Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

[Yggdrasill]

Awesome. I looked into heat pumps but it looked like if I replace my current 30 year old air conditioning / gas heat furnace combo, I would have to drop between $15k and $20k on the project. Since the majority of my cost is already compensated for by having a 10kW solar PV system ($3000/year with two electric cars and AC in the crazy hot summers in california), the difference in cost savings for gas ($750/year) was not making this attractive.

How much did you pay for the heat pump system all in all ?

The usual price here in Norway for an air-air heat pump is 15-25k NOK, or 1800-3000 USD, including installation. This provides something like 5 kW of heating/cooling. This is the most common choice.

Other types of heat pumps are somewhere between substantially more expensive and extremely more expensive. A ground source heat pump with under-floor heating in a small-ish house (by US standards) can cost 40.000 USD.

My point is basically - you decide how much costs.

 

[trils0n]

At least one huge inaccuracy though (Musk promises in bold below):

Since that CR article seems to be getting some traction in the media:
Another inaccuracy I noticed was that CR claimed Tesla said the solar roof would last 30 years. AFAIK, unless Tesla gave CR info that no one else got, that simply isn't true. Tesla never claimed a lifetime. I think Elon mentioned at least double the lifespan of a normal roof. EDIT: Probably ok for purposes of calculating energy generation, but when making a purchase decision lifetime is important

 

[Value Ev]

Not sure that is a huge assumption as I have about 1/4 of my roof covered with solar panels and it covers all of the usage for the house and two plug in cars. I live in cloudy NE TN and we heat via an electric heat pump so we are far from an ideal climate solar wise.

Interesting info.
Your system generates $2000 in electricity per year?
How many square feet is your system?

 

[FredTMC]

I'm ready for the US election to be over... remove the uncertainty

And we don't need another "dimpled/hanging chad" hoopla.

 

[Ulmo]

I'm ready for the US election to be over... remove the uncertainty

And we don't need another "dimpled/hanging chad" hoopla.

3 more market days. (Less than a week!)

Then, posters here seem to say we'll get an exaggerated binary movement, with a movement correction when everyone realizes they won't have that huge an effect.

If Hillary wins, I'll tell her Tesla saves the environment, is popular with the public, and is making enough money to invest in its own future without government support (so she can go ahead and stop supporting coal and oil wars and subsidies), although the government could help accelerate a future planet we can live on.

If Trump wins, I'll tell him Tesla is huge (and show him the TE stuff coming), is USA-made, doesn't put money in the hands of terrorists like dirty oil does, and will make our air healthier to breath, and since this is the way the transportation and energy industry is going, it'd be better for USA to do it than China, which also is mounting huge viable competition in the same clean transportation and clean energy industries (which help fuel factories, too), believe me. (I'll skip over the global warming stuff which many Republicans dispute (where do they live? obviously not near any natural forests like me); others already tell him that enough, so I'm sure he's heard that before.) What I would also say to Trump is that if he is not fighting against the future but for it, then he can help the displaced workers in outdated sectors retrain and retire.

And if both listen to me, it's anybody's guess what the differential effect will be.

 

[Nate the Great]

Does anyone have a Interactive Broker account? I would like to see if they have short shares available and the interest rate.

Right now: Fidelity has 0 shares available at 1.00 %.


Thanks,

N

 

[kyne]

Does anyone have a Interactive Broker account? I would like to see if they have short shares available and the interest rate.

Right now: Fidelity has 0 shares available at 1.00 %.

176k available @ 1.1%

 

[Nate the Great]

176k available @ 1.1%

Thanks "kyne"

To me it seems odd to have a low interest rate and no shares to loan out?

 

[3Victoria]

Does anyone know how the interest rates are set?

 

[aznt1217]

Does anyone have a Interactive Broker account? I would like to see if they have short shares available and the interest rate.

Right now: Fidelity has 0 shares available at 1.00 %.


Thanks,

N

Where do you see this? I am logged into Fidelity and can't find this data point.

 

[Nate the Great]

Where do you see this? I am logged into Fidelity and can't find this data point.

For me log into the Fidelity page. Click "Accounts & Trade", scroll down to "Trade" and click.

You should now be on the "Trade" page. In the bottom right hand corner there is a "Related Links" underneath that is "Short Sale Lookup"

I know that the short interest is also displayed on their trading platform, which you can download.

 

[CALGARYARSENAL]

Hey........at least we are not in GoPro or Twilleo!

 

[Nate the Great]

Does anyone know how the interest rates are set?

Good question I would like to know as well?

 

[RobStark]

Yet 22.5% of SCTY's NPV (after recourse debt) accrues from renewals of leases/PPAs in years 21-30. Technological obsolescence means renewals are unlikely and could threaten defaults during the initial 20 year terms.

The quicker Elon can monetize those leases/PPAs through non-recourse debt, the better.

For the vast majority technical obsolescence is irrelevant.

It is the cost of electricity per kWh.

Yes, some may want to switch for looks, because they want the latest and greatest. or they need much more juice and don't have the roof space to simply add more panels but for most panels are an appliance that delivers electricity.

And for most environmentalist throwing productive solar panels in the trash is a crime against nature.

 

[dha]

I have no idea what TSLA or market will do tomorrow or over the next few days
However I have a few observations that might be helpful:
TSLA has gone down 4 days straight so a bounce would not be unexpected
TSLA SP is still holding above low of $187.87 made on June 27th so potentially a double bottom?

Your thoughts on closing below the key $187.87 level?

 

[mmd]

Another article on Teslarati about the Solar roof:
How much will the Tesla Solar Roof cost?

Consumer reports made some forecast and analysis about pricing.
Here's the final numbers:

After Consumer Reports checked all its sources, made all its assumptions, and crunched all its numbers, it said in order to be competitive,

• a Tuscan tile roof needs to cost less than $69,500 ($2,300 x 100 square foot).
• a smooth or textured tile roof needs to cost less than $73,500 ($2,450 x 100 square feet)
• a slate tile roof needs to cost less than $98,500 ($3,300 x 100 square feet).

Original analysis from CR here: Here's How Much Tesla's New Solar Roof Could Cost

Any idea why CR assumed average annual electricity bill to be $2000? Here, I'm seeing average monthly bill of $90 for California in 2013. That is only $1080 annually.
Average Monthly Electrical Bill by State – Updated Data

2015 bill was $94/mo in CA. Annual $1140.
http://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/pdf/table5_a.pdf

Did CR inflate the electricity prices for future years, but did not inflate the price of the solar roof the same way? Or did they use some other way of arriving at the $2000 figure? There is some lost income due to not investing the money somewhere else, right?

 

[RobStark]

If Trump wins, I'll tell him Tesla is huge (and show him the TE stuff coming)

Trump doesn't understand that word.

You will have to tell him it is Yuge. Or Bigly.

 

[BobSk]

Any idea why CR assumed average annual electricity bill to be $2000? Here, I'm seeing average monthly bill of $90 for California in 2013. That is only $1080 annually.
Average Monthly Electrical Bill by State – Updated Data

2015 bill was $94/mo in CA. Annual $1140.
http://www.eia.gov/electricity/sales_revenue_price/pdf/table5_a.pdf

Did CR inflate the electricity prices for future years, but did not inflate the price of the solar roof the same way? Or did they use some other way of arriving at the $2000 figure? There is some lost income due to not investing the money somewhere else, right?

I don't know the answer to you question. But a related thought: some people have $250 monthly bills, some have $50 bills. Those with $250 bills will think the solar roof is a great deal. Using monthly average to predict solar roof's market competitiveness can mislead.

 

[brian45011]

For the vast majority technical obsolescence is irrelevant.

It is the cost of electricity per kWh.

Yes, some may want to switch for looks, because they want the latest and greatest. or they need much more juice and don't have the roof space to simply add more panels but for most panels are an appliance that delivers electricity.

And for most environmentalist throwing productive solar panels in the trash is a crime against nature.

Those panels are owned by SCTY not the homeowner (assuming the non-recourse debt agreements just granted a security interest rather than transferring title/ownership.)

Winfield claimed he could replace his 17 yr old, owned panels with newer versions, gaining an efficiency improvement between 4 times to 7 times. He probably fits your inertia profile since he has sunk costs which still save him energy cost from the local publicly owned utility.

The SCTY lessees are in an entirely different situation and (IMO) will have the whip hand in any renewal negotiations. What will the efficiency/cost improvements be over the next 15-20 years as those 300,000 leases/PPAs expire? No one is suggesting anything be thrown in the trash--SCTY can remove those panels then and re-use them as they seem fit. I submit the more likely scenario is that SCTY will abandon those by-then obsolete panels and try to save the removal expense. Even if they negotiate with the homeowner to transfer ownership for a nominal value, the $0.9 billion in NPV for lease renewals is largely illusory.

 

[dennis]

Yes, I have been saying that all along. Tesla is building inventory but there are still a lot of poster out there who are taking issue with that conclusion.

True. But to Vlad's original point you can't compare 2016 October European deliveries to 2015 because no custom configured European cars were built in September 2016. I offered Tesla's customer focused reason for doing this.