I would be quite OK with it if the MMs manipulated the stock price to that value by tomorrow closing ...
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I would be quite OK with it if the MMs manipulated the stock price to that value by tomorrow closing ...
Muted by @tweetermeyer in less than 3 hours. He still couldn't justify the main number behind his production cap limit, even posted the wrong calcuation for VOC hoping to throw people off the track. What a loser.
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I would be quite OK with it if the MMs manipulated the stock price to that value by tomorrow closing ...
Tomorrow is only weeklies expiring. I don't see max pain having much influence mañana.
So he posted something about the emissions factor of the paint being amount of VOCs to get a gallon of solids onto the final product. He then gives a bogus example:
E.W. Niedermeyer on Twitter
Assume Tesla is still using BASF Cathoguard 800 e-coat, which has less than 1% solvents. Likely they are still using this paint, as it is one of the top paints available to OEMs, especially for low VOCs. So here's the MSDS sheet:
http://worldaccount.basf.com/wa/msds/showpdf/36574200_16003536_-24
Relative density is 1.04, so the weight of a gallon of this paint is 8.35 lbs x 1.04 = 8.68 pounds.
According to the MSDS, the non water, non-binder, non-solvent portion of the paint is 35-45%, so we'll take an average of 40%. That's the paint solids. 1% is solvent according to BASF, so the solvent weight in a gallon of paint is 0.0868 pounds.
He's saying 30% overspray/waste. I don't think that's accurate for an e-coat process, but let's go with that. So to get 1 gallon of paint solids on the car, we're talking 3.57 gallons of paint (40% * 70% = 28% paint solids on the car per gallon of paint) That's then 0.310 pounds of VOCs per gallon of applied coating (gac).
0.310 pounds of VOC per gac is a far cry from 4.8. Even if you take that a gallon might actually be 2.5% propylene glycol monobutyl ether, then that's 0.775 pounds of VOC per gac. Again, still very far from 4.8.
It blows away his entire premise.
The permit then provides for 1.5 million gallons of gacs/year using the 2.5% solvent number. His chart doesn't go that high, but the highest one is at 500,000 annual auto production for what seems like about 650,000 gac/year. So Tesla's permit allows probably for well over 1 million cars at Fremont.
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all opinions welcome. I'd only suggest that after 2 years trading in a box that you'd accept the possibility of further and significant decline... if you don't than you are subjecting yourself to potentially ending up the "idiot".
TSLA End of Month Sale! Hurry, Quantities are limited!
Tired of paying regular prices for Tesla stock? Does even $210 seem a bit out of reach for your adding shares in preparation for the third quarter delivery numbers weekend?
How does $202 sound? Maybe even $201 or lower! Yes investors, our good friends in the TSLA shorting community have bent over backwards this week to engineer a TSLA sale like you've never before seen. This might be the last opportunity in your lifetime to buy TSLA for less than $200 if the stock falls that far in the morning.
Disclaimer:
This sale can be discontinued at any time and likely will be discontinued well before the close of business on Friday. Quantities are limited. This discount sale of TSLA stock IS NOT endorsed by Elon Musk or the management of Tesla. All sales are final. Even greater savings may be available through purchase of SCTY shares. For more information, check with your broker.
Tired of paying regular prices for Tesla stock? Does even $210 seem a bit out of reach for your adding shares in preparation for the third quarter delivery numbers weekend?
How does $202 sound? Maybe even $201 or lower! Yes investors, our good friends in the TSLA shorting community have bent over backwards this week to engineer a TSLA sale like you've never before seen. This might be the last opportunity in your lifetime to buy TSLA for less than $200 if the stock falls that far in the morning.
Disclaimer:
This sale can be discontinued at any time and likely will be discontinued well before the close of business on Friday. Quantities are limited. This discount sale of TSLA stock IS NOT endorsed by Elon Musk or the management of Tesla. All sales are final. Even greater savings may be available through purchase of SCTY shares. For more information, check with your broker.
I took advantage of the sale today. Hope for quick flip after the announcement. I'm guessing SCTY won't react as much to the delivery so that will be longer term play which i loaded up too.
If Solar City kisses $19.00 again I'm loading up. Why it's still trading at a discount is beyond me.
Also, love the A8. I had a 2004 and 2007 A8L. Other than them being over-engineered turds that would break down if you looked at them sideways, they were incredible machines. I miss my B&O system.
racer26
Active Member
If the market were sane, it should. The merger is all but a done deal at this point (come on, you think TSLA would've hired a CAO from a solar company and SCTY would have changed its management the way it has if it wasn't basically a done deal?). That means the two should trade in lockstep at 0.11, less whatever "risk of non-merger" factor you choose.
Sadly, you're right, it probably wont, because the market is insane. Which is exactly why I didn't sell off my Oct 7 TSLA 205 calls to buy more SCTY when it was $17.
stealthology
Member
Wouldn't it be reasonable to assume SCTY would react roughly in conjunction with TSLA? Assuming TSLA rises on deliveries, couldn't this be interpreted by many as a greater chance the merger goes through?
Also- curious, how are you positioning with SCTY? I'm in some J'17's. My risk appetite is holding strikes of mainly 20's and some 21's, 22's, and a bit of 26's for the hell of it. Still unsure of how long I'll hold these if things go well next week.
I wonder how low the discount will get as time progresses. Obviously there's bound to be SOME discount before the results are announced.
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MartinAustin
Active Member
Earthquake advisory for parts of Southern Califonia
Earthquake risk for southern California (further south than Fremont, but still).
Roll on Vehicle Assembly Factory #2... so we don't have to worry about earthquakes.
Earthquake risk for southern California (further south than Fremont, but still).
Roll on Vehicle Assembly Factory #2... so we don't have to worry about earthquakes.
I have been worried about the split in pricing between SCTY and TSLA. One of the theories rattling around in my head is that SCTY is trading at the price that TSLA would have been trading at w/o the effect of the merger voting record date short squeeze. In other words, TSLA "should" be trading at 172-180 without the short squeeze. Of course, by the time the market really found out the record date, it was enthralled by the possibility of a positive Q3 and the price hasn't come down... and there just aren't enough buyers of SCTY to close the gap either, as there is still a risk that the vote ends up being no.
I do think the merger goes through regardless of the Q3 numbers, but the gap will likely close faster if TSLA Q3 results are good.
I do think the merger goes through regardless of the Q3 numbers, but the gap will likely close faster if TSLA Q3 results are good.
stealthology
Member
Didn't the discount between TSLA and SCTY really begin to fade AFTER the record date (past week)?
I see what you're saying, but I think we should keep in mind the market is often wrong. 36% spread becoming 11% in a week or so? Tesla rocketing from 140 to almost double that in a few short months?
100% agree. Question is how much will it close without the official results. For those with SCTY J17 options, it might be worth unloading if the discount gets too small (time value loss).
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Has anyone tried tweeting this info to Elon? I would love to be able to port over Android Auto to my Model 3 (in a couple of years time
Kernel is not GPL v3 so they can continue to deny you this right without violating anything.
@tander et al:
Having slept on the matter, I begin to suspect we are taking about different kinds of options here.
The kind that the S-4/A Q/A mentions would be promises made out by the company, which they here promise to honor.
But then there are calls, puts and LEAPs -- other promises to buy or sell shares, made out not by the company. Those, I'm not sure who guarantees. Maybe the Market Maker, maybe the individual selling those options. (I never took that course.) It seems possible that one might want to just pocket the money and hide, rather than fulfilling the deal, if it can be done with low risk.
TL/DR:
The question of what happens to SCTY options after the merger remains open. Sorry for any confusion I spread!
Oct 3rd at the latest. Insideevs will have their estimate out by Oct 2nd, so Tesla can't take too long with the official numbers.
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