Speculating on Roll Out and Delivery Assuming 2023 Release

[ndstreet]

Just trying to do some math and figure out what the time frame would be for a delivery of a Cybertruck if a deposit was placed today assuming an early 23 rollout and production a little better than the Model Y.

Based on the Model Y release, they rolled out about 10K in the last quarter of launch in 2020 before ramping up to approximately 40k per quarter in 2021 and topping that in 2022. So assuming they can actually launch in Q1 2023 with at least a few cars, and hit similar (although realistically I'd hope they got a little better at production by then) production of 40-50k per quarter in 2023, we could potentially see 150-200K cars by end 2023.

I believe I've read there are nearly 1.2m deposits placed already.

Any guesses assuming these numbers are correct based on Model Y or other facts on when a deposit placed today could get delivered? I think its realistic to expect 50+% of deposits to get canceled given time, life and most relevant a price jump of maybe 25% from initial estimates.

My Model Y lease comes up in Jan 24. Assuming my numbers above are realistic, and if Tesla can hit an early 23 release and gear up production consistent with the Y, doesn't look like I can make it it time. Thoughts?

 

[uscbucsfan]

We know that the highest level will be available first, so 4 motor with whatever top line package is offered. I think the absolute best case scenario is for the initial testers/influencers to get a shipment late summer delivery, but it's more likely a Q4 2023/Q1 2024...unless of course there's another delay, which is entirely possible with 4680 production/yields, supply chain, etc.

I wouldn't count on it, but wait until mid next year to worry.

 

[Ogre]

Right now Giga Berlin is producing between 1000 and 2000 cars a week. It passed 1000 a few weeks ago and is accellerating. That means for most of the first 6 months of production, they were producing less than 1000 cars a week.

So 1000 * 26 weeks = 26,000 in the first 6 months of production. But much of the first 6 months was much lower than that.

I could see Cybertruck doubling that if things go perfect. That suggests production during the first 6 months would be between 15k (pessimistic) and 55k (optimistic). Most likely it’ll be closer to 15k though. Maybe in early to mid 2024 we’ll see production up to 40k/ quarter and we’ll be at the full 60k/ quarter (roughly 250k/ year) at mid 2024 and slowly accellerate from there.

Sucks balls.

(Also, as @uscbucsfan suggests above, wait and see when actual start of production is maybe we’ll get lucky)

 

[electrifyme]

I'm not optimistic about mid 2023.. dunno why but going by Elon time and other issues that come up along the way. Thinking end of 2023 or beginning of 2024 we will some a couple. Ramp to thousands will be mid 2024.. in my garage... end of 2024 or beginning of 2025.

 

[Ogre]

I'm not optimistic about mid 2023.. dunno why but going by Elon time and other issues that come up along the way. Thinking end of 2023 or beginning of 2024 we will some a couple. Ramp to thousands will be mid 2024.. in my garage... end of 2024 or beginning of 2025.

Really kind of silly random speculation one way or the other at this point.

Once 4680 production is online and the Gigapress is in place, start of production is 4-9 months out from that. Early in the year Tesla seemed to suggest Austin 4680 ramp would be well under way at this point, but we're still using cells from Kato. So that production start date is still just speculation on Musk's part.

 

[jdbc]

if we believe that Google spreadsheet with order numbers etc, that is updated with estimated delivery windows etc... mine says July 2023. I'm in the first 1970 trucks ordered... again, *if* we believe that spreadsheet has any merit. Preordered a tri within minutes (give or take? lol) of order banks opening on presentation day.

 

[Ogre]

if we believe that Google spreadsheet with order numbers etc, that is updated with estimated delivery windows etc... mine says July 2023. I'm in the first 1970 trucks ordered... again, *if* we believe that spreadsheet has any merit. Preordered a tri within minutes (give or take? lol) of order banks opening on presentation day.

People who make the spreadsheet have no more information than us.

If you are under 2000 you should be a month or less after production start. Whenever that is.

 

[strider]

Really kind of silly random speculation one way or the other at this point.

But what else are we going to do?

Based on my 12 years as a Tesla customer, I expect them to ship a handful of trucks at the very end of 2023. This way they can tell Wall Street that "production began in 2023". They will then go through "production hell" in 2024 and slowly ramp. I do not think the MY ramp is germane. MY was just another iteration of S, X, and 3. CT uses all new production materials and methods.

It will take Tesla a good long while to get everything dialed in and production ramped.

 

[uscbucsfan]

But what else are we going to do?

Based on my 12 years as a Tesla customer, I expect them to ship a handful of trucks at the very end of 2023. This way they can tell Wall Street that "production began in 2023". They will then go through "production hell" in 2024 and slowly ramp. I do not think the MY ramp is germane. MY was just another iteration of S, X, and 3. CT uses all new production materials and methods.

It will take Tesla a good long while to get everything dialed in and production ramped.

Agreed.

The first couple and then the deliveries after that will be the 4 wheel Plaid variant, if they keep the Plaid version that Elon has talked about....whatever is the most expensive model will ship first.

That's why the spreadsheet is BS, it doesn't factor that in. Also, we've always seen Tesla deliver geographically after the initial select influencers receive theirs.

 

[bill-dub-ya]

I'm thinking that the first deliveries will go to employees, so they can more easily monitor for early problems.

 

[strider]

Agreed.

The first couple and then the deliveries after that will be the 4 wheel Plaid variant, if they keep the Plaid version that Elon has talked about....whatever is the most expensive model will ship first.

That's why the spreadsheet is BS, it doesn't factor that in. Also, we've always seen Tesla deliver geographically after the initial select influencers receive theirs.

I agree that Tesla prefers to make higher margin cars first. The only wrinkle is that they have never done a 4-motor vehicle. If there are any hiccups with that, they may do the tri-motor first since they have proved that out in the S/X Plaids. All depends on when everything comes together.

Regardless, there will be endless electrons spilled arguing about it between now and then

 

[uscbucsfan]

I agree that Tesla prefers to make higher margin cars first. The only wrinkle is that they have never done a 4-motor vehicle. If there are any hiccups with that, they may do the tri-motor first since they have proved that out in the S/X Plaids. All depends on when everything comes together.

Regardless, there will be endless electrons spilled arguing about it between now and then

Not that we can take what he says worth a *sugar*, but Elon said the 4 motor will be the first production model. Also, there were some reports that the 1 and 3 motor weren't happening in the near future.

 

[Ogre]

Not that we can take what he says worth a *sugar*, but Elon said the 4 motor will be the first production model. Also, there were some reports that the 1 and 3 motor weren't happening in the near future.

There were also more recent “Reports” that dual motor would be produced first due to a shortage of the carbon wound motors. Those reports are really just rumors.

 

[uscbucsfan]

There were also more recent “Reports” that dual motor would be produced first due to a shortage of the carbon wound motors. Those reports are really just rumors.

The last I can find is that Elon stated on Jan 8 and December 6th of last year that the quad motor would be delivered first. It also follows Tesla normal rollout. I haven't seen anything about the dual motor being first, but I don't doubt there's other rumors.

Would be interesting if the CT did get 4 carbon wrapped motors.

 

[uscbucsfan]

Also, if the dual motor actually had decent range, I wouldn't care. I have my S that goes fast enough.

I'd be curious to see how the configuration portion goes. That will be a crazy day when people can begin to configure their vehicles...only to wait a year.

 

[scrapps]

if we believe that Google spreadsheet with order numbers etc, that is updated with estimated delivery windows etc... mine says July 2023. I'm in the first 1970 trucks ordered... again, *if* we believe that spreadsheet has any merit. Preordered a tri within minutes (give or take? lol) of order banks opening on presentation day.

I'm also July 2023 according to that sheet But I learnt from my Model 3 reservation, that being near the start of the queue doesn't mean sugar if they prioritize west coast over east coast :/

 

[DanDi58]

Hmmm, where is the CT order spreadsheet?

 

[Ogre]

Hmmm, where is the CT order spreadsheet?

I wouldn’t worry about it overmuch. It’s accuracy was questionable to begin with and only gets worse as the numbers get higher.

If you ordered in the first 2 hours, you have a decent chance of getting your truck in the first 6 months after launch.

If you ordered in the first 24 hours, you might see your truck in the first 12 months after launch.

If you ordered in the first 2 weeks, likely get your truck in the first 18 months after launch.

If you didn’t order in the first month you aren’t likely to see your truck for 2 years after launch.

 

[Alexjrs]

I ordered a Tri motor 2 days after they launch on Nov 21 2019 Not sure how much the reservation date effects anything. I live in houston close to the giga Texas factory hoping that helps me get mines sooner I’m willing to upgrade to what ever configuration there putting out first

 

[NewbyMaybe]

Crash safety tests done yet? Assuming a factory product is required, not a prototype, what's the timeframe for that?