Sunday, Sunday, Sunday!

[Garlan Garner]

Almost everyone that reported going to the private showing last month reported that the parts of the model 3 assembly line they could see were not complete.

Last month?

I'm talking about later this month ( 28th ). That's almost 2 months since the private showing. What have they don't since the private showing? nothing?
Wasn't the painting part of the assembly line finished months ago?
This isn't their first time building a successful assembly line. ( rinse and repeat )
Working 24/7 for ~ 2 months and they can't finish?

 

[Bladerskb]

I don't think Elon cares directly about share price. He has post model 3 deals to make, particularly in China. So valuation is important. But with billions of dollars in play the sophisticated people making the deals would understand the real model 3 production status.

Musk doesn't know how the model 3 will ramp. No one knows.

Also, stamping, welding and painting would not be done "by hand". Slow with corrections is not "by hand".

But I'm sure that they are months away from running the entire assembly process at half speed.

Shares were up like 4% this morning, he knows exactly what he's doing and also by announcing Sunday night.

No they weren't correct. I'm not going back and forth with you, however.....no they are not correct.

Where is your link that they are building the first ones by hand?

hate to break it to you but if you are making only 1 car per day then you are making it by hand. the whole "ahead schedule" thing is laughable. but the media bought it hook line and sinker like they always do and the stocks are sky rocketing.

 

[electracity]

hate to break it to you but if you are making only 1 car per day then you are making it by hand. the whole "ahead schedule" thing is laughable. but the media bought it hook line and sinker like they always do and the stocks are sky rocketing.

You don't know how cars are built.

 

[dsvick]

Last month?

I'm talking about later this month ( 28th ). That's almost 2 months since the private showing. What have they don't since the private showing? nothing?
Wasn't the painting part of the assembly line finished months ago?
This isn't their first time building a successful assembly line. ( rinse and repeat )
Working 24/7 for ~ 2 months and they can't finish?

If people were reporting that it wasn't done a month ago then I'm pretty sure that what they've even doing for the last month is finishing it. They probably have not been working on it 24/7. Yes, the new paint shop was done quite a while ago but that was probably the easiest part of it.

 

[Garlan Garner]

Shares were up like 4% this morning, he knows exactly what he's doing and also by announcing Sunday night.


hate to break it to you but if you are making only 1 car per day then you are making it by hand. the whole "ahead schedule" thing is laughable. but the media bought it hook line and sinker like they always do and the stocks are sky rocketing.

Tesla has the ability to make 1 Model S a day or 1 Model X per day. No?

 

[Garlan Garner]

If people were reporting that it wasn't done a month ago then I'm pretty sure that what they've even doing for the last month is finishing it. They probably have not been working on it 24/7. Yes, the new paint shop was done quite a while ago but that was probably the easiest part of it.

Didn't most of the people during the visit say people were all over the place working like crazy on the robots?

So this is all speculation ... not fact. It was being stated as though it was fact.

 

[Bladerskb]

You don't know how cars are built.

I admit i don't but do you? whats your degree and how many years of car engineering and manufacturing do you have?

Because lots of people who do says Tesla will be delayed and those hype numbers Elon keep throwing around are way off and they have been proven 100%. even more they say the first model 3s will be full of bugs because Tesla skipping testing.

 

[SageBrush]

Because lots of people who do says Tesla will be delayed

The people not good enough to work at Tesla are naysayers

Who Wudda thunk !?!

 

[supratachophobia]

Trolling would imply acting with purpose. I doubt this is the case. There is nothing to be gained by tweeting at the very last second.

Simplest explanation usually most accurate. Something's screwed up, as usual.

He knows he's always late, so yes, there would be something to be gained by waiting until the last second.

 

[cdub]

Mine was working 15 mins ago, but can't get in now.

Prob because you fools broke it because everyone is trying to log in at same time.

 

[gaswalla]

They currently make 100000 cars per year, seems like making a few hundred cars the first month is simple.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Hopefully "handover party" also includes the final release and all the details. I don't think we'll see the configurator open to non employees until September at the earliest but I hope we get everything else on the 28th.

IIRC Tesla has said that the final reveal will be the delivery event.

 

[SageBrush]

It is mildly interesting to go back to Elon's announcement from a year ago, where he estimated (hoped, in his words) to reach volume production by the end of 2017 and to produce 100 - 200k Model 3 in 2017. The first prediction appears to be right on track while the ramp is slower than he hoped.

100k cars in 2017 was widely viewed as hopelessly optimistic, but consider this: if his late December production is correct then his WRONG estimate of 2017 production is off by two months. I find that to be amazingly accurate in the context of something said a year ago, given all the uncertainties that continue to surround Tesla.

 

[electracity]

I admit i don't but do you? whats your degree and how many years of car engineering and manufacturing do you have?

Because lots of people who do says Tesla will be delayed and those hype numbers Elon keep throwing around are way off and they have been proven 100%. even more they say the first model 3s will be full of bugs because Tesla skipping testing.

My undergrad degree is in industrial engineering, and I interned and worked at GM. My expertise is now software, but I did spend my teens and twenties studying and working in factories. I at least have a good idea what I don't know. You don't seem to have a sense of where you lack basic knowledge.

In general I have a moderate position on Tesla. I find both the strong bull and bear positions expressed here and on Seeking Alpha really ignorant.

 

[Waiting4M3]

I like the fact that Elon gave concrete # for Aug, Sep. The production ramp can depend on both the pace of bringing up tools, and also debugging problems. The "S" curve is hard to predict usually because of the difficulty to predict the timeline for debugging, the schedule for tool bring-up should be much more predictable. If Elon is giving concrete projections for Aug/Sep, I think they likely have good visibility that there is no major issues to debug similar to the FWD on MX, just matter to installing more tools and expand capacity.

 

[AlanSqB]

It is mildly interesting to go back to Elon's announcement from a year ago, where he estimated (hoped, in his words) to reach volume production by the end of 2017 and to produce 100 - 200k Model 3 in 2017. The first prediction appears to be right on track while the ramp is slower than he hoped.

100k cars in 2017 was widely viewed as hopelessly optimistic, but consider this: if his late December production is correct then his WRONG estimate of 2017 production is off by two months. I find that to be amazingly accurate in the context of something said a year ago, given all the uncertainties that continue to surround Tesla.

Exactly! The change of year is exacerbating the angst. If we are at 30k by December, what will it be by January? February? I know that production is going to hit external logistics constraints (e.g. Delivery, initial maintenance) but these numbers still look amazing if they are anywhere close to correct.

 

[electracity]

It is mildly interesting to go back to Elon's announcement from a year ago, where he estimated (hoped, in his words) to reach volume production by the end of 2017 and to produce 100 - 200k Model 3 in 2017. The first prediction appears to be right on track while the ramp is slower than he hoped.

100k cars in 2017 was widely viewed as hopelessly optimistic, but consider this: if his late December production is correct then his WRONG estimate of 2017 production is off by two months. I find that to be amazingly accurate in the context of something said a year ago, given all the uncertainties that continue to surround Tesla.

100-200K in 2018 would be great. They have major production problems ahead, and they don't know yet where those problem will occur. They are hopefully only 4-6 months behind Musk's lesser schedule.

 

[AlanSqB]

Also, once you have one line set up and tuned in, should make adding another line much easier as you're just duplicating and not engineering.

 

[Waiting4M3]

Exactly! The change of year is exacerbating the angst. If we are at 30k by December, what will it be by January? February? I know that production is going to hit external logistics constraints (e.g. Delivery, initial maintenance) but these numbers still look amazing if they are anywhere close to correct.

I'm sure there will be many experts on logistics on the blogs who will point out every mistake Tesla have and will make along the way, just like those experts on design, engineering, manufacturing, etc.

 

[Waiting4M3]

100-200K in 2018 would be great. They have major production problems ahead, and they don't know yet where those problem will occur. They are hopefully only 4-6 months behind Musk's lesser schedule.

Tesla brought the production online 2 weeks ahead of schedule, at the beginning of July, and now they are "hopefully only 4-6 months behind"? I don't understand the logic