Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements

[Cameron]

My Novs (between 170-200) won't be worth enough to bother selling tomorrow, so I'm gonna hold them for a couple weeks for if we get another day or two like yesterday. Probly jump in on a few LEAPS tomorrow with this bargain price, maybe do a stock replacement or something.

Exactly, I don't see the point in selling your calls at the absolute lowest. Even if the chance of them regaining value is very low, it's still a possiblity.

What happened to Google, sank if AH, but was up the next day?
Any chance that happening with TSLA?

I'll admit probably not likely. I will say my though my opinion of Tesla has only gotten better. They continue to work hard at achieving what almost seems impossible, the product is still amazing, demand is still strong, and the long term still looks promising. Thats about all you could ask for from them. Maybe more people will realize this and still feel confident in buying now.

 

[CapitalistOppressor]

I'm looking at the liveblog and Elon apparently just said that he sees North American demand at 20K. I'm sure he said 40K before...

Also: 10K for Europe, not just for Germany as reported before.

Model S has never been projected to 40k in NA by anyone credible as far as I know. S platform on the other hand might get there (Model S + Model X). Elon was clearly talking about just the Model S when he mentioned 20k+.

 

[aznt1217]

Goodness gracious. It's a BEAT and they grow while generating cash. Smart money would realize this

 

[30seconds]

high demand, production constrained, high gross margins and superior product. I'll be looking at the LEAPS tomorrow.

 

[GenIIIBuyer]

As a consolation to longs licking their wounds. I posted the analysis below in q3 Results thread, but thought it may be useful here (and maybe I can get the spacing right this time):

I think the balance sheet pretty much confirms that 1000 cars were produced, but in-transit on their way to delivery in Europe at quarter end.


Inventory went from $254.89M at end of Q2 to $347.54Mat end of Q3. That is $93M inventory build quarter to quarter.


During Q2, which involved production ramp-up, Inventory only increased from $237.62M at Q1 end. Assuming Q3 non-finished goods inventory build rate of about $20M. That leaves $70M in finished inventory build for Q3. Which translates into slightly less than 1,000 cars. (Finished goods are kept on the balance sheet Inventory section at Cost of Goods Sold value)


Assuming Cost of Goods Sold of $75K per Model S.
70M/75K = 933 cars

 

[ckessel]

I may be about the only person that's lost money on TSLA over the last 5 months. Because I started converting TSLA shares to various TSLA option plays about a month ago, my portfolio is worth less than it was 5 months ago. And it's money that's pure gone. The options have, or will, evaporate with zero value whereas stock might eventually recover. It also means very little left to reinvest in a future set of options.

 

[mershaw2001]

I may be about the only person that's lost money on TSLA over the last 5 months. Because I started converting TSLA shares to various TSLA option plays about a month ago, my portfolio is worth less than it was 5 months ago. And it's money that's pure gone. The options have, or will, evaporate with zero value whereas stock might eventually recover. It also means very little left to reinvest in a future set of options.

You're acting like tomorrow is a foregone conclusion. Tesla has the ability to surprise us, so don't give up all hope yet, especially when there's nothing you can do overnight. Just hope that we see a rebound off of 158 hard and then upward movement.

 

[FluxCap]

I may be about the only person that's lost money on TSLA over the last 5 months. Because I started converting TSLA shares to various TSLA option plays about a month ago, my portfolio is worth less than it was 5 months ago. And it's money that's pure gone. The options have, or will, evaporate with zero value whereas stock might eventually recover.

You are most certainly not the only person to lose big in the short term. If the after-hours pricing holds (which it may or may not), I am significantly net negative on my personal TSLA options plays and am negative on some more recent "dip-buying" stock purchases. Lessons learned I suppose -- you can't win every day against a combination of stupidity and determined, vested, powerful enemies. I mean OPEC and the entire ICE auto industry isn't just going to roll over and die quietly, are they? Since they can't compete with a credible product, they will resort to other means. Shorting, propaganda, paid FUD, deliberate manipulation. All par for the course.

However, in the larger fund pool I help manage I bought thousands of TSLA common shares at $43.60, and that's obviously not a loss.

I'm leaving the stock right where it is. This is a $300-$500+ stock post GenIII. That's not in the immediate future, but it's not forever, either.

 

[bhuwan]

I may be about the only person that's lost money on TSLA over the last 5 months. Because I started converting TSLA shares to various TSLA option plays about a month ago, my portfolio is worth less than it was 5 months ago. And it's money that's pure gone. The options have, or will, evaporate with zero value whereas stock might eventually recover. It also means very little left to reinvest in a future set of options.

You are most certainly not the only person to lose big in the short term. If the after-hours pricing holds (which it may or may not), I am significantly net negative on my personal TSLA options plays and am negative on some more recent "dip-buying" stock purchases. .

^--- what he said ..

 

[ckessel]

You're acting like tomorrow is a foregone conclusion. Tesla has the ability to surprise us, so don't give up all hope yet, especially when there's nothing you can do overnight. Just hope that we see a rebound off of 158 hard and then upward movement.

My options are at strikes of 175 and 180, paid a premium of about $18 on each a few weeks ago. The stock would need to see a $25+ increase from the after-market low just to have salvage value. Those are the bulk of the last 5 months profit.

I knew Q3 might not get a great reaction, but at the time I bought the options they were ~$10 ITM. I figured even a lackluster Q3 would mean the stock ran flat and I'd lose ~50%. Ah well, nothing I can do, but man, it hurts to throw away the profits from one of the greatest stock runs in a long time.

Edit: Obviously lots of other people are taking a huge beating on TSLA options, I wasn't trying to claim the prize there . I was just thinking that overall with TSLA, not just options, I'm worse off than 5 months ago and I figured that was probably not something many other TSLA investors had, uh, "accomplished".

 

[sub]

I feel for you guys that were heavy in options. I was tempted but my gut told me Q3 wasn't going to be like the last 2. I still thought the report would be good enough and with the closing price today I thought 190 was in the cards, I was buying my Model S if it reached that but now it will have to wait. Sitting tight with just shares, I think this is a good time to buy but I'm out of cash. I think the ER was good, just as most here expected. I think tomorrow we shall see it hold flat or recover some.

 

[Gtoffo]

My options are at strikes of 175 and 180, paid a premium of about $18 on each a few weeks ago. The stock would need to see a $25+ increase from the after-market low just to have salvage value. Those are the bulk of the last 5 months profit.

I knew Q3 might not get a great reaction, but at the time I bought the options they were ~$10 ITM. I figured even a lackluster Q3 would mean the stock ran flat and I'd lose ~50%. Ah well, nothing I can do, but man, it hurts to throw away the profits from one of the greatest stock runs in a long time.

Edit: Obviously lots of other people are taking a huge beating on TSLA options, I wasn't trying to claim the prize there . I was just thinking that overall with TSLA, not just options, I'm worse off than 5 months ago and I figured that was probably not something many other TSLA investors had, uh, "accomplished".

I'm sorry ckessel....but investing such a big part of your portfolio in a very speculative and short term play was a BIG mistake. The 10$ in the money options definitely didn't offer you any kind of protection and actually just INCREASED your risk substantially. Consider yourself lucky that you lost profits and are not sitting on a huge loss right now. I don't want to sound condescending but it's easy when reading on those forums to get carried away by hearing of other people's fortunes, but one must ALWAYS remember to remain within the boundaries that their risk tolerance/skills dictate.

I'm also deeply in red if TSLA drops tomorrow (still significantly profitable overall).....but I've only allocated a small part of my portfolio to this play....and even then...I was somewhat hedged (only bull call spreads which will slightly dampen my losses). I won't consider them worthless until I see the market tank during regular hours tomorrow. AH has a huge echo chamber in which small fears can become amplified irrationally. The smart money might look at today's earnings and see the real story behind the (let's admit it) sub-par presentation.

 

[ckessel]

I'm sorry ckessel....but investing such a big part of your portfolio in a very speculative and short term play was a BIG mistake. The 10$ in the money options definitely didn't offer you any kind of protection and actually just INCREASED your risk substantially.

Can you elaborate on that? OTM's are considered riskier, from what I understand, and consequently have higher potential return. ITM is the opposite and you can buy incredibly deep ITM's for basically the equivalent cost of stock. I'm not sure how ITM INCREASES risk.

As for a BIG mistake, well, hindsight and all On the other hand, had Q3 been a blowout like Q2 or Q1, I'd be able to retire 5 years early. The flip side is my retirement plans are basically unchanged from 6 months ago. Seemed like a worth while risk.

Consider yourself lucky that you lost profits and are not sitting on a huge loss right now.

Well, that's not luck. That was by intention.

 

[Daniel Scherer]

I think what you saw in after hours was stock manipulation. Very few shares traded and it was driven down on purpose. This is not a reaction from the 3 quarter report just someone trying to create a panic sell first thing tomorrow when the market opens.

 

[MikeC]

I think what you saw in after hours was stock manipulation. Very few shares traded and it was driven down on purpose. This is not a reaction from the 3 quarter report just someone trying to create a panic sell first thing tomorrow when the market opens.

Very suspicious to me. I didn't see it drop a few dollars at a time, it was at $160 a minute or two after 4 Eastern time, before I could even see the report.

 

[sub]

4+ million shares AH's is considered small volume? I know this isn't a typical day, and I can't remember what the trading was AH last quarter, but it seems like there is 50-100k AH on a typical day? Computers got us today, grabbed that report within milliseconds and made their move. This may have caused a cascade of limit orders until the stock finally stabilized in the 150's.

 

[Clemsons2k]

4+ million shares AH's is considered small volume? I know this isn't a typical day, and I can't remember what the trading was AH last quarter, but it seems like there is 50-100k AH on a typical day? Computers got us today, grabbed that report within milliseconds and made their move. This may have caused a cascade of limit orders until the stock finally stabilized in the 150's.

I think this is the most rational reason for the drop. People seem to want to throw around the manipulation conspiracy theories quite a bit around here.

 

[Gtoffo]

Can you elaborate on that? OTM's are considered riskier, from what I understand, and consequently have higher potential return.

Consider 1 option 10$ ITM vs. 1 option ATM: while the chances of the ITM option expiring WORTHLESS are lower you will need to pay those 10 extra dollars as extra premium (on top of the time value) which will then be at risk of being lost! In the case of the ATM option you only risk losing the time value included in the premium.

ITM is the opposite and you can buy incredibly deep ITM's for basically the equivalent cost of stock. I'm not sure how ITM INCREASES risk.

this is true IF you buy INCREDIBLY deep ITM......10$ is definitely NOT deep ITM (buying TSLA options for 100$ might be considered deep ITM....). You will be risking more with no protection at all. But then again deep ITM options only give you a very slight leverage effect (meaning you need less capital than buying stocks directly) while coming with a bunch of other side effects which I will not elaborate here. So it's generally not a strategy I like.

As for a BIG mistake, well, hindsight and all On the other hand, had Q3 been a blowout like Q2 or Q1, I'd be able to retire 5 years early. The flip side is my retirement plans are basically unchanged from 6 months ago. Seemed like a worth while risk.


Well, that's not luck. That was by intention.

We (both you and I) took a gamble, and we (probably?) lost. That happens when one gambles.... I just hope next time we will both learn how to gamble better and, hopefully, win that one :wink:

 

[ckessel]

this is true IF you buy INCREDIBLY deep ITM......10$ is definitely NOT deep ITM (buying TSLA options for 100$ might be considered deep ITM....). You will be risking more with no protection at all.

And if a company goes bankrupt, stock is worthless.

I guess we'll fundamentally disagree. It's a steady ramp from way deep ITM to way deep OTM on risk. That's what underpins the pricing for the options. To suggest deep ITM is low risk, then high risk partially ITM, then lower risk again at ATM, then higher again as you go OTM...that's simply wrong.

 

[MikeC]

4+ million shares AH's is considered small volume? I know this isn't a typical day, and I can't remember what the trading was AH last quarter, but it seems like there is 50-100k AH on a typical day? Computers got us today, grabbed that report within milliseconds and made their move. This may have caused a cascade of limit orders until the stock finally stabilized in the 150's.

Do most people have stop loss orders during extended hours as well, though?