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Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016

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TSLA holding around $195... my hunch says this is as far as it's going to get today.

I'm pretty impressed with TSLA holding 195 so far this afternoon. Between 1:03 and 1:05 pm, 30,000 shares were sold and although TSLA took a dip, it bounced right back. We'll likely see another test before the day is done. If it holds, I will be thoroughly impressed with the trading, considering the mischief certain parties can cause when the volume is low.

Edit: Looks like we see a downward slope starting at about 2:10pm. The volume is just so low right now that the SP can be led up or down by a determined party. This is no surprise
 
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Are you sure about this one? My understanding of the ABL (but I don't have time to check just now) is that it is only secured by the automotive assets in question, that is, inventory produced and on its way to customers.
"
1.1. Grant of Security Interests .

(a) As security for the prompt and complete payment and performance when due of all of its Obligations, each Assignor does hereby pledge and grant to the Collateral Agent, for the benefit of the Secured Creditors, a continuing security interest in all of the right, title and interest of such Assignor in, to and under all of the following personal property (and all rights therein) of such Assignor, or in which or to which such Assignor has any rights, in each case whether now existing or hereafter from time to time acquired:

(i) each and every Account (and all rights to receive payments, indebtedness and other obligations (whether constituting an Account, Chattel Paper (including Electronic Chattel Paper), Instrument, Document or General Intangible) to the extent related to any Account);
(ii) all cash and Money arising from an Account;
(iii) the Cash Collateral Account and all monies, securities, Instruments and other investments deposited or required to be deposited in the Cash Collateral Account;
(iv) all (x) Deposit Accounts, collection accounts, disbursement accounts and lock boxes and all cash, Money, checks, other negotiable instruments, funds and other evidences of payments held therein or credited thereto, (y) Securities Accounts and Security Entitlements and Securities credited thereto, and all cash, Money, checks, marketable securities, Financial Assets and other property held therein or credited thereto, and (z) commodity accounts and all cash, Money, marketable securities, Financial Assets and other property held therein or credited thereto; in each case to the extent (i) holding Designated Cash, (ii) subject to a Cash Management Control Agreement or (iii) otherwise subject to a control agreement in form and substance reasonably satisfactory to the Administrative Agent giving the Collateral Agent “control” (within the meaning of the UCC).
(v) all Promissory Notes relating to any Account;
(vi) all Equipment set forth on Annex E as such Annex may be amended, restated, modified or otherwise supplemented from time to time;
(vii) all Inventory;
(viii) all Payment Intangibles relating to any Account;
(ix) to the extent relating to, evidencing or governing any of the items referred to in preceding clauses (i) through (viii), all Permits, Documents, General Intangibles (excluding all Intellectual Property Rights and contracts related thereto), Chattel Paper, Instruments, Letter-of-Credit Rights, related letters of credit, guarantees and collateral liens, documents of title, customs receipts, insurance, shipping and other documents and other materials related to the foregoing (including to the purchase or import of any Inventory);
(x) to the extent relating to, evidencing or governing any of the items referred to in the preceding clauses (i) through (ix), all Supporting Obligations;
(xi) all books and records relating to the items referred to in the preceding clauses (i) through (x) (including all books, databases, customer lists, and records, whether tangible or electronic, which contain any information relating to any of the items referred to in the preceding clauses (i) through (x)); and
(xii) all substitutions, replacements accessions, Proceeds and products of any and all of the foregoing, including collateral security and guarantees with respect to any of the foregoing and all cash, Money, insurance proceeds, Instruments, Securities, Financial Assets, income, royalties, payments, licensing, damages and Deposit Accounts constituting Proceeds of the foregoing (all of the above described in the preceding clauses (i) through (xii), the “ Collateral ”).
 
Expect some resistance right here around 195 based on the weekly chart convergence of 1) 200 Week SMA 2) 10 Week SMA just above the 200 week SMA 3) down sloping trendline starting from the week of 8/1/2016. Monthly chart currently showing a nice hammer candlestick off the lower Bollinger band.
 
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The difference between Tesla's approach to MX and M3 was beaten to death, with detailed discussions. In summary, Tesla did not need to produce MX, they approached it as a halo vehicle, designing it in a way they did because they had plenty of time (due to success of MS) and (they thought) they can do it. With all the downfalls of this approach, it IS a halo vehicle, invaluable for the brand recognision, notwithstanding all the problems, real and perceived. IMO they did ultimately achieved the goal of contributing to the brand recognition and allure - and at least 400K reservations for M3 based on very sketchy information is a testament for this achievement. It boils down to reservation for a TESLA at $35K.

They do not need convince people that Tesla has most innovative automotive business any more. It is an accepted fact. With M3 platform, they need to get to 10x of the volume of MS, and the main target throughout the design is its manufacturability and capital efficiency (increased volume brings capital in, instead of capital being required to scale up). Unlike MX, the schedule is paramount because of the GF which belongs not to a supplier but to Tesla, and will be producing huge volume of batteries that must go into cars. Being late with M3 in its consequences just can't be compared with being late with MX.

So analogy IMO is just not there. There are clear risks with Tesla execution of M3 program, but I do not think you can glean anything by this comparison.

The problem is, that although all of the above IMO is a reality, not everybody investing in Tesla is recognizing/acknowledging it. I personally think that anybody looking into this analogy is divorced from reality of what's happening at Tesla. The sad part is that if majority of investors are adopting this analogy, they are creating another reality - related to the SP. So we have two divorced universes: reality of M3 program at Tesla vs. reality of market perception of it and what it means for the SP.
I agree with your points, but you have to admit Tesla could be a bit more forthcoming about hitting their internal milestones on the M3 program.

I think, since "pencils down" it's mostly been radio silence on sg that is vital to the company's future. Sure, they say they are on track and I get the need for secrecy on unannounced features, but a few tweets or short PRs about hitting the milestones could reassure investors.
 
"(a) For purposes of enabling the Collateral Agent to exercise rights and remedies under this Agreement each Assignor hereby grants to the Collateral Agent and its agents, representatives and designees:

(i) an irrevocable, nonexclusive, royalty free license, rent-free license and rent-free lease (which will be binding on any successor or assignee of such Assignor) to, after the occurrence and during the continuance of an Event of Default have access to and use all of such Assignor’s Real Property (including the buildings and other improvements thereon), Equipment and fixtures (whether or not considered Real Property); and ..."

Who is going to lend money and take back as collateral a mortgage on building shells and underlying land subject to that pre-existing grant?
Yeah, actually, I think any bank would. The text of that is designed to allow the assignor to *continue operating* the factories. Since they're rather specialized operations, they're worth more if the existing tenant continues to operate them; it makes for a perfectly reasonable condition. If a bank decided that an operating car factory was worthless and valuable only as empty land for sale to someone else, *then* they wouldn't make a mortgage loan.

Fidelity and Google gave SpaceX $1 billion for an equity interest in early 2015. IMO, part of the motivation for the SCTY merger was to substitute TSLA owners for SpaceX owners as the source of funds for SCTY's activities. By Feb 2019 Tesla will have to refinance about $220 million in remainling 2018 notes and all of the $920 million in the 2019 notes. (Anyone sanguine about the ease with which Tesla will be able to raise new capital and/or fund operations and debt service from profits should check out the 2019 notes--trading at 90% of par.)
I did say that 2019 will require some refinancing.

I believe Tesla's situation will be a lot clearer in 2019, and I would not be surprised to see an equity raise in 2019 -- but with Model 3 in mass production for a year and SolarCity cleaned up, I would expect that equity raise to be at a much higher stock price than today.

Musk said he wouldn't need to raise money to complete the Model 3 rollout, or to complete the Solarcity Buffalo factory product rollout. I believe him, and if he's slightly wrong, I'm pretty sure he can finance the gap personally.

This certainly doesn't mean he won't need to raise money in 2019, which is after both of those events.
 
I agree with your points, but you have to admit Tesla could be a bit more forthcoming about hitting their internal milestones on the M3 program.

I think, since "pencils down" it's mostly been radio silence on sg that is vital to the company's future. Sure, they say they are on track and I get the need for secrecy on unannounced features, but a few tweets or short PRs about hitting the milestones could reassure investors.
There is so much pessimism on TSLA, although rightfully so, tweets or PR releases about hitting internal milestones will likely get a cold response. A better way to show that they are on-track is the actual reveal. Elon has promised one in 3 to 4 months, that is the end of March or early April next year. If that reveal indeed demonstrate the spaceship-like interior that Elon promised, expect the SP to go much higher, beyond $300+.
 
Does anyone here know what becomes of fractional shares in the SCTY buyout? In the deal, each SCTY share was with 11% of a TSLA share. So unless you had a multiple of 100 shares, you are going to have a fractional share of TSLA (I did).

For other stock that I've owned, when things like this happen, the fractional shares are paid out as cash. But I don't see that this time. The transactions were just yesterday, so maybe it is coming. Anyone know where this detail of the transaction is documented?
 
Tesla began direct leases to business owners in 2Q14, expanding several quarters later to private owners (where they make less financial sense--no tax write-off of lease payments) In early 2014 Tesla was flush with cash proceeds of about $2.2 billion from the 2019/2021 note offerings so the early leases were financed internally. As Tesla consumed that cash to fund operations and CapEx, they started using the "Warehouse" credit lines to earn a little interest arbitrage on the direct leases. Leases by "banking affiliates" are out right sales but subject to residual value guarantees by Tesla. Until 3Q16, leasing was not broken out separately on the Income Statement.
Given Tesla's big need for cash to fund growth, why are they using cash to fund direct leases? Couldn't they do everything with banking partners?
 
Does anyone here know what becomes of fractional shares in the SCTY buyout? In the deal, each SCTY share was with 11% of a TSLA share. So unless you had a multiple of 100 shares, you are going to have a fractional share of TSLA (I did).

For other stock that I've owned, when things like this happen, the fractional shares are paid out as cash. But I don't see that this time. The transactions were just yesterday, so maybe it is coming. Anyone know where this detail of the transaction is documented?

Same thing here; cashed out. Pretty sure it's been most of the discussion the last couple days.
 
I agree with your points, but you have to admit Tesla could be a bit more forthcoming about hitting their internal milestones on the M3 program.

I think, since "pencils down" it's mostly been radio silence on sg that is vital to the company's future. Sure, they say they are on track and I get the need for secrecy on unannounced features, but a few tweets or short PRs about hitting the milestones could reassure investors.

It could have. But I doubt that few tweets would cut it. I suspect that they internally came to a conclusion that anything except reveal everything will not cut it in the current environment, and they just can't do it, as they need to continue selling MS/MX in increasing quantities and revealing any additional features/improvements which likely to be utilized not only in M3 but MS/MX as well is a potentially net negative to the current and pre-M3 MS/MX sales.

We are all frustrated because of SP being seemingly divorced from reality, but IMO they are looking at this from the point of view of operating the company, SP is likely a consideration, but secondary.
 
Adam Jonas was the best analyst till he kept pumping out stratospheric price targets for raising new capital, based on non-existent businesses. Now, he is the worst for putting out realistic targets. The guy has to keep his job at MS :) He can't keep doing what he was doing last year. Or he will be let go, like Andrea James.

Morgan Stanley Massively Hikes Price Target on Tesla, Says Stock Could Almost Double
In a note this morning, Jonas has increased the price target for Tesla to $465 from $280. (The stock opened at $243 on Monday morning before rising about 4 percent in early trading). The key reason behind this is what he calls "Tesla Mobility, an app-based, on-demand mobility service.

His Model 3 targets are very realistic. Most likely, Tesla's COGS won't allow it to make a $35k Model 3 next year. If Model 3 doesn't come out by 2018, it won't see the $7500 tax credit. Model 3 buyers will probably buy a Model S or some other car by then.

It's interesting to recap the comments from the frequent posters here in early April. There were some hyping up 1 million deposits for M3. The deposits could only grow exponentially. Oh, the hair dressers, the restaurant waiters, everyone selling an M3 to 100 other customers :)
 
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Most likely, Teslas COGS won't allow it to make a $35k Model 3 next year.
Where on Earth do you get that idea from? Reasoning by analogy?

The entire design for Model 3 is based around "hit the $35K price", including the construction of an entire Gigafactory to cut battery prices and the automation of production lines to cut the rest of the costs.

Now, are they going to have a low profit margin at first? Yeah, probably. Will they be producing the car for less than $35K? I'm really quite sure of it. The entire company has been focused around this single mission for years now, and it's not particularly difficult given where they are already.
 
Does anyone here know what becomes of fractional shares in the SCTY buyout? In the deal, each SCTY share was with 11% of a TSLA share. So unless you had a multiple of 100 shares, you are going to have a fractional share of TSLA (I did).

For other stock that I've owned, when things like this happen, the fractional shares are paid out as cash.

It may depend on your broker, and if they normally deal in fractional shares. For my shares at Pershing they cashed out the fractional TSLA shares at the same time they did the conversion. For my shares at Capital One Investing, who deals a lot in fractional shares, so far they have just converted the shares and left the fractional shares in my account. (Though there is no saying that they can't cash them out later, they haven't finished updating the cost basis yet either.)
 
The feds just gave batteries and rooftop solar panels access to big-time energy markets -

Distributed energy will be able to play in wholesale energy markets. That’s a big deal.

Given the state of US politics, it’s safe to say that very few people are paying attention to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) right now — even fewer than usual, I mean.


However, in its quiet and nerdy way, FERC just did something that could help drive a paradigm shift in US energy markets, making them cleaner, smarter, more flexible, and more resilient. In short, the agency proposes to give distributed energy resources (DERs) — batteries, solar panels, smart energy-management software — access to markets where they can compete directly with big power plants. That could open up huge new sources of investment, enabling DER markets to scale up quickly.

"Zero value" indeed.
 
I was super fortunate/lucky with SCTY. I first bought in at $77 but managed to buy at the dips and sell at the peaks on the way down to $20, so I ended up about 1% green after 2.5 years. My timing was actually spectacular but I was only buying and selling ~25% of my holdings. So my TSLA average didn't change more than mouse nuts.[/QUOTE]

really would like to know. I have 1.61 fractional shares in 3 accounts and no answers yet from Schwab
 
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