Who is Jim Heaney and why is he being paid to write BS about Solar City? He's either very stupid or a very weak troll. This article is 100% on target. http://seekingalpha.com/article/3975292-solarcity-pulling-fast-
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Chanos looks to short companies that seem to require additional capital to pay pre-existing 'outgoing payments'
be it SCTY, Shell, Pertrobas, Cheneire, coal stocks, (CNX). Its all the same to him.
He particularly looks for entities with a strong reputation or leadership aura. So again
SCTY, Shell, Cheneire, are all leaders in their fields.
He is also particularly sensitive to a Chinese slowdown, so oil prices, for longer.
Companies he avoids short display the following traits
Companies that attract Chanos like a moth to a flame
be it SCTY, Shell, Pertrobas, Cheneire, coal stocks, (CNX). Its all the same to him.
He particularly looks for entities with a strong reputation or leadership aura. So again
SCTY, Shell, Cheneire, are all leaders in their fields.
He is also particularly sensitive to a Chinese slowdown, so oil prices, for longer.
Companies he avoids short display the following traits
- Predictable, consistent cash flow
- Defensive and/or defensible business
- Not dependent on superior management
- Low/reasonable valuation
- Margin of safety using many metrics
- Reliable, transparent financial statements
Companies that attract Chanos like a moth to a flame
- Cyclical and/or overly dependent on one product
- Hindsight drives expectations
- Marquis management and/or famous investor(s)
- Appears cheap using management’s metric
- Accounting issues
How long have they been working on this facility now?
Why did they only announce these delays for 2017 by 2/2016?
SolarCity delaying Buffalo factory production - The Buffalo News
Why did they only announce these delays for 2017 by 2/2016?
SolarCity delaying Buffalo factory production - The Buffalo News
gigglehertz
Member
Where will they get the $5 billion??? [/sarcasm] Haha some things never change, huh? The delay receiving manufacturing equipment has been known for some time now. Just because somebody writes an article about it now doesn't mean you just broke some new news.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Yeah, this SunEdison bankruptcy looks like an opening for SolarCity, particularly C&I.
jhm
Well-Known Member
TFTF, nice use of big font. Use the crayon font next time for even more impact.
gigglehertz
Member
To be fair I think it's the same font size as the headline, so probably an artifact of cut and paste.
There is a separate article on Elektrek out now about charges of corruption surrounding choice of contractor at Riverbend, finger pointing towards the governor rather than Solarcity, but also talking about delaying the project. Seems like a concerted FUD effort to me. Interesting our old friend TFTF shows up at the same time.
There is a separate article on Elektrek out now about charges of corruption surrounding choice of contractor at Riverbend, finger pointing towards the governor rather than Solarcity, but also talking about delaying the project. Seems like a concerted FUD effort to me. Interesting our old friend TFTF shows up at the same time.
This new article indeed points to additional/new delays (in addition to the ones reported in February):
Is the SolarCity Gigafactory at risk? State funding on hold as lobbying connections investigated
doggusfluffy
Closed
jhm
Well-Known Member
UNSW solar team achieves huge leap in solar cell efficiency
This is pretty impressive, 34.5% cell efficiency for unfocused light, decades ahead of 24% efficiency.
Manufacturing efficiencies are needed to bring it to market, but if this works out, this is a big advance for rooftop solar especially.
This is pretty impressive, 34.5% cell efficiency for unfocused light, decades ahead of 24% efficiency.
Manufacturing efficiencies are needed to bring it to market, but if this works out, this is a big advance for rooftop solar especially.
http://www.azleg.gov/legtext/52leg/1r/bills/sb1465p.pdf
apologies for the capitalized below, its just a cut and past from the legislation.
....
2. BE IN AT LEAST TEN-POINT TYPE
....
'THE AGREEMENT MUST ALSO CONTAIN A FULL AND ACCURATE
ESTIMATE OF THE BUYER'S OR LESSEE'S ESTIMATED UTILITY CHARGES DURING THE SAME
PERIOD AS IMPACTED BY POTENTIAL UTILITY RATE CHANGES RANGING FROM A FIVE
PERCENT ANNUAL DECREASE TO A FIVE PERCENT ANNUAL INCREASE FROM CURRENT
UTILITY COSTS. THE COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES MUST BE CALCULATED BASED ON THE
SAME UTILITY RATES'
....
apologies for the capitalized below, its just a cut and past from the legislation.
....
2. BE IN AT LEAST TEN-POINT TYPE
....
'THE AGREEMENT MUST ALSO CONTAIN A FULL AND ACCURATE
ESTIMATE OF THE BUYER'S OR LESSEE'S ESTIMATED UTILITY CHARGES DURING THE SAME
PERIOD AS IMPACTED BY POTENTIAL UTILITY RATE CHANGES RANGING FROM A FIVE
PERCENT ANNUAL DECREASE TO A FIVE PERCENT ANNUAL INCREASE FROM CURRENT
UTILITY COSTS. THE COMPARATIVE ESTIMATES MUST BE CALCULATED BASED ON THE
SAME UTILITY RATES'
....
So electracity, what's your position on SCTY, are you long, short, out entirely. What are your thoughts on the near term prospects?
I sort of fell off this thread after the redesign, and I've only read the last 5 pages or so so far to catch back up. Looking for the cliff notes
I see Jhm still giving great and detailed info. I've been accumulating under 20 but I currently don't even have a plan as far as exit strategy and pricing is concerned. A bit irresponsible I will admit but I have good feelings about them being able to generate positive cash flow by selling these asset backed securities. What kind of positions are people running right now in SCTY? I'll go back and read the last 50 pages or so eventually, but, that takes time!
So electracity, what's your position on SCTY, are you long, short, out entirely. What are your thoughts on the near term prospects?
I sort of fell off this thread after the redesign, and I've only read the last 5 pages or so so far to catch back up. Looking for the cliff notes
I'm long with leaps and shares. I'm not exactly brilliant though, I rode it all the way down from 36. I've purchased a few more leaps recently.
jhm
Well-Known Member
I am holding a substantial position, though I do think that the stock is temporarily underpriced.
I am waiting to see SolarCity complete righting the ship. Here are my priorities for what I'd like to see:
I am waiting to see SolarCity complete righting the ship. Here are my priorities for what I'd like to see:
- Become cash positive. (FCF + ProjectFinancingCF)
- Reduce sales cost/Watt below $0.45/W, achieve total cost below $2.75/W.
- 900 MW installed in 2016.
jhm
Well-Known Member
jhm
Well-Known Member
FWIW, I recently bought 24 of the 265W panels, there are about 276 panels in a 20' container and 588 in a 40' container. http://seweb.azurewebsites.net/Files\Products\PANEL\DATESHEET\DATESHEET--TOPSOLA TSM60-156P.jpg If a small crew can do 2 sites per day, at about 20 panels per sites, then that 40 panels per day, so they can fully deplete a 20' container in 7 work days, or a 40' container in 15 work days.
So the hurdle to get bulk logistic scale (1 x 40' container regularly each month) is within reach of a family business. If the family business has a handful of subbies working for them, they can use a 1 x 40' container regularly each week. If the family business can also supply others, they can use a 1 x 40' container regularly each day.
All the ladies I spoke to at that electrician I recently used seem to have a Nonya accent, it felt all in the family, so to speak, easy to imagine them supplying other electricians also.
What this suggested to me is that small electricians can scale to basically the same cost basis as SCTY, but without the overhead burden of SCTY. Akin to Dell vs IBM in the 90's. I need to think more about this,
It also suggests that productivity of rooftop solar is woeful compared to utility guys who can get a small team to install a sea container of panels in the time it takes a rooftop installer to install a trailer load of panels.
I could go further, but this is starting to feel like initially a gold rush type business, but where long term, the profits trend to be similar to general local, domestic electrician levels.
So the hurdle to get bulk logistic scale (1 x 40' container regularly each month) is within reach of a family business. If the family business has a handful of subbies working for them, they can use a 1 x 40' container regularly each week. If the family business can also supply others, they can use a 1 x 40' container regularly each day.
All the ladies I spoke to at that electrician I recently used seem to have a Nonya accent, it felt all in the family, so to speak, easy to imagine them supplying other electricians also.
What this suggested to me is that small electricians can scale to basically the same cost basis as SCTY, but without the overhead burden of SCTY. Akin to Dell vs IBM in the 90's. I need to think more about this,
It also suggests that productivity of rooftop solar is woeful compared to utility guys who can get a small team to install a sea container of panels in the time it takes a rooftop installer to install a trailer load of panels.
I could go further, but this is starting to feel like initially a gold rush type business, but where long term, the profits trend to be similar to general local, domestic electrician levels.
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