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TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
I'm starting to agree this federal legislation may be the impetus for a short term squeeze to 60. IF it's applied in the ways described here it would be the last major hurdle to easy financing. Grandfathering certainty then investor clarity gives us our two tiered squeeze to 60ish then 100+ at some point in the next year or two.
Excited to research this pending legislation today.
Get to this first tier then execution, communication, sales cost chopping gets us to the next.
Excited to research this pending legislation today.
Get to this first tier then execution, communication, sales cost chopping gets us to the next.
Bipartisan Energy Bill Inches Towards Finish Line | The National Law Review
get ready soon, looks like the bill is going to be passed with the Reid-King amendment. Not a single senator has tried to pull it out as a condition for passage, so, at this point, it looks to be just a matter of when. When looks like next week.
again, this would stop state by state net metering changes to setting a national standard for making those net metering changes, including all solar users to be grandfathered as well. This is a big big boon for Solarcity for it reduces much of the arbitrary regulatory uncertainty state by state politics embodies. Now they all have to consider the benefits of net metering before they can make any changes, and this will be federal law.
get ready soon, looks like the bill is going to be passed with the Reid-King amendment. Not a single senator has tried to pull it out as a condition for passage, so, at this point, it looks to be just a matter of when. When looks like next week.
again, this would stop state by state net metering changes to setting a national standard for making those net metering changes, including all solar users to be grandfathered as well. This is a big big boon for Solarcity for it reduces much of the arbitrary regulatory uncertainty state by state politics embodies. Now they all have to consider the benefits of net metering before they can make any changes, and this will be federal law.
SCTY short interest is up to 27,443,163 shares (previously was 24,204,207). And Fidelity just raised the rate it pays shareholders loaning out SCTY to 28% (was 24.5% for about the last week).
I bet there's a good pressure cooker analogy in there somewhere...
I bet there's a good pressure cooker analogy in there somewhere...
There is a limit. I forget what it was but it was quite a bit higher than interactive brokers when my buddy who uses Fidelity checked
jhm
Well-Known Member
The shorts do not seem to be doing a good job at keeping a lid on prices. My impression is that there is now steady buying pressure. Momentum could turn against the shorts.
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Because everybody knows how profitable these companies are. What's that profit margin again?
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
This reminds me of the "argument" made by one Indiana senator during the hearings for the Tesla-killing bill: "your cars are already expensive, you can afford to work with an independent dealer to sell them", meaning "you can afford to give some of your margins to someone else as we mandate, in order to keep the gravy train going".
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
This is going to be good. The market is an amazing thing, just when I thought there was no chance of a TSLA-esque squeeze these fools jump on again. And after the ITC extension??? How are there not 1000 better things to short than the leader in solar installs? God bless the chart worshipers.
Just squeeze us up to 60 so we can start building toward 100 at the beginning of fall. Maybe Bernie will have a big day on March 15th(FL/IL/MO/NC/OH)? Good lord, what if he does and the bill passes on Wednesday?
doggusfluffy
Closed
It also makes you wonder why the utilities don't try to partner up with SolarCity to capture some of those sweet, sweet profits...rather than fight them. I'm not sure how to play this Senate bill and pressure cooker but I was thinking over whether it was already too late to pick up some calls. The oil glut hasn't truly been resolved of course...
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
I used to wonder that too, but Lyndon Rive actually explained it quite well (most recently on Ralston Live). Utilities have the wrong business model. They are incentivized to just build more infrastructure and live off the 10% of their investments that is their guaranteed profit. As a protected monopoly, they don't need to be concerned with efficiency, the environment, or customer satisfaction.
jhm
Well-Known Member
Yep, the flip side to this is that the utilities are getting a 10% profit margin, so surely they can afford to hold their rates down and not pass costs on to non-solar customers. Nobody is forcing them to make so much profit, right? So it is actually the utility that is cost cost shifting, not solar customers.
TheTalkingMule
Distributed Energy Enthusiast
There's no fuel for solar. It ruins the entire profit model for all the reasons above plus all the even more important intertwined businesses.
Warren Buffett owns NV Energy. Do you think it's in his interest to make his grid as cheap, efficient and sustainable as possible? He's got infinitely larger operations that rely on maintaining the status quo, that's the real impetus for purchasing a private energy company in Nevada. Yes he made $750M with NV Energy last year, but it's more about keeping his rail cars full of coal and his methane burning.
It's like gasoline. Why on Earth would you want to use gasoline engine in cars if they're inherently inferior? Because the focus is the supply not the demand. While making kerosene these guys are stuck with gasoline and need to be able to sell tons and tons of it. Have the car companies use gasoline. Boom, problem solved.
jhm
Well-Known Member
The oil market has been moving upto $38/b. It seems delusional. The the inventory build is still quite substantial. There is hope that OPEC or somebody might pull back production, but this strikes me as magical thinking. I think the reality is that the prospect of oil rising into the $40s just encourages marginal producers to stay in the game. As I've speculated before, this floor is just a function of storage. Prices are low enough for investors to store up oil for future generations. It's a floor, but it is no basis for "recovery."
At least, a little hope in the oil market spares the rest of the market barrels of misery. So SolarCity is free to rise, even though oil really has very little to do with the business.
Florida legislators put solar energy incentives on August primary ballot | Bradenton Herald
very interesting... Florida might open up to Solarcity next year? Another positive policy move today in Florida state legislature...
by the way, the energy bill is tied to the flint funds so even more momentum to get it done then ever before. This has political expediency written all over it. Next week(or sooner) is becoming a strong probability now...
Democrat places hold on Flint, energy bill package | TheHill
very interesting... Florida might open up to Solarcity next year? Another positive policy move today in Florida state legislature...
by the way, the energy bill is tied to the flint funds so even more momentum to get it done then ever before. This has political expediency written all over it. Next week(or sooner) is becoming a strong probability now...
Democrat places hold on Flint, energy bill package | TheHill
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jhm
Well-Known Member
US solar market to more than double in 2016 to reach 16GW : Renew Economy
2016 could be a huge year for solar in the US, about 16 GW. Most of this is utility solar already cued up to lock in the ITC before it was to expire. The extension did not undo these projects. One can see here just how sensitive the utility solar market is to ITC. Residential and commercial will continue to grow regular rates, showing almost no sensitivity to the ITC issue.
2016 could be a huge year for solar in the US, about 16 GW. Most of this is utility solar already cued up to lock in the ITC before it was to expire. The extension did not undo these projects. One can see here just how sensitive the utility solar market is to ITC. Residential and commercial will continue to grow regular rates, showing almost no sensitivity to the ITC issue.
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