Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[madodel]

Must be such a rush to own a Tesla. I sat in one the other day and began to dream like a kid does about Disneyland. Your a fortunate man to have been successful enough to own a Model S. Awesome. For you....America is still Great!

I have an X and I often go in the garage sometimes for an actual reason, and my X always greats me by lighting up and the mirrors opening. It is quite an experience just being around a Tesla. Was parked at a Lowes' store the other day and a woman came up to me and asked if I could make my door handles pop open. I told her my Tesla doesn't do that since only the Model S does, then I opened the FW door and they were astounded.

 

[Krugerrand]

I had a S 40 before my S 70D, and I loved it. I could carry 5 50" TVs in it (in their boxes). I'd sometimes go out into the garage (OK, I still do this) and just gaze at the beautiful lines of the Model S. This was the first new car I had ever owned, and I'm no spring chicken. Between the trunk and the frunk I could pick up 4 adults at Honolulu Airport and load their enormous vacation suitcases in the frunk and the trunk so that everyone traveled comfortably. Sorry, Bolt, no way could you ever fill those shoes. It'd kind of be like giving up Meg Ryan or Gwyneth Paltrow as a girlfriend and taking up with Rosie O'Donnell.

So, what I got out of this was that you steal TVs, you were bad at it so you became a taxi drive, and Rosie O'Donnell isn't your type. Does that about sum it up?

Edit: That's me *filtering* what you said.

 

[vgrinshpun]

I apologize for being busy with other matters and not responding within the 27 minutes you allotted between 8:33 am and 9:00 am to respond to your initial demand. You seem to be increasingly impatient and irritable lately; what is bothering you?

This is pretty lame. The ad hominem is less than informative visa vi the subject of subsidies, and pretty feeble as far as mind reading exercises are concerned. It tells more about state of yours than mine.

From the context of MMD's post about "a line item of Tesla energy in the quarterly reports" I interpreted his comment about subsidies to refer to subsidies in general and to be world-wide in scope. Certainly, it's implausible that MMD thought the volume of Powerwalls GMP was purchasing from TE for its pilot program warranted a separate line item in Tesla's financial reporting.

However, if you prefer to interpret MMD's comment as applying solely to subsidies provided by Vermont's GMP, "have it your way" as they used to say at Burger King.

Well, your interpretation differs not only from mine, but mmd's as well. Apparently, as I suspected, he can't distinguish between the payment to owner for shared use of his PowerWall by utility from the subsidy:

And about the subsidy from Green Mountain: Your posted link itself says that it is paying customers $31.76 per month to share their powerwall. This is essentially subsidizing the customer's cost of the powerwall.

If my attempt to provide information about and a link to Tesla Energy's greatest source of subsidies for its products added to your angst, I again apologize.

If you insist on framing SGIP as a subsidy, it is definitely not the TE greatest, the PUC Energy Storage Mandate is greater by far.

 

[MitchJi]

TSLA is the only stock that i know of that is posting triple digit increases in Revs and EPS YOY
so selling TSLA here is totally irrational
my bet: HRC gets elected next Tuesday and we have a monster rally (aka mother of all rallies) led by TSLA and SCTY

I'm seriously considering selling all of our TSLA options tomorrow. Then buying some shorter term puts, and possibly calls, (something like 20% and 10% of our portfolio). Then on Monday before the election going all in on SCTY January calls. I think that it's possible to have the calls gain a big percentage of the amount of our longer calls if TSLA goes up, which seems like in the next three days, and if the TSLA goes south we'd obviously be ahead.

I could just sit on them, because I think they'll go up eventually, but I want to load up on J19's before TSLA rises.

Any thoughts or advice would be appreciated!

 

[TMSE]

I'm seriously considering selling all of our TSLA options tomorrow. Then buying some shorter term puts, and possibly calls, (something like 20% and 10% of our portfolio). Then on Monday before the election going all in on SCTY January calls. I think that it's possible to have the calls gain a big percentage of the amount of our longer calls if TSLA goes up, which seems like in the next three days, and if the TSLA goes south we'd obviously be ahead.

I could just sit on them, because I think they'll go up eventually, but I want to load up on J19's before TSLA rises.

Any thoughts or advice would be appreciated!

Mitch,
Ever tried changing lanes to go faster in a slow traffic? This could end up the same way. Be careful

 

[TrendTrader007]

I'm seriously considering selling all of our TSLA options tomorrow. Then buying some shorter term puts, and possibly calls, (something like 20% and 10% of our portfolio). Then on Monday before the election going all in on SCTY January calls. I think that it's possible to have the calls gain a big percentage of the amount of our longer calls if TSLA goes up, which seems like in the next three days, and if the TSLA goes south we'd obviously be ahead.

I could just sit on them, because I think they'll go up eventually, but I want to load up on J19's before TSLA rises.

Any thoughts or advice would be appreciated!

I have no idea what TSLA or market will do tomorrow or over the next few days
However I have a few observations that might be helpful:
TSLA has gone down 4 days straight so a bounce would not be unexpected
TSLA SP is still holding above low of $187.87 made on June 27th so potentially a double bottom?
The probability of a violent rally next week is real in my opinion
Personally I'm doing nothing except sitting and watching from sidelines I still have all my position in TSLA intact and my margin calls are not due until Friday and next week mostly
I'll continue to hold all my TSLA stock and long dated calls with absolutely zero trading other than minimal margin related selling which should be no more than a few hundred or at most less than a thousand shares of TSLA

 

[TNEVol]

I know little about short/med term hedges. What do you see as hedges for a Trump election? Coal? Oil? (paging JHM)

 

[TrendTrader007]

In my case I find that when my temptation to sell a stock is strongest, it's mainly due to my fear of losing it all and I inevitably sell at or near the bottom and I regret it a few days later
In that sense I use my own emotions as a contrarian indicator
My worst mistake, made totally out of fear, was to sell all my BIDU position in October 2008 at $205 when I was confident about long term direction and I thought that BiDU would bottom at $100. Well I sold all of my position at $205 (and it was a substantial position) only to later watch BiDu soar 8 times to $1600 a share in next 3 years
I therefore am extremely reluctant to sell a growth stock like TSLA that I have huge confidence in and in times of panic like currently I reflect on long term fundamentals rather than short term technicals which invariably look terrible
As a technical trader I'm well aware of how terrible and bleak technicals look right before a stock makes a major up move and vice versa
The purpose of market is to fool the majority of traders most of the time so my best guess is that the terrible price action in TSLA is probably the darkest before the dawn
And the reason why I feel so confident is all fundamental right now, as opposed to technical

 

[Krugerrand]

Any thoughts or advice would be appreciated!

I'm naturally a very good decision maker. If I get stuck not being able to decide what to do about something (or start asking other people for their input), that always indicates to me that I shouldn't. So, I don't and it's always turned out to have been the right thing (not doing) to do. Don't know if that applies to you or not, but there it is.

Regardless, good freaking luck!

 

[Papafox]

I'm seriously considering selling all of our TSLA options tomorrow. Then buying some shorter term puts, and possibly calls, (something like 20% and 10% of our portfolio). Then on Monday before the election going all in on SCTY January calls. I think that it's possible to have the calls gain a big percentage of the amount of our longer calls if TSLA goes up, which seems like in the next three days, and if the TSLA goes south we'd obviously be ahead.

I could just sit on them, because I think they'll go up eventually, but I want to load up on J19's before TSLA rises.

Any thoughts or advice would be appreciated!

One of the big challenges of such a play is that the Nov17 merger vote follows Nov8 by just 9 day. Trading or manipulations for the two events could overlap in certain circumstances. Could be complicated.

 

[brian45011]

This is pretty lame. The ad hominem is less than informative visa vi the subject of subsidies, and pretty feeble as far as mind reading exercises are concerned. It tells more about state of yours than mine.



Well, your interpretation differs not only from mine, but mmd's as well. Apparently, as I suspected, he can't distinguish between the payment to owner for shared use of his PowerWall by utility from the subsidy:






If you insist on framing SGIP as a subsidy, it is definitely not the TE greatest, the PUC Energy Storage Mandate is greater by far.

WEAK!

 

[30seconds]

I dont think tesla sees Independence from Panasonic as a thing. I think Panasonic is thrilled with the business opportunity of working with Tesla, and Tesla (musk) has time and again said battery patents are up for grabs and that tesla cant open 100 factories all by itself. I imagine to some extent Musk is hoping Panasonic goes out and works with other companies to open more gigafactories. Tesla in the long run is in no need to corner the market any more than they have. They are so far ahead is ridiculous. I honestly think Musk initially didn't plan on the cars being so key to tesla. I think he figured he would make batteries and sell them to the automotive sector, but then it became clear very quickly they weren't having it so he said, well, "Ill make cars too". If Tesla ends up being worth the 1 Trillion dollars that its speculated to Musks share is 220 Billion (three times more wealth than bill gates). Thats more than enough to fund a new planet. Planet Musk. Not to mention Spacex will likely be one of the largest telecom providers in the world soon enough.

I jokingly wonder if Earth wont become to Mars what Australia was to England. You live on mars and you aren't a positive influence on society? No problem, well send you back to Earth.

Panasonic was a struggling company in 2012. Testa has helped to pull them out of a big hole (solar in Japan post tsunami also) first by giving them volume in their operating plants, reopening mothballed plants and giving them a path to future growth via the GF. It is a win-win situation with Panasonics battery manufacturing knowledge and now with their solar expertise. I would expect the relationship to continue to deepen as it has already proved to be mutually beneficial.

Getting two companies to work together like that is not easy and should not be undervalued.

 

[sundaymorning]

I think Sunday and Papa both have/had 60s. The Motor Trend article said that the Bolt was a better car than a 60 (as I recall) based mostly on price. I cant imagine a 60 owner choosing a Bolt even with the price differential. Does everyone agree that these are not comparable cars?

Let's put it this way, if I was a broke college student, driving around in a bolt would be nice. But look, you couldn't pay me to drive in a bolt these days. I might sound a little snobbish here, but a grown man like myself likes to roll with some class and style. There's nothing wrong with a bolt if that's how one chooses to roll, I'm not judging. But please, don't put my Tesla and a bolt in the same sentence.

When I was driving around in my Toyota, I would never consider opening the door for my girl, but ever since I got my Tesla, I pamper my babe by always showing her a little class. She once asked me why I changed all of a sudden. I told her babe, opening doors for you in a Toyota just doesn't feel right, it makes me feel silly, especially when there's a long line of cars waiting to take my parking space. But when you roll in a Tesla, people, strangers, etc. tend to know what you're about, you can feel their patience waiting for *You* to leave the parking spot. It's instant respect without having to say a word. Now try getting that in a Bolt. That's what the difference in price gets you, respect and a whole lot of luxury one can't come to phantom, unless you're a MS owner.

Authors writing up reviews aren't owners, they don't understand the value of luxury and respect. They're used to settling for less. But if you have the dough, "settling" is out of the question.

There's a reason why Tesla is ranked #1 in automobiles, in terms of changing buyers' life. I used to think MS owners exaggerated their love for the their car, this perception ultimately changed when I got mine..

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Single data point-Had a chance tonight to go by my restaurant in OakBroook Center Oak Brook, IL where the Tesla store is. Where I park is one floor below the Tesla demo car so I checked out some of the cars to see what's in inventory: X P90D, 2 X 75D, S P100D, S 75D and unmarked S. (60 to 75)???. Notice the mix for Chicago area.

Some where on this forum I read you can spot AP2 by looking at the B pillars? If that's how you tell the difference I could not find the camera lens in any of the car which confirms you wouldn't want new AP2 for customer demo.

 

[AudubonB]

Mod input:

Warnings sent out. Keep cool, boyz 'n grilz

 

[BobSk]

In my case I find that when my temptation to sell a stock is strongest, it's mainly due to my fear of losing it all and I inevitably sell at or near the bottom and I regret it a few days later
In that sense I use my own emotions as a contrarian indicator
My worst mistake, made totally out of fear, was to sell all my BIDU position in October 2008 at $205 when I was confident about long term direction and I thought that BiDU would bottom at $100. Well I sold all of my position at $205 (and it was a substantial position) only to later watch BiDu soar 8 times to $1600 a share in next 3 years
I therefore am extremely reluctant to sell a growth stock like TSLA that I have huge confidence in and in times of panic like currently I reflect on long term fundamentals rather than short term technicals which invariably look terrible
As a technical trader I'm well aware of how terrible and bleak technicals look right before a stock makes a major up move and vice versa
The purpose of market is to fool the majority of traders most of the time so my best guess is that the terrible price action in TSLA is probably the darkest before the dawn
And the reason why I feel so confident is all fundamental right now, as opposed to technical

"007", I think many things that you said in the past, including this post, are right to the point. Your conviction combined with the ability to find the high growth companies, and the laser focus allocation, make it possible for you to become a billionaire. I know a guy who bought one million shares of a small company watched the company grew more than 1000 fold. Not sure if he still have all the shares, the gain should be more than 1 billion dollars. (I also watched the whole thing, except I hesitated when I had the chance to buy at the low point).

There are at least 300 common mistakes in trading and investment. I have personally experienced 200 of them. Lots of them are based on human instinct. It seems the only way to learn a mistake is to make the mistake. Long time ago, I promised to myself: don't make the same mistake repeatedly, otherwise, I will have thousands of mistakes waiting on my way.

I think buying stocks with margin is a mistake. There are two signs that indicate my margin is a trouble: 1. I feel stressful; 2. I am forced to sell. My answer for this is I always keep 10% cash, assume the worst is yet to come.

You have to know what's right what's wrong, then have the discipline to do the right things.

 

[DaveT]

I know a guy who bought one million shares of a small company watched the company grew more than 1000 fold.

@BobSk What was the company?

 

[racer26]

Well; Cubs snapped the 108 year drought. Maybe things are turning around.

 

[EnzoXYZ]

Well; Cubs snapped the 108 year drought. Maybe things are turning around.

About time!!!! Yahhh!!!

 

[Value Ev]

The Cubs finally win
What does this mean for Tesla and EV?

Simple:

The Cubs Have A Smaller Chance Of Winning Than Trump Does

Except for missing trumps nomination, silver has a great record in both politics and sports.

Lol.