Sunday, Sunday, Sunday!

[dhanson865]

Did the first 30 customers configure their car though?

If you have 400,000 reservations you could make any configuration you want and still find 30 that match what you built.

Just open configuration to employees only since that is who gets the first few thousand and give them a few days to decide, shouldn't be hard to get a few hundred to pull the trigger and pick 30 to be the first to receive.

 

[Mo City]

20K/month by December is what made staying up tonight worth it!

 

[hockeythug]

Well, time for @Troy to update the estimator with this data... I think this ramp is a bit slower than he predicted?

I'm not familiar with Troy's estimates but geniuses like Adam Jonas claimed they would do 2k this year.

Tesla’s stock (TSLA) falls on downgrade from Morgan Stanley, sees almost no Model 3 delivery in 2017

 

[tpatana]

20k by dec!

I have chance getting my M3 this year!

 

[NannerAirCraft]

That's what I thought, until I read this...

"Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec"

Isn't that like 4x their original projection for end of 2017? HOLY MOLY.

No the projection was 5000 cars per week by the end of 2017 so this is right in line with their projections.

 

[zenmaster]

That's what I thought, until I read this...

"Looks like we can reach 20,000 Model 3 cars per month in Dec"

Isn't that like 4x their original projection for end of 2017? HOLY MOLY.

No. Target was 5000/wk by end of 2017.

 

[jsrawa]

Agreed, that's right along track with their previous projection. Basically they are on track.

 

[Bokonon]

No the projection was 5000 cars per week by the end of 2017 so this is right in line with their projections.

You are correct, sir.

 

[Bokonon]

No. Target was 5000/wk by end of 2017.

Yup, my bad. Fixed my post.

 

[NannerAirCraft]

Is he saying they'll reach a rate of 20,000 cars per month sometime in December or produce a total of 20,000 cars in December? Or am I paying too much attention to his grammar.

 

[powertoold]

Is he saying they'll reach a rate of 20,000 cars per month sometime in December or produce a total of 20,000 cars in December? Or am I paying too much attention to his grammar.

He's just talking about a rate, not 20,000 in december, but at some point in dec, at the rate of 5000 / wk.

 

[McFlurri]

so.. only 100 cars will be built in August, and 1500 cars in September... seems... like less than most were predicting no?

 

[powertoold]

so.. only 100 cars will be built in August, and 1500 cars in September... seems... like less than most were predicting no?

So far, we only have 3 data points, which are in line with previous predictions from Elon.
Aug 100
Sept 1500
Oct 6000?
Nov 14000?
Dec 20000

 

[Trips]

Is he saying they'll reach a rate of 20,000 cars per month sometime in December or produce a total of 20,000 cars in December? Or am I paying too much attention to his grammar.

Produce 20k cars in December. That does not mean they will deliver that many. He said they will try and maximize the number of tax credit's so they could have ever one of those in transit for January delivery.

 

[BluestarE3]

Oh all ye of little faith! Elon came through with time to spare.

 

[dobbersp]

First non-Tesla employee probably shipping in November.
About 10k (of the ~40k employees of spacex and Tesla) reportedly reserved one.

 

[insaneoctane]

Just took a peak at Troy's data. He is currently predicting :
July = 76 (vs Elon 30)
August = 378 (vs Elon 100)
September = 2,502 (vs Elon >1500)
October = 9,038
November = 16,400
December = 29,068 (vs Elon 20,000)

This tells me that if you used Troy's estimator tool that it gave you a date earlier than what Elon tweeted tonight. By the way, I think Troy did a great job estimating this and will quickly be able to adjust to the new data, so nothing negative to him at all! I just wanted to share how Elon's tweet relates to the tool...

 

[smak]

California line waiters almost guaranteed by December, even possibly mid November.

 

[Jason S]

Just took a peak at Troy's data. He is currently predicting :
July = 76 (vs Elon 30)
August = 378 (vs Elon 100)
September = 2,502 (vs Elon >1500)
October = 9,038
November = 16,400
December = 29,068 (vs Elon 20,000)

This tells me that if you used Troy's estimator tool that it gave you a date earlier than what Elon tweeted tonight. By the way, I think Troy did a great job estimating this and will quickly be able to adjust to the new data, so nothing negative to him at all! I just wanted to share how Elon's tweet relates to the tool...

I'd thought those were cumulative vs Elon talking about per month rate. So I think the December about for 30k cumulative might be a bit low, but the ramp between September to December is quite steep in Elon's rates.

 

[Jason S]

California line waiters almost guaranteed by December, even possibly mid November.

I think many more reserved in California. if 30k by end of year, you might get all of the line waiters that already had Model S...