For me, figuring it out is easy. Here is the decision tree:
Do you need cash now?
--No. Then HODL Tesla shares.
--Yes. Then borrow cash and HODL Tesla shares.
I suspect that folks tempted to sell shares now are forgetting two facts:
1) This company is historic. There has never been anything like it, with a combination of...
- genius, workaholic, polymath CEO
- global braintrust of top-1% engineering talent
- corporate mission and other incentives attracting more top talent
- corporate culture driving rapid relentless innovation and improvements
- multiple, huge, accelerating technology leads
- vertical integration and talent/tech sharing with rocket geniuses
- gargantuan addressable markets (global transportation and energy)
- vast untapped or barely tapped market segments (robotaxis, trucking, solar roofs, virtual power-plants)
- vast untapped or barely tapped market regions (China, India, South America, Middle East, Africa)
- doubling product line in the next few years (Cybertruck, Semi, Roadster2, "world cars")
- doubling (or more) production capacity in the next few years (Giga Shanghai, Berlin, Austin)
- unlimited future opportunities for the engineering braintrust (home HVAC, air and underground transport, on Earth and Mars)
- fanatical, evangelical, exponentially growing customer base
- unprecedented social tailwinds (accelerating climate change, growing government incentives)
Bears scoff at the current stock price and the idea that it will 10x again. "That would be a $6 trillion market cap! When has that ever happened?!" Well,
several times in history, adjusted for inflation. But Tesla is making history.
2) This stock has turned a corner. HODLers endured 5 years of price stagnation and some gut-wrenching drops. Some folks might be traumatized and think the stock is still risky. But TSLA's future will not be like the past, because...
- major index inclusions are incoming (S&P 500 and 100)
- bond rating upgrades are incoming (if the raters want to be taken seriously)
- at least 15% of available shares are disappearing permanently into index funds
- up to 22% of available shares are disappearing likely permanently into benchmarked funds
- FUD will have no or little effect on those shareholders
- clueless or dishonest analysts will have no or little effect on those shareholders
- Tesla's "fortress balance sheet" now has $20 billion in cash
- all bear theses (unprofitability, inexperience, no demand, competition) have been discredited except excessive valuation
- this last bear thesis will be discredited by the imminent FSD rollout, blowout Q4 earnings, and new products and production capacity coming next year
- Tesla is now sandbagging their guidance to consistently beat expectations
FUD and abusive analysts will continue, but clearly they are losing effect. Volatility may continue, but so will the upward trend. The global market is waking up to TSLA. Usually when picking a stock, you must choose between safety and huge potential. TSLA offers both, in my studied opinion.
