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#322
Thinking about the two upcoming bonus quarters coming up:
  1. Valuation allowance for deferred tax
  2. Taking 100% FSD deferred revenue
@The Accountant thinks Q4 '21 is reasonable for 1. Q3 is possible for 2.
  • What will Elon want?
  • Smooth quarterly increments - better to put them off to 2022
  • One big quarter with both to blow everyone away and then go back to business as usual
Option 1
Q3 - profitability level 1
Q4 - profitability level 2
Q1 - profitability level 3
Q2 - profitability level 4
Q3 - profitability level 5+3=8
Q4 - profitability level 6+3=9
Q1 - profitability level drops to 7 (smooth)

Option 2
Q3 - profitability level 1
Q4 - profitability level 2+3+3=8 (very lumpy)
Q1 - profitability level drops to 3
Q2 - profitability level 4
Q3 - profitability level 5
Q4 - profitability level 6
Q1 - profitability level 7

Other options could include spreading out FSD further. Or spreading between financial years.

Should be fun!
 
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#329
Are you a frustrated super bull that is so optimistic that tomorrow is always break out day?

Yes?

I was too.

Worry not - I have a remedy for you.

Selling weekly calls is the answer.

Two things will happen:
  1. You will learn more about TSLA and why it won't be going up next week most likely
  2. The frustration will disappear - in fact you will catch yourself smiling with glee as TSLA drops - you don't know what you want anymore
Warning - serious investment device - you can lose more than you think. More info found here:
Applying options strategy 'the wheel' to TSLA
 
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#333
I've been a superbull since 2015, but this is my first post in this forum. In fact, I stumbled across this forum for the first time and read every post since the beginning. And what an auspicious time, with the SP closing with a (post-split) price of $1114.

What strikes me, is that the major goals for the company from 2018 (autonomous driving, megapack, battery and manufacturing innovation) have still not borne financial fruit yet! This is extremely bullish, because they are all about to.

The Austin and Berlin factories are just about completed, and structural battery packs are about to be implemented. With supply chain issues easing, megapacks can finally be produced in volume. FSD is a big variable, but after watching AI Day, it wouldn't surprise me if the first Robotaxi fare takes place in 2022.

I think we will look back on a $1 trillion market cap as an amazing buying opportunity.
 
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#336
A sprinkling of super bull comments from the main thread:
Dutchie said:
My takeaway is that Elon is much further ahead than we all are. While we look at production numbers, release of structural pack etc. He is thinking of robots running factories and doing household chore. FSD, which will be the largest profit machine in something like two/three years time etc. He isn’t thinking about cars and models at all anymore!
Click to expand...

MartinAustin said:
What some are piecing together here is, Tesla will introduce FSD and robotaxi software, and Model 3 & Y owners will be able to offer their cars for rides for as little as $5 a ride - or less - depending on the distance and so on. A dollar a mile? There are a lot of people who can't afford a $25,000 new car and would have trouble paying for a $16,000 new car. But they are always open to buying an $8,000 used car or a $5,000 used car. Such cars aren't as safe to drive and usually come with a list of repairs or things that need to be done on them. If you can ride in a new-ish $40,000+ smooth+quiet electric car that drives itself, won't get into a crash, is very safe for you if someone else crashes into you, and you don't need to insure it or pay for parking it anywhere, and it only costs you $5, you are going to do it and work out how to avoid buying your own car. This is why the market for the $25,000 car isn't as strong as we think it might be. Anywhere globally. Because Tesla are working on FSD first. We should be thinking of the $25,000 car as the "$25,000 individually-owned and driven" car. In that light, it doesn't seem as important.
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jkirkwood001 said:
C'mon! I don't agree with all the whining about this call! (Waaah no Cybertruck!
Waaah no Model 2!
Waaah no Roadster!)

Okay, as a Tesla enthusiast, ii get it. But as an investor (what's this forum called again?) they are basically saying "in 2022 we're going to focus production on making more cars and more profit. Oh and as we ramp, we'll focus R&D on high-value-add FSD and AI robot."

What's not to like??
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Mark Alset said:
Yes, this is the way. Another thing to consider--once FSD is enabled, this is going to drive massive growth in Tesla's energy division (and any other company that sells solar systems). People who own FSD cars will be foolish if they don't also purchase enough solar panels to offset energy usage of the FSD-enabled cars.

The amount of profit one makes per mile is inversely correlated with electricity rate. Purchasing solar will, after payback period, drive electricity rate to zero, which increases $profit/mile for the life of the car and solar array.

Put another way, people who own FSD-enabled cars plus solar will be able to undercut and steal business/rides from people who don't own solar. This will precipitate a race to the bottom (unless Tesla sets a floor on the $/mi that someone can charge for use of FSD-enabled cars).

It's absolutely nutty to think about, how the economics of FSD, and FSD itself, will massively accelerate the transition to clean energy. FSD is likely to represent a singularity in human civilization--pre FSD and post FSD. Post FSD: how people and things in the civilized world get around will be different, how the civilized world sources energy will be different (bye bye oil Cos). And Tesla, if they are the first to solve FSD, they are positioned to capitalize financially (on a massive scale) once this post-FSD world emerges.
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Mengy said:
I was initially disappointed about no real CT details or updates and the "delayed" $25K car, and how 2022 will focus on ramping the M3 and MY only. Then I heard them state 2022 production growth will be "well in excess of 50%" with conviction. Then Elon went ham about FSD being super close to "ready" and how Optimus seems to be the main priority now and how it could be worth more than the rest of the company combined. And two new factories possibly announced by EoY 2022. And batteries won't be a bottleneck for 2022, and energy is about to ramp in a big way. Oh and yeah, the actual financial numbers were incredibly awesome for Q4 2021.

Now that I've had time to digest it all, I'm more bullish than ever about Tesla's future. Not just it's long term future but it's NEAR term future, like by the end of this year future. The world thinks lots of cars are the future of Tesla while the company is already looking two steps past cars. Autos are just a thing they do to keep busy, and in time it sounds like autos will be a MINOR part of the business.

I'm so glad I'm heavily invested in this company. :D
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Thekiwi said:
Elon could definitely have answered the “how 3 million cars in 2024 without new cheaper model?” Analyst question better - with simple statement that demand for current models will get to that number by themselves easily (the standard range Model Y will see massive demand all over the globe once capacity allows for it to actually be built in the numbers required).

But otherwise I LOVED the earnings call:
- loved the Optimus talk about being the potential bigger market opportunity for Tesla
- loved that growth this year will comfortably exceed 50% (with 50% growth coming from Shanghai & Fremont alone!)
- loved that they are explicity not battery cell constrained (being held back by chip supply)
- loved that finally we received 100% confirmation that 4680 cells are a go, and will be shipped in Austin model Ys as soon as the vehicle receives certification! (Hopefully this quarter)
- loved that they have so many product ideas (integrated HVAC/water heater sounds very likely - hope they eventually get into full prefab housing solutions, where a semi arrives with all the supplies and half a dozen Optimus bots erect it in a day).

Edit to add: I think Optimus might become operational before the robotaxi network does.
Click to expand...

wooter said:
It's not about your nine neighbours.

It's about your 900 neighbours, who will decide that instead of driving their kids to school themselves, they just call a robocab.

And then decide that having 2 cars on the driveway is stupid, so sell one (or put one in as a robocab) and have mom drive to work in a robocab.

And then decide that the single family car is quite expensive to just park on the driveway, and sell it and then also dad uses a robocab to go to work.

We won't end up in 5 years at the last step, but it might go quicker than 20 years.
Click to expand...

wooter said:
A Model 3 is similar sized as a previous generation BMW 3 series. They're comfortable, but not big, nor compact.

A ID.3 sized Tesla with Tesla features would still cost similar, would not gain additional revenue that's now left on the table but would just slow down production.

And there is the real possibility that Elon and Tesla are pulling a reverse Osborne: by saying that they aren't working on a compact car, people will not wait for a compact Tesla and just go for a Model 3.
Click to expand...

jeewee3000 said:
Credibility is in the eye of the beholder. From your comments it is clear you are not convinced FSD will be achieved in 2022, nor with the current hardware.

I disagree since:
1) Elon was talking about "FSD software outperforms the average human", i.e. amount of miles driven by FSD without any incident/intervention is higher than the amount of miles driven by the average human between incidents. Since the average human is a combination of lousy, accident prone drivers and immaculate drivers that never have an accident, the average is not hard to beat, according to Elon. He said so literally: the "better than the average human-benchmark" is a low bar, one that he feels very confident they will beat this year, with current hardware.

Elon has all the data. We don't. He even acknowledged FSD timelines were off many times in the past, but still he wanted to go on the call and make these claims. After all he's learned regarding underpromising and overperforming, I'm highly convinced human-bar-FSD will indeed happen this year, with current hardware.

2) for the march of nines they will indeed use DOJO and some more years. FSD is not a static milestone, but will be finetuned in the years/decades to come. This is indeed something that will take time, and most likely hardware upgrades. But that is not what Elon was talking about on the call.

3) even if FSD takes more time, Tesla's future earnings are not in question. They are selling a $50k product at high (and growing) margins. Tesla is not doomed without FSD. Of course it's valuation will be (way) higher with FSD, but still a great investment.

Other notes regarding FSD:
- notice how the voices shouting "LIDAR is necessary for FSD" are shouting less and less hard these days? Every quarter FSD beta progress improves, without silly expensive LIDAR. Waymo and other competitors are wetting their trousers about this, I'm sure of it.
- the fact that Elon is already switching over to Optimus in his AI step-by-step program in his mind, shows that solving FSD is almost a done deal. I mean the path to FSD is so clear for Elon it isn't a question mark anymore. He is already thinking of what's next for real-world AI applications.

FSD might be off-topic most of the time, but today I took the liberty of adressing it since it was one of the biggest reveals on the call.
Click to expand...

Krugerrand said:
I think you are very wrong about Optimus. When robot was introduced it was ‘something that makes sense for us to do down the road’.

In a very short period of time, Optimus leap-frogged multiple new vehicles in priority. Why?

There have been hints along the way that Tesla is having various workforce issues; GigaNevada, several ‘recruitment’ events and comments - including a ‘hey, come work for us if -‘ comment made by Elon in this ER call and the last one, talk of opening schools and investment in colleges/universities in areas around their factories etc…

There are several references in the world of the pandemic causing a vast wave of people to unexpectedly leave the workforce.

The world has yet another ‘people’ problem. Optimus solves some of that for Tesla’s incredible growth aspirations.

You are not thinking big enough.
Click to expand...

Dan Detweiler said:
Just an FYI...I drive FSD Beta every day. In my opinion, people spend an inordinate amount if time focusing on what it can't do and precious little on what it can do. No, it is not ready for wide spread release nor Level 5 status. That said, it is correct and safe 99% of the time. In fact, it has saved me from imminent accidents more than once. As it exists right now, when used in conjunction with an attentive driver, it is saving lives. It is avoiding accidents, saving people potential medical expenses and repair bills, and reducing the owner's exposure to potential rising insurance rates from accidents.

On top of that, it is getting better. With every update it is smoother, more confident, and more consistent. Let's focus on what it IS accomplishing and how it IS improving, maybe not so much on what it can't do...YET.

As Elon has said many times, this is an incredibly difficult problem to solve. One which nobody else seems willing to tackle meaningfully. The street seems only willing to give credence to the potential economics of FSD. There is far more to FSD than Robotaxis, and in the area of safety it is already saving lives. To me, that is the real focus here. Tesla is solving this problem...weather a bunch of suits and talking heads on CNBC recognize it's value or not.

Dan
Click to expand...

The Accountant said:
Martin Viecha: Question from Toni Sacconaghi of Berstein. Toni, please go ahead.
Toni Saccaghi: Yes thank you. This question is directed at Elon. Elon, without the $25k car, how will you get to 3.2m cars in 2024?
Elon: I'll let The Accountant take this question.
The Accountant: Thanks Elon. Toni, I posted my 5 year plan on TMC on Jan 17. As you can see, the $25k compact is not needed in 2024 to reach 3.2m deliveries. The Model Y will be the best selling car in the world while being produced in 4 factories and the Cybertruck will be in its second year of production. If the compact comes in 2024, it will be icing on the cake. Oh and by the way, you didn't ask but I'll add, Tesla will have industry leading operating margins of 22% in 2024.

View attachment 760928


teslamotorsclub.com

Tesla Valuation Based on 5 Year Outlook

Great set of numbers. I should just quit my job now :). Why do residential solar roof sites increase to 1.2m/yr in 2023 before dropping back to 50k/yr from 2024 onwards? Ooops. I made a silly and overwrote the equation in the MW-table that was driven by the #-table. So the MW table is...
teslamotorsclub.com teslamotorsclub.com
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SOULPEDL said:
Wait... we were allowed to smoke on planes at one time? Seems ludicrous now.

And 5 yrs from now...
Wait... we were allowed to drive our cars at one time? Seems ludicrous now.

Then 10 yrs from now...
Wait... we were allowed to burn oil in automobile engines at one time? Seems ludicrous now.
Click to expand...

Words of HABIT said:
Tesla beats in Revenue and Earnings.
Yahoo Finance now show Q1 2022 Consensus EPS as $2.15, a drop from just released Q4 2021 of $2.56.
So the Consensus just doesn't get where Tesla is going (purple line), and Consensus has reset their misinformed estimates which they will continue to push upwards over the course of the quarter as they have always done. Tesla's trend is onwards and upwards. The 2021 Financials and 2022 Look Ahead only supports this movement. TSLA will catch up with Tesla, it always has. Time is your friend.
View attachment 760964
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#338
Gigapress said:
Teslas in tunnels beats subways on every single important criterion for evaluating transit architectures. It’s not even close. Loop is the Personal Rapid Transit system of our utopian urban planning dreams and it’s also one of the biggest upcoming TSLA tailwinds in the next 10 years.

Some of the advantages vs trains:
  • 2x-10x higher average speed, especially for journeys greater than ~5 miles where 150 mph top speed can be maintained
  • Point-to-point service; zero intermediate stops and zero need for riders to transfer from one vehicle to another
  • Private vehicles for one party at a time
  • Typically will have zero wait time once scaled (on-demand service)
  • Order of magnitude more maximum rider capacity per dollar than subways, especially in North America
  • One or two orders of magnitude higher station density, and thus shorter distances between station and start and end points
  • Lowest unsubsidized total cost per passenger-mile of any mode of high speed motorized transport of all time
  • Can be economical even for routes with insufficient demand to justify a train line, enabling expansion further out to suburbs, between cities in a region, and in smaller cities and towns
  • Integrates stations directly into existing parking lots and parking garages
  • Incrementally expandable; no need to accurately predict demand years into the future
  • Vehicle fleet can be dynamically routed to serve whichever routes currently have highest demand
  • Does not contribute to spread of communicable disease
  • Lower average energy consumption per passenger-mile (surprisingly)
  • Cars can charge during times when energy is cheap (midday sunshine) whereas trains add to peak electricity demand in morning and late afternoon
  • Less opportunity for crime at stations while waiting
  • 100% privately funded; taxpayer resources used only for planning & permitting and training local first responders; with 5% franchise fee as in Vegas, government actually directly turns a profit on inviting Loop infrastructure construction to their jurisdiction
  • Can be constructed in months instead of decades
  • Vehicles are completely compatible with existing surface road network
  • Rubber tires on pavement can climb steeper slopes than steel train wheels on steel tracks
  • No high-speed train that can strike and kill people leaning off the platform or on the tracks (this is uncommon but sadly does happen)
  • No high-voltage touch and fire ignition hazard
  • Much easier and safer emergency egress conditions and much better fire safety in general
  • Mass-produced vehicles are cheaper to replace and don’t require as much specialized knowledge and tools and parts for maintenance and repairs
  • Multiple tunnels in parallel with many small vehicles eliminates the single point of failure inherent to train design. At most, one party is inconvenienced by a vehicle failure and within a couple minutes at most, another car can come to pick them up and take a different route to the destination.
  • More comfortable ride
  • Cleaner cabin air due to Tesla HEPA filters / Bioweapon Defense Mode. Filter also make Loop resistant to bioterrorism threats.
  • More comfortable cabin temperature because door isn’t opening to outside air every couple minutes
  • More mechanically comfortable ride because Tesla powertrain and suspension on nice smooth pavement is a gentle ride compared to bumpy jerky trains
  • Because of ability for vehicles to climb steeper slopes, stations can be at or near surfaces, eliminating need for expensive stairs/escalators/elevators and associated time needed for riders to travel between station and surface
  • No need for users to research complex train lines and schedules; user just specifies desired destination and rides
  • Can accommodate passengers carrying lots of cargo
  • People with varying levels of physical mobility and urgency can board and exit vehicles at their own pace independently of each other’s travel speed; More accessibility and inclusion and more convenience--everyone wins
  • No chance of catastrophic derailing accidents
  • Much easier to navigate and use for people with blindness
  • Quieter ride which combined with private cabin enables excellent music experience; also audiobooks, podcasts, movies & shows on vehicle screen, etc.
Loop’s end game is basically to use platooning with EV robotaxis (from Tesla most likely) to effectively form dynamic trains joined by software instead of steel hitches to cleverly combine all the advantages of personal car road transport and of trains/busses into one system while deleting all the downsides except for encouraging sedentariness and obesity. However, it will indirectly help even that by killing demand for slow, gridlocked surface car transport with all its annoying turns and red lights and make the surface better for muscle-powered human transit.

The implications of this are massively underappreciated by Tesla bulls in my opinion.
Click to expand...
 
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#339
1654250418942.png


When Optimus was first revealed on August 19th 2021 it was a concept.

Second AI Day was going to happen August 19th 2022 but has been delayed to (only) September 30th, 13 months after reveal.

In 13 months their concept could become a prototype. If this is useful in any way, Tesla could deploy Optimus in-house by early 2023 (in limited numbers, but still). This costs Tesla virtually nothing in R&D but adds in cost-saving if it can replace just one worker per factory. (Most likely it could save for example 30 mins per day for 16 people adding up to one shift)

The mere bulls place no value in Optimus yet as they believe this will only help the business within (at least) 5 years, more likely 10+.

I think they could be off by a factor of five.
 
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#340
Shadow worker, copy worker; be an assistant filling up bins with bolts, passing over next part/fixing as a helper etc

Either is fine, staff hopefully move to supervising, improving, quality roles that are more fulfilling. Optimus might be slower or faster, can run 24 hours a day *7 if charging separately not required and maintenance low. Induction/ graze charging possibilities. Graze meaning little and often, not giant charging sessions.
 
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