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#161
jbih said:
  • EVs are the future
  • Tesla has 80% market share of BEV in the US
  • Others are not catching up fast. Who knows, maybe Tesla is innovating faster than others are catching up.
I wouldn't be too surprised if Tesla produced 50 million cars per year in 2030 with a market share between 30 and 80%.

Tesla would only need to grow 50% per year for these numbers. (I think growth is more like an S-curve, so stronger growth in the beginning and then levelling off.)

Don't bet against innovation.
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Completely agree with the above. One analyst I was just listening to pointed out that there is all his hullaballoo, but TSLA share price is where it was less than 2 weeks ago. Very volatile stock -- not for the faint of heart, but I think it's for those who can envision the future and filter out the noise and the idiotic "drive-by" analysts.
 
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#162
BY GOLLY WHAT'S THIS
 

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#169
jbih said:
TCO of the Model 3 is now much lower than incumbents' comparable offerings (3 series, C-Class, ...), .
Click to expand...

To expand on that, the Model 3 is already significantly cheaper than the competition, so Tesla will hopefully not have to lower the prices to sell the Model 3. They only have to lower the prices because of service hell and because of shorts successfully spreading FUD and thus lowering demand. Service hell will probably stay for the next 10 years, but the FUD is becoming ineffective. So I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla can raise prices while lowering production costs, nicely increasing the profit margin.
 
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#170
jbih said:
To expand on that, the Model 3 is already significantly cheaper than the competition, so Tesla will hopefully not have to lower the prices to sell the Model 3. They only have to lower the prices because of service hell and because of shorts successfully spreading FUD and thus lowering demand. Service hell will probably stay for the next 10 years, but the FUD is becoming ineffective. So I wouldn't be surprised if Tesla can raise prices while lowering production costs, nicely increasing the profit margin.
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An observation about raising prices on Model 3. If Tesla raising prices on Model 3 is an important component of your investment thesis, then I suggest evaluating your investment without the price raises to figure out if it's necessary to your investment success.

I say that because while I would trust virtually every other CEO of a US company to raise prices if they could on such a successful product, I trust Elon to maintain prices or lower them as Tesla's cost to build Model 3's decreases.


My point isn't that Model 3 process will go down, up, or stay flat - my point is that if your investment thesis _needs_ a particular outcome, especially if it's increasing prices while cost to build goes down, then you may be disappointed. My own assessment is that if your investment thesis needs that combination of events, then it will fail.

(Elon doesn't lower prices because he has to - he lowers prices because he wants to AND he can maintain adequate cash flow / profit while doing so)
 
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#171
adiggs said:
(Elon doesn't lower prices because he has to - he lowers prices because he wants to AND he can maintain adequate cash flow / profit while doing so)
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In general yes, but currently the prices are lowered to generate demand, due to actually damaging FUD. I believe the FUD is becoming less effective, allowing for more appropriate prices. The target for gross margin was 30%.
 
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#172
adiggs said:
(Elon doesn't lower prices because he has to - he lowers prices because he wants to AND he can maintain adequate cash flow / profit while doing so)
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Tesla changes pricing for 2 things
- right mix for a particular ASP/Margin
- match sales to production

Infact, currently the prices are actually too low to get 25% margin that they had been talking about. Musk now thinks they need delivery of FSD features to get to 25% margin (from ER call).
 
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#173
To me this setup is getting ridiculous.

For countries that are tracked daily we are up 23% so far.

April/May vs. July/August
US Model 3: 10%
US Model X: 26%
US Model S: 9%

EU Model 3: 36% (Hello UK!)
EU Model X: -18% (US more than makes up for it with higher numbers)
EU Model S: 5%

China: If they get all boats in it will at least be even since boat 7 from Q2 was possibly Q3 deliveries?
Australia Model 3: Infinity% (I guess at least another 2,000 or so, maybe more.)

Overall EU/US: 15%
EU/US Model S/X: 11%

If we end up with 15% more deliveries this quarter we are looking at 109,500 cars. Does that sound crazy to you? Well, it isn't based on the numbers. If China is weak we still have Australia. We know China is possibly also up based on ship loading times.

It seems like something that is going to shock the markets. And to help the financials we are looking at almost 20,000 Model S/X as well.

We only need a 7% increase in revenue from Q2 to exceed Q3 2018 revenue and indicate that the growth story has resumed. And then it seems like Tesla Energy is starting to be capable of ramping.

I feel the deliveries report will boost the stock again like last quarter and depending on how that goes we'll see about earnings. After all, if there is year-over-year revenue growth it isn't going to be particularly large. And now suddenly I know lots of people who want a Tesla but have to wait for the right timing and/or the Model Y/Pickup/etc.

$1,420.69 here we come!
 
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#175
TrendTrader007 said:
So I suffered major drawdowns in my portfolio between December 2018 -until two days ago because of short-sellers mischief/ misconduct
Happy to report that just 2 days made all the difference and my portfolio which is 100% $tsla calls is back in black and at an ATH
Click to expand...
Woot!

My trading account is now almost black after an ill advised margin addition at the the time of 'The Tweet'. Hopefully, the 401k I transferred in at the same time will soon be on the plus side also.
 
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#179
TrendTrader007 said:
So I suffered major drawdowns in my portfolio between December 2018 -until two days ago because of short-sellers mischief/ misconduct
Happy to report that just 2 days made all the difference and my portfolio which is 100% $tsla calls is back in black and at an ATH
Click to expand...

Congrats! What's your take short-term over the coming 4ish weeks? I don't believe in a short squeeze but will we see a short covering rally?
 
#180
xfea said:
Actually I'm BULLISH....
Know why?
Because ELON himself has told us THE ANSWER.

As we know - Model 3's are appreciating assets...
Additionally, very soon - in the ROBO era near the end of the year - they will be INCOME producing assets ~ $30,000 / yr.
I surmise that the 10Q will tell us that:
TESLA is amassing a fleet of M3's - say 100,000 - putting these assets on the books -
And when they APPRECIATE and start to produce sizable INCOME (100% / annual).

That's around $3 BILLION income in addition to a handsome gain in asset value....

TESLA shares will easily top $2,500 - $5,000

I BE SUPER BULLISH!
Click to expand...

Be careful. xfea is a bear. He is trolling randomly.
 
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