mspohr
Well-Known Member
North Sea oil and gas drilling falls to lowest level since 1965
North Sea oil and gas drilling falls to lowest level since 1965
North Sea oil and gas drilling falls to lowest level since 1965
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Hey, that's the year WE have been predicting for peak oil.
Yeah, I've got total fossils peaking 2022 and oil in 2023. So I see this as close agreement.
California mandates 100 percent clean energy by 2045
This is awesome. I understand this basically requires CA to completely get off fossil fuels in all sectors for all practical purposes, with any residual emissions (flight, etc?) small enough to be absorbed naturally within the forests, etc., in CA.
This is awesome. I understand this basically requires CA to completely get off fossil fuels in all sectors for all practical purposes, with any residual emissions (flight, etc?) small enough to be absorbed naturally within the forests, etc., in CA.
Can Oil Demand Really Peak Within 5 Years? | OilPrice.com
So oil price.com has picked up on this. Nick Cunningham does a good job summarizing this. Two different groups are forecasting a 2023 peak. They both have an attitude that this is just obvious.
I think the closer we get the more clear this becomes. In a range 5 years, it pretty much comes down to estimating the rates of growth and calculating the time to impact. It's a bit like predicting a train wreck half a mile before it happens.
So oil price.com has picked up on this. Nick Cunningham does a good job summarizing this. Two different groups are forecasting a 2023 peak. They both have an attitude that this is just obvious.
I think the closer we get the more clear this becomes. In a range 5 years, it pretty much comes down to estimating the rates of growth and calculating the time to impact. It's a bit like predicting a train wreck half a mile before it happens.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
This is interesting
“The motor of change now lies in the emerging markets, which is where all the growth in energy demand lies,” the Carbon Tracker report argues. “They have less fossil fuel legacy infrastructure, rising energy dependency, and are anxious to seize the opportunities of the renewables age. We believe it highly likely therefore that emerging markets will increasingly source their energy demand growth from renewable sources not from fossil fuels.”
adiggs
Well-Known Member
There are none so blind as those who will not see. (there are none so blind as those who will not see - Wiktionary)
If the O&G folks want a sense of what's coming, they just need to look at the coal industry for insight.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
The last paragraphs of the Oilprice article are prescient:
"In other words, while some skeptics argue that the world will need fossil fuels for decades to come, that misses the importance of hitting the peak. The real pain for the fossil fuel industry comes much sooner. Once the peak is hit, the troubles start to accelerate. Demand starts to fall, so fossil fuel companies face lower prices for their products, lower valuations and ultimately stranded assets. “We should then expect a major reallocation of capital, bankruptcy of companies that are unprepared, and sector restructuring as those who prepared for the shift take over the assets of those that did not,” Carbon Tracker concluded.
Investors are not going to wait for the complete phase out of fossil fuels before they start to redeploy capital and shun fossil fuel investments; that shift occurs much sooner, arguably around the peak.
The U.S. coal industry is a perfect example of this dynamic. Coal miners have gone bankrupt, share prices are in the toilet, and yet coal still accounts for around a third of U.S. electricity. The disruption happened long before the phase out of coal (the U.S. will still be burning coal for years); it happened when demand really started to decline.
The same sort of disruption could start to hit oil and gas companies as soon as the 2020s."
I wonder if any of the Carbon Tracker people have been following our thread. We've been making these points for quite a while: the infrastructure savings of renewables and EV in emerging economies, investment crisis near the peak, and comparison with coal. I have had interactions with some Carbon Tracker people on Twitter.
Along with the infrastructure problem in emerging economies, you also have an energy trade deficit weigh heavily on these economies. We are starting to get reports that the increased price of oil is pushing India into a deeper trade deficit, which in turn may be weakening the value of the Indian Rupee. This was a problem before when India was a heavy importer of coal. They saw that solar could substantially cut their coal trade bill and made an abrupt shift to renewables. I think they will do the same for EVs. Their hang up right now is that they want to favor domestic production of vehicles and this only slows the transition. Too many chicken and egg issues to insist upon a fully grown domestic chicken appear. So I continue to have hope that India will transition to more constructive policies. At least the economic motives are there to do so.
Lest we think the oil industry can see the light, I leave you with this. Note especially empty denial of the concluding paragraph. Even DNV GL is not quite emotionally ready to see that natural gas will peak in about 5 to 10 years.
Gas Could Overtake Oil As The Largest U.S. Energy Source This Year | OilPrice.com
Along with the infrastructure problem in emerging economies, you also have an energy trade deficit weigh heavily on these economies. We are starting to get reports that the increased price of oil is pushing India into a deeper trade deficit, which in turn may be weakening the value of the Indian Rupee. This was a problem before when India was a heavy importer of coal. They saw that solar could substantially cut their coal trade bill and made an abrupt shift to renewables. I think they will do the same for EVs. Their hang up right now is that they want to favor domestic production of vehicles and this only slows the transition. Too many chicken and egg issues to insist upon a fully grown domestic chicken appear. So I continue to have hope that India will transition to more constructive policies. At least the economic motives are there to do so.
Lest we think the oil industry can see the light, I leave you with this. Note especially empty denial of the concluding paragraph. Even DNV GL is not quite emotionally ready to see that natural gas will peak in about 5 to 10 years.
Gas Could Overtake Oil As The Largest U.S. Energy Source This Year | OilPrice.com
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
India just slapped a 25% tariff on Chinese and Malaysian panels in an effort to support domestic producers. Problem is....there aren't any good domestic producers.
I feel like Modi's guys think of well intentioned plans to build domestic industry and then corrupt fossil interests push them thru.
India's problem will always be corruption. They're split into so many distinct regions, each with their own brand of obscene corruption. Gonna be hard to force national policy across such a decentralized group. China can just snap their fingers and it's implemented.
since you are talking Solar again
go to the EIA link and look at hard data, PV modules shipped and megawatt and gigawatt hours of electricity produced]U.S. States - Search - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
(net gen from Solar Photovoltaic, etc data only thru first 1/2 of 2018)
go to the EIA link and look at hard data, PV modules shipped and megawatt and gigawatt hours of electricity produced]U.S. States - Search - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
(net gen from Solar Photovoltaic, etc data only thru first 1/2 of 2018)
They're doing it to try to force China to open facilities there. It's not corruption. It's just standard protectionism. India is a protectionist country.
In response to the USA's tariffs, China cut domestic subsidies and it pushed manufacturers to take advantage of India's closing open window. India's just made a preemptive strike, to let China know it can't come in a back door next year.
India should be an enormous market for solar. Tariffs held it back, and Modi allowed a gap to develop the market to give manufacturers more incentive to build there. They didn't, and the tariffs are back.
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How Natural Gas Is Paving The Way To A Cleaner Energy Future | OilPrice.com
We need to challenge this narrative that natural gas is heroically bridging to a "clean energy future." I don't think it is actually true historically, and certainly not true prospectively at this point. Here's my response.
The story of the rise of natural gas in the US since 2000 is heroic, but pales in global context. Global coal consumption only recently peaked in 2013.
From 2000 to 2013, coal consumption grew 1,509 Mtoe, while natural gas consumption grew 834 Mtoe. Clearly, natural gas production was nowhere close to matching the growing demand for coal. Neither was non-hydro renewables, which grew by 233 Mtoe in this 13 years. At best, gas merely slowed the advance of coal. We were not yet bridge to anything. It was just two fossil fuels duking it out for market share.
Coal finally peaked in 2013. From 2013 to 2017, coal consumption feel 138 Mtoe as gas grew 257 Mtoe and non-hydro renewables grew 204 Mtoe. Solar alone contributed 108 Mtoe. Without this acceleration of renewables, natural gas alone would have been insufficient to halt the rise of coal.
Finally, we are on the bridge. Coal is finally in decline on a global basis. Natural gas alone was unable to abate growth in coal. Only with the contributions from renewables are we now able to stem the tide of rising emissions. Going forward renewables are increasingly limited by the scope of the electricity markets. We need little gas to grow into that market. If natural gas really is to be helpful in a transition to zero emissions, growth in gas demand should focus on non-electrical markets. Specifically gas should displace coal and oil in the heat and transportation markets. Gas competing with wind and solar in the power markets is not really helpful anymore, and it only pays about $3/MMBtu anyway. Gas can earn a higher price and better help a clean energy transition in the heat and transport fuels markets.
We need to challenge this narrative that natural gas is heroically bridging to a "clean energy future." I don't think it is actually true historically, and certainly not true prospectively at this point. Here's my response.
The story of the rise of natural gas in the US since 2000 is heroic, but pales in global context. Global coal consumption only recently peaked in 2013.
From 2000 to 2013, coal consumption grew 1,509 Mtoe, while natural gas consumption grew 834 Mtoe. Clearly, natural gas production was nowhere close to matching the growing demand for coal. Neither was non-hydro renewables, which grew by 233 Mtoe in this 13 years. At best, gas merely slowed the advance of coal. We were not yet bridge to anything. It was just two fossil fuels duking it out for market share.
Coal finally peaked in 2013. From 2013 to 2017, coal consumption feel 138 Mtoe as gas grew 257 Mtoe and non-hydro renewables grew 204 Mtoe. Solar alone contributed 108 Mtoe. Without this acceleration of renewables, natural gas alone would have been insufficient to halt the rise of coal.
Finally, we are on the bridge. Coal is finally in decline on a global basis. Natural gas alone was unable to abate growth in coal. Only with the contributions from renewables are we now able to stem the tide of rising emissions. Going forward renewables are increasingly limited by the scope of the electricity markets. We need little gas to grow into that market. If natural gas really is to be helpful in a transition to zero emissions, growth in gas demand should focus on non-electrical markets. Specifically gas should displace coal and oil in the heat and transportation markets. Gas competing with wind and solar in the power markets is not really helpful anymore, and it only pays about $3/MMBtu anyway. Gas can earn a higher price and better help a clean energy transition in the heat and transport fuels markets.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
I really don't think we should encourage natural gas use for anything. We should move to install all electric infrastructure for heating and transport. When you combine the direct CO2 from NG with the methane emissions, it's really worse than coal. Any investment in NG infrastructure will continue to pollute for 30 to 50 years and that is not acceptable.
It's very feasible to convert NG heating and transport to electric. I've done this at my house where heating (space and water) has been converted to electric (resistance and heat pumps) and, of course, transport with my Tesla... all powered by my solar panels.
I started a thread on this subject here:
Natural gas, a bridge to nowhere?
We're on the same page. I'm not actually encouraging growth in gas consumption. I'm just pointing out that growth gas consumption in the power markets is less helpful than elsewhere. It is less helpful because it only slows the pace at which renewables can be added to the grid. There is a limited amount of thermal capacity being retired each year. I want renewables and batteries to satisfy all of the growth and replacement capacity that the grid needs each year. Anything short of that is slowing the transition down. As gas demand from power generation goes into decline natural gas will retreat into niches of heat, transport and petrochem. So I am trying to say that the gas industry needs to focus on these niches and not look to power markets for growth.
Longer-term I see a much smaller market for gas. We need it to be small enough that fossil natural gas can be fully replaced with renewable sources of gas. So a certain amount of infrastructure must be maintained over the decades, but we need to be very prudent about it. For example, building out a gas power plant so that someday it can run on renewable gas does not make a whole lot of sense to me given where storage is going over the next decade. But if Disney builds a cruise liner to add to their fleet, I'm glad it will run on LNG, rather than bunker fuel or diesel. In the long-run, that ship could be fueled by liquid renewable gas, maybe even liquid hydrogen produced from surplus wind and solar power. Moreover, that cruise liner could be fitted with massive batteries that recharge every day she is docked at shore. But at this present moment, battery options are not sufficiently cheap and compact to build a completely battery electric cruise liner. So what should cruise ship operator do in the interim? Right now I think a battery-LNG hybrid makes most sense and can be adapted over time to renewable fuels and larger capacity batteries. I also think it is better to build an LNG powered ship today than a gas generator on land. The latter is much closer to obsolescence in face of advancing cleaner technologies.
No one has reacted to how this analysis demonstrates that natural gas really has not lead to decrease in coal production. This is probably counterintuitive for most people. But it is important to understand. The peak in coal did not happen until renewables were strong enough to make it happen. The narrative that natural gas has decreased coal consumption only works in particular markets, notably the US. It does not hold globally. In many markets gas is still more expensive than coal for generating power. So it is critical for renewables to undercut both gas and coal on the cost to generate power. So ultimately the gains that gas has made is not because it is so great for the climate, but because in some places it is cheap. Calling it a bridge just dresses up ordinary market competition into some sort of greenwashing propaganda.
10.3 Gigawatt hours PV top 16 states
U.S. States - Search - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
(Hawaii is not that big a state area wise)
California wants to be 100% renewables in 26 years, by 2015
U.S. States - Search - U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA)
(Hawaii is not that big a state area wise)
California wants to be 100% renewables in 26 years, by 2015
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