Read the following article a couple of days ago. As the saying goes, money isn't everything. Even holding a buyout offer of 3 times the appraised home value. Would be somewhat callous to not have some sympathy for the plight of some of the residents. Ray and Maria Pointer probably aren't leaving Boca Chica anytime soon.
SpaceX is trying to buy out a village in Texas to make way for its experimental Mars rockets
Thanks for posting that. To be clear, I have a tremendous amount of sympathy for any person being displaced from their home, particularly by forces with far deeper resources.
That said - these are, by their own admission, retired folks on a fixed income.
Furthermore, from that article:
Sam Clauson: You know, are we going to be safe here? Are we going to lose our land? You know, most of us came down here are here because we're retired and wanted a nice quiet place to live.
Unfortunately I don't think they will be safe there. They live in a hurricane-prone wetland that is in a 100-year flood plane (Zone AE according to the FEMA map). As can be seen by the history of catastrophic flooding throughout the state of Texas in the past 10 years, flood plane designations are no longer accurate representations of how frequently a geographic area will flood... due to the affects of climate change. So much so that the state itself is updating their flood maps based on new data:
https://www.statesman.com/news/20180928/more-extreme-rain-in-austin-could-change-flood-maps
In Austin, the new data show that 100-year rainfall amounts for 24 hours increased as much as 3 inches, up to 13 inches, in parts of the city.
This means that larger storms are occurring more often, and it takes more rain to make it a “rare” event, researchers said.
In Houston, the changes in precipitation frequency were even more significant. The 100-year estimates increased in parts of the city from 13 inches to 18 inches. Values that were previously classified as 100-year events are now much more frequent 25-year events, meaning they have a 4 percent chance of occurring in a given year instead of a 1 percent chance, researchers said.
...
Shunk said changes in the flood maps based on the new data also would affect people’s flood insurance. When the city completes its new flood plain study, it will give that information to FEMA for its maps, which are used to determine flood insurance requirements.
“That may be two or three years away,” he said. “We recommend that people call their insurer now to talk about how that may change.”
“It’s important for people to understand their flood risk so they can make decisions about flood insurance and flood risk and what to do to keep them and their family safe,” he said.
So, in 2-3 years, what happens when the Pointer's FEMA flood insurance is too expensive to keep due to their fixed income? What will they do when a storm hits? IMO, buyouts of flood-prone areas are absolutely better for fixed income folks living in those areas rather than rebuilding. Just look at Indonesia - they are moving their capital to an entirely different island and building it from scratch instead of trying to fix Jakarta. What chance do the Pointers have to sustain if a catastrophic hurricane hits?
Not to mention the long and arduous process of going through the traditional buyout route, making the (presumably) easy SpaceX transaction that much more attractive:
In Houston, a Rash of Storms Tests the Limits of Coping With Climate Change
Officials have sought to buy the homes of some people flooded after Harvey, with the intention of tearing those homes down so they can’t flood again. But the average buyout funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency nationwide takes more than five years, according to data compiled by the Natural Resources Defense Council.
In the meantime, many homeowners give up and instead repair or rebuild in place — setting themselves up for future pain when the next storm strikes.
In this case, SpaceX must have the funds to offer them a lot more than a 3x valuation, which is probably still a nominal amount to them (max $225k per person). As a compromise SpaceX could(/should?) go above and beyond by assisting the residents in finding and purchasing comparable new homes that fulfill their stated needs ("safe" and "a nice quiet place to live") that aren't in a flood-prone area
