Wiki Super Heavy/Starship - General Development Discussion

[Stook02ss]

I think that just as with Berlin GF the Starship delays have nothing to do with paperwork and govt agencies- SpaceX is not ready. Rather EM is displaying a worrisome trend of insinuating regulators are to blame for delays when in fact it his own companies not being ready. Frankly this is beginning to bug me and eventually it is going to bite back. Especially for a entities completely dependent on the good graces of this government and who could never have hoped to achieve what he is doing in either company without the support of the governments, Federal, State, and Local.

I tend to agree. I do think they could have launched a month ago, but I don't think it was something they were really planning on doing. If all they wanted was to send up a far less refined version of B4 and SN20, they probably could have. They are pretty good at 'getting it done'. I just don't think it was ever something they were desperate to do, that the delays didn't really set them back. Instead they've been able to further refine B4 and SN20, bringing them both up to a much more polished spec, as well as largely finish the launch infrastructure.

The other sign that they never really intended on a 2021 launch was the NASA document that was shared last year that talked about NASA observing SpaceX's Starship during reentry. That's right... NASA published a document that said they would be flying an aircraft in the Pacific in MARCH 2022 to observe Starship as it reenters from what we assume would be its maiden flight. Let that sink in..... lol. I'm pretty sure March was always the realistic plan.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

Tug Signet Warhorse II towing the Deimos rig from Port of Brownsville to Pascagoula for conversion!

https://www.youtube.com/c/RGVAerialPhotography/videos

https://www.youtube.com/c/NASASpaceflightVideos/videos

 

[nativewolf]

I tend to agree. I do think they could have launched a month ago, but I don't think it was something they were really planning on doing. If all they wanted was to send up a far less refined version of B4 and SN20, they probably could have. They are pretty good at 'getting it done'. I just don't think it was ever something they were desperate to do, that the delays didn't really set them back. Instead they've been able to further refine B4 and SN20, bringing them both up to a much more polished spec, as well as largely finish the launch infrastructure.

The other sign that they never really intended on a 2021 launch was the NASA document that was shared last year that talked about NASA observing SpaceX's Starship during reentry. That's right... NASA published a document that said they would be flying an aircraft in the Pacific in MARCH 2022 to observe Starship as it reenters from what we assume would be its maiden flight. Let that sink in..... lol. I'm pretty sure March was always the realistic plan.

Now that is interesting. And right about on schedule with the projected completion.

 

[Electroman]

If you notice, the first stage landed a bit off to the center by maybe around 10 feet away from center. NOT a big deal at all. But I would think you need that level of precision to land the booster and the starship on the arms of Godzilla launchpad.

 

[Cosmacelf]

If you notice, the first stage landed a bit off to the center by maybe around 10 feet away from center. NOT a big deal at all. But I would think you need that level of precision to land the booster and the starship on the arms of Godzilla launchpad.

Not the same environment. Ship is rocked due to ocean, thrusters compensate, but they aren't perfect. I imagine the wind is probably higher there usually as well. Finally, F9 does a hover slam to minimize fuel - ie it never hovers, it thrusts until speed is zero. Starship should be able to actually hover, and thus maneuver around laterally while doing so. Remember that arms are open until time to close them.

 

[ecarfan]

Not the same environment…Starship should be able to actually hover, and thus maneuver around laterally while doing so. Remember that arms are open until time to close them.

Agreed. And the expertise SpaceX has accumulated from now well over 100 successful F9 booster landings will serve it in good stead when it comes to precise control of Starship while landing at “Stage Zero”. Of course Starship is relying on a very different technique to get the vehicle to the point where it is vertical and descending very slowly with no lateral movement. But SpaceX will repeatedly practice that technique over the ocean until it gets it right; then it can do it next to the launch tower and employ the chopsticks.

I am pretty confident that SpaceX can make it work, eventually. It’s going to be super exciting to watch the testing process!

 

[Electroman]

Starship should be able to actually hover, and thus maneuver around laterally while doing so.

Thank you and good points. Although I am not sure you can do lateral movements when hovering, because when vertical speed is zero or close to zero, the grid fins are ineffective.

 

[bxr140]

Thank you and good points. Although I am not sure you can do lateral movements when hovering, because when vertical speed is zero or close to zero, the grid fins are ineffective.

Low air velocity maneuvers are performed by gimbaling the engines. Its like balancing a baby on your hand.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Thank you and good points. Although I am not sure you can do lateral movements when hovering, because when vertical speed is zero or close to zero, the grid fins are ineffective.

Their main rocket motors can gimbal, meaning direct their thrust in different directions. At slow speeds, that’s what both F9 and Starship uses to make final course corrections.

 

[EVCollies]

Agreed. And the expertise SpaceX has accumulated from now well over 100 successful F9 booster landings will serve it in good stead when it comes to precise control of Starship while landing at “Stage Zero”. Of course Starship is relying on a very different technique to get the vehicle to the point where it is vertical and descending very slowly with no lateral movement. But SpaceX will repeatedly practice that technique over the ocean until it gets it right; then it can do it next to the launch tower and employ the chopsticks.

I am pretty confident that SpaceX can make it work, eventually. It’s going to be super exciting to watch the testing process!

Remembering the first unsuccessful F9 landings on drone ships, would SpaceX make the first attempts on the yet to be completed new offshore platforms? Would be a shame to loose so much Stage 0 infrastructure...

 

[Cosmacelf]

Remembering the first unsuccessful F9 landings on drone ships, would SpaceX make the first attempts on the yet to be completed new offshore platforms? Would be a shame to loose so much Stage 0 infrastructure...

Well the very first attempt would be a hover over a spot in the ocean. They won’t try a catch landing until they are pretty sure of success.

 

[ecarfan]

Remembering the first unsuccessful F9 landings on drone ships, would SpaceX make the first attempts on the yet to be completed new offshore platforms? Would be a shame to loose so much Stage 0 infrastructure...

Sorry, I should have been more clear in my post, when I said “repeatedly practice that technique over the ocean” I meant soft landings in the water (not on a platform) just like SpaceX initially did with the F9, as @Cosmacelf correctly noted.

Once SpaceX could accurately and gently land an F9 in the water it tried ASDS (barge) landings and failed multiple times. Details are here Falcon 9 first-stage landing tests - Wikipedia. The first successful landing was on land at Cape Canaveral on 12/121/2015 (I vividly remember watching live that historic moment!). After that there were two more failures on an ASDS and then on April 8th, success!

So, after test landings on water with the Booster and Starship, will SpaceX then start making landing attempts on their converted offshore platform, or will they try at Stage Zero at Starbase? The offshore platform seems the safer approach. But I think it possible that they may try first at Stage Zero with the Booster and on the platform with Starship. SpaceX has a more solid understanding of what is required for a successful booster landing based on their F9 experience. Starship is a much harder challenge, I would guess. (Full disclaimer; not a rocket scientist!)

 

[Grendal]

The last real landing failure for SpaceX F9 where it was likely part of the landing process was Eutelsat on 6/15/.16. Which is roughly six months after the first successful landing. So it took six tries to "dial it in." Since that point there have been failures but either with something on the rocket or truly pushing the envelope like the center core FH attempts. I'm expecting similar issues in "dialing in" Starship and Super Heavy. Super Heavy should be reasonably quick since it isn't doing anything too dissimilar from what the F9 booster does. Starship might take about twice as long as F9 because of the complexity of the landing sequence. So I'd say about a year and losing about four to six Starships and about one or two Super Heavies. Once it is somewhat perfected then Elon and SpaceX will really start cranking out the successful designs. Within two years from there, we'll see the "Block 5" version of both make their debut and then the manufacturing rate will go up substantially. Elon will want one Starship a month from each factory (more than one) and a Super Heavy every quarter.

There's my prediction for Starship/SH development process.

I hope I live long enough to see the first steps of Mars colonization.

 

[JohnnyEnglish]

I hope I live long enough to see the first steps of Mars colonization.

Ditto

 

[JRP3]

Starship failures could also take out the catch tower.

 

[HVM]

 

[ecarfan]

Another full stack procedure completed of B4/S20! It appears to have taken about 54 minutes from the first movement of S20 at the bottom of the tower to full contact with B4. The last 0.5m or so went extremely slowly. I would guess that SpaceX could easily cut the overall time in half with a bit more practice. I wonder how long it takes to stack an SLS? Probably weeks.

Video of the stacking process

 

[bxr140]

Another full stack procedure completed of B4/S20! It appears to have taken about 54 minutes from the first movement of S20 at the bottom of the tower to full contact with B4. The last 0.5m or so went extremely slowly. I would guess that SpaceX could easily cut the overall time in half with a bit more practice.

Be advised that when lifting space hardware, as is the case with most bespoke/unique lifting operations (as opposed a construction site or warehouse or dock crane moving materials around), the rigging/disconnect and attach/derigging phases take FAR longer than then actual transit. Right now the end to end stacking cycle for Starship is easily many hours.

No doubt SpaceX will reduce the transit time as they evolve the process/tooling and especially as they get better with the final alignment, but the big win on cycle time will be maximizing efficiency on bolting the two big pieces together.

I wonder how long it takes to stack an SLS?

Probably about the same (and maybe even faster) transit time if we're talking about putting A Thing on top of Another Thing, given that SLS uses a typical bridge crane instead of Starship's more unique equipment.

The pre/post transit phases for something like SLS will undoubtedly take much longer than ~equivalent activity performed by SpaceX, and obviously because SLS has many more pieces the whole process will take much longer.

 

[Stook02ss]

Be advised that when lifting space hardware, as is the case with most bespoke/unique lifting operations (as opposed a construction site or warehouse or dock crane moving materials around), the rigging/disconnect and attach/derigging phases take FAR longer than then actual transit. Right now the end to end stacking cycle for Starship is easily many hours.

No doubt SpaceX will reduce the transit time as they evolve the process/tooling and especially as they get better with the final alignment, but the big win on cycle time will be maximizing efficiency on bolting the two big pieces together.



Probably about the same (and maybe even faster) transit time if we're talking about putting A Thing on top of Another Thing, given that SLS uses a typical bridge crane instead of Starship's more unique equipment.

The pre/post transit phases for something like SLS will undoubtedly take much longer than ~equivalent activity performed by SpaceX, and obviously because SLS has many more pieces the whole process will take much longer.

To be fair, stacking SLS should also include the boosters... or at least that's how I see it. I know the boosters aren't stakes, so I'll understand if you disagree, but I would count them if were just trying to compare the difference between how long it takes to go from hardware on site to fhlly assembled. I'm sure that when you account for the stacking and booster attachment, it's muuuucb longer.

 

[bxr140]

To be fair, stacking SLS should also include the boosters... or at least that's how I see it.

Agreed! (Hence my "SLS has many more pieces" note)