Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[green1]

I thought I got an amazing deal on stock at $238... it's not looking so great right now...

The past week or two has been pretty depressing, my overall portfolio has lost a lot of value (not just Tesla), and the Canadian dollar has also plummeted leaving my dream of buying a Model S with the investments looking further and further away...

Well, it won't last forever, I just hope I don't take too much of a beating along the way...

 

[InTheShadows]

I'm glad we retook 200. Let's hope that was the bottom. And hope for a fast recovery.

 

[FluxCap]

Oil is rocketing up on strong volume simultaneously. /CL and /QM are tickers for those of you with ThinkorSwim, or USO is an ETF for those of you without direct access to commodities prices.

 

[Gerasimental]

Oil is rocketing up on strong volume simultaneously. /CL and /QM are tickers for those of you with ThinkorSwim, or USO is an ETF for those of you without direct access to commodities prices.

This is the strongest indication yet that TSLA is quite closely linked to oil prices. Both slowly but continuously drifting down doesn't tell us much, but TSLA immediately following oil in a sharp upward turn is very suggestive. Look at the first peak USO reached, 11:02. Brief downturn, after the peak, and TSLA's rise also stopped momentarily. As soon as USO settles at a still-positive level, TSLA's rise continues. USO's next big rise and settle at a high level prompts TSLA's next big rise too. Huge cross-correlation.

To me this strongly backs up that we are at highly discounted prices and that it's a good time to buy. If the oil slump has contributed to the majority of the recent slide, it might have taken around 20% off the stock value, while the effect on TSLA's demand will be minimal. I highly doubt that average consumers' lifetime savings of having a Tesla falling from $8000 to $4000 will dent demand enough to justify a 20% drop in share price, even for Model 3. Then of course the lower oil cost also reduces the cost of manufacture and shipping, so some of the reduced demand will be made up for with higher margins.

 

[v12 to 12v]

I am (probably stupidly) still adding J17 LEAPS for every $10 drop. I realize I am catching the knife, but it WILL eventually go back up and I want to ride the whole wave down and up. I'll probably add some on the way up too...hopefully sooner rather than later.

At this point I am not doing options at all. I'm just buying. I'm having trouble with the options making sense to me right now with the way option interest looks.

 

[FluxCap]

My USO puts are a 4-bagger and climbing.

 

[mibaro2]

Barely hanging on to $200 now.

I can't see how TSLA will hit max pain of $232 in 3 days. Or has the max pain dropped that much since last Friday?

 

[Robert.Boston]

It's skiing season, and TSLA is clearly on a double-black-diamond hill.

 

[v12 to 12v]

Barely hanging on to $200 now.

I can't see how TSLA will hit max pain of $232 in 3 days. Or has the max pain dropped that much since last Friday?

Max Pain has dropped a great deal. Shorts are collecting on their bets and driving the number down. Calls are being added deeper ITM too.

 

[32no]

Max Pain has dropped a great deal. Shorts are collecting on their bets and driving the number down. Calls are being added deeper ITM too.

??? Max pain is at $230, not much of a drop. I think that most options players accepted losses at this point. Max pain for next week is $220. Anyway, I'm surprised how easily Tesla blew through the 200 day AND the $200 marks.

 

[maoing]

Basically this down slope had no resistance and no rebounce at all. I sense the MM is selling firmly. Frankly speaking, I'm nervous now and I'm afraid TSLA is going to have 50% correction towards $150 range. If we see a nice rebound in coming weeks, that might be a good chance to offload positions.

??? Max pain is at $230, not much of a drop. I think that most options players accepted losses at this point. Max pain for next week is $220. Anyway, I'm surprised how easily Tesla blew through the 200 day AND the $200 marks.

 

[aznt1217]

Basically this down slope had no resistance and no rebounce at all. I sense the MM is selling firmly. Frankly speaking, I'm nervous now and I'm afraid TSLA is going to have 50% correction towards $150 range. If we see a nice rebound in coming weeks, that might be a good chance to offload positions.

MM is selling firmly? Can you elaborate on that. I don't quite understand it. It's year end. Like I keep repeating big moves will not be made until Jan.

 

[maoing]

Without some big hands selling firmly, how come the stock price falling like a rock? It would be nice not to have big move towards year end, but it's falling almost everyday since Thanksgiving. I have BIG worry for those lofty $300+ PTs, once some "dummy" analysts figure out that those PTs are not reachable in 6-12 months, are they going to cut the PTs?

MM is selling firmly? Can you elaborate on that. I don't quite understand it. It's year end. Like I keep repeating big moves will not be made until Jan.

 

[v12 to 12v]

??? Max pain is at $230, not much of a drop. I think that most options players accepted losses at this point. Max pain for next week is $220. Anyway, I'm surprised how easily Tesla blew through the 200 day AND the $200 marks.

I'm showing Max Pain at 220 on my model for this week at this point.

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MM is selling firmly? Can you elaborate on that. I don't quite understand it. It's year end. Like I keep repeating big moves will not be made until Jan.

The MM just want to make money on the "action" and some will want to take out the most options when they can.

I agree about next year. Funds will want to show it in their portfolios for next year. No need to dress their windows with TSLA for the end of this quarter. They are probably waiting for the best price they can get in the new year.

Lots of newsy things going on in 2015 plus increased production capacity and good price targets will make those fund managers look smart next year.

- - - Updated - - -

Without some big hands selling firmly, how come the stock price falling like a rock? It would be nice not to have big move towards year end, but it's falling almost everyday since Thanksgiving. I have BIG worry for those lofty $300+ PTs, once some "dummy" analysts figure out that those PTs are not reachable in 6-12 months, are they going to cut the PTs?

Those price targets could be hit easily. Just look at the price from last December.

 

[FANGO]

I do not like this bloodbath and I am ready for it to stop.

Anyone making large moves today in either direction?

I'm finding that sleeping until the market closes reduces stress from seeing red numbers. I'm already all in so might as well not worry too much about it.

That said I might rebalance and do some share replacement soon, though I'm also thinking about tax consequences at the end of the year.

 

[aznt1217]

I'm finding that sleeping until the market closes reduces stress from seeing red numbers. I'm already all in so might as well not worry too much about it.

That said I might rebalance and do some share replacement soon, though I'm also thinking about tax consequences at the end of the year.

I share your sentiments. Almost to a T lol

 

[mpt]

Green Car Reports are considering the question that Republicans might/might not be behind sales bans - one for fun Are Republicans Really Behind Tesla Sales Bans? Data Offers Clues

 

[Johan]

Green Car Reports are considering the question that Republicans might/might not be behind sales bans - one for fun Are Republicans Really Behind Tesla Sales Bans? Data Offers Clues

Headline ends with "?" so the answer is "No".

 

[ev-enthusiast]

Does Elon Musk hint that he will attend next CES, January 6-9 2015?
Bored Elon Musk on Twitter:
At CES this January Pansonic showed a Model S at their booth because of their battery cooperation with Tesla:
CES 2014: Tesla Model S a proud showcase for Panasonic - TESLARATI.com

 

[mershaw2001]

I share your sentiments. Almost to a T lol

I have been just keeping my accounts closed for most of the day, except for the few times in the past 2 weeks I've opened and bought a call or two for jan 2016.