first of all... i don't actually post that much content.
second of all... I KNOW TESLA IS A GROWTH STOCK.
the point is... regardless of whether or not it's a growth stock... it's a company just like any other...
12 months ago... nearly all analysts were predicting at least $1 EPS for 2016... many were predicting $3... and one (credit suisse) was predicting 7 freaking dollars EPS for 2016...
now they've all lumped together sub -$1.
i'm sorry... you don't just get to forget about the past 12 months because it's a growth stock... and now you're going to tell me about reinvestment of capital... etc... and then we're going to have the exact same discussion at this time every year for the next 3 years... just like we did for the last 3 years... and Tesla will always be just about to break out.
Several people responded to this and gave you the answer that "growth is causing losses", which you probably wrote off as bs.
Maybe I can present you an alternative, a more palatable answer.
We all know all the way from mid 2015 through mid 2016, the big mess up was model X production issues. This caused damage in a few different ways:
- The production'isation took lot more cost
- There was lost revenue
- Most importantly SG&A (and R&D) was ramped up ahead of cycle, anticipating X revenue to come in earlier (which didn't), causing a deep gap between gross-profits and net-profits.
So all this turned expected profits into realised losses. Management clearly expressed regrets and have expressed that they learnt their lessons - no less, in writing!
What more can any one expect.
Effectively, we on the long side believe this to be more of a one time incident.
For you to be right, Tesla will have to have a model X sized mess up year in and year out. My advice to you, don't bet on it!
Even if they have failures here and there, there will be plenty of other revenue/product streams that will more than make up for mistakes. So be careful if you were to maintain a long-term short position.
PS:
You posted 483 messages in 72 business days at a rate of 6.7 posts/bus-day. You sure do post a lot of stuff.
"first of all... i don't actually post that much content." -- This is factually incorrect.