The more recent comments have a more pro-Musk slant; certainly pushing against the earlier anti-Musk comments.
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Social Chat - Short Term TSLA Movements
- Thread starter Jonathan Hewitt
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Well I was right this time but didn't buy any options. I probably would have had I not lost all my gambling money on GTAT. Not that I'm complaining. So the pop happened while I was getting a root canal. Best root. canal. ever.
Maybe you should go to the dentist more often
If you get root canals for the rest of the week we can be back at our ATHs 
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Good stuff today. Was able to exit some OTM Nov calls that I held over the ER at break even during the run this morning. Phew.
If we close above the 50-day SMA (just above $250) I think the rest of the week could get interesting.
As pointed out by several other wise posters here it seems the market is just about to start grasping the possibilities of stationary storage and the GF. Like I posted last week: the biggest news to me in the shareholder letter was that they expect the GF to output actual cells and packs in 2016. That could mean a whole lot for volumes in 2018-2019 and could mean the next 1-2 GFs might come a year sooner. Best way to protect your head start is to aggresively expand the distance between you and the competition. When others start thinking of building GFs Tesla will already have poured concrete for the next two...
If we close above the 50-day SMA (just above $250) I think the rest of the week could get interesting.
As pointed out by several other wise posters here it seems the market is just about to start grasping the possibilities of stationary storage and the GF. Like I posted last week: the biggest news to me in the shareholder letter was that they expect the GF to output actual cells and packs in 2016. That could mean a whole lot for volumes in 2018-2019 and could mean the next 1-2 GFs might come a year sooner. Best way to protect your head start is to aggresively expand the distance between you and the competition. When others start thinking of building GFs Tesla will already have poured concrete for the next two...
chickensevil
Active Member
My January and December calls are finally back in the green again... This has been a tough couple weeks for me. I really do regret playing the ER. But at least I learned something from this experience. But having a hard loss can be very demoralizing.
I am likely to just hold these positions through either close to expiration or when they go to 100% returns and then roll them forward. I like having something on the table for days like this and I still think we will get some good news out of Tesla before Feb. Outside of that I am still a believer in this being the third rise following a similar pattern from previous, and it will culminate to breaking new highs either because of the next ER or slightly before it. We shall see what becomes of this.
I am likely to just hold these positions through either close to expiration or when they go to 100% returns and then roll them forward. I like having something on the table for days like this and I still think we will get some good news out of Tesla before Feb. Outside of that I am still a believer in this being the third rise following a similar pattern from previous, and it will culminate to breaking new highs either because of the next ER or slightly before it. We shall see what becomes of this.
Sorry about your losses. Large losses can be shattering. I still carry capital losses from GFC time, but that comes handy now in this bull market, to offset my tax liabilities for gains. I am chipping away at those losses every year since then, but there is still plenty left. Pain is gone.
Regarding TSLA play strategies, it is becoming harder and harder to predict short term move, so I stick to long term. Core shares and leaps, no short term play. I sell covered calls occasionally and whenever I do that stock hits ATH.
InTheShadows
Active Member
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Global Financial Crisis (2007-2008)
With regards to short-term I really do believe we will se continued upwards pressure continue this week.
(...and here's the predictable end-of-day rally pushing the value of the NovWk2 $255 calls up >50% as compared to a few hours ago. Here's to hoping for a gap-up start of trading tomorrow.)
... And a nice close well above the 50 day MA!
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I was half lucky, as I was well diversified.
The bad luck half was quite useful as well, I learned valuable investment lessons, such as the importance of diversification (
), the extent of my inability to predict market moves mad, the difficulties of selling out when the avalanche starts scared, and how to cope with losing crying.
The bad luck half was quite useful as well, I learned valuable investment lessons, such as the importance of diversification (
mad, the difficulties of selling out when the avalanche starts scared, and how to cope with losing crying.
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InTheShadows
Active Member
I was only focused on real estate investing at that time so I know it as the mortgage melt down and real estate bubble.
I have an idea what happened during that time to AAPL investors thanks to ongba's compilation of the Apple finance board.
Memories of what happened to AAPL during the GFC and in the fall of 2012 still haunt me.
Chickenlittle
Banned
InTheShadows
Active Member
When I first started reading the doc I was just learning options. Now that I have been investing in options for over a year I now see how an event like that could easily be catastrophic. Unfortunately I did not have first hand experience so March and April this year were devastating to me. However now I hope I know a little better how to handle amazing months like February and the first part of March this year.
Plus having tens of thousands of dollars evaporate into nothing in options I now know that an extended down cycle can cause the option investor to be totally wiped out, or worse pile on loads of debt if they were using margin as well.
The power of leverage in options is amazing. The hard part for me is getting out soon enough. I tend to hold on too long hoping for the next multiple and end up loosing my gains.
Had I been content with a 50% or 1x gain I probably would have been better off because there would have been lots of options I sold for a profit and not sold either for break even or total loss.
I'm trying to teach myself to never be disappointed in any profits I take. As long as I'm always taking profits I can't go wrong.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
This is very reassuring. I think that there might be realization among the institutional holders that Q3 ER, while showed some hiccup in execution, at the same time enhanced the long term view of TM's trajectory. The most telling part, IMO, was a hint about early completion of the GF and potential of using the GF batteries to expand capacity for Model S and Model X. Taken together with Elon's reveal during the Q2 ER call that existing (pre-GF) supply of the batteries is enough for 150K, may be up to 200K cars/year this mean that TM is hinting on potentially exceeding these levels just with Model S and X as early as 2017.
http://files.shareholder.com/downlo...c3e-4216-9ce3-7fb4d7e0c00b/Q314 SHL Final.pdf
My wild guess, the news of building microsatellite network for cheap internet access is very good news piling on for EM, adding to positive sentiment on Tesla.
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