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SolarCity (SCTY)

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From discussion in another thread, filed under potential causes for concern......



It's one thing to say Warren Buffett bought NV Energy at the wrong time in 2013, Dominion is willing to do the very same thing today in Utah. Obviously consolidation while valuations are low is going to happen regardless of outlook, I just find this moderately insane.

The minute residential solar gets any foothold in these states companies like NV Energy and Questar become worthless, so what's the logic? Do they really think solar is some kind of fad that can be beaten back?

This sounds like the over valuation trap. Pretty much all utilities are over valued in the present situation. Management will try to preserve the illusion that their company is worth its valuation. One way to do that is to buy up weaker competitiors. This creates the illusions of dominance and growth. Shareholders are lead to believe that their dividends are secured on a stronger base of business. All this deflects from the fact that utilizes are stuck with a cost structure that requires rates higher than distributed solar. There can be no security in any business model that is so deeply undercut by competing technologies. I suspect that the smart utilities are the ones selling out to the likes of Dominion and NG Energy. They may look weak, but they will walk away with capital that can be reinvested in other areas. Just look a coal. The smart money divested a long time ago. Dumb money will stick around to hire the bankruptcy lawyers.
 
Tuck this Elon quote away for Jul/Aug. When Tesla announces powerwall v2, they'll likely announce some trial results. Could be an ah-ha moment for SCTY investors.

We've got the Tesla Powerwall and Powerpack, which we have a lot of trials underway right now around the world. We’ve seen very good results... We’ll be coming out with version two of the Powerwall probably around July, August this year, which will see further step change in capabilities.
 
De-Grandfathering was never going to fly and they knew it. You need to put something batshit crazy out there so you can "compromise" by paying consumers 2.6 cents for wholesale juice at the same time you pay yourself 10 cents.

Bernie and Hillary should be pivoting to Nevada soon, let's hope they make this a major issue.
 
http://www.streetinsider.com/dr/news.php?id=11270039

This is a surprising forecast. US solar up 67% in 2016 to 15 GW. 10 GW to utilities, but 5 GW distributed. If SolarCity takes 1/3 of distributed. That would be about 1.67 GW.

I do expect that SolarCity will do quite well in the commercial segment. Killing demand charges with Powerpacks and solar is a winning play for SolarCity. I think commercial can be the surprise segment fir solar as the gap between utility scale and commercial installation costs narrow.
 
IIRC the commercial portion of the bar chart was much fatter in the 3Q presentation than in quarters past. Certainly helping drive that $1.92 install cost and should only accelerate. Corporations are waking up to the savings faster than the huddled masses.

I'm not too bullish on 2016 considering most folks were likely ramping down to cut costs then you add in that the pressure is now off to complete projects before the ITC expires. I think both will have a decent muting effect on installs across the board. From there on out it's a rocket to the moon as soft costs trim to grid parity everywhere.

2017 $70's and $80's will still be in the money, but starting to think it's my 2018 $90's that will be the big home run. Hoping 2018's drop before Friday so I can load up again.
 
Silver Lining For Natural Gas As EIA Forecasts Price Hike | OilPrice.com

So this is interesting, the US EIA is starting to model forecast that in coming years natural gas and coal will decline in power generation due to advances of renewable energy. This is the sort of fossil offset that I've been talking about. The EIA seems to think that as gas is squeezed out of power generation, it will find higher prices in other markets. This strikes me as magical thinking. Apparently, they are not quite recognizing price competition in the power markets is what is driving down the price of gas. In any case the price may moderate, because currently levels may not be enough to sustain growth in production.
 
I have no clue what is happening lately. It seems to me we're just caught in the oil collapse undertow...which seems to me the glut will only get worse with renewables displacing fossil fuels.

I saw this interview which I think makes sense, but I don't know how this effects SCTY. Maybe a strangle?
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/02/02/gartman-pickens-is-wrong-on-oil-heres-why.html

Well the Dec 2016 oil future is trading at $40/b. So if you really believe Pickens prognostication of $52/b by year end, you ought to load up on these futures with 30% upside. Serious, Pickens is uttering nonsense. The world is adding oil storage capacity everywhere to buy up this glut. Over 3 billion barrels in inventory. By the end of the year, inventory could easily exceed 3.3 billion even if the market balances. That storage is ready to reverse flow at any price above the futures curve. Storage is currently putting a floor at about $30 and also implies as $40 cap over the next year or so. This is why Gartman can be pretty confident in a $27 to $47 trading range.

Remember storage is now the swing producer for oil.
 
I liked the detail that Russia simply can't stop pumping because their Siberian pipelines will freeze up the minute flow stops. There is simply no end in sight for this glut, talk about a global stimulus(for developed non-petro countries).

Back on topic.....no one wants to take a stab at how this quarterly call will be received? SCTY has to have learned their lesson from last quarter and is carefully crafting their language. They are in the enviable position of being able to give very aggressive(and realistic) guidance relative to the tone of last quarter's call. Will they pull the trigger or just keep it bland?

CA net metering is now locked in, ITC is now locked in, grandfathering is all but locked in. I think they go a bit past neutral to the aggressive side spouting positive guidance out toward 2017/18 and we see a nice jump. The idea that this company is fairly valued at $3B is asinine at this point. Give the investment world a glimpse of what 80% growth looks like in 2018.
 
Will SCTY recant it's pledge from last earnings call to be cash positive by the end of 2016? That plan was in response to the potential ITC expiration which is now generously extended. If they feel compelled to announce this return to more rapid(expensive) growth will it be taken as a negative on Tuesday's call?

Will the increased revenue projections that go along with that aggressive expansion lift sentiment more than potential continued high sales cost weighs it down?
 
Will SCTY recant it's pledge from last earnings call to be cash positive by the end of 2016? That plan was in response to the potential ITC expiration which is now generously extended. If they feel compelled to announce this return to more rapid(expensive) growth will it be taken as a negative on Tuesday's call?

Will the increased revenue projections that go along with that aggressive expansion lift sentiment more than potential continued high sales cost weighs it down?

All good questions. I hope they give some details on Silevo and where they are at. I feel like this gets way too little coverage from any analyst for something that will be so substantial to the company. Paying 250 million to get a state of the art 1 billion dollar factory is crazy and it got so little coverage. We are actually getting pretty close now to when Solar City starts installing the equipment to make the solar panels. I think Spring of this year is the timeframe with full production (10,000 panels a day) spring of 2017.

I am also very excited to hear more about the Powerwall v2. I hope Elon talks about it in the Tesla Earnings call and does not hold the details quiet until the product launch.
 
All good questions. I hope they give some details on Silevo and where they are at. I feel like this gets way too little coverage from any analyst for something that will be so substantial to the company. Paying 250 million to get a state of the art 1 billion dollar factory is crazy and it got so little coverage. We are actually getting pretty close now to when Solar City starts installing the equipment to make the solar panels. I think Spring of this year is the timeframe with full production (10,000 panels a day) spring of 2017.

I am also very excited to hear more about the Powerwall v2. I hope Elon talks about it in the Tesla Earnings call and does not hold the details quiet until the product launch.

Ralston Live | Vegas PBS Shows | Vegas PBS

man, Bryan Miller once again represents on this PBS interview show. Says we'll hear soon on lawsuit on gov Sandavol and gave warning of another lawsuit on the PUC if they don't toss out current rate decision after reconsideration next week.

Wow, There are so many other legal and legislative actions in motion now I can't see how nv energy and the Nevada PUC will survive if they go solarcity's way:

-- A state referendum on overturning the PUC recent net metering decision is gathering signatures and looking for a state wide vote in November 2016.
-- A Nevada constitutional amendment to open electricity market and dismantle monopoly structure just filed today.
-- A class action lawsuit(anti-trust)bait and switch on nv energy by two Nevadans now in motion.
-- Also, the current federal energy bill has a supported amendment to prohibit non grandfathering of net metering customers under agreement terms at time of signing up, and also to ensure commissions assess all benefits before changing retail net metering (senator reid&King).

This is a clear battle ground now. I feel nv energy not only burned solar industry but they have also messed with the casino/gaming industry. Change will happen and nv energy will not like it at all.

I feel there is such a large movement, such a momentum now that we ought to take this as a sign Solarcity and rooftop solar is going to have a winning result after all is said and done over this next year.

I read on more and more Solarcity employees social media that the new mantra is to grow "as fast" as they can. With that, I feel guidance is going to emphasized at the conference call. This guidance ought to give an indication of a longer term outlook, maybe a new look at 2018 goals again. Like the million customer goal affirmation as well as growth rate expectations (40% sustained or increases).

I hope we can start to get solar+storage projections. How many sales they are going to aim for for 2016. This will really be important for breaking through in stock price because we all know this is the "holy grail" for expanding the business into a post NEM centric compensation model, such as grid services. an update on their California aggregation could be helpful here as well.

The tesla powerwall 2.0 is interesting. I'm hopeful Lyndon could give more color by addressing solar+storage sales over the 2016 year. I feel he can be general enough not to look in specific number expectations, but can be explicit enough to assure ramping product offers in applicable markets. I really really think this would impact investors in a positive way to start including energy storage goals in guidance outlooks.
 
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If management gives out lofty storage guidance, without provide any detail on the expected ROIs and such, I will throw up on the keyboard.

Storage is cost.

If argument is that grid services will pay for (battery cost + transportation cost + installation costs + profits), that's a load of baloney. Why won't grid get it's own batteries from Musk or wherever else?

As a shareholder, you want storage to be postponed as far away as possible.

With full net-metering, you literally get infinite battery with zero losses (100% 'round trip efficiency' in battery language) for FREE.

Why would you want to ever add costs to the system, when you have this for free??

Jeez, you are the very same people fighting for net-metering, aren't you??

Any mention of storage (other than in the context of HI) in today's world will doom the stock. Expect another 20 to 30% slide on that. Because it means that management is not confident in continuing net metering (free battery).

PS: For clarity, every time a powerwall is sold, Tesla makes money. Guaranteed. Both revenues and profits. It's not some iffy proposition based on some esoteric money falling off sky.

PPS: Did I say this already? As a SC shareholder, you want storage to be postponed away to as far as possible.
 
If management gives out lofty storage guidance, without provide any detail on the expected ROIs and such, I will throw up on the keyboard.

Storage is cost.

If argument is that grid services will pay for (battery cost + transportation cost + installation costs + profits), that's a load of baloney. Why won't grid get it's own batteries from Musk or wherever else?

As a shareholder, you want storage to be postponed as far away as possible.

With full net-metering, you literally get infinite battery with zero losses (100% 'round trip efficiency' in battery language) for FREE.

Why would you want to ever add costs to the system, when you have this for free??

Jeez, you are the very same people fighting for net-metering, aren't you??

Any mention of storage (other than in the context of HI) in today's world will doom the stock. Expect another 20 to 30% slide on that. Because it means that management is not confident in continuing net metering (free battery).

PS: For clarity, every time a powerwall is sold, Tesla makes money. Guaranteed. Both revenues and profits. It's not some iffy proposition based on some esoteric money falling off sky.

PPS: Did I say this already? As a SC shareholder, you want storage to be postponed away to as far as possible.
I hear what you are saying Steve. It makes sense. I'd still buy one just because I need a new toy!
 
If management gives out lofty storage guidance, without provide any detail on the expected ROIs and such, I will throw up on the keyboard.

Storage is cost.

If argument is that grid services will pay for (battery cost + transportation cost + installation costs + profits), that's a load of baloney. Why won't grid get it's own batteries from Musk or wherever else?

As a shareholder, you want storage to be postponed as far away as possible.

With full net-metering, you literally get infinite battery with zero losses (100% 'round trip efficiency' in battery language) for FREE.

Why would you want to ever add costs to the system, when you have this for free??

Jeez, you are the very same people fighting for net-metering, aren't you??

Any mention of storage (other than in the context of HI) in today's world will doom the stock. Expect another 20 to 30% slide on that. Because it means that management is not confident in continuing net metering (free battery).

PS: For clarity, every time a powerwall is sold, Tesla makes money. Guaranteed. Both revenues and profits. It's not some iffy proposition based on some esoteric money falling off sky.

PPS: Did I say this already? As a SC shareholder, you want storage to be postponed away to as far as possible.


You are So wrong here! You seem to think that solarcity will install all of this storage for free to the consumer. I think there will make money on every storage system installed before the added on grid Services. So just so we're clear if you're a solarcity shareholder the sooner solar systems are installed with storage the better. Imo anyway.

In unrelated news one of the new public utility commisioners in Arizona will not be voting on any cases that involve solarcity because his son works for solarcity. I'm not sure if this is good or bad it sucks that the one person throw Solar is not going to be voting on anything that has to do with solarcity

Newly appointed Arizona utility regulator to recuse himself from SolarCity cases | Utility Dive
 
With full net-metering, you literally get infinite battery with zero losses (100% 'round trip efficiency' in battery language) for FREE.

Why would you want to ever add costs to the system, when you have this for free??

I'm sure jhm will provide a better analysis but in short, look at the rate plan that California adopted. Even residential solar installation with a battery now is able to arbitrage due to variable rates. It is better than net metering. Even without the battery but with intelligent use of resources one could lower the power bill even further. The trick is it's not that easy to implement and that's where SolarCity has a chance to shine. This is where one needs sophisticated software that predicts spot rates, knows how much sun there is on that day (including the weather forecast), and based on that decides when to charge, when to discharge, and when to run the freezer.
 
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