Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[ev-enthusiast]

After Norway, massive incentives for Electric Vehicles in the Netherlands: Rotterdam Introduces World’s Best EV Incentives
Opportunities can bring the price of a new Nissan LEAF down from €24,110 to just €7,450!

Examples from the referenced article:

	LEAF	e-NV200
List Price (excl. VAT)	€19,926	€20,490
Cost after incentives – ROTTERDAM	€7,450	€4,950
Savings	63%	76%
Cost after incentives – AMSTERDAM	€8,350	€5,650
Savings	58%	72%

 

[chickensevil]

is it just me, or does the e-NV200 look even MORE hideous than the LEAF does? I get that it is supposed to be a commercial vehicle... but, YUK!

 

[ckessel]

One of the few times I don't hold TSLA as I was hoping to get in after the next drop off an ATH. I suppose that's probably still out there somewhere.

Regardless, great to hear an update on the factory ramp up.

I wonder where Tesla is on a Gen 3 concept. The X was revealed something like 2.5 years before it'll start shipping (and the S even farther than that before shipping). If the Gen3 ships in late 2017, I wonder when concept pictures get released?

 

[chickensevil]

There was a "timeline" that was leaked/revealed/talked about somewhere that said they would start the clay models this year, do a bunch of prototyping next year (2015), alphas would come the following (2016) and then betas would be after that (late 2016/early 2017). I think* (please don't hold me to it) that was the general timeline to making a car from scratch...

Model S was first concepted in what? 2010? Released in 2012. The Model X was first concepted in 2012 and will release in 2015 (one year delayed on purpose). So it seems to me like if they are going for a 2017 release then we should see the car in 2015 for the concept.

- - - Updated - - -

Add to that the first Roadster reveal was in 2006 with the release in 2008... so that gives further weight to a 2 year from concept to release time for Tesla.

 

[eepic]

There was a "timeline" that was leaked/revealed/talked about somewhere that said they would start the clay models this year, do a bunch of prototyping next year (2015), alphas would come the following (2016) and then betas would be after that (late 2016/early 2017). I think* (please don't hold me to it) that was the general timeline to making a car from scratch...

Model S was first concepted in what? 2010? Released in 2012. The Model X was first concepted in 2012 and will release in 2015 (one year delayed on purpose). So it seems to me like if they are going for a 2017 release then we should see the car in 2015 for the concept.

- - - Updated - - -

Add to that the first Roadster reveal was in 2006 with the release in 2008... so that gives further weight to a 2 year from concept to release time for Tesla.

I believe it was Franz late last year or early this year who first "mentioned" that they wanted to debut the Model ≡ concept at Detroit 2015, which TM quickly retracted officially. My gut feel is they'll officially debut Model X at Detroit instead, and show off M≡ closer to end of 2015 after MX hype has died down.

 

[chickensevil]

I believe it was Franz late last year or early this year who first "mentioned" that they wanted to debut the Model ≡ concept at Detroit 2015, which TM quickly retracted officially. My gut feel is they'll officially debut Model X at Detroit instead, and show off M≡ closer to end of 2015 after MX hype has died down.

They wasted no time during the build up for the S in revealing the X. I don't think it would impact the X sales in the slightest and would HELP the hype since they would have a real concept that gets the claimed mileage at the size they mentioned and finally give people something real to latch on to. Keep in mind that the reveal event for the X happened in Feb 2012, 4 months before the first delivery of the S... and it had no tangible impact on the S sales. Everyone knows that the Model 3 is not coming for another 3 years at the soonest and any concept release now would just make Tesla stronger as a company. (Plus share value will go through the roof! )

- - - Updated - - -

I will say however that it would be VERY anti-Tesla like to reveal the Model 3 at detroit... They have always held a private event first...

- - - Updated - - -

PS Almost to 280$ we are now up 10$ for the day (3.73%)

 

[GasDoc]

Closed friday below 270.
Opened today at 275.50
Now over 282

Short squeeze???

 

[RABaby]

Wow guys! $281.60 and rising. Are you busy staring at your screens?!? Noone is posting! All shorts are as of this moment in the red!

Have you noticed that ever since SA was removed from Yahoo news, the shorts haven't had the readership that discouraged the less informed? TSLA has been climbing since that decision and the shorts have seemed to increase their posts (out of frustration) on SA but to no avail. It is pretty amusing to imagine how desperate they are becoming and wondering how it will play out.

 

[chickensevil]

Wow guys! $281.60 and rising. Are you busy staring at your screens?!? Noone is posting! All shorts are as of this moment in the red!

Sorry, I am totally getting no work done right now... thanks TSLA haha!

But yeah, I see it, I was busy posting in other places

This movement is shaping up to be just as good as a Morgan Stanley (AJ) upgrade. So now we have two AJs and a JA to keep tabs on

If anyone is a customer of Stifel Nicolaus I would love to know what else is talked about in their model to hit the pricings as they are. Because 400 at 12 months is a pretty heafty pricing to put out there for something coming in 2017... that means they are expecting much more than 400 by then right?

 

[Jack6591]

Walter Talks to the Shorts

Nuts! - YouTube

 

[eepic]

Sorry, I am totally getting no work done right now... thanks TSLA haha!

But yeah, I see it, I was busy posting in other places

This movement is shaping up to be just as good as a Morgan Stanley (AJ) upgrade. So now we have two AJs and a JA to keep tabs on

If anyone is a customer of Stifel Nicolaus I would love to know what else is talked about in their model to hit the pricings as they are. Because 400 at 12 months is a pretty heafty pricing to put out there for something coming in 2017... that means they are expecting much more than 400 by then right?

It seems a part of their "discussion with management" is the most recent earnings call, so information we've all acclimated to already. However, their report has some interesting incremental tidbits from their tour last month that align with the other recent analyst notes, here are a few:

- Our sense is TSLA remains in a test stagewith respect to in-house energy storage opportunities as well as the potential
partnership and/or supply of third parties. However, as we did have the
opportunity to view a marked off section of the factory that will eventually
house the production building blocks for TSLA's energy storage business,
perhaps this is not as far off as we are anticipating.

- A new stop on the tour relative to our 2013 visit, we had the opportunity tolook at battery cell modules (each with 450 cells) prior to their inclusion in the
16-module battery pack. Management noted the current Model S battery
pack is comprised of the "second generation" of battery cells, with expected
material improvement in cell chemistry every 2-4 years on average. Heat
cycling appears the most critical element to sustaining battery life, which
seems is key contributing differentiator between TSLA's battery systems
relative to competitors.

- We had the opportunity to tour TSLA's body assembly line (currently just
Model S), which is comprised of over 120 robots and generates a new
vehicle every five minutes (roughly 2 hours to go through line).

 

[chickensevil]

- We had the opportunity to tour TSLA's body assembly line (currently just
Model S), which is comprised of over 120 robots and generates a new
vehicle every five minutes (roughly 2 hours to go through line).

Soooo just a little quick math here, assuming they are only doing the max 48 hours (it's a law... don't look at me... of course they could be pulling over time or split into two shifts...) in a week per shift that is 2,880 minutes which would be 576 cars in that time period. Anyone know how many hours they are actually pulling at the factory? That would tell you the current run rate overall. But running 2 shifts would be more than the 1k target, which I am sure they are not at right now... even 10 hours at 5 minutes a piece would be 600. To pull off 800 they would need to be pulling ~67 hours a week at that run rate or ~13 hours a day (assuming 5 day work week)

 

[FredTMC]

Soooo just a little quick math here, assuming they are only doing the max 48 hours (it's a law... don't look at me... of course they could be pulling over time or split into two shifts...) in a week per shift that is 2,880 minutes which would be 576 cars in that time period. Anyone know how many hours they are actually pulling at the factory? That would tell you the current run rate overall. But running 2 shifts would be more than the 1k target, which I am sure they are not at right now... even 10 hours at 5 minutes a piece would be 600. To pull off 800 they would need to be pulling ~67 hours a week at that run rate or ~13 hours a day (assuming 5 day work week)

Tesla has been running two shifts for a long time. Also, keep in mind they could possibly run the "body assembly line" 24 hours a day since it's robotic and doesn't require a lot of people to support it on graveyard shift. Just a thought.

 

[chickensevil]

Tesla has been running two shifts for a long time. Also, keep in mind they could possibly run the "body assembly line" 24 hours a day since it's robotic and doesn't require a lot of people to support it on graveyard shift. Just a thought.

Oh, good call, I read that as the final assembly... wrong part of the plant

--------------

Actually, looking at how deeply it dropped in price it looks like that could have been triggered by some hefty sell orders that were set to go just before 285$... RSI dropped all the way down to 3 something at one point which took the stock from way overbought to way oversold... Very weird to watch...

 

[hockeythug]

Nice little comedy over on CNBC with the old guy complaining about range and not wanting to wait to charge on his drive from Boston to New York. Claimed he looked at buying one.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Closed friday below 270.
Opened today at 275.50
Now over 282

Short squeeze???

I don't believe so. Volume on previous squeezes were a lot higher

 

[SteveG3]

Some interesting details from the Stifel according to streetinsider.com digest of the report included below.

The most important IMO is confirmation of what was discussed on this thread some time ago: that Gigafactory and Model III is not priced in - Stifel says that their PT of $400 is just based on Model S/X execution (modest 11% net margin and combined volume of 111K cars in 2017). The second most important addresses crowd of parrots annoying everybody with their manufactured "competition is coming" shouting. Even though Stifel list some risks, they think that competition might catch up by the end of the decade at the earliest.

Firstly, thanks for posting all those comments from the new report.

As to GF and Model III not being priced into this $400 price target, I'd take that with a very large grain of salt. I think Albertine was not thinking it through when he made that comment. Here's why:

a $400 price target for late 2015 (presumably a 12 month target) implies he thinks the stock will be roughly $500 two years later in 2017 where he's forecasted eps of $8.28. That implies a pe of 60 (or 48 based on $400/share). So while his 2017 eps of $8.28 may be based on Model S/X, a pe of 60 only makes sense is if you expect tremendous future growth after 2017, and that is based on Gen 3 and the GF. (fwiw, I suspect he "sandbagged" his 111K Model S/X sales for 2017, but nonetheless even if 2017 eps are $12 or $15, as I see it, it takes a Gen 3 driven large pe to justify a $400 price target).

Not to get away from the main point... big target, plus directly taking on the nonsense of "the big boys are going to eat Tesla's lunch any moment," plus, wow re $280+

 

[InTheShadows]

Cheers!!! What a day.

 

[MikeC]

Congrats to all longs on another ATH. I'm just disappointed no one posted the picture of Elon with champagne. During times like these, I think it's important to remember those less fortunate than us - the shorts, the bears, and the FUDsters. TSLA's continued success must be tough on both their wallets and their egos. Instead of gloating, perhaps we can lend them a hand - for example, consider picking up 159 shares of AXPW for the amount that a single share of TSLA appreciated today.

 

[DaveT]

Cheers!!! What a day.

$284 closing. #holymoly