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Stumbled across this from Australia....

the authors of that article are intentionally leaving out the distinctive of the Australian market, and they know it.


upload_2018-9-4_8-26-53.png

we have about 8GW of solar downunder on rooftop install. so it not seen by the grid, but it is felt by the grid.

this is the reality in much of oz http://hellosolar.com.au/index.php/...iy9JUYqNDGu76_pcY4xpUDCUseuD4VzBoCKt0QAvD_BwE
upload_2018-9-4_8-39-55.png


local boys who can install roof top solar far far far cheaper than grid scale units.

upload_2018-9-4_8-54-51.png

i'm from an area with high network charge, queensland is about 4x larger than califonia, but with about 1/8 the population...

anyway, the takeaway is

rooftop solar is so cheap and dominant in Australia, that any large scale solar is burdened by being
1) generates simultaneously as roof top solar, so competes for same price.
2) burdened by distribution, network and retail charges.

the other bit the authors of that article is omitting, Australia's marginal cost of fossil fuel is gas, not coal. and Australian gas is at international rates.
3) where large scale solar works well in Australia, is where is local to a big user. so its really is just a giant behind the meter unit yet again.
 

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https://reneweconomy.com.au/solar-pushes-mid-day-electricity-prices-below-zero-in-queensland-70680/

this is more like reality, there is about a 90% domestic / 10% large scale split in solar production in Qld, and its already sufficient to push mid day electricity price into negative territory. i felt this for years, when i noticed that my solar was being used for off peak hot water heating!

We already picked the low hanging fruits, if we want lights on when the sun is low, we need those power stations. either that or full scale grid defection. in qld it will be full scale grid defection, cost of a petrol generator is trivial, batterys are coming down, solar + generator + battery becomes the cheapest option easily before 2028.
 
Solar pushes mid-day electricity prices below zero in Queensland

this is more like reality, there is about a 90% domestic / 10% large scale split in solar production in Qld, and its already sufficient to push mid day electricity price into negative territory. i felt this for years, when i noticed that my solar was being used for off peak hot water heating!

We already picked the low hanging fruits, if we want lights on when the sun is low, we need those power stations. either that or full scale grid defection. in qld it will be full scale grid defection, cost of a petrol generator is trivial, batterys are coming down, solar + generator + battery becomes the cheapest option easily before 2028.
What can you generate on a typical roof? There's a lot of energy needed for an electric car...
 
EV Sales: Global Sales by OEM


OEMs.PNG


Top plug in oems jan-jul 2018

You said "plug-in" and that's important. I don't like this chart at all since it mixes measly plug-ins hybrids with actual EVs...

On the other hand, it is impressive to see that "they can't produce anything" Tesla with pure BEVs is beating pretty much all of the legacy car makers. (I liked the previous approach in this thread to rank car makers by kwh deployed, rather than by number of cars sold...)
 
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Reno's population is growing.
Buffalo's population is shrinking to static.
These are positives for Buffalo. Reno's having a problem because housing prices have skyrocketed, so it's hard to attract workers to a place where housing is so expensive; this has been reported as the *major problem with expanding the Gigafactory* -- they can't get enough workers because the workers take one look at the housing prices and demand more money.

Buffalo has lots of cheap housing, meaning that workers will accept lower salaries. (Buffalo has been attracting a thriving community of first- and second-generation immigrants who are moving from NYC specifically because of the cheap housing, actually.) And it's got more cultural activity than Reno (which frankly is a pretty low bar -- unless you like casinos and bars, Reno's got practically nothing.)

Plus if you don't mind the snow, it's easy enough to take a quick visit to Toronto, New York or Boston from Buffalo. From Reno, you can make a quick visit to the Bay Area, but that's pretty much it.

Reno has a dry climate and generally warm without the south Nevada insanity.
It's a desert which is boiling hot and dry. I could mark that as a negative.

And it doesn't get ridiculous amounts of winter snow. Buffalo gets more snow than we do, and we get way too much.
I admit Buffalo has more snow than basically anywhere, but if you like skiing, snowboarding, cross-country skiing, sledding, or any other winter sport, that's a positive. :)
 
https://reneweconomy.com.au/solar-pushes-mid-day-electricity-prices-below-zero-in-queensland-70680/

this is more like reality, there is about a 90% domestic / 10% large scale split in solar production in Qld, and its already sufficient to push mid day electricity price into negative territory. i felt this for years, when i noticed that my solar was being used for off peak hot water heating!

We already picked the low hanging fruits, if we want lights on when the sun is low, we need those power stations. either that or full scale grid defection. in qld it will be full scale grid defection, cost of a petrol generator is trivial, batterys are coming down, solar + generator + battery becomes the cheapest option easily before 2028.
How's battery pricing? I know some people have already gone off-grid without a generator (there was a reneweconomy report on a millionaire doing it). With solar so cheap it seems like anyone with enough space (large lot) would be inclined to max out solar, put in batteries to cover the night, and call it done.

People in cities would probably still need some utility-scale solar / wind / batteries, but rural areas should defect from the grid quickly.
 
the authors of that article are intentionally leaving out the distinctive of the Australian market, and they know it.


View attachment 331627
we have about 8GW of solar downunder on rooftop install. so it not seen by the grid, but it is felt by the grid.

this is the reality in much of oz Power Plant Special
View attachment 331630
That to me is a stunning number $3,500 AUS for a 6.5kW array, installed (8.1kW for first 50!!)
you folks must have amazing incentives $3,500 AUS is $2,500 US, for a --->6.5kW array installed with a smart inverter.
It points to the rapid gain of renewables
edit:
also PV Watts
PVWatts Calculator
has climate data for Adelaide Australia and gives ~7,400kWh/yr with 6.5 array.
Are those number good or too low?
 
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That to me is a stunning number $3,500 AUS for a 6.5kW array, installed (8.1kW for first 50!!)
you folks must have amazing incentives $3,500 AUS is $2,500 US, for a --->6.5kW array installed with a smart inverter.
It points to the rapid gain of renewables
It's not incentives. The installation costs ("soft costs") are much lower in Australia than the US. Basically, installers in the US are spending a lot of money on advertising, profit margins, and red tape. In Australia, no money on ads, no money on red tape, and tiny profit margins. This has been documented for several years.

I wish we could get the same dynamic going in the US that is going in Australia, but I'm not sure what it'll take; the US market has been persistently overpriced relative to other markets for years.
 
I admit Buffalo has more snow than basically anywhere, but if you like skiing, snowboarding, cross-country skiing, sledding, or any other winter sport, that's a positive. :)
There's an amazing fish n chips pub across the street from the Buffalo Gigafactory. Two Brits own it and have a rugby league that plays on the gorgeous field right out the back of the bar. What more could you want!

2020 TMC investors "conference" perhaps?
 
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It's not incentives. The installation costs ("soft costs") are much lower in Australia than the US. Basically, installers in the US are spending a lot of money on advertising, profit margins, and red tape. In Australia, no money on ads, no money on red tape, and tiny profit margins. This has been documented for several years.

I wish we could get the same dynamic going in the US that is going in Australia, but I'm not sure what it'll take; the US market has been persistently overpriced relative to other markets for years.

i can answer that, but some in USA won't like it.

with consultation with csiro, (government scientists), australia framed their rebate similar to how USA has its wind incentives based upon output, (not cost) australia has its upfront solar incentives based upon modelled output. so alignment of roof, sunny days per year, angle of roof etc affected the incentives. as in the usa, sunny locations tend to be conservative, so generally it tended more to be installed by those who vote right instead of left. (similar to wind energy being in texas etc.)

In Australia, the solar incentives were supported by both sides of government, it was really created under the LNP (Howard) and then scaled out under labor (Rudd).

LNP rebates were just for 'low' income earners, and it design seemed to approximate 1/2 the cost of a system in a southern capital, so a $16,000 system would cost $8,000. what happened was that less urban, lower cost, sunnier australia could get an total install for $9,000, so $9,000-8,000 = $1,000 system. i actually showed a system to a work colleague (she qualified) that was nil cost, it had a $1,500 deposit that would be refunded when they got their money from gov. she never could bring herself to do it, it seemed to good to be true, she felt she would lose the deposit, only once it was no longer available did decide it was a good idea. this breaks the skepticism.

Labour expanded the availability of rebates for all, but reduced the amount per kWh, now it could scale out.
but the die is set, say a customer is comparing 2 similar systems, differing providers, one cost $16,000 - $8,000 = $8,000 and the other costs $12,000 - $8,000 = $4,000. the cheaper option wins.

and so, because the incentive is equalized on output, the cheapest option is leveraged far more. contrast with usa, the gov incentives is based upon cost, not output, so the most expensive option is leverages more. opposite effect to australia, and the usa incentive breeds political polarization.

summary, Australian government incentives were based upon output, not cost, output really leverages the cheapest, USA government incentives were based upon cost, which promotes the most expensive options, and discourages the cheapest.

as long as usa fed government bases their incentive upon cost and not output, persistent overpricing is rewarded, not discouraged.
 
Global demand for fossil fuels will peak in 2023, says thinktank
Global demand for fossil fuels will peak in 2023, says thinktank

Global demand for fossil fuels will peak in 2023, an influential thinktank has predicted, posing a significant risk to financial markets because trillions of dollars’ worth of oil, coal and gas assets could be left worthless.

Explosive growth in wind and solar will combine with action on climate change and slowing growth in energy needs to ensure that fossil fuel demand peaks in the 2020s, Carbon Tracker predicted.
 
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