Causalien
Prime 8 ball Oracle
Within the next 3 months. I am planning my asia trip right now. Fly out next week, but China is not the first country I will visit.
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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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Within the next 3 months. I am planning my asia trip right now. Fly out next week, but China is not the first country I will visit.
I have a question about buying some Tesla leaps (Jan. of 15). I am quite deep in Tesla as a long but wish to take advantage of this dip and buy some leaps (which I have never done before). I see options prices as of Sunday that are: (I understand they'll change with the market by tomorrow)
Strike Price: $215.00, Ask $52.00
Strike Price: $220.00, Ask $49.70
etc.
If I add the strike price to the asking price, I see that the $215 strike price is a better deal if TSLA is worth at least $267.00 when I execute (I would break even at that point). At the higher strike price, I risk slightly less, but the value of the stock needs to be a few dollars more for me to break even. For me, the $215 strike price seems to make more sense because I'm willing to risk losing a bit more in order to have a better chance of getting into the money. Do I have a reasonable understanding of things as I explain things?
Now, looking at the leaps another way, I see that Jan of 2016 calls are only about $15 more expensive than Jan of 2015 calls. I suppose an investor has more leverage if buying the Jan of 2015 calls because you can buy more for the same money, but the Jan of 2016 look like a more sure bet, with an entire year to rise an extra $15. I'm thinking that buying some Jan of 2016 calls might be a good way to get my feet wet in options.
Your advice to an options newbie would be much appreciated. My exposure to options will be rather small compared to my existing exposure as a TSLA stockholder at present.
thx
Strike Price: $215.00, Ask $52.00
Strike Price: $220.00, Ask $49.70
etc.
If I add the strike price to the asking price, I see that the $215 strike price is a better deal if TSLA is worth at least $267.00 when I execute (I would break even at that point). At the higher strike price, I risk slightly less, but the value of the stock needs to be a few dollars more for me to break even. For me, the $215 strike price seems to make more sense because I'm willing to risk losing a bit more in order to have a better chance of getting into the money. Do I have a reasonable understanding of things as I explain things?
Now, looking at the leaps another way, I see that Jan of 2016 calls are only about $15 more expensive than Jan of 2015 calls. I suppose an investor has more leverage if buying the Jan of 2015 calls because you can buy more for the same money, but the Jan of 2016 look like a more sure bet, with an entire year to rise an extra $15. I'm thinking that buying some Jan of 2016 calls might be a good way to get my feet wet in options.
Your advice to an options newbie would be much appreciated. My exposure to options will be rather small compared to my existing exposure as a TSLA stockholder at present.
thx
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your understanding looks reasonably good Papafox and currently with moderate IV and smaller J16 premium (relative to more than double time), I would opt for J16s currently. Also, note the odd strikes ($215 vs $220 for example) often have larger spreads due to lower volumes. I normally stick with the higher volume strikes, but not a huge consideration for longer holds. Also, consider using a higher strike with more contracts- the return will be higher assuming continued growth in the underlying.
So today did not unfold as I expected. I thought that unless Putin was threatening invasion the markets would take Obama's sanctions in stride. They seemingly didn't.
I thought that in the absence of negative macroeconomic news, TSLA would be up on the Baird upgrade.
I thought JASO would rightly be up around 13-14 on a stellar earnings report.
I certainly did not think the company that makes these things would be up 23%. KNDI ? Really, market? Welcome to the EV of the future -- the dream car of 1972! :scared:
I thought that in the absence of negative macroeconomic news, TSLA would be up on the Baird upgrade.
I thought JASO would rightly be up around 13-14 on a stellar earnings report.
I certainly did not think the company that makes these things would be up 23%. KNDI ? Really, market? Welcome to the EV of the future -- the dream car of 1972! :scared:
Actually I'm pretty happy about KNDI's price action.
Alternative Energy Investor Discussions (formerly SCTY thread) - Page 295
Firmware 6.0 when? Elon mentioned it during Europe trip late Jan, then in Feb 9 he tweeted about software update coming soon. It's been more than a month now.. Should be coming soon.. maybe waiting for NTHSA clearance, which probably is delayed due to troubling GM recall?
Twitter / elonmusk: Tesla V6 software upload coming ...
When do you guys think we hear about Gigafactory update? They've raised the 2B capital, what's next?
Also, when do you guys think we hear about the whitepaper blog that will debunk graphite BS, and debunk the myth about BEV dirty?
Twitter / elonmusk: Tesla V6 software upload coming ...
When do you guys think we hear about Gigafactory update? They've raised the 2B capital, what's next?
Also, when do you guys think we hear about the whitepaper blog that will debunk graphite BS, and debunk the myth about BEV dirty?
RAM_Eh
Member
Last year was May 8. They'll likely announce the exact date a couple weeks prior.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
TSLA seems very news-driven, so absent some unforeseen major event, I don't expect major price moves.
NHTSA clearance, Gigafactory details, and Model X will drive the stock higher.
I also think there will be Giga-shock value driving up share price if China sales go crazy.
NHTSA clearance, Gigafactory details, and Model X will drive the stock higher.
I also think there will be Giga-shock value driving up share price if China sales go crazy.
chickensevil
Active Member
Indeed, this stock moves based on news alone, it seems... No news/bad news/delayed news drops the price, and pretty much everything else makes it go up. Which is why I think the factory news didn't really hit as positive to the price as most of us expected because it was basically no news/delayed news... As in we have to wait yet again for some unknown date to get anything more than we already knew.
i think the best thing is that their capital raise was not perceived as a negative on the company (except by a select few crazy shorts who think that rising production numbers somehow equates to lower demand... Not saying all shorts are crazy, just the ones touting that line).
Well I found out what happens when you snooze and let in-the-money options expire in an IRA account (not margin enabled) at Schwab. I had 10 weekly contracts, at a 230 strike price to try to catch a quick bounce off the 20day MA. Of course, I mistimed it and I needed 2 more days...
But, I snoozed through the expiration and they bought me $230,000 worth of TSLA for me on Monday. No, I didn't have that much cash on hand... So I had to sell shares to get back to positive cash, which means I am a free-rider selling non-settled shares, which means they slapped me with a 90 day settled cash trading restriction, but I also couldn't hold until it settled...
So the moral is, don't let calls expire.
But, I snoozed through the expiration and they bought me $230,000 worth of TSLA for me on Monday. No, I didn't have that much cash on hand... So I had to sell shares to get back to positive cash, which means I am a free-rider selling non-settled shares, which means they slapped me with a 90 day settled cash trading restriction, but I also couldn't hold until it settled...
So the moral is, don't let calls expire.
marvinat0rz
Member
Thanks for the report. Quite fascinating really, you'd think they did something smarter than that. But it's probably in the terms of service somewhere. Still, buying 230k on margin on your behalf seems a bit short-sighted. Hope it won't hit you too hard.
It's been a few years since the rules changed to automatically exercise ITM options. Since they were ITM, AustinEV should have been able to sell them before expiry. People used to get REALLY upset when their ITM options were allowed to expire because the broker couldn't answer the phone quickly enough. But I think the real moral of the story is that you simply shouldn't snooze around options. If you need a nap, take care of them first.
I wish they had done it as a "cashless exercise" where instead of buying the full amount, they just bought enough to cover my cash and held the rest to cash out at the market open on Monday. I know why the can't; if the stock went up or down Schwab would experience that delta.
I wish the stock had gone up 10% yesterday, so it becomes a funny story of how I backed into $xx thousands of dollars by messing up. As it stands, I just got 2 days of WAY more stock exposure than I expected, which is fine since it went up a bit. Sadly I am still down overall for the trade since I bought those options at a really terrible time last week, so my breakeven point was $243. It essentially still would be, if I could have kept the stock. Curiously I only sold enough to bring my cash balance to positive since I was on the phone with them, instead of bringing my share balance back to what it was before. So as it stands now, I have deployed the last of my cash in shares at a cost basis of 243... I used the awesome power of options to buy shares at higher than market I guess.
InTheShadows
Active Member
I accidentally bought 100 march otm contracts of tsl yesterday on my phone and realized my mistake when I got the email notification that they filled. I ment to buy jaso and forgot I was looking at the tsl option chain last and placed the order based on being two strikes otm. I sold them an hour after I bought them for a round trip loss of 50% including fees. I probably could have made out if I kept them until today but the decay is so bad that I figured it was best to just resell them right away. *smack head*
MartinAustin
Active Member
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