Sunday, Sunday, Sunday!

[insaneoctane]

I'd thought those were cumulative vs Elon talking about per month rate. So I think the December about for 30k cumulative might be a bit low, but the ramp between September to December is quite steep in Elon's rates.

I decomposed Troy's cumulative data into monthly to make apples to apples

 

[smak]

I think many more reserved in California. if 30k by end of year, you might get all of the line waiters that already had Model S...

When you subtract people that wait because they want AWD and performance?

That's a number we don't know. But it has to be a significant amount.

 

[diamond.g]

Just took a peak at Troy's data. He is currently predicting :
July = 76 (vs Elon 30)
August = 378 (vs Elon 100)
September = 2,502 (vs Elon >1500)
October = 9,038
November = 16,400
December = 29,068 (vs Elon 20,000)

This tells me that if you used Troy's estimator tool that it gave you a date earlier than what Elon tweeted tonight. By the way, I think Troy did a great job estimating this and will quickly be able to adjust to the new data, so nothing negative to him at all! I just wanted to share how Elon's tweet relates to the tool...

I wonder if the other numbers are per week rates. Or is that too fast in the beginning?

 

[timk225]

So that was the "big news"?

I hope they open the online configurator soon, so I can study the available options and tell them what they are doing wrong and what needs changed. I'm good at that.

 

[JonG]

So that was the "big news"?

I hope they open the online configurator soon, so I can study the available options and tell them what they are doing wrong and what needs changed. I'm good at that.

What was the big news?! Tesla hitting a date, that's what!!

Of course they haven't yet. It's not Friday, and I don't recall actually seeing a picture of the finished interior. And they've gone one step further than Henry Ford, not only can it be any colour so long as it's black, it can be any spec so long as it's the one you're given. Happy to be corrected if I'm wrong.

 

[Bladerskb]

from vowing to produce 100-200k to only producing 20k in 2017. Gotta love Elon. Overpromising and underdelivering to the T

 

[SageBrush]

Way to go, Tesla!
And Good Luck with the Rocket launch later today ;-)

 

[SageBrush]

from vowing to produce 100-200k to only producing 20k in 2017. Gotta love Elon. Overpromising and underdelivering to the T

Sucks to be a short

 

[SageBrush]

Elon estimates production will ramp exponentially. I graphed from September through December:
AUC approaches 35k for 2017

 

[Garlan Garner]

No. Target was 5000/wk by end of 2017.

Isn't 20K per month and 5K per week the same thing?

Anywhoo, I'm elated that Tesla will be able to produce 20K cars per month in December. The only thing I'm concerned about is the 1 single car that is a dual motor performance version that will be sold to me. LOL

 

[Garlan Garner]

I'm not sure why a delayed rocket launch would delay that statement.

Oh well. Either way...its good news for model 3.


I hope they have a successful launch today.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I wonder what all of the article writers who had this totally wrong are doing now? Like folks who said that Tesla won't ship the model 3 until 2018 and that the Model 3 is just hype and doesn't even exist and/or won't exist.

I think its time for the nay-Sayers to sit down for a lovely meal of crow. LOL

Tesla Says New Model 3 Reservations Won't Arrive for Close to 2 Years
Hazy report claims Tesla Model 3 release may be delayed
Tesla Model 3 is behind schedule & unlikely to ship in 2017
Tesla: Model 3 Bad Timing? - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Tesla is making a risky bet with the Model 3 that could push the company over the edge

 

[Ken7]

So since reports indicate that the assembly line is not yet complete, I guess it's safe to assume that the first cars delivered will be hand built?

 

[Bladerskb]

I wonder what all of the article writers who had this totally wrong are doing now? Like folks who said that Tesla won't ship the model 3 until 2018 and that the Model 3 is just hype and doesn't even exist and/or won't exist.

I think its time for the nay-Sayers to sit down for a lovely meal of crow. LOL

Tesla Says New Model 3 Reservations Won't Arrive for Close to 2 Years
Hazy report claims Tesla Model 3 release may be delayed
Tesla Model 3 is behind schedule & unlikely to ship in 2017
Tesla: Model 3 Bad Timing? - Tesla Motors (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha
Tesla is making a risky bet with the Model 3 that could push the company over the edge

Every single article you quoted were right.
Did you even read it? Elon went from 100-200k by end of 2017 to 90kish by end of 2017 to 30kish by end of 2017.

One article even says:

Thus, don't be surprised if Tesla does not hit the 50,000 Model 3 delivery mark this year, with many bears thinking we won't get close to that level anyway.

Infact the 30 & 100 cars being built in july & august are mostly built by hand. That screams DELAY.
Ofcourse elon is too smart not to hide that in his linguistic attempt to booster TSLA stocks.
While delivering his underdelivery he even over promised some more by saying they could get to 20k per month in december.
Making it seem like their production ramp is even FASTER than what was last projection (10k early 2018).

But this is another part of elon's over promise and what he wants to be in the headlines.
this is all calculated. I predicted that less than 20k model 3s will be produced and i was laughed to scorn.
looks like i am right yet again!

 

[SageBrush]

i was laughed to scorn.

The laughing is only getting louder

 

[Garlan Garner]

Every single article you quoted were right.
Did you even read it? Elon went from 100-200k by end of 2017 to 90kish by end of 2017 to 30kish by end of 2017.

One article even says:

Infact the 30 & 100 cars being built in july & august are mostly built by hand. That screams DELAY.
Ofcourse elon is too smart not to hide that in his linguistic attempt to booster TSLA stocks.
While delivering his underdelivery he even over promised some more by saying they could get to 20k per month in december.
Making it seem like their production ramp is even FASTER than what was last projection (10k early 2018).

But this is another part of elon's over promise and what he wants to be in the headlines.
this is all calculated. I predicted that less than 20k model 3s will be produced and i was laughed to scorn.
looks like i am right yet again!

No they weren't correct. I'm not going back and forth with you, however.....no they are not correct.

Where is your link that they are building the first ones by hand?

 

[Garlan Garner]

So since reports indicate that the assembly line is not yet complete, I guess it's safe to assume that the first cars delivered will be hand built?

Where are the articles and sources for the assembly line not being complete?

 

[dsvick]

Hopefully "handover party" also includes the final release and all the details. I don't think we'll see the configurator open to non employees until September at the earliest but I hope we get everything else on the 28th.

 

[electracity]

Ofcourse elon is too smart not to hide that in his linguistic attempt to booster TSLA stocks.

I don't think Elon cares directly about share price. He has post model 3 deals to make, particularly in China. So valuation is important. But with billions of dollars in play the sophisticated people making the deals would understand the real model 3 production status.

Musk doesn't know how the model 3 will ramp. No one knows.

Also, stamping, welding and painting would not be done "by hand". Slow with corrections is not "by hand".

But I'm sure that they are months away from running the entire assembly process at half speed.

 

[dsvick]

Where are the articles and sources for the assembly line not being complete?

Almost everyone that reported going to the private showing last month reported that the parts of the model 3 assembly line they could see were not complete.