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Discussion in 'Model 3: Ordering, Production, Delivery' started by creekcrosser, Jul 12, 2018.
Only looking to add enhanced autopilot , when the time comes.
I'm sure they will eventually offer the car without the premium interior or long range battery. I expect they'll offer it with only one of those first, though - more profit margin, less manufacturing complexity.
My guess is they'll do SR Premium first, but they might do LR nonPremium instead. They might offer the cars without both as soon as they start offering the other version, or there might be a period where they are offering LR nonPremium and SR Premium, but not SR nonPremium.
I doubt it
I also expect SR Premium first. Doing that only requires the Gigfactory to produce the new batteries, and does not require changing the car line to also do non-PUP. They also can still go AWD SR too, just by having the battery change, so IMO, non-PUP will be last.
But won’t that hurt Tesla to an extent ? It further holds back their presence in the market they are seeking to corner. Holding back the most affordable model seems it would also dampen the importance of the vehicle in the media the longer they hold out.
Which would hurt more? Going out of business because you introduce disruptive changes to your manufacturing line before you have the volume to sustain it, for a lower-margin car, or losing some potential customers because it takes longer than they expected for you to get out the exact car they want?
If they can go out of business for once again modifying the line, then they would be in trouble and the public would be aware of that already.
They can only build so many in a week.
As long as they have enough buyers for 100% of production on a higher priced model it doesn't "hurt" them to not make the lower priced one- they're still selling every car they make as fast as they can make it- and thus putting as many teslas on the road as they possibly can each week.
Exactly. And this is why they opened the configurator to everyone now - they'll be able to draw in as many customers for the higher priced configurations as they can, and they'll know when they need to start offering the lower models based on demand for the higher ones well in advance.
Elon already said that if they built the $35k car first, they would have gone out of business. It has less profit margins. Right now, it's all about keeping their margins up as high as they can. The battery change for SR would only require the Gigafactory to take on the new load, and wouldn't need to change the assembly lines for the car, because there would only be RWD, AWD, and P. Assuming P would also have an SR battery, then you would have 6 configurations to build. (I assume the tires are not really big deals in the assembly line - seems like those should be easy enough to keep a bunch on hand for whatever you're trying to build.)
Now if you also add in non-PUP, you double again, going to 12 configurations. And those would all be lower profit margins. So to make those viable, you have to make sure you can produce a lot.
If they're barely at 5k/week, and you try to add in lower margins, you start sapping your cash. Elon is trying to get Q3 and Q4 to profitability. Until it can be sustained, you're not going to see low margin cars. At all.
Think it this way, in the beginning of 2016 Tesla said that there battery price on pack level was less then $190/kWh, lets say it’s $150/kWh now. If the short range Model 3 have a battery with 25 kWh less capacity it means that it cost about $3750 less to built but Tesla will get $9000 less. If the profit margin right know is less then $5250 on a long a range Model 3 it would mean that Tesla will sell a short range at a loss.
Perhaps they's bundle SR, EAP and Premium. To make sure both EAP and Premium are bought. Normally $5K+$5K? $7-8K might get lots of takers. Who'd normally only get EAP, or Pr because they want their car quickly.
They sure will bundle as the mention of the 35,000 $ car was completely deleted from Tesla‘s webpage.
On the other hand they know they cannot ask for too much money. Today you can order a model 3 with RWD and the webpage says: "delivered in 1-3 months." Without reservation !
So they cannot aggravate potential customers with too much bundling.
I think retooling for a non-premium version is more complicated than for SR/AWD/Performance versions. Different roof, seats, headliner, speakers etc. And they get less money for that version. So... that will be the very last version they build. If ever. I would not be surprised if in 6 months time we'll get a 40k version and then over a couple of years time, with batteries getting cheaper and production most cost effective, Tesla might simply drop the price of SR+Premium to 35k to meet their promise and never produce non-premium interior.
And also I'm pretty sure most people would actually go with premium interior even for SR.
I'm guessing that the plan/goal today is to give U.S. day one reservation holders the option of buying a SR model 3 while the half tax credit is still available.
But they are certainly constantly reevaluating production plans. They didn't know the behavior of M3 reservation holders until they allow configuration. I think its pretty clear that most people with a reservation have not configured as of today.
With these levels of scaling, I agree just keeping Premium and foregoing the theoretically cheaper interior option might be best. Nice way to give customers the idea of extra value for money.
I don’t think there’s any chance they force EAP or bundle PUP and EAP for less than $10k.
I just want to be able to buy an SR + PUP + EAP. Let me give you $46,000!!!!!
No chance Tesla will force bundle EAP/FSD. PUP maybe
The answer would be that if they can afford to sell it, they'll sell it, but prioritizing optioned ones.
It’s all about margin. All. Disruptive change is an Elon Musk red herring to divert attention away from margins. Interiors, wheels, software, etc. are all sub assemblies. There’s nothing disruptive, as they are kitted and carted to the line from another area or kitted by a JIT external vendor. Paint color? Sure, when your paint line is inefficient and changeovers are time consuming/difficult.
I said it a year ago, and I’ll double down. A $35,000 Model 3 will never be delivered to anyone, anywhere, ever. $41,000, probably. I don’t think $35,000 will yield even a single digit margin. It may not break even with the cluster that is their manufacturing platform.
The anti-selling has begun. Mention of a $35,000 Model is being / has been scrubbed from the website.
It’s foolish to wait based solely on something Musk said. He’s like the date that may or may not show up.....