Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[stealthology]

Do you all expect an unveiling of GAAP profitability to have a greater impact on share price than the deliveries # did (~5%)? For the remainder of the year, I think this is by far the biggest thing that can give a meaningful boost in the right direction. It's really the only reason I'm holding shorter term calls.

IMO I see little downside risk from here, but I'm really wondering about realistic upside potential from now until end of year. I could be totally wrong, but it seems like we'll need some steak to blow past what seems like a stubborn 215.

 

[Papafox]

Fidelity has plenty of shares...

Available to Short: 697,781 Shares
Est. Annual Interest Rate: 14.000%

Interesting. Since IB has about 200,000 shares to short that are not being touched, I suppose Fidelity has concluded there's no harm in making additional shares available because demand for shares to short is presently lower than available shares to short. On the other hand, available shares to short are scarce enough to justify a rather high interest rate. Perhaps Fidelity is going to ration the shares to short in an attempt to maintain a fairly high interest rate. We'll see.

 

[erha]

What happens if we buy SCTY options and Tesla acquires SolarCity?

Don't really know what's happening right now. I didn't intend this to be a joke, but I guess I'm happy that it made some of you laugh. I'm seriously wondering what happens if you were to buy J17 SCTY call options and Tesla aqcuires SolarCity. Will they simply just be converted to J17 TSLA call options by a factor of 0.11?

 

[Papafox]

So what does that mean? The number of shares available went up, so either they're being returned or more people made their shares available. Does that mean they gave up for the day?

He says as a bullet bounces off the edge of his helmet and Jay quickly descends back into the foxhole.

 

[FredTMC]

What's up with Jonas and Elon? They get into an argument over SCTY? PT came way down to $245. I wonder if that's what he really thinks.

The PT hasn't changed. AJ lowered it a long time ago.

Yeah, think AJ STILL has "sour grapes" over Elon's refusal to answer questions about Ride Sharing (uber model). I think it was atleast two Earnings Calls in a row where AJ asked about those plans and Elon refused to comment

In retrospect, AJ was right to ask because it ultimately came out as part of SMP2. Good speculation on AJs part, and yes, I think AJ is still bitter about it and Elon is bitter about him pressing the question

 

[Jayjs20]

Jesus Chist

 

[Lessmog]

Don't really know what's happening right now. I didn't intend this to be a joke, but I guess I'm happy that it made some of you laugh. I'm seriously wondering what happens if you were to buy J17 SCTY call options and Tesla aqcuires SolarCity. Will they simply just be converted to J17 TSLA call options by a factor of 0.11?

Not sure, but maybe the perceived joke is that this question, or a variant, has been asked* here about once every five pages going back some months now.

*And sometimes answered too!

 

[austinEV]

Not sure, but maybe the perceived joke is that this question, or a variant, has been asked* here about once every five pages going back some months now.

*And sometimes answered too!

Correct, it is asked and answered ever 2 days. Your SCTY contracts convert into TSLA1 contracts with goofy characteristics. They will be good to exchange for TSLA shares at 0.11 ratio but traded thinly since they are weird.

 

[doggusfluffy]

Tesla Energy should be involved with communities looking to ultimately become energy independent. It's been frustratingly quiet for awhile now.

Boulder submits plan to take over Xcel Energy electric assets

According to Huntley, the city started talking about energy independence in 2009. In 2011, voters gave the go-ahead to the city to pursue ways to split from Xcel Energy. A split would give the city control over infrastructure. So, Boulder could decide to pursue renewable energy companies or they could continue to buy power from Xcel.

 

[tander]

Do you all expect an unveiling of GAAP profitability to have a greater impact on share price than the deliveries # did (~5%)? For the remainder of the year, I think this is by far the biggest thing that can give a meaningful boost in the right direction. It's really the only reason I'm holding shorter term calls.

IMO I see little downside risk from here, but I'm really wondering about realistic upside potential from now until end of year. I could be totally wrong, but it seems like we'll need some steak to blow past what seems like a stubborn 215.

Logic being damned, "the market" loves quarterly numbers. If you look at Tesla as a long-term investment quarterly profits, even yearly profits at this point are kind of irrelevant. But the market would almost certainly react more to profits than to the deliveries number.

I think it's early to count the deliveries %, as it might continue to play out a bit more. But I agree, little major downside risk for the next month, with plenty of steak sizzle both coming from inside and outside Tesla. That said wrenches fly out of nowhere sometimes. With regard to upside potential, that's a tough thing to pin, maybe it will be 10 or 20%, if the stars align maybe 100 or 200%. The big ? seems like it's the merger at this point. It seems like it could be kind of a no news sort of thing, or it might get interesting at some point. SCTY only has to get to I think 25 or 26 (someone correct me) for Tesla to get a "deal" on the merger, and if that were to happen to mood could change pretty quickly. I contacted Tesla IR last week to ask if the shares will be merged immediately upon completion of the vote or if it will be announced and the shares merged later, still no reply.

 

[Lessmog]

The PT hasn't changed. AJ lowered it a long time ago.

Yeah, think AJ STILL has "sour grapes" over Elon's refusal to answer questions about Ride Sharing (uber model). I think it was atleast two Earnings Calls in a row where AJ asked about those plans and Elon refused to comment

In retrospect, AJ was right to ask because it ultimately came out as part of SMP2. Good speculation on AJs part, and yes, I think AJ is still bitter about it and Elon is bitter about him pressing the question

IMO Mr Jonas does have some limited power to wield, but only as long as he commands respect from his audience, and that is only earned by being right more than wrong. And I think he is wrong here, if he abuses that power to inflate his ego, or whatever.

 

[AlMc]

Don't really know what's happening right now. I didn't intend this to be a joke, but I guess I'm happy that it made some of you laugh. I'm seriously wondering what happens if you were to buy J17 SCTY call options and Tesla aqcuires SolarCity. Will they simply just be converted to J17 TSLA call options by a factor of 0.11?

Yes, they convert over at that ratio and may end up (because of the .111) with a very odd Strike price: Example: TSLA J17 $218.3

 

[bonaire]

The PT hasn't changed. AJ lowered it a long time ago.

Yeah, think AJ STILL has "sour grapes" over Elon's refusal to answer questions about Ride Sharing (uber model). I think it was atleast two Earnings Calls in a row where AJ asked about those plans and Elon refused to comment

In retrospect, AJ was right to ask because it ultimately came out as part of SMP2. Good speculation on AJs part, and yes, I think AJ is still bitter about it and Elon is bitter about him pressing the question

Answer questions? In Andrea James interview, she said that all analysts get about 15 minutes of time (each) with the company "off the air" after the actual call. What you heard in the public call versus what they can ask during private-time. Not sure if elon is involved in private time, of course. Jonas' questions on that call about ride share were a little off the wall. What they seem to want to do is make it look like Tesla will get into the "Uber space" and that $40 Billion Uber private valuation could be "laid atop" a TSLA valuation somehow. As if Tesla can make the cars, ignite the software out the back of the Fremont plant and the cars will just start rolling around the Bay area picking up people immediately for a type of automotive utopia straight out of science fiction movies. While Uber is valued at the heights it has achieved, cloning their "value" and (what's the right word....) glomming off their presumed market disruptivity is what Jonas seemed to want to accomplish (via two questions on a public phone call). You've heard of fiat currency. He was after fiat valuation. He needs it - he was the one with the $450 price target a year or more ago (when his firm floated the big bonds) and now is saving face with $245 pt. From 450 to 333 to 245. Morgan Stanley on Tesla: 'We expect the Model 3 to be a really nice car' — but there's a catch

 

[larmor]

For the future, wasn't there a reference to having your car work for you once you are at work? Isn't that more than enough to satisfy the driverless anticipators?

 

[erha]

Sorry if I repeated an oft-repeated question. I don't read all the posts here, but I normally drop by every day. Can't say I've seen anything about how options are converted. Thanks AIMc for answering.

On another note, I'm baffled by the price action of TSLA in 2016. Tesla is in such a great position, and are making progress on all areas. I can't actually think of a company that has ever been positioned this well. Nevertheless, the market cap hasn't appreciated over the last two years.

Some claim Tesla has been overvalued for a long time, but look at Uber for example. It is valued at 66 billion, and when Tesla figures out true autonomous driving they will leave Uber in the dust.

I was equally puzzled fall 2012/spring 2013 when Tesla seemed stuck between 28 and 38. Is Tesla poised to break out again, or are we becoming delusional in this filter bubble here at TMC? I'm literally betting for the first one.

 

[MitchJi]

Don't really know what's happening right now. I didn't intend this to be a joke, but I guess I'm happy that it made some of you laugh. I'm seriously wondering what happens if you
were to buy J17 SCTY call options and Tesla aqcuires SolarCity. Will they simply just be converted to J17 TSLA call options by a factor of 0.11?

Discussed in great detail in the Trading Thread starting about (it was already discussed, but starting here should answer all of your questions) here:
TSLA Trading Strategies

I apologize if it is already mentioned before. What happens to Out-Of-The money call options of SCTY if the deal goes through? I believe someone posted a link to a detailed OIC article on it.

All cash deal is simple to understand as options with strike price above offer price become worthless. However, what we have here is an all stock deal at 0.11 convertion rate.

For example, SCTY $35 Jan'2018 call option is out of the money. So, a holder of 1 SCTY contract (100 options), should get 11 TSLA Jan'2018 call options at $318.18 strike price. Is that right?

Math:
100 * 0.11 = 11 options;
$35/0.11 = $318.18 adjusted strike price.

 

[tander]

Answer questions? In Andrea James interview, she said that all analysts get about 15 minutes of time (each) with the company "off the air" after the actual call. What you heard in the public call versus what they can ask during private-time. Not sure if elon is involved in private time, of course. Jonas' questions on that call about ride share were a little off the wall. What they seem to want to do is make it look like Tesla will get into the "Uber space" and that $40 Billion Uber private valuation could be "laid atop" a TSLA valuation somehow. As if Tesla can make the cars, ignite the software out the back of the Fremont plant and the cars will just start rolling around the Bay area picking up people immediately for a type of automotive utopia straight out of science fiction movies. While Uber is valued at the heights it has achieved, cloning their "value" and (what's the right word....) glomming off their presumed market disruptivity is what Jonas seemed to want to accomplish (via two questions on a public phone call). You've heard of fiat currency. He was after fiat valuation. He needs it - he was the one with the $450 price target a year or more ago (when his firm floated the big bonds) and now is saving face with $245 pt. From 450 to 333 to 245. Morgan Stanley on Tesla: 'We expect the Model 3 to be a really nice car' — but there's a catch

Plus with all that target lowering, he can go back to the 450 or whatever later this year or next and still have a little credibility.

 

[tander]

Sorry if I repeated an oft-repeated question. I don't read all the posts here, but I normally drop by every day. Can't say I've seen anything about how options are converted. Thanks AIMc for answering.

On another note, I'm baffled by the price action of TSLA in 2016. Tesla is in such a great position, and are making progress on all areas. I can't actually think of a company that has ever been positioned this well. Nevertheless, the market cap hasn't appreciated over the last two years.

Some claim Tesla has been overvalued for a long time, but look at Uber for example. It is valued at 66 billion, and when Tesla figures out true autonomous driving they will leave Uber in the dust.

I was equally puzzled fall 2012/spring 2013 when Tesla seemed stuck between 28 and 38. Is Tesla poised to break out again, or are we becoming delusional in this filter bubble here at TMC? I'm literally betting for the first one.

It's useful to remember that in terms of the actually accounting definition of the term "overvalued" TSLA is overvalued (it's current stock price does not equate to it's current intrinsic book value), and more-so than most stocks. When that is the reality, it's easy for the valuation to get amplified or tamped down. I agree it has been a weird year and is poised to break out, I guess it's more interesting that just buying ATT and collecting your dividend.

 

[EinSV]

Speaking of Adam Jonas .... Does anyone know whether he ever has moved off his pre-Model 3 reveal estimate of 300,000 Tesla vehicles sold in 2020? My googling has come up empty so far.

If not, IMO he is going to need to double or triple that after the M3 launches if not before.

 

[larmor]

Sorry if I repeated an oft-repeated question. I don't read all the posts here, but I normally drop by every day. Can't say I've seen anything about how options are converted. Thanks AIMc for answering.

On another note, I'm baffled by the price action of TSLA in 2016. Tesla is in such a great position, and are making progress on all areas. I can't actually think of a company that has ever been positioned this well. Nevertheless, the market cap hasn't appreciated over the last two years.

Some claim Tesla has been overvalued for a long time, but look at Uber for example. It is valued at 66 billion, and when Tesla figures out true autonomous driving they will leave Uber in the dust.

I was equally puzzled fall 2012/spring 2013 when Tesla seemed stuck between 28 and 38. Is Tesla poised to break out again, or are we becoming delusional in this filter bubble here at TMC? I'm literally betting for the first one.

Valuation and profit is a mechanism of economies of scale, hence the GF. Horizontal integration (not sure if correct term) is not far off with tesla based trucks. Vertical integration with in house parts, ref CEO of Fiat/chrysler and solar is coming.

Market is way undervaluing TM/TE. Just from auto business alone, 10 year old company makes luxury high gross margin sedan on par with mercedes S Class/BMW 7 series/Panamera, and SUV/CUV on par with cayenne and GL450/550/63. IF this was the only plan for TM, they would be rolling in cash, but its not. Its to change the energy paradigm.