SpaceX investor's thread

[Green46]

Sure. He's clearly a visionary and a genius with few (if any?) peers, past or present. Flip side, presenting an 'analysis' that's heavy on hopes and dreams and light on fact and reason in a thread about investment is a little bit underwhelming, especially when fact and reason pretty squarely caps much of the bullish case.

My 'analysis' definitely has no hopes and dreams. I cannot invest in Spacex so not hoping and dreaming of it (...well... hoping a little). But I certainly do think that just as important as hard facts are, its also important to zoom out and look at overall picture or summary to get a broader pov. or feel of a situation. This I believe is true in investing as much as in many other circumstances.

For example, I'd be happy to invest in boring co, eventhough I dont know exactly the hard facts of what projects they have in the pipeline, what ideas they have for future expansion, what breakthroughs they need to tackle, what talent they attract, what anything. I learned that a softer approach is important for me personally (not same for everybody of course). I invested in tesla only in 2017, which is 3 years after I became obsessed by it. My mistake was paralysis by analysis. So, yes, good to have hard facts and broader feel imo.

 

[mikevbf]

Okay now that I have had caffeine, I see the first major mistake in my post. Moderator please replace every reference to "spaceship" with "Starship" and then delete this post -- how embarrassing. Thank You

maybe I should not have been so embarrassed. it was just my prescience coming out:

Tesla adds 'spaceship' to future potential products to work on for its designers - Electrek

 

[Xepa777]

For reference, you can see all of SpaceX's upcoming flights here along with their payloads - Launch Schedule – Spaceflight Now pretty great aggregator

 

[kengchang]

It seems like the latest round has closed, was anyone contacted for investment?

 

[Cosmacelf]

It seems like the latest round has closed, was anyone contacted for investment?

Again, for direct investment into a $2B round, they would be looking for $10M+ minimum investment, and most of it, SpaceX would be looking for existing direct shareholders to participate. They have a hard limit to the number of direct shareholders they have.

 

[ZenMan]

I have been searching for a way to get into SpaceX. I may have found a way to get in, but I'd need more funds than I am able to put in. I have $1 million that I'd like to place into SpaceX. Looking for $9 million in additional accredited investors to get to $10 million that should give us decent terms.

Please PM me (Minimum investment $250,000) if you are interested and the $ you have to invest. Just gauging interest and potential dollars. Nothing is binding at this point.

 

[hershey101]

I have been searching for a way to get into SpaceX. I may have found a way to get in, but I'd need more funds than I am able to put in. I have $1 million that I'd like to place into SpaceX. Looking for $9 million in additional accredited investors to get to $10 million that should give us decent terms.

Please PM me (Minimum investment $250,000) if you are interested and the $ you have to invest. Just gauging interest and potential dollars. Nothing is binding at this point.

Did you already fill your investment?

 

[insaneoctane]

I'm still scratching my head on this one. Want to invest some in SpaceX, but nowhere near the $250K I've seen above.

 

[e-FTW]

JPMorgan creates new team to trade shares of pre-IPO giants including SpaceX, Robinhood and Airbnb

The investment bank is launching a new team to connect sellers and buyers in the burgeoning market for private company shares, according to Chris Berthe, JPMorgan’s global co-head of cash equities trading. He’s lured Andrew Tuthill, a senior VP from trading platform Forge Global, to head up the new team.

 

[jlbzz]

Have any analysts suggested future valuations for spacex?

 

[ecarfan]

Have any analysts suggested future valuations for spacex?

I can’t imagine how space-based enterprises can be accurately valued right now. It’s all speculation.

 

[Cosmacelf]

I can’t imagine how space-based enterprises can be accurately valued right now. It’s all speculation.

That's what most people were saying about Tesla the last eight years.

SpaceX has a bright future. They've just received their first contract to build military satellites. I wouldn't be surprised to see SpaceX doing a lot more than building satellites and providing lift going forward for the military. Presumably they will expand their satellite building service for commercial customers as well. They've already disrupted lift services and are on the cusp of doing another step change in price with Starship. Starlink will be a great business. SpaceX will likely win more and more NASA moon contracts. Finally, the big prize that no one except Elon truly believes in, Mars lift. That's like owning a monopoly on cross ocean shipping in the 1800s.

SpaceX is as much a growth company as Tesla is/was.

 

[ecarfan]

Finally, the big prize that no one except Elon truly believes in, Mars lift. That's like owning a monopoly on cross ocean shipping in the 1800s.

Nobody wants to see Elon succeed in creating a self-sustaining human colony on Mars more than I do. But I’m not convinced it’s a revenue-generating opportunity during this century. Maybe the next one.

Nor am I convinced that a colony on the Moon or asteroid mining if going to turn a profit.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Nobody wants to see Elon succeed in creating a self-sustaining human colony on Mars more than I do. But I’m not convinced it’s a revenue-generating opportunity during this century. Maybe the next one.

Nor am I convinced that a colony on the Moon or asteroid mining if going to turn a profit.

The colony won’t, but transport to/from it will.

 

[ecarfan]

The colony won’t, but transport to/from it will.

Well I certainly hope that is the case, but I don’t expect to be around to see that come to pass!

 

[Cosmacelf]

I wonder if people have really thought through what is means to be a lunar or Martian colonist. It means raising kids there. And those kids probably wouldn’t develop the bone structure to exist on Earth. It’s a one way ticket for future generations.

 

[EVCollies]

I wonder if people have really thought through what is means to be a lunar or Martian colonist. It means raising kids there. And those kids probably wouldn’t develop the bone structure to exist on Earth. It’s a one way ticket for future generations.

Could be the first Darwinian moment in a long time.

 

[ecarfan]

I wonder if people have really thought through what is means to be a lunar or Martian colonist. It means raising kids there. And those kids probably wouldn’t develop the bone structure to exist on Earth. It’s a one way ticket for future generations.

I agree. Anyone born on Mars would not be able to function in Earth gravity. A powered exoskeleton suit would not be sufficient because the Martian’s circulatory system would not be capable of compensating for the higher gravitational forces.

 

[Mo City]

That's what most people were saying about Tesla the last eight years.

SpaceX has a bright future. They've just received their first contract to build military satellites. I wouldn't be surprised to see SpaceX doing a lot more than building satellites and providing lift going forward for the military. Presumably they will expand their satellite building service for commercial customers as well. They've already disrupted lift services and are on the cusp of doing another step change in price with Starship. Starlink will be a great business. SpaceX will likely win more and more NASA moon contracts. Finally, the big prize that no one except Elon truly believes in, Mars lift. That's like owning a monopoly on cross ocean shipping in the 1800s.

SpaceX is as much a growth company as Tesla is/was.

The question some of us here have to decide is which is a better investment for the short/mid term, Tesla or SpaceX. I'm torn right now but leaning Tesla. This has decreased my urgency about SpaceX.

On the other hand, if Tesla were to roughly double from where it is now over the next 12 months, I would plunge in and commit a major chunk to SpaceX in a heartbeat.

I'm hoping for a "quantum leap" in the next 6 months. That should do the trick.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The question some of us here have to decide is which is a better investment for the short/mid term, Tesla or SpaceX. I'm torn right now but leaning Tesla. This has decreased my urgency about SpaceX.

On the other hand, if Tesla were to roughly double from where it is now over the next 12 months, I would plunge in and commit a major chunk to SpaceX in a heartbeat.

I'm hoping for a "quantum leap" in the next 6 months. That should do the trick.

It really isn’t easy or cheap to invest in SpaceX since it is a private company with an already decent market cap. If you do manage to snag SpaceX shares, you’ll probably be paying a carry. And they won’t be liquid. It has Elon going for it, and that is pretty unique. But given the private company negatives, I’d invest in Tesla. Investing in both Tesla and SpaceX is a risk concentration as well.

Find a list of other growth stocks that you like, monitor them, and when they dip, buy. There is a high likelihood of a big dip coming due to the election results or non results, so it would make sense to wait and see how that plays out.

To give you an example, one company I bought had a big dip to 150 a month ago due to competition worries. It had a great quarter and now, within a month, it is at 250. QDEL.

While everyone here like Tesla, and for good reason, there are other stocks that have outperformed it over various timescales, and have a good chance at outperforming it again in the next couple of years. My point being that Tesla is not the only great stock to own.