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Supercharger growth

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In Europe filling stations are routinely built adjacent to the expressways, requiring little more than a lane change to pull in and gas up. If Supercharging stations are to be built with convenience i would suggest immediate to expressways, malls, restaurants, and hotels.
if fact I'm surprised Tesla hasn't been able to establish agreements with more malls, restaurants and hotels. Seems like the perfect premium service to able able to charge affluent customers.
 
There is a question for Europeans in this post.

In the US, as most familiar with Tesla are uncomfortably familiar, auto dealerships are independently owned. There is, in fact, a very awkward relationship between them and the manufacturers whose wares they represent. As such, regardless of any degree of success which Nissan has had with its dealers, any positioning of chargers at dealerships will bring the natural tensions between dealers and manufacturers to a higher, more uncomfortable level.
Is anyone able to speak authoritatively regarding the relationship in Europe (and the rest of the world - including Canada) between dealers and auto makers?

Irrespective of the above, I agree that in large-area nations like US, Canada, Australia and to some extent China, the earlier-mentioned importance of siting SpCs between urban centers is paramount - exactly the places where auto dealers aren't.

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In Europe filling stations are routinely built adjacent to the expressways, requiring little more than a lane change to pull in and gas up. If Supercharging stations are to be built with convenience i would suggest immediate to expressways, malls, restaurants, and hotels.
if fact I'm surprised Tesla hasn't been able to establish agreements with more malls, restaurants and hotels. Seems like the perfect premium service to able able to charge affluent customers.
By the way, just as a geo-historical curiosity more than for lots of practical value, this also had been the case throughout much of the earlier-constructed limited-access roads in the northeast US, like the NY Thruway, Connecticut Turnpike, Merritt Parkway, Mass. Pike, NJ Thruway, Penna. Turnpike and to a lesser extent down the eastern seaboard. Interesting that this pattern did not take hold in states further west.
 
Especially when Tesla gave away its patents for Supercharging.

More accurately, Elon Musk promised not to pursue litigation against any company that uses Tesla patents in "good faith."

That does not preclude Elon Musk from pursuing litigation against companies using supercharger patents not in good faith or future Tesla CEOs from pursuing litigation litigation against all companies infringing on Tesla patents.

Therefore, any attorney working for a legacy OEM will want an agreement in writing with Tesla before creating their own national or worldwide supercharger network.
 
I think one of the critical success factors for the charging network is that it "just works" - in Europe we have a ton of different charging stations from a whole host of providers. The big issue is that every provider requires a different token/smart-card/magnetic payment card/special key - and then of course there are different kinds of plugs. Of course, all that is good if you never charge in a different country but the beauty of gas stations is that they work everywhere the same. Now Superchargers work as well as gas station and better: they don't require a payment so you never run into "no connection to banking server", "sorry Sir, we only take cash but no 100s" etc. So even more important than being free is that it is without hassle.

So yes, the Supercharger network is to Tesla what iTunes is to Apple: another reason to buy the device.

Of course someone else could try to build something similar. But who would have the incentive to do so? All European (at least BMW, Mercedes) car makers vigorously point their fingers to the government when it comes to building charging infrastructure. And I don't see the others getting serious yet. I don't think Nissan has cross country driving in mind so I don't see them build a network either. And by the time others have a car that can go the distance, everyone who wants to go the distance will compare the coverage of Tesla vs. whoever else is there. I bet more often than not people will opt for the "better network" (just consider a second why Verizon is still the biggest cellphone provider in the US).

All this will - eventually - be less relevant in a decade or two when free charging posts will be as ubiquitous as WiFi today but until then a lot of Teslas will be sold.
 
What if there were a 150-200 mile EREV? Like a larger "super-Volt". Or make it a CUV. With a 1.5L extender (ie. no Frunk) on board or similar. This does solve long distance travel using the gas stations already out there. With some new high-density battery chemistry, something like that is possibly what the other auto makers want to end up doing. If the extender cost the same as the additional 100 miles of battery, then doing such a "big EREV" might be what comes out to convince consumers to make the switch. For the 2-3 very long trips someone wants to do per year, they don't need the inconvenience of planning a specific route or going out of their way for hours of charging on a 1000 mile trip. Just thinking like the average consumer family. Most of my trips are under 100 miles with a 3 times a year trip in the 700 mile round trip category and that route has no superchargers.

The counterpoint of that is that with something like a Volt, there is complex transmissions happening with the clutching between two electric motors and ICE generator. If it were entirely a series setup like the i3, perhaps that would be simpler to build. The idea of a load-in very high density air-metal battery with somewhat easy swapping of that is also a viable solution if that technology existed. Put the battery in the Frunk and luggage in the Brunk (boot, trunk).
 
All this will - eventually - be less relevant in a decade or two when free charging posts will be as ubiquitous as WiFi today but until then a lot of Teslas will be sold.

Why are you expecting free charging posts everywhere in a decade? Who do you think is going to build the network? Who will maintain it? Who pays for all the electricity?

Governments are building some free charging here and there - almost always level 2 AC charging from what I've seen. Otherwise, no one seems to have a practical business model for DCFC stations, except for Tesla's one time charge and "marketing cost."

Eventually the DCFC market outside Tesla may normalize on a cost and charging standard, but I'm having trouble believing that DCFC will inevitably become extremely common and ubiquitously free.
Walter
 
How many BMW dealers are there in the middle of Kansas or Nebraska?

The dealers are in the middle of the population centers, not where you need DCFC stations to be. And even if all of the dealers agreed to do it and set aside spaces and had suitable food/shopping resources nearby, it'd still be a whole lot of investment to make it happen (though it could potentially take less time to build, since they'd already have sites and have less trouble getting permits.)
Walter

Well, there are some 4,000-5,000 dealers each for Ford and GM in the US, Toyota has somewhere between 1,500 and 2,000. Lots of them 2.5 miles past the middle of nowhere. So while a BMW would have some gaps with their dealer-focused supercharger (DCFC) network, others wouldn't, nor would any two of them with a simple alliance. Lots of other negative factors (dealers vs. manufacturers), but real estate is probably pretty far down on the list of supercharger (DCFC) impediments for other manufacturers.
 
While CT has two Tesla supercharge stations in the rest areas along I95 (Darien & Milford) the rest area in Madison further North will have a DCFC which uses Chademo connection. Not sure who is paying for the electricity but it is not a specific auto manufacturer. While this would work for a Tesla if the Chademo adapter is ever released it does say that other DCFC infrastructure could be deployed outside of Tesla. Again, assuming we have an adapter I think we benefit.
 
What if there were a 150-200 mile EREV? Like a larger "super-Volt". [...] The counterpoint of that is that with something like a Volt, there is complex transmissions happening with the clutching between two electric motors and ICE generator. If it were entirely a series setup like the i3, perhaps that would be simpler to build. The idea of a load-in very high density air-metal battery with somewhat easy swapping of that is also a viable solution if that technology existed. Put the battery in the Frunk and luggage in the Brunk (boot, trunk).

I think that approach is too complex / expensive: the costs for BEVs come down too quickly for this approach to be long-term viable. If a Tesla is already viable today, I don't see that concept be viable for more than the next 3 years. And then? The Supercharger network is built-out even more and anyone considering a BEV is again going for a Tesla.

Why are you expecting free charging posts everywhere in a decade? Who do you think is going to build the network? Who will maintain it? Who pays for all the electricity?

I think that every place that offers free parking has incentives to offer free charging at some point. There is a cost to providing free parking and lots of places offer it anyways - and electricity is not that expensive. Granted, this process will take some time but I see that similar to WiFi: at first it was prohibitively expensive in terms of equipment costs so very few places had it. Then it became something that stores and cellphone providers made a business out of. Today, I don't sleep in a hotel that doesn't offer free Wifi and many coffee places offer it to attract customers. Since I expect at that time cars to "go as far as you ever wanted to go in a day" places of natural stops (i.e. restaurants, hotels, the Starbucks on the interstate) will all offer free charging.
 
While the model S is unquestionably a great car, it is the Supercharger network that makes it a potential replacement for any gas car, and the Supercharger network that constitutes the biggest competitive advantage Tesla has/the biggest barrier to a competitor rising to beat them.

I have no doubt that GM/Ford/Audi/etc could build a car that's close enough to the Model S to be real competition if they chose to. (Might not be able to make an equal or better car for the same money, but that's a side issue.)

However, unless Tesla lets them buy in to the Superchargers, it'd take years for them to get anything close to the same utility from the notional car, which means they couldn't sell it to most people anyway.
Walter

Anyway, back to the SC network ... Wow. Just wow. I'm so impressed at how fast they've expanded the network, despite the fact that it's actually been quite slow here in Canada. This is one hell of a competitive advantage. Just imagine where they will be the moment a competitor comes out with anything similar to the S / X / 3. They'll have effectively global coverage while competitors have nothing, which might be why they are all sticking to hybrids.

The thing is that Elon's strategy is to promote competition. He's already demonstrated that he won't use the network for competitive advantage.

He wants more competition to accelerate EV adoption. He also wants the Tesla charging specification to be the standard. If he is successful in producing hundreds of thousands of Teslas with 200+ range by 2017 the Tesla charging spec will become the de facto standard. The relaxation of enforcement of the Tesla patents supports this strategy by making it easier for the competition to adopt the Tesla spec.

Like others I am impressed with the progress of the Supercharger Network. This breakneck pace and capital burn again demonstrates Elon's commitment to make the Tesla's charging standard the dominant network particularly for EVs with meaningful range.

Imagine where the Supercharger Network will be in 2017. Sure, others could do what Tesla is doing and build their own networks, but with the Supercharger Network being the 800 pound gorilla in the room why would they do that? Especially since Elon wants them to adopt the Tesla spec and is willing to grant access to the network for a fee. I'll bet that fee won't be all that more expensive than what is is for 60 kWh Model Ss to enable Supercharging.

If Tesla is successful in buidling the Gigafactory and launcing the Model 3, by 2020 every EV manufacturer building EVs with more that 200 miles of range would be silly not to use the Tesla spec and pay the admission fee to the network. Then they will be competing head to head with Tesla strictly on the cars, not the network charging standard.

Larry
 
I think one of the critical success factors for the charging network is that it "just works" - in Europe we have a ton of different charging stations from a whole host of providers. The big issue is that every provider requires a different token/smart-card/magnetic payment card/special key - and then of course there are different kinds of plugs. Of course, all that is good if you never charge in a different country but the beauty of gas stations is that they work everywhere the same. Now Superchargers work as well as gas station and better: they don't require a payment so you never run into "no connection to banking server", "sorry Sir, we only take cash but no 100s" etc. So even more important than being free is that it is without hassle.

That's a very important part of this wonderful concept.

And as the Supercharger network is being built out further and further every next day/week/month/year and at an increasing pace too (both in total number of geographical locations as well as in total number of stalls per individual Supercharger station), it becomes more and more an important valuable part of the value propesition of the Tesla Model S (and also of all the other future Tesla EV models as well).

Just imagine a global total of more than 5,000 Supercharger stations in 2025.
 
Speaking as a construction electrician, I view the tremendous advantage of EVs as the ease with which charging stations can be installed. They are inexpensive and should be installed everywhere. You cannot accomplish that with Hydrogen fuel cell filling stations.

My thoughts exactly. It seems Toyota want to lean on government assistance via subsidy to build a FCV fueling network. This might work in more progressive locations such as CA and perhaps the NorthEast but I don't see it happening in "oil country", ie. the Midwest. At best, FCV is likely to be only regional. This is the genius of Elon Musk. To envisage a national network right from the start financed by early adopters such as ourselves.
 
I'm not sure how relevant this will be in ten years. If battery cost and density continues to improve then I can see many cars having 500mile ranges which can then be charged overnight at a lower charge rate. Probably a whole set of range options from 200 to 500 miles. People can choose what suits them best.
 
I'm not sure how relevant this will be in ten years. If battery cost and density continues to improve then I can see many cars having 500mile ranges which can then be charged overnight at a lower charge rate. Probably a whole set of range options from 200 to 500 miles. People can choose what suits them best.
Significant chunks of the population who own cars do not own parking spots. Superchargers make EV ownership reasonable for this segment.

Me, for example: I recently sold my house and moved into a condo without parking. If I hadn't already owned an EV, I seriously doubt I would buy one now, as charging it is a pain in the neck. The one garage in Portland with 24-hour access and charging is a 5 minute walk from my condo. And of course I don't want to leave my car parked in front of the EVSE all the time, so I've got two round-trips for every charging episode, adding up to ~20 minutes of my time to charge the car. And I pay an extra $30/month for parking there, relative to the cheaper garages closer to my house.
Once the Superchargers are installed in Portland, I will undoubtedly change my parking garage to a closer/cheaper one, and simply use free Supercharging for my needs.

If you think I'm atypical, spend some time in the urban cores of New York, Philly, Baltimore, Boston, Chicago, etc. There are a lot of people who live in row houses, small apartment buildings, and the like who park on the street. Many of these people take public transit (or walk) to work. With no convenient at-home or at-work charging option, how will EV manufacturers ever sell into this part of the population?
 
Sounds like BMW want to develop their own supercharging network. Not sure what this means. We'll need more details.

BMW plotting a Tesla Supercharger-like EV charging network

Perhaps this has something to do with why Tesla has been rolling out SC stations so quickly.

From what I understand BMW will offer 24 kWh DC "Fast" Chargers for $6500 and will encourage their dealers to install them and offer them to anyone who wants to buy them. They hope hotels,malls, etc install. It will charge i3's to 80% in 30 minutes.

More like Tesla's destination chargers. But at the end of the day these are slow and haphazard. They will not be installed in strategic locations nor will BMW be in charge of operations and maintenance.

Tesla's destination chargers are in addition to the Supercharger network.
 
My thoughts exactly. It seems Toyota want to lean on government assistance via subsidy to build a FCV fueling network. This might work in more progressive locations such as CA and perhaps the NorthEast but I don't see it happening in "oil country", ie. the Midwest. At best, FCV is likely to be only regional. This is the genius of Elon Musk. To envisage a national network right from the start financed by early adopters such as ourselves.

There's lots of natural gas in Oil Country too, which can be used to produce hydrogen.
 
Thanks Rob and Robert. 24 kW would be wholly inadequate for the EV future. Tesla's already at about 120 kW. I think the German government is looking to support charging in the 200 - 350 kW range. Perhaps this is just aspirational. I suspect some pretty substantial battery R&D would be required just to handle that rate of charging.
 
Thanks Rob and Robert. 24 kW would be wholly inadequate for the EV future. Tesla's already at about 120 kW. I think the German government is looking to support charging in the 200 - 350 kW range. Perhaps this is just aspirational. I suspect some pretty substantial battery R&D would be required just to handle that rate of charging.
The rate of charge is always relative to the size of the battery; that ratio is called "C". Assuming batteries evolve to the 100-150 kWh range, we'd only be looking at 2 to 2.5 C, which is well within many batteries' charging range. More importantly, in building to support these high rates of charge, Germany would be 'future-proofing' its investment (unlike BMW's pitiful 24 kW rate, which isn't even good by today's standards). Just because 300 kW is available doesn't mean that the full capacity always has to be used. Even at Superchargers, the Model S only draws 135 kW when the battery is at a very low SOC. It then quickly tapers the current.