Signature delivery now mid/late January

[mzpolo]

Sig X 309, VIN 265 Ordered 9/15 and Sig 593, No VIN Yet, Ordered 9/24
Call from DS this afternoon. First car mid December second car late December
Identical cars except seats, the first is six seat the second seven seat
Sig red, black and black, figured ash, 20's, Ludicrus, tow and heat.

For the troll patrol I am sitting at the Super Charger in Wickenbug AZ charging a P85D which is my third model S car. Auto pilot worked absolutely beautifully, from Phoenix, on new asphalt with fresh stripes. Absolutely amazing.

When the X's deliver every driver in the family will be driving a Tesla and the old VIN 9xxx car will be parked at a second home.
Then I get to decide if reservation 6936 will replace my P85D or my daughters P85+. I think we will have plenty of time to decide.

Time to roll, I have enough charge to make Kingman AZ then Vegas.

I am available for adoption....

 

[henryp]

Arizona deliveries in Dec; TX and FL deliveries in Jan? Maybe Tesla is sending them through the Panama canal ...

 

[Quant]

Arizona deliveries in Dec; TX and FL deliveries in Jan? Maybe Tesla is sending them through the Panama canal ...

Well, unfortunately I think Tesla's mass manufacturing expertise and experience todate, is more like a Root Canal.....so I think it will be taking the slow winding path through the Root Canal vs the Panama Canal. LOL!

I think, so far, Elon Musk has shown incredible innovation, future forward thinking and tech prowess, but when it comes to executing production and delivery, so far, I think Elon Musk gets a C grade , at best.

Elon Musk and Tesla are woefully behind Apple, and even the legacy manufacturers when it comes to efficient, and super long- term quality 'production' at rates that are required to scale up Tesla into a legitimate auto ' manufacurer '.

Only in that sense, I would say that Elon Musk and Tesla have a lot to prove ..... I am surprised that even JB Straubel seems to stumble and just not have the chops for leading and managing mass manufacturing a la Mercedes, BMW or even Honda. They just have not figured this out yet, and I hope they do in the next 12-18 months.

I am still long and have not sold a share and will not for many, many years.....but I am beginning to think that Elon and JB need to hand over Tesla Auto to Apple, or another company like MB or BMW....I think Stanford and Wharton guys ...and even Silicon Valley guys are phenomenal at tech and innovation, but they are C's when it comes to manufacturing at scale, in a cost efficient manner, where they can generate good margins and sustain long term quality like a Honda , for example.

I think Tesla should focus on Energy Storage ( which will be hugely easier to manufacture at scale ) and hand over Tesla Auto to the non Silicon Valley practical , grind it out everyday kinda folks....like MB , BMW or even Honda or Toyota.

This is their biggest challenge, IMO !

 

[sub]

I'm surprised that so many people are taking these January delivery claims as fact. I'm not claiming the opposite to be true but I still do not see enough evidence to accept these claims. 1-2 days later and still no forum regulars have validated these claims with direct information from Tesla? Still very fishy to me.

 

[Mark Z]

Easy for you to say, Mark, I have a pre autopilot Model S! I got to use Autopilot one day on a loaner while my car was in the shop. I now have Autopilot withdrawal, I need my fix!

I have a Signature S without any sensors. I am pleased with the interface and performance differences in 7.0 even with the older Model S.

I had to drive a friend's Model S to experience Autopilot.

 

[Gerasimental]

I'm surprised that so many people are taking these January delivery claims as fact. I'm not claiming the opposite to be true but I still do not see enough evidence to accept these claims. 1-2 days later and still no forum regulars have validated these claims with direct information from Tesla? Still very fishy to me.

True, but I also find it very odd that people with VINs into the 500s (I think) have been given delivery estimates, but Bonnie hasn't yet? Firmly in 'I'll believe it when I see it' mode.

 

[Cosmacelf]

OK, just got off the phone with my delivery specialist. I'm signature VIN #22x. Here's the scoop (these are quotes, or closely paraphrased quotes):

- Vins are not a reliable indicator of production order.
- The goal is some Signature deliveries in December, all Sigs by early 2016.
- Factory tours in December are still a go.

My take: Sounds like a small number of Model X will be delivered no earlier than December (no deliveries in November). The vast majority of Sig owners will be waiting until sometime in 2016.

 

[vandacca]

I think, so far, Elon Musk has shown incredible innovation, future forward thinking and tech prowess, but when it comes to executing production and delivery, so far, I think Elon Musk gets a C grade , at best.

Elon Musk and Tesla are woefully behind Apple, and even the legacy manufacturers when it comes to efficient, and super long- term quality 'production' at rates that are required to scale up Tesla into a legitimate auto ' manufacturer '.

Only in that sense, I would say that Elon Musk and Tesla have a lot to prove ..... I am surprised that even JB Straubel seems to stumble and just not have the chops for leading and managing mass manufacturing a la Mercedes, BMW or even Honda. They just have not figured this out yet, and I hope they do in the next 12-18 months.

I don't think anyone can disagree with your @Quant. However, I do believe that Tesla can improve and does intend on improving. Their attitude from the beginning was let's figure this out as we move along, and not worry about mistakes along the way. It's the "Move fast and break things" attitude. I think they'll get it in the next 5 years. They have to get there if they plan to be successful with Model 3.

 

[aesculus]

OK, just got off the phone with my delivery specialist. I'm signature VIN #22x. Here's the scoop (these are quotes, or closely paraphrased quotes):

- Vins are not a reliable indicator of production order.
- The goal is some Signature deliveries in December, all Sigs by early 2016.
- Factory tours in December are still a go.

My take: Sounds like a small number of Model X will be delivered no earlier than December (no deliveries in November). The vast majority of Sig owners will be waiting until sometime in 2016.

Doing Tesla date math and normal 'early 2016' statement deduction, this could mean end of March or if you want to get extreme, end on June.

 

[chickensevil]

True, but I also find it very odd that people with VINs into the 500s (I think) have been given delivery estimates, but Bonnie hasn't yet? Firmly in 'I'll believe it when I see it' mode.

And yet, every day that goes by and they don't get any promising news of something *sooner* than what is reported makes those dates even more likely. Consider that they have to give owners enough time to sort out financing, so at least a 30 day notice of delivery, this indicates to me that at this time Sig #2 is not likely to get delivered until November 27th at the earliest... So therefore the December deliveries make sense at this point for *some* of the cars, with the rest slipping into January. I don't like it anymore than most everyone else here, but I think this is the reality we are going to have to live with

 

[ohmman]

The ghost of AnxietyRanger just showed up to tell me the ghost of Eds came by and whispered "told you soooooooooo...."

 

[uselesslogin]

So about 100 Model X this year? If we believe what some have said everything is going to the most recent plan it is just that it hasn't been publicly disclosed.

 

[Gerasimental]

And yet, every day that goes by and they don't get any promising news of something *sooner* than what is reported makes those dates even more likely. Consider that they have to give owners enough time to sort out financing, so at least a 30 day notice of delivery, this indicates to me that at this time Sig #2 is not likely to get delivered until November 27th at the earliest... So therefore the December deliveries make sense at this point for *some* of the cars, with the rest slipping into January. I don't like it anymore than most everyone else here, but I think this is the reality we are going to have to live with

Absolutely agree with you. I am merely confused by the complete chaos and inconsistency of communication and information we have got. To what extent this can be attributed to various parties, I don't care to speculate, but MX progress has sure been a pretty opaque affair.

 

[30seconds]

Well, unfortunately I think Tesla's mass manufacturing expertise and experience todate, is more like a Root Canal.....so I think it will be taking the slow winding path through the Root Canal vs the Panama Canal. LOL!

I think, so far, Elon Musk has shown incredible innovation, future forward thinking and tech prowess, but when it comes to executing production and delivery, so far, I think Elon Musk gets a C grade , at best.

Elon Musk and Tesla are woefully behind Apple, and even the legacy manufacturers when it comes to efficient, and super long- term quality 'production' at rates that are required to scale up Tesla into a legitimate auto ' manufacurer '.

Only in that sense, I would say that Elon Musk and Tesla have a lot to prove ..... I am surprised that even JB Straubel seems to stumble and just not have the chops for leading and managing mass manufacturing a la Mercedes, BMW or even Honda. They just have not figured this out yet, and I hope they do in the next 12-18 months.

I am still long and have not sold a share and will not for many, many years.....but I am beginning to think that Elon and JB need to hand over Tesla Auto to Apple, or another company like MB or BMW....I think Stanford and Wharton guys ...and even Silicon Valley guys are phenomenal at tech and innovation, but they are C's when it comes to manufacturing at scale, in a cost efficient manner, where they can generate good margins and sustain long term quality like a Honda , for example.

I think Tesla should focus on Energy Storage ( which will be hugely easier to manufacture at scale ) and hand over Tesla Auto to the non Silicon Valley practical , grind it out everyday kinda folks....like MB , BMW or even Honda or Toyota.

This is their biggest challenge, IMO !

Honestly I can't follow the logic that Apple, MB or BMW would improve manufacturing scale up. Apple manufacturers computers of various sizes and basically nothing else. Does Dell, Lenovo or HP also have the experience to bring to the Telsa supply chain? In terms of MB and BMW they have had decades to create compelling hybrids and EVs. I have yet to see anything good out of them on either front. Plus their IT is a joke. How many years did it take to get to their currently crappy in car entertainment systems? No internet radio, no cars that upgrade their firmware over the air, hello autopilot?

What you want is a company that can bring next gen technologies to users in a compelling and scaleable package, like Apple, that knows how to manufacturer quality cars at scale, like MB or BMW. Doesn't exist yet, but Tesla is way ahead of everyone else.

 

[Blastphemy]

Can't wait for the November 3rd shareholder call. I think we should all take guesses as to what excuses Elon will be giving for claiming the Model X was "delivered" at the end of Q3 when only six hand-built vehicles were given to insiders to beta test and not one single Model X has been delivered since... not even Sig #1 so Elon could claim "deliveries of Signature Model Xs have begun for Q4."

Ridiculous. I hope Elon comes clean, because I'm starting to question the taste of Tesla Kool-Aid. If the car I was promised by "the end of the year" doesn't show up 'til after June 2016, there's a very real chance of cancellation. I can only wait so long due to the imminent termination of my current lease.

 

[Macgaver]

I don't complain that Tesla is not fast enough, but I think they should not have said delivery-in-end-of-Q3. Apple, you know late, but you know exactly when it launch, and at that day, when you can finally purchase or pre-order, you have a precise estimate of the delivery date.

Tesla have a much more complex product, not sure we can compare both companies. But I am getting tired of the fake delivery date, fake "fast ramp up", ... This is because of them that we have to guess/approximate ourselves and fail every time.

 

[FredTMC]

Yep, Fortunately (mercifully), we will all get updated in a week about Tesla's guidance for Q4 overall and production for MX sigs specifically. I really feel bad for MX sig owners and their lenghty wait. I still firmly believe we will see hundreds of MX deliveries in Q4. Furthermore, I still think tesla has a solid plan to hit 2015 lowered guidance of 50K deliveries minimum. I think MX slow ramp is certainly baked into the depressed stock price along with an expectation that tesla may not hit guidance. Bottom line is that if 50k is reaffirmed during Earnings Call, the stock will move up big.

 

[Moparposterchild]

I understand everyone's anxious anticipation, but for me I would rather wait a few more months and get a better product AND have my brand new Model X be a 2016 model for the new year instead of a 2015.

 

[gfb107]

So far, all known Model X VINs have 2016 as the model year, including those already delivered. So there won't be any difference in terms of Model year if your X is produced in calendar year 2015 or early 2016.

I understand everyone's anxious anticipation, but for me I would rather wait a few more months and get a better product AND have my brand new Model X be a 2016 model for the new year instead of a 2015.

 

[Quant]

Honestly I can't follow the logic that Apple, MB or BMW would improve manufacturing scale up. Apple manufacturers computers of various sizes and basically nothing else. Does Dell, Lenovo or HP also have the experience to bring to the Telsa supply chain? In terms of MB and BMW they have had decades to create compelling hybrids and EVs. I have yet to see anything good out of them on either front. Plus their IT is a joke. How many years did it take to get to their currently crappy in car entertainment systems? No internet radio, no cars that upgrade their firmware over the air, hello autopilot?

What you want is a company that can bring next gen technologies to users in a compelling and scaleable package, like Apple, that knows how to manufacturer quality cars at scale, like MB or BMW. Doesn't exist yet, but Tesla is way ahead of everyone else.

Tesla IS way ahead of everyone else in every other area....except....manufacturing at scale...and manufacturing with long term quality and reliability. I have only driven MB's and BMW's for over 25 years....many, many of those...4 cars at a time, for 3 of us....and want to buy a Tesla!

So far, only an investor in Tesla, and for the long-term ( and we are not talking a few hundred shares ) ....and I expect to switch over to Tesla in the coming years...AFTER they have figured out quality long-term production at scale.

I do not like having to go to service , except for routine maintenance, and usually trade all my cars in about the 3 year timeframe, on average! I have been very lucky with all my cars for decades...and cannot stand shoddy production quality!

Sorry, but I do not believe that Elon Musk has proven his skills at MANAGING quality production at scale. This requires a different mind set than the innovation and creative mind set of Silicon Valley. Apple has been wise to outsource and manage the supply chain, quality and scale up fast.

Laying out the Model 3 specs and giving competitors who already have scale, and those know how to manage scale, a heads up on design in March 2016 may not be wise, IMO. No more than 1 year, I would suggest!

Tesla's competitive advantage will be the Gigafactory, IMO. This will be their saving grace !