So, when is APv2 going to be noticeably better than APv1? Or is it already?

[HankLloydRight]

What state was ap1 in, 11 months after it was enabled? I expect in somewhat similar state where ap2 is right now. Any insight on this from owners works help.

AP1 was just the MobileEye platform transplanted into MS/MX. It had years and years of development and success prior to that. Also, EAP and FSD wasn't promised for AP1, so 11 months after AP1 was released, it pretty much met most of the expectations set when it was released. They were called "Autopilot Convenience Features". AP2 OTOH, has been sold and promised to deliver full EAP and FSD by now, and it hasn't even reached full AP1 parity yet. And no way is even the Great and Powerful Elon Musk going to be able to summon his car, fully autonomously, from LA to a parking lot in NYC by the end of this year. And if he does, it's going to have so many disclaimers and exceptions, they might as well not call it FSD.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

AP1 was just the MobileEye platform transplanted into MS/MX. It had years and years of development and success prior to that. Also, EAP and FSD wasn't promised for AP1, so 11 months after AP1 was released, it pretty much met most of the expectations set when it was released. They were called "Autopilot Convenience Features". AP2 OTOH, has been sold and promised to deliver full EAP and FSD by now, and it hasn't even reached full AP1 parity yet. And no way is even the Great and Powerful Elon Musk going to be able to summon his car, fully autonomously, from LA to a parking lot in NYC by the end of this year. And if he does, it's going to have so many disclaimers and exceptions, they might as well not call it FSD.

Quick disclaimer, I realize what Tesla has promised and what was delivered is entirely two different things. However, You need to turn that around and rethink what it looks like from side of ap1 operation.

Mobile eye (ap1) was in development for about a decade before in 2014 Tesla said they will put their hardware into their car.
In 2015, ap1 was finally enabled.
What was ap1 stability in 2016, 11 months after it was enabled, didn't they actually have someone die? I realize it was actually two traffic deaths (1 in China, 1 in Florida).

Here comes Tesla in 2016 after deaths and says, let's replace Mobile eye and delivers their own hardware.

What is ap2 stability in 2017? About the same as ap1. Here is why:
in stark terms, no one died. Let's hope it stays this way.
In gray terms, ap2 stability on road at 11 months is about the same where ap1 stability was 11 months after it was enabled.

Why do we think Tesla engineers are capable?
Tesla Ap2 team did not have a decade to get their expertise like mobile eye team and yet stability is close. Parity is somewhat close as well.

You tell me 80/20 rule, yes that's a good rule until you realize that mobile ap1 80% is somewhat stable lvl2, while Tesla ap2+ 80% is lvl 3+. If you have ap2+ Tesla, im betting by 3-5 year of ownership, lvl3 will be available + some lvl4.

 

[HankLloydRight]

What was ap1 stability in 2016, 11 months after it was enabled, didn't they actually have someone die? I realize it was actually two traffic deaths (1 in China, 1 in Florida).

Correlation is not causation. The Florida death was multiple factors, driver inattention being the biggest one. NHTSA said that AP1 played a part, in that it didn't nag the driver enough to pay attention, which was promptly fixed in both AP1 and AP2. AP1 alone is not responsible for that accident.

And based on multiple posts on TMC from real AP2 owners (who were previous AP1 drivers), most claim that AP2 is not yet up to par with AP1.

 

[⚡️ELECTROMAN⚡️]

It's nothing but hubris to dump mobileye which has been developing their code and platform for several years, and think you can duplicate and even surpass it inside of one year, starting from scratch. If that's not hubris, I don't know what is.

Tesla was built on hubris. Some people seem to get away with a lot of hubris. Hubris doesn't mean AP2 won't live on to become a great system. FSD most likely not, but who really knows.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

I don't think anyone really knows what happened between the companies, as there are huge egos on both sides of the table, and huge PR machines to spin it any way each respective side wants to spin it.

We can only speculate. I suspect Elon wanted more direct control over the AP development, ME wouldn't capitulate to that, and Elon just said "fine, we'll do it without you". Game over.

The bottom line is, one side dumped the other, and Tesla had to start at square zero to develop their own system. If it weren't for the egos (on both sides), they probably could have worked something out that was beneficial for both companies AND all their customers.

But instead, we now have AP2.

I have seen nothing to support egos on the side of MobilEye. They seem to have a great relationship with pretty much the entire rest of the industry. They are not known as an egoistic player at all.

 

[R.S]

Yes, struggle with it every day at work.

So maybe that should answer the question of "What will happen in the coming 11 months?"

 

[Sunshine State]

The fact that ap1 and ap2 are somewhat comparable, a year after they dumped mobile eye, is a testament it's not just hubris and not just marketing. There are definitely very smart engineers at work, working full time to make things happen.

Driving both back to back I would tend to disagree that AP2 is comparable yet, not saying they are not working on it but AP2 makes many moves that you have to always be on guard against. If it wasn't for AP1 people would marvel at AP2, it's just not there yet, hopefully someday.

 

[R.S]

Driving both back to back I would tend to disagree that AP2 is comparable yet, not saying they are not working on it but AP2 makes many moves that you have to always be on guard against. If it wasn't for AP1 people would marvel at AP2, it's just not there yet, hopefully someday.

You touch on a important subject here. There is a difference between what the system is allowed to do and what it is capable of. AP2 is allowed to do similar things as AP1, but it isn't as capable in doing them.

 

[dhanson865]

I don't think anyone really knows what happened between the companies, as there are huge egos on both sides of the table, and huge PR machines to spin it any way each respective side wants to spin it.

We can only speculate. I suspect Elon wanted more direct control over the AP development, ME wouldn't capitulate to that, and Elon just said "fine, we'll do it without you". Game over.

The bottom line is, one side dumped the other, and Tesla had to start at square zero to develop their own system. If it weren't for the egos (on both sides), they probably could have worked something out that was beneficial for both companies AND all their customers.

But instead, we now have AP2.

AP2 motherboard has mount points for both the MobilEye and Nvidia chips and was designed to use both with the AP2 software.

You can definitely say we don't know every detail of how it went down, but you can also say Tesla clearly intended to continue to use both chips during the overlap/development phase of AP2. I'd guess they wanted MoblieEye to be the primary and Nvidia to be the secondary until some software revision at which point the switch occurs and Nvidia becomes the primary and MobileEye is the redundant backup ready to take over at a moments notice. Maybe that was the plan all along Let Nvidia be the primary with a fail over to MobileEye. As the software gets better the fail over occurs less and less often.

Somewhere down the road in a year or two Tesla would have stopped buying mobileEye chips or would have been willing to keep them as a vestigial backup at a lower price point.

MobileEye didn't want that money or wasn't willing to let their chip be used in a dual controller system. Either way MobileEye was the one that said No as far as I'm concerned.

Them asking for too high a price is the same as them keeping the price the same and just saying No we won't sell you any.

Tesla had a plan, MobileEye said no to that plan at the old price and then asked for new terms that forced Tesla to put the board out there with one chip missing.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

So maybe that should answer the question of "What will happen in the coming 11 months?"

I work for Multi billion company that keeps on growing at a moderate pace. Not sure why you assumed otherwise . In other words, Tesla will make succeed as I believe their processes are better than the ones used where I am. My opinion is based on articles about EM work etiquette and principles.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Correlation is not causation. The Florida death was multiple factors, driver inattention being the biggest one. NHTSA said that AP1 played a part, in that it didn't nag the driver enough to pay attention, which was promptly fixed in both AP1 and AP2. AP1 alone is not responsible for that accident.

And based on multiple posts on TMC from real AP2 owners (who were previous AP1 drivers), most claim that AP2 is not yet up to par with AP1.

Again, it seems everyone comparing 2 year old ap1 with 1 year old ap2. Is ap1 better? Probably, but it's got 2 years field operation and decade of research behind it. A year from now, let's compare 3 year old ap1 and 2 year old ap2 and I bet most will say the opposite (I.e. ap2 is better than ap1).

 

[Sunshine State]

Again, it seems everyone comparing 2 year old ap1 with 1 year old ap2. Is ap1 better? Probably, but it's got 2 years field operation and decade of research behind it. A year from now, let's compare 3 year old ap1 and 2 year old ap2 and I bet most will say the opposite (I.e. ap2 is better than ap1).

Thats just speculation but let's hope it's true. Just in time for early AP2 buyers to trade in their Tesla cars. Not very good enjoyment for hard earned dollars.

 

[R.S]

I work for Multi billion company that keeps on growing at a moderate pace. Not sure why you assumed otherwise . In other words, Tesla will make succeed as I believe their processes are better than the ones used where I am. My opinion is based on articles about EM work etiquette and principles.

Again, Brooks's law. If you bring in many new people because you can't keep your deadlines, those people will slow down the project even more. So not very much will happen in the next 11 months, if Brooks is to believed.

 

[Matias]

Hubris - assumption on your part. Let us know if you get facts to support this point.

Tesla told in September 2016, that EAP would be ready by the end of the year. If that is not hubris, I don't know what is..

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Tesla told in September 2016, that EAP would be ready by the end of the year. If that is not hubris, I don't know what is..

There were multiple marketing statements from Tesla that were completely outlandish. some of them, Tesla delivered on time. most of them, Tesla delivered late. The key word is delivered. If they didn't, stock would no have gone above$30.

 

[HankLloydRight]

The key word is delivered.

Just curious how long you've been around here?

There are tons of things Tesla/Elon has never delivered.

Still waiting for the SDK from 2013.
Still waiting for the new browser from 2014. Elon mentioned Chrome years ago. Where is it? They updated the kernel, but none of the promised UI updates came along with it.
Still waiting for mobile device mirroring from 2015.
Still waiting for UI overhaul from 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 (or at least fixing ANY of the bugs that have lasted this long). Every UI update has been a downgrade and introduced new bugs. But they do have time for "More Cowbell" and "Rainbow Road".
Still waiting on about 100 bugs to be fixed in the Media Player that used to work pretty well but now falls way behind media software written 15 years ago. My Rio Riot from 2002 does a better job.

As well as all the EAP and FSD promises made when AP2 was released. I think Elon promised AP1 parity by early 2017, and we're still waiting for that. It took them that long just go get automatic high-beams working in AP2. AP2 still doesn't have rain sensing wipers. And FSD is nowhere in sight (even disregarding the regulatory hurdles, I'm talking just the software).

So please don't claim that Tesla always delivers, even "late". Those things (delivered or not) really have no effect on the stock price.

 

[boonedocks]

Self-Driving is pretty much at this point up to your elected officials. FSD is not turned on because it's technically not legal. So call them and tell them to pass legislation to move progress forward.

In terms of EAP, I'm hoping to see something of a big update in the next month or so. I'm guessing 9.0 is around the corner.

Georgia officially OKs self-driving cars on public roads

Done!!! Now when do I get FSD enabled.

 

[SlicedBr3ad]

Just curious how long you've been around here?

There are tons of things Tesla/Elon has never delivered.

Still waiting for the SDK from 2013.
Still waiting for the new browser from 2014. Elon mentioned Chrome years ago. Where is it? They updated the kernel, but none of the promised UI updates came along with it.
Still waiting for mobile device mirroring from 2015.
Still waiting for UI overhaul from 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016 (or at least fixing ANY of the bugs that have latest this long). Every UI update has been a downgrade and introduced new bugs. But they do have time for "More Cowbell" and "Rainbow Road".
Still waiting on about 100 bugs to be fixed in the Media Player that used to work pretty well but now falls way behind media software written 15 years ago. My Rio Riot from 2002 does a better job.

As well as all the EAP and FSD promises made when AP2 was released. I think Elon promised AP1 parity by early 2017, and we're still waiting for that. It took them that long just go get automatic high-beams working in AP2. AP2 still doesn't have rain sensing wipers. And FSD is nowhere in sight (even disregarding the regulatory hurdles, I'm talking just the software).

So please don't claim that Tesla always delivers, even "late". Those things (delivered or not) really have no effect on the stock price.

it really does feel like you can't find forest through the trees. i agree with you above items haven't been delivered but it really is nitpicking rather than tesla not delivering (i.e. eap is a flop because it only drives up to 90 miles, tesla infotainment is a flop because we were promised a browser which was not delivered, and because we can't mirror smartphone screen). is it upsetting they didn't deliver items you mentioned? yes. would I rather they stop working on improving EAP and work on those items? my opinion, no.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Tesla will make succeed as I believe their processes are better than the ones used where I am.

My opinion is based on articles about EM work etiquette and principles

Woah, hold on there, partner. Those are two very different things. If you've been following Tesla software development like we have for years, their processes are abysmal.

There's a constant focus to develop new and innovate technology (which is a good thing), but more often than not, it's at the expense of ignoring bugs and problems that have existed for years.

There seems to be no real management of the different software teams other than what Elon wants done RIGHT NOW. Like digging tunnels because he doesn't like being stuck in traffic.

And the focus at Tesla now is all on AP2/EAP/FSD, and everything else falls by the wayside. That is NOT good software house management processes.

When we do get non-AP2 updates, it's fairly useless things like displaying the max rated charging rate at Superchargers -- but NOT the actual charging rate available. Or any per stall charging data we know they have, but don't build an interface for, which would make their owners on road trips very happy to have. The stall utilization data they do provide (which is just occupancy, not charging rates) is inaccurate and slow to update in real time... which frankly, isn't that hard to do. Just imagine pulling up to a SC location and the screen pops up "For optimal charging, please use stall 2B". They could do that TODAY. But don't.

And there is a large and growing list of really small, but highly annoying bugs they could probably knock out in a week, which would make current owners ecstatic.. but that's clearly not the priority. That speaks volumes to Elon's "work etiquette and principles."

Finally, to get a real solid insight into EM and his "work etiquette and principles", you should read the EM biography by Ashley Vance. Goes into a lot more detail and understanding of him than "articles" that typically glorify him in 500 words or less.

 

[HankLloydRight]

it really does feel like you can't find forest through the trees.

What's the forrest then? AP2? Tesla hasn't delivered on that yet, as promised in 2016.

You said "the key word is delivered."

What am I missing here?