do we see at the Model 3 secondary reveal? I'm guessing we see heads-up display for speed and perhaps for some autopilot functions too. These will, of course, appear on S and X as options well before Model 3 is released. We'll see the final Model 3 interior with refinements that will also be offered as options right away on Model S and Model X. We'll likely get a demonstration of the tremendous progress with autopilot, too.

Thus, I rather believe we'll see AP 2.0 hardware come out before the whole AP 2.0 system is functional, the hardware by itself will serve as a potent demand lever, and we'll see the fully functioning AP 2.0 demonstrated at the late October, early November Model 3 event.

 

[RobStark]

Let's not confuse "waiting for model 3" with "can't afford model S/X". I could "afford" both an S and X (1 of each), much more than others I've seen buy just one on this forum Based on their stated income level, but have chose to wait for model 3 for multiple reasons. I've got 2 pre reveal model 3 reservations.

Yes, the "not everybody" indignation.

Their are quite a few current Tesla owners that are on the reservation list.

But the vast majority of people on the reservation list are people that can not comfortably afford the Model S/X and have chosen instead to wait for the 3.

 

[3Victoria]

My guess is that new AP hw will appear soon in S/X. The October event will be release of AP2.0. I think the Model 3 second reveal will be at the end of March on about the anniversary of the first reveal, and show an enhanced reality AP HUD.

 

[Mario Kadastik]

For the VIN counters, the VIN assignment within days of order being confirmed might hold for US, but as recently as in Q2 it took far longer for us in EU. We ordered our latest P90DL in March (1339XX) with the order confirming on 14.03. If I remember right we didn't see a VIN until ~late April early May and the delivery was in mid-June. For the Model X the order confirmed on 5th of April and I got a VIN in late July (128XX) with latest data being that the car will be in Tilburg mid-September (it's produced and on its way to the ship, should be loaded on Maersk Montana this week and then begin its journey to Netherlands as per my DS). From my tracking of the ship it's going to arrive in Houston harbour tomorrow and my guess is it'll pick up Teslas and head to Tilburg. Will see what it does over the weekend

 

[RobStark]

I think the Model 3 second reveal will be at the end of March on about the anniversary of the first reveal, and show an enhanced reality AP HUD.

But Elon said Model 3 Reveal 2.0 is toward the end of this year.

To coincide with the arrival of the Bolt EV at select California Chevrolet dealers.

 

[3Victoria]

In his Recode interview EM was asked if the Model would come with autonomous driving, and he said that he would have another Tesla event later this year (@39:30 @

) - and it would be the obvious thing. So my guess is AP2.0 and 100-battery, with Model3 2nd reveal later.

 

[JBRR]

Tesla Autopilot 2.0: next gen Autopilot powered by more radar, new triple camera, some equipment already in production

 

[Lessmog]

Looking into the future, I see Oct 1-3 as perhaps the next big catalyst, should Tesla manage to deliver something greater than 20,000 vehicles in the quarter. The key will be pulling enough demand levers to keep the factory humming at full capacity.

The really cool catalyst this fall should be the Model 3 secondary reveal, which I suggest will be held in late October or early November. Why then? The current referral program ends Oct 15, and one of the top prizes for that program is an invitation for two to the next Tesla event. It is entirely possible that Autopilot 2.0 could appear before the event, because Tesla could likely use the boost in sales that AP 2.0 can deliver. Alternatively, Tesla might announce that the triple camera is now installed in all new Teslas and wiring harnesses for AP 2.0 are already installed in all Teslas currently under construction. The recent Electrek article on AP 2.0 suggest that AP 2.0 hardware is coming "sooner than you might think." So, perhaps we see the sensors and cameras for AP 2.0 appear fairly soon on new vehicles and the fully-functioning system comes later. Personally, I would rather receive the AP 2.0 hardware on a vehicle and wait a couple months for functionality than jump into AP 1.0 harware and use it immediately. The ability to achieve AP 2.0 functionality will be an immediate demand lever of significant proportions, even if the functionality of the system follows months later. After all, AP 1.0 hardware preceded autopilot lane-keeping functionality by many months and yet the hardware still managed to be a tremendous demand lever.

So, what do we see at the Model 3 secondary reveal? I'm guessing we see heads-up display for speed and perhaps for some autopilot functions too. These will, of course, appear on S and X as options well before Model 3 is released. We'll see the final Model 3 interior with refinements that will also be offered as options right away on Model S and Model X. We'll likely get a demonstration of the tremendous progress with autopilot, too.

Thus, I rather believe we'll see AP 2.0 hardware come out before the whole AP 2.0 system is functional, the hardware by itself will serve as a potent demand lever, and we'll see the fully functioning AP 2.0 demonstrated at the late October, early November Model 3 event.

Thanks Papa! Comprehensive and extremely helpful. I think you're right, too.

 

[schonelucht]

For the VIN counters, the VIN assignment within days of order being confirmed might hold for US, but as recently as in Q2 it took far longer for us in EU. We ordered our latest P90DL in March (1339XX) with the order confirming on 14.03. If I remember right we didn't see a VIN until ~late April early May and the delivery was in mid-June. For the Model X the order confirmed on 5th of April and I got a VIN in late July (128XX) with latest data being that the car will be in Tilburg mid-September (it's produced and on its way to the ship, should be loaded on Maersk Montana this week and then begin its journey to Netherlands as per my DS). From my tracking of the ship it's going to arrive in Houston harbour tomorrow and my guess is it'll pick up Teslas and head to Tilburg. Will see what it does over the weekend

Thanks. It would be most appreciated if you entered your info in the online google spreadsheet, also for the next cars you will order! More data points, especially for international orders are always welcome. For what it is worth, there are about 10-15 overseas entries currently in the list around your order time and they all got their VIN within days. But exceptions do happen, even to US customers. Most of the time there is technical issue with the website not showing the right data and a call to a DS magically fixes it. Model X European VINs were still handed out in batches in the first half of this year so there your experience is totally normal.

 

[pGo]

Problem with Electrek report is that it fuels discussion and anticipation among all followers including potential buyers and shareholders. If the report is not accurate or at least the timing is not accurate, Tesla gets impacted negatively.

Electrek was the one who wrote an article about internal sources saying Tesla reached 2000/week in mid May and that contributed many in here including myself to get a rosy outlook in Q2 deliveries. In reality, Tesla said they reached about 2000/week exiting Q2.

 

[McKricas]

Regarding Autopilot 2.0 I think the comments from Jen-Hsun Huang on 16Q2 Results Earnings Call can be very informative as I believe the next processor for AP2.0 will be from NVIDIA.

It is known that the relation between Nvidia and Tesla have been of many years and also Elon and Jen-Hsun are very close friends. Jen-Hsun was one of the firsts persons to have a signature Model X and recently the first AI supercomputer DGX-1 that Nvidia produced was delivered to OpenAI.

Also, in his words there are subtle references to Tesla and I think he confirmed a presentation of a new "autopilot" system this year too.

Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director
We've just started this quarter shipping DRIVE PX 2. (..) let me tell you what DRIVE PX 2 is. DRIVE PX 2, of course, is a processor. It's the DRIVE PX 2 version with just one single processor, with just Parker, and our Tegra processor, and optionally with discrete GPUs, you could literally build a car with autopilot capability, or an AI co-pilot capability, all the way to self-driving car capability. And it is able to do sensor fusion. It's able to do SLAM, which is localization and mapping, detection using deep neural nets of the environment in a surround matter, all of the cameras around the car all feeding into the processor, and the DRIVE PX processor doing real-time inferencing of surround cameras, all the way to the actual planning and driving of the car, all done in this one car computer, this one car AI supercomputer.

And so this quarter we started shipping them to all of our partners and developers so that they can start developing their software and their systems around our computer and on top of our software stack.

Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director
we believe that building a autonomous driving car, a self driving car is a pile of software, and it's really complicated software. It's really, really complicated software. And it's not like one company is going to do it. And it's also not logical that large, great companies who are refining their algorithms and the capabilities of their self-driving cars over the course of the next two decades can outsource to someone the self-driving car stack. We've always felt that self-driving cars is a software problem and that large companies need to be able to own their own destiny. And that's the reason why DRIVE PX 2 is an OpenStack, and it's an open platform, so that every car company can build their self-driving car on top of it, number one.

Number two. The DRIVE PX 2 architecture is scalable, and the reason for that is because automatic braking and autopilot on an highway, and a virtual co-pilot and a completely autonomous self-driving car, a self-driving truck, a geofenced autonomous shuttle, a completely autonomous taxi, all of these platforms cannot be solved by one chip. It's just not even logical. The computation necessary to do it is so diverse. And the more digits of accuracy or the more digits of precision towards safety that you would like to have in dealing with all of the unexpected circumstances, the more nines you would like to have, if you will, the more computation you have to do. Just as voice recognition, the amount of computation necessary for voice recognition over the last just four years or five years has increased by a 100 times, but notice how precise and how accurate voice recognition has become. And image recognition, circumstance recognition, context recognition, all of that is going to require just an enormous amount of computation. And so we believe that scalable platforms is necessary. Number two.

And then number three, detection. Computer vision and detection, object detection, is just one tiny sliver of the entire autonomous driving problem. It's just one tiny sliver. And we've always said that autonomous vehicles, self-driving cars, is really an AI computing problem. It's a computing problem because the processors needs not just detection but also computation. The CPU matters, the GPU matters, the entire system architecture matters. And so the entire computation engine matters. Number two, computing is not just a chip problem, it's largely a software problem. And the body of software necessary for the entire system software stack, if you would, the operating system of a self-driving real-time supercomputer doesn't exist.

Most supercomputers are best-effort supercomputers. They run a job as fast as they can until they're done. But that's not good enough for a self-driving car. This supercomputer has to run in real time and it has to react the moment it sees that there is danger in the way, and best effort doesn't cut it. You need it to be a real-time supercomputer, and the world's never built a real-time supercomputer before. And that's what DRIVE PX 2 is all about, a real-time supercomputer for surround autonomous AI. And so that's the focus that we have, that's the direction that we've taken, and I think what you're seeing is that the market is trying to react to that. But maybe as they go further and further into autonomous driving that they're discovering, that the problems are related to the type of problems that we're seeing, and that's the reason why DRIVE PX is a computer, not a smart camera.

Rajvindra S. Gill - Needham & Co. LLC
Sir, exactly. Good. A question, Jen-Hsun, on the DRIVE PX 2, so my understanding as you described it, it's one scalable architecture from the cockpit to ADAS, to mapping, to autonomous driving. But I'm curious to see how that kind of compares to the approach that some of your competitors are taking with respect to providing, I guess, different solutions for different levels of the ADAS systems, whether it's level 1, level 2, level 3, specifically with the V2X communication where for level 4 autonomous driving you're going to need six to 20 different radar units, three to six different cameras, LiDAR. I'm just trying to square how your approach is different from some of your competitors in the semiconductor space.

Jen-Hsun Huang - Co-Founder, President, CEO & Director
Yeah. Good question. There's no way to square and there's no reason to square, and you're not going to find one answer. And the reason why you're not going to find one answer is because nobody knows exactly how to get it done. We all have intuitions and we all have beliefs about how we're going to be able to ultimately solve the long-term, fully autonomous vehicle, that wherever I am, the car I step into, the automobile we step into is completely autonomous, and it has AI inside and out. And it's just an incredible experience. But we're not there yet. And all of these companies have slightly – not all but many companies have slightly different visions of the future. Some people believe that the path to the future is fully autonomous right away in a geofenced area that has been fully mapped in advance.

Some people believe that you can use it just for highway autopilot as a first starting point, and work quickly towards fully autonomy. Some people believe that the best way to do that is through shuttles and trucks. So you see a lot of different visions out there. And I think all of those visions are coming from smart people doing smart things, and they're targeting different aspects of transportation. I think there's a fallacy that transportation in every single country, in every single form is exactly the same. It just doesn't work that way. And so there's technology insight and then there's market insight, and there's a technology vision versus your entry point. And I think that's where all of the squaring doesn't happen. And so you're solving for problems that – you're solving for a simple equation that won't happen.

However, there's one thing that we believe absolutely will happen. We are absolutely certain that AI is going to be involved in this endeavor, that finally with deep learning and finally with AI that we believe we have the secret sauce necessary to break these puzzles, and to solve these puzzles over the period of time; number one. Number two, we believe unquestionably that depending on the problem you want to solve, you need a different amount of computational capability. We believe unambiguously this is a software problem, and that for the largest of transportation companies, they need to own their own – they're going to need – own their own software in collaboration with you, but they're not going to let you do it and keep it as a black box.

We believe unambiguously that this is a computing problem, that this is a real-time supercomputing problem; that it's not just about a special widget, but computation is necessary. Processors, a computer system, system software, enormous amount of operating system capability, is necessary to build something like this. It is a massive software problem.

Otherwise, we would have done it already. And so I think that you're going to see this year the beginnings of a lot of those, of some very visionary and really quite exciting introductions. But in the next year and the year after that, I think you're going to see more and more and more. I think this is the beginning, and we're working with some really, really amazing people to get this done.

 

[winfield100]

Yes, the "not everybody" indignation.
Their are quite a few current Tesla owners that are on the reservation list.
But the vast majority of people on the reservation list are people that can not comfortably afford the Model S/X and have chosen instead to wait for the 3.

some of us could have afforded an S on a moderate stretch, but circumstances intervened. almost being retired for one with kids still in college, a slightly smaller length and width vehicle for 'just us 2' and the anticipation of integrating with PV 4 EV, batteries for microgrid/nanogrid/VPP smart inverter, (a total package).
At my retirement party in March, 2 people, completely unsolicited, started gushing at me about the "cool new model 3 tesla is coming out with" that i was surprised by their enthusiasm.
there is a pent up hidden demand as neither of them reserved a 3 (yet) but will.
a data point i suspect may be buoying the stock price. (and a nanogrid/battery/etc will help the next time there is a "Snowmageddon and Snowpocalypse (winter) or Derecho (summer) " that kills the grid for a week or so in the DC area)
this is slitely OT, but better than a picture of "straws"