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Signature delivery now mid/late January

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http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/52935-Production-ramp-up-discussion/page2
Other than the start dates, I am looking a bit more accurate. I threw a WAG for the first 500ish cars taking 7 weeks to deliver. Sounds also like the holidays will cause a dip in production which should be fully expected. An production facility in any industry should expect a decent percentage of the work force to be off that time frame. Many industries (Detroit cars) just shut down.

Week ending# producedCumulative total
10/2/20152525
10/9/20152550
10/16/201550100
10/23/201550150
10/30/2015100250
11/6/2015100350
11/13/2015250600
11/20/2015250850
11/27/2015100950
12/4/20152501200
12/11/20155001700
12/18/20157502450
12/25/20155002950
1/1/20165003450
1/8/20167504200
1/15/201610005200
1/22/201610006200
1/29/201610007200

I wish you were right, but I suspect that even this ramp is faster than we are going to see. Not by a lot, but I expect 20-40% slower than this, alas.

I believe the Jan. delivery dates people are starting to get. I am just using Occam's Razor: It is simpler to assume that this is the real story and that the ramp is going slowly, than to postulate stock manipulation with such straight-forward messages from multiple independent sources.
 
I just spoke to the Service Center regarding delivery dates. I was initially Sign X #911 then got my VIN last Thursday and was moved up to #502. I'm getting Signature Red, 20" Wheels, Ludicrous Mode, Black Leather Interior, wtih the 7 seat configuration, no towing but getting the bike rack attachment. I live in Miami and was told today that I should expect delivery late December to early January. I was pretty shocked and disappointed. That means they are making less than 100 X's per week off the line. Don't get me wrong I'm excited to have an X and get early but still once my configuration was confirmed on October 7th, I thought it would be 4-6 weeks at most to get my car now it's looking like 6-8 weeks from today. Well this is my latest update!

Keep on Keepin' on

Tony

I may be wrong, and anyone is free to disagree, but it seems there's simply a holdup getting the back seats and/or windshields. The good news is there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully it is the final opening to full production.
 
I may be wrong, and anyone is free to disagree, but it seems there's simply a holdup getting the back seats and/or windshields. The good news is there seems to be a light at the end of the tunnel. Hopefully it is the final opening to full production.

As long as that light is not the bear train coming right at us I am good with that.
 
The rumors have been that the seats and windshields are the hold up, but we really don't know. Even if it is just the windshield, so what? We still don't know what their ramp up time is.

What worries me is that the windshield has been described as very big and complicated. It is possible that the windshield manufacturer will never be able to ramp up production, leaving Tesla with one heck of a redesign problem.

Bottom line, until the X ships in volume, we don't know anything.
 
Thanks for the warm reception. Reminds me of Reddit. Seems there might be a more positive way to welcome newcomers than to accuse them of being trolls. Moving on.

Welcome to the fraternity, where we start with Hell Week. Perhaps it's worse because your location (in Texas?) is essentially undefined but your screen name seems derivative of the Marshall Islands, and fifteen minutes later another pledge posts a similar claim.

In any case, welcome Brother! :smile:
 
I don't think we have any reason to doubt the OP. Seems similar to what happened with the S. Founders delivered early summer (June if I recall correctly). Sig #385 didn't arrive until the second week in November in NY some 5 months later.

Not that I have a say on these matters but I support a presumption of good intention for new posters. I first discovered this forum when I did a google search for a tesla support group because I was so frustrated with how disorganized my Signature S delivery was. I feel like I was given a very gracious welcome at the time even though my first post had a grumpy tone.
 
Sig X 309, VIN 265 Ordered 9/15 and Sig 593, No VIN Yet, Ordered 9/24
Call from DS this afternoon. First car mid December second car late December
Identical cars except seats, the first is six seat the second seven seat
Sig red, black and black, figured ash, 20's, Ludicrus, tow and heat.

For the troll patrol I am sitting at the Super Charger in Wickenbug AZ charging a P85D which is my third model S car. Auto pilot worked absolutely beautifully, from Phoenix, on new asphalt with fresh stripes. Absolutely amazing.

When the X's deliver every driver in the family will be driving a Tesla and the old VIN 9xxx car will be parked at a second home.
Then I get to decide if reservation 6936 will replace my P85D or my daughters P85+. I think we will have plenty of time to decide.

Time to roll, I have enough charge to make Kingman AZ then Vegas.
 
Sig X 309, VIN 265 Ordered 9/15 and Sig 593, No VIN Yet, Ordered 9/24
Call from DS this afternoon. First car mid December second car late December
Identical cars except seats, the first is six seat the second seven seat
Sig red, black and black, figured ash, 20's, Ludicrus, tow and heat.

For the troll patrol I am sitting at the Super Charger in Wickenbug AZ charging a P85D which is my third model S car. Auto pilot worked absolutely beautifully, from Phoenix, on new asphalt with fresh stripes. Absolutely amazing.

When the X's deliver every driver in the family will be driving a Tesla and the old VIN 9xxx car will be parked at a second home.
Then I get to decide if reservation 6936 will replace my P85D or my daughters P85+. I think we will have plenty of time to decide.

Time to roll, I have enough to charge to make Kingman AZ then Vegas.

Jelly! Super jelly!
 
US Signature reservation 13xx. Completed configuration on 9/30 and Tesla finalized on 10/6. Configuration is 6 seat, no ludicrous, signature red, 22", going to Texas. Just got an update email from my DS today saying that they are estimating delivery mid to late January. Still no Vin assigned.

Seems likely that they're batching them for production and either my config or location is slowing me down compared to others who configured around the same time.

Steve

From my DS:

"The good news is that a VIN assignment does provide an insight into production timing. Right now we are looking at your Model X entering production in mid-November."

My VIN is 0006X

This should allow for delivery the first week of December. Just a guess.
 
I believe it was Bonnie in another thread pointed out that the Founders cars are more hand built than the Signature and standard production cars. The delay between delivery of the Founders cars and the Signature cars has to do with getting the last kinks in the automated production procedures worked out. It sounds like they now got them worked out and they are able to make predictions about delivery dates.

If they are having parts supply problems and the seat deliveries are a problem, they can build the cars and just store them until the seats come in. If windshields are the bottleneck that would do more to hold up production because I believe the front windshield goes in before the whole structure is complete.

I was working at Boeing when they started production of the 747-400. Not long after initial deliveries a bug was found in the navigation computer (it couldn't handle flying directly over the north pole) and the FAA grounded the fleet until it was fixed. My group had a small part in fixing the problem and I went up to Everett one day with one of the guys on the team working the problem. They had the production line going full tilt and were parking the 747s in as tight as they could waiting for the new navigation units. It was sort of surreal to see 747s crammed into every corner big enough both at the plant and adjacent Paine Field.
 
...Mark, if you're reading this, do you have an estimated delivery date yet?
The only delivery dates I see are the posts at TMC. No emails or calls from Tesla Motors have occurred regarding my teenage VIN number. Back in September, I was verbally told by local delivery persons that delivery would occur, "By the end of the year". Looking back, I think they knew best to not speculate on an early delivery. One person did mention that our Model X vehicles would not be leaving the factory until they were perfect.

(IMHO, perhaps the Consumer Reports "recommended" change for Model S are creating new headaches to make sure that every Model X is perfect. This is an opportunity for fewer reportable issues and a future where Model X will retain the "recommended" title.)

On the bright side: Every day of wait for Model X is a day to experience the new interface and performance quality that 7.0 provides when driving Model S.

Unlike other auto manufacturers, we get a "new car experience" with every software update. That is what makes waiting for the next Tesla electric vehicle so much easier.