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SpaceX investor's thread

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From Ars' latest Rocket Report:

Bank doubles its valuation of SpaceX. In a new report released this week, the investment bank Morgan Stanley says it is raising its "base case enterprise value" of SpaceX from $52 billion to $101 billion. "The pieces are coming together for SpaceX to create an economic and technological flywheel," the report states, citing Starship, Starlink, and reuse. (The report is not online as far as we can tell).

Winner take most? ... In part, the report stated, "It is clear to investors and industry observers that SpaceX's launch cost advantages are being used to accelerate deployment of its LEO broadband network. As the company achieves pole position in LEO, which many believe is a winner take most (if not winner take all) arena."

From: Rocket Report: Bank doubles value of SpaceX, Russia won’t talk Amur anymore
 
the guy recently tweeted
https://twitter.com/bradsferguson/status/1315667876871843841?s=21

regarding doing it directly with spacex and not a share plan provider

however, it would appear to me the same thing applies that cosmacelf stated prior


i was debating jumping in on a recent round (friend of a friend, more a favor to my friend for letting me in bc my investment amount wasn’t large)
my friend entry into valuation around 38bb

the one i was looking at was ~43bb a month later

done through a custodian (share plan provider) comprised of probably spacex employee and existing investors (like forge global or sharespost)
a) as those holders trim positions that frees up new entries
b) newly issued shares for new round

but i didn’t get in anyway

assuming some here were in in the teens and 20s bb valuations a few years back. that’s nice!

Is this investment option still alive? I haven't received any email since the last survey he setup.
 
Yes. I asked him just after you posted and he said his "lawyer is helping me get set up with the LLC & SPV." I don't know why he isn't keeping potential investors proactively informed.

Thanks.

I have seen some people on posts and videos saying that they were able to invest on SpaceX using their Roth IRA; is it possible to invest in SpaceX using a traditional IRA?
 
Thanks.

I have seen some people on posts and videos saying that they were able to invest on SpaceX using their Roth IRA; is it possible to invest in SpaceX using a traditional IRA?
I can't see any responsible IRA administrator of any sort allowing this kind of investment. It's basically illiquid and a "You may very well lose it all." kind of thing.
 
This guy invested into SpaceX through his IRA at the 59:20 mark

Correction: this guy says he invested through his IRA. He first said he pulled money out of his IRA. In any case, I imagine you can find a self-directed IRA with no responsible administrator. Go for it. But unless you are starting with at least half a million $, I doubt anybody will talk to you. Best of luck!
 
I can't see any responsible IRA administrator of any sort allowing this kind of investment. It's basically illiquid and a "You may very well lose it all." kind of thing.
Check out Alto IRA. They are an IRA custodian that allows alternative investments, including private equity, real estate, and cryptocurrencies, and their fees are reasonable. SharesPost and Forge investors have invested IRA (Roth or traditional) funds using Alto IRA.
 
Check out Alto IRA. They are an IRA custodian that allows alternative investments, including private equity, real estate, and cryptocurrencies, and their fees are reasonable. SharesPost and Forge investors have invested IRA (Roth or traditional) funds using Alto IRA.
Good for them. I didn't say there weren't any irresponsible IRA custodians. Sounds like you've found one. Perhaps it would be more accurate to say "un"responsible or laissez-faire, meaning they take no fiduciary responsibility.

Personally, I think that's a bad idea for retirement funds. Although I say that as somebody who has run several Roth IRAs to $0 by gambling with them, on the theory that I had my retirement covered elsewhere and was just having fun. Can't say anybody tried to stop me.
 
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Personally, I think that's a bad idea for retirement funds. Although I say that as somebody who has run several Roth IRAs to $0 by gambling with them, on the theory that I had my retirement covered elsewhere and was just having fun. Can't say anybody tried to stop me.
I'm sorry to learn of your losses. We've also made costly investment mistakes and it's never a good feeling.

Typically, company 401(k) retirement plans have limited choices and they tend to make it impossible to run your balance down to zero. On the other hand, you're also not so likely to see truly market-beating returns, and in most cases, you're essentially forced to invest in companies that you don't like or care to support. One thing I most appreciated about leaving each of my past employers was the opportunity to roll 401(k) investments into self-directed IRAs, both Roth and traditional. Choosing one's own IRA investments, of course, is both a great freedom and a serious responsibility.

If you can accept that self-directed IRAs are a mostly a good thing, given the freedom to buy any stock and to trade options, then in principle, it's really not such a large leap to carefully invest a portion of those funds in private equities. Going that direction, you're going to lose liquidity and transparency, but you may be able to make some very high quality investments, such as SpaceX in my opinion. For some people, the limited liquidity may actually be a blessing, as they won't be as tempted to trade excessively or get involved in risky option trades.

The bottom line is that self-directed IRA owners need to carefully choose their investments, and I'd rather have as many choices as possible. The whole "fiduciary responsibility" thing is sort of bogus here; no one is going to stop you from making terrible investment decisions unless they take away most of your freedom! I'd say it's better to put a big chunk of IRA money into a SpaceX fund (or some other Musk-led company like Boring or Neuralink) than into some random, horrible little company that just happens to trade on the NASDAQ.
 
Yes. I asked him just after you posted and he said his "lawyer is helping me get set up with the LLC & SPV." I don't know why he isn't keeping potential investors proactively informed.
And now it's no. Brad just sent out the following:
SpaceX Investment Update

I am not happy to be writing this e-mail. I need to step aside from organizing the SpaceX investment group. I was hoping that I could participate in an investment alongside the group and “file away” that investment.

But I would have responsibilities to do regular, quarterly communications to investors for 10 to 20 years. I can’t do it. Also, while I wouldn’t be doing the bookkeeping or the banking, or audit or tax work… I would have to make sure those are running smoothly and ultimately I would be responsible if something went wrong.

There is way more to running/organizing a SPV for private equity investment than I imagined. I now have a newfound respect for the people who are doing it for others even if they are charging for having the responsibility.

I have a family and a business to run and I don’t want to have a hobby where I can legally be on the line if I want to take a backseat, etc. Sorry that I took a while to get back to you all—I was dealing with lawyers to see what it would take. It sucks to let 160 people down, and for that I am sorry.

Believe in the future, cherish the now,

Bradford Ferguson, CFA

So, any new leads on how to invest in SpaceX without giving a significant percentage to barnacles?
 
There is way more to running/organizing a SPV for private equity investment than I imagined. I now have a newfound respect for the people who are doing it for others even if they are charging for having the responsibility.

Oh boy. I hope this person and others have learned a meta lesson here. Plumbers and electricians see this all the time. People with a little bit of knowledge wonder why the trades can be paid $100/hr for something so easy. Turns out that tradecraft to ensure that pipes don't leak or wiring won't catch fire isn't easy nor quick to learn. Not to mention all the other costs of a business like sales, marketing, equipment, etc.

The fact that there are many SPVs that allow you to invest in private companies, yet they all charge significant fees (carries, transaction costs, etc.) should have been a clue that it wouldn't be easy nor cheap to do. If it were easy or cheap, standard price competition would have reduced these SPV fees by now.

I too wanted to invest in SpaceX, and even wired money to a real SPV, which then returned it since they couldn't get the deal closed. I have since come to my senses. Yes, we all think SpaceX is awesome and will do well. But then you have the downsides. Zero liquidity, high transaction costs, must keep money locked up for many years, concentration of risk (if Elon gets hit by a truck, both stock prices take a hit), and even counter party risk (these SPVs aren't exactly built on strong foundations). So instead of chasing what seems like easy money, I decided to work a bit harder and find five other public company growth stocks to invest in. In the end I'll probably be ahead financially, while taking less risk and my money will be liquid.
 
Once again considering jumping into SpaceX. What sort of investment timeline are you guys planning on? I assume that if Starlink is spun off in say 3 years, that will mean SpaceX shareholders receive Starlink shares which can then be easily sold at IPO right? My timeline is pretty flexible. I have enough funds right now to technically retire, just not as much as I want. Worst case I could leave the SpaceX component sitting there for 10 years.

I'm not really concerned about risk because the funds for this would come out of my TSLA holdings which means my diversification will increase.
 
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