Supercharger growth

[MartinAustin]

The public are already starting to realise what the relevant "factors" are with regard to electric cars. Charging speed in kW is one... kWh/mile is another.

They will quickly see that 24kW is puny (or at best, "mediocre" or "moderate speed") compared to Superchargers.

The less we use the term "Supercharger-like" the better, since these are obviously not supercharger-like, except for the fact that they're going to be all over the place. We should not lead anyone to conclude "oh, now BMW has Superchargers..."

BMW's move seems doomed to me, since it fragments the low-speed charging standards landscape even more.

 

[CHGolferJim]

Strange they would be priced at 8x the consumer price of a Tesla HPWC, and an even higher multiple of the price Tesla makes HPWC available to commercial destinations. Assume they would be BMW-specific.

 

[Saghost]

Strange they would be priced at 8x the consumer price of a Tesla HPWC, and an even higher multiple of the price Tesla makes HPWC available to commercial destinations. Assume they would be BMW-specific.

Not really. The HPWC is just an EVSE - an extension cord with relays to keep everyone safe that passes A/C power through to the car.

What BMW is offering is a DCFC module, although of somewhat limited output - the BMW box will convert the AC power to high voltage DC at the variable voltage needed to charge the battery.

Since the BMW module has a lot more electronics, it seems to me that the price difference is entirely reasonable and appropriate.

There's a philosophical question about whether it makes more sense to have one set of high power charger hardware on the car or a bunch of sets on the sites, but BMW isn't overcharging what they offer.

(And AFAIK it will charge any CCS car, which right now is the i3 and the Spark EV.)

Walter

 

[vgrinshpun]

Guys, BMW fast DC charger is 50kW, not 24kW. Even if one assumes no losses and tapering, 24kW is not enough to charge i3 18.8kWh battery to 80% in 30 mins. There is nothing earth shattering about their pricing, as they obviously gave price for the charger cabinet only, not counting Utility Supply. Tesla Price to compare would be for 5 of their standard 10kW on-board chargers, i.e. probably around $5K (Tesla cost).

http://www.bmw.com/com/en/newvehicles/i/i3/2013/showroom/technical_data.html

 

[jhm]

We may want to start emphasizing absolute charging rates over relative ones. So instead of saying "half charge in 20 minutes, " say, "40 kWh in 20 minutes. " The relative language let's BMW get away with saying "80% charge in 30 minutes," when all they are really offering is "15 kWh in 30."

People will be more willing to buy a higher capacity battery when they recognize that it offers faster charge rates. It's not just about range; it's also about power/acceleration and battery longevity.

 

[pz1975]

We may want to start emphasizing absolute charging rates over relative ones. So instead of saying "half charge in 20 minutes, " say, "40 kWh in 20 minutes. " The relative language let's BMW get away with saying "80% charge in 30 minutes," when all they are really offering is "15 kWh in 30."

People will be more willing to buy a higher capacity battery when they recognize that it offers faster charge rates. It's not just about range; it's also about power/acceleration and battery longevity.

Agree with this - most people reading the article will assume that the BMW charger is charging at the same rate as the Tesla SC since it is also around 80% in 30 minutes. Obviously it was written in this way on purpose to trick people. It's like saying the cost of gas to fuel my car is 50% of yours without mentioning that my fuel tank is half the size.

 

[SmartElectric]

Guys, BMW fast DC charger is 50kW, not 24kW.
http://www.bmw.com/com/en/newvehicles/i/i3/2013/showroom/technical_data.html

This is a misleading link.

The BMW i3 is capable of being rapidly charged at a power amount of 50kW, but the chargers being rolled out by BMW in their dealerships are in fact 24kW (not taking full advantage of the i3).

BMW i DC Fast Charger (for BMW Centers + Partners). | BMW i3

 

[vgrinshpun]

This is a misleading link.

The BMW i3 is capable of being rapidly charged at a power amount of 50kW, but the chargers being rolled out by BMW in their dealerships are in fact 24kW (not taking full advantage of the i3).

BMW i DC Fast Charger (for BMW Centers + Partners). | BMW i3

Agree with you on the notion of misleading links, just not so sure which one...:smile:

According to the i3 technical data I've linked in the original post the battery is 18.8kWh, so charging it to 80% will require at least 15kWh. BMW claims charging i3 to 80 percent in 20 to 30 minutes (in the link included in your post). The problem is that a 24kW charger will require about 38 minutes to produce 15kWh to bring i3 battery up to 80%. The BMW stated 20 min charge to 80% will require approximately 45kW charger, while the 30 min charge - 30kW charger. All of the above numbers assume 100% charging efficiency without any requirement to taper the charging rate...

I think that some of our resident Seeking Alpha authors should publish article titled "BMW statements show charging numbers that do not add up"

 

[jhm]

Agree with you on the notion of misleading links, just not so sure which one...:smile:

According to the i3 technical data I've linked in the original post the battery is 18.8kWh, so charging it to 80% will require at least 15kWh. BMW claims charging i3 to 80 percent in 20 to 30 minutes (in the link included in your post). The problem is that a 24kW charger will require about 38 minutes to produce 15kWh to bring i3 battery up to 80%. The BMW stated 20 min charge to 80% will require approximately 45kW charger, while the 30 min charge - 30kW charger. All of the above numbers assume 100% charging efficiency without any requirement to taper the charging rate...

I think that some of our resident Seeking Alpha authors should publish article titled "BMW statements show charging numbers that do not add up"

So input is limited to 24 kW but peak output is 50 kW. This makes me wonder if this device includes some storage perhaps about 10 kWh with output of 25 kW.

Actually I think Tesla needs to design something likes this, a battery buffered fast charger. They of course do this for Supercharging, but I'm thinking of other destination charging apps.

 

[vgrinshpun]

So input is limited to 24 kW but peak output is 50 kW. This makes me wonder if this device includes some storage perhaps about 10 kWh with output of 25 kW.

Actually I think Tesla needs to design something likes this, a battery buffered fast charger. They of course do this for Supercharging, but I'm thinking of other destination charging apps.

I really doubt that this BMW touted charger includes battery due to size of the box and its price. Also, keep in mind that the battery would have to be quite large in order to complement the charging rate to the tune 6 to 21kW, *AND* be large enough that it would not require several hours or re-charging after charging just one car. What happens when another car shows up 10 minutes later? It is just not a technically workable solution given the box that BMW presented.


Regarding the continuous/peak rating, given the data presented by BMW, 24kW continuous/50kW peak output is again not technically feasible. The input is rated at 480V, 3 phase, 32A. Even if we take maximum non-continuous current rating of 40A (rating of the feeding breaker) the total max input power would be 480*40*SQRT(3)=33.255kW, well short of 50kW.

http://www.bmwicharging.com/BMWiDCFastCharger

I personally think that BMW did have some negotiations going on with TM, but in their arrogance assumed that they bring so much clout to the table that TM will basically turn over for them. They might have learned very soon that EM is a pretty tough negotiator, and where probably really shoked when it become clear that they can't get agreement based on their initial assumptions. Based on the comments from this seemingly reputable firm, they are so enraged that they just lost control and blowing smoke to get back at TM.

Above is pure speculation on my part, so take it with a bag of salt. I just can't explain the bunch of garbage they put out recently re. their "game changing" charging technology...

 

[GenIIIBuyer]

@vgrinshpun, I agree with your speculation above. The BMW/Tesla negotiations became public when Elon tweeted about them a couple weeks ago. By the time Elon tweeted about the potential deal, I think he knew the deal would fall through. May as well generate some press around the potential partnership anyways, I remember seeing a short 10 second blurb on Tesla/BMW on CBS's Sunday evening news broadcast shortly after Elon tweeted about it.

 

[jhm]

Vgrinshpun, thanks for your explanation. I can't see how the BMW specs add up. If they are just blowing smoke, this could all just be vaporware. So let's see if BMW can actually demonstrate the ability to deliver 15 kWh of charge in 30 minutes. Is there any truth in German engineering? Even so, it's a really small feat.

 

[Chickenlittle]

Approaching 300 superchargers

At 295 now suspect 300 before end of year a sure bet. Price of stock may not reflect this achievement but I believe this shows quiet execution of master plan

 

[chickensevil]

At 295 now suspect 300 before end of year a sure bet. Price of stock may not reflect this achievement but I believe this shows quiet execution of master plan

I really wish we take the rate of growth. I know someone had the days because I have seen the chart but it would help with predicting how many chargers they should have on 3 months, 6, 9, 1 yr, etc.

 

[RobStark]

296

Add Verona Italy.

 

[Benz]

I really wish we take the rate of growth. I know someone had the days because I have seen the chart but it would help with predicting how many chargers they should have on 3 months, 6, 9, 1 yr, etc.

Well, since July 1st, 2014 (98 + 24 +3 = 125) we have seen that the total number of global live Supercharger stations have risen to 296 in less than six months time. That's an overall average of a tiny little more than 1 per day. So, you could say that if it continues at the current pace of 1 new live Supercharger station, than after every next month there will be about 30 more live Supercharger stations. At least 600 before 2016, and at least 1,000 before 2017. And about 5,000 in 2025?

 

[Benz]

296

Add Verona Italy.

297

Add Martigny, Switzerland

 

[chickensevil]

Well, since July 1st, 2014 (98 + 24 +3 = 125) we have seen that the total number of global live Supercharger stations have risen to 296 in less than six months time. That's an overall average of a tiny little more than 1 per day. So, you could say that if it continues at the current pace of 1 new live Supercharger station, than after every next month there will be about 30 more live Supercharger stations. At least 600 before 2016, and at least 1,000 before 2017. And about 5,000 in 2025?

Appreciate that, but I was hoping to try and sort the growth rate on the per day increase over time then using some kind of projection (even linear would be fine by me) to get a sense of when we might hopefully see it grow into 2 average per day... Then 3, etc. Because we used to be 1 per week, then one per every half week, if memory serves we jumped up to just shy of one per day rather quickly, and now it seems we have just went over that one per day level. So the growth rate increase is still happening.

Anyway, that was more what I was hoping to see if it could be figured out. Because then it might be 10 or even 20k by 2025 (not arguing we need that many or do we? But just stating it from a numbers point of view)

But I am hopeful to see 600 BEFORE the end of next year!

 

[Benz]

Appreciate that, but I was hoping to try and sort the growth rate on the per day increase over time then using some kind of projection (even linear would be fine by me) to get a sense of when we might hopefully see it grow into 2 average per day... Then 3, etc. Because we used to be 1 per week, then one per every half week, if memory serves we jumped up to just shy of one per day rather quickly, and now it seems we have just went over that one per day level. So the growth rate increase is still happening.

Anyway, that was more what I was hoping to see if it could be figured out. Because then it might be 10 or even 20k by 2025 (not arguing we need that many or do we? But just stating it from a numbers point of view)

But I am hopeful to see 600 BEFORE the end of next year!

Wow, nice thought.

To be honest, I think that a steady monthly average of about 40 new live Supercharger stations actually really is the maximum that we will be seeing during the next few years. Heck, that's almost 500 per year. And 5,000 in a decade.

Two new live Supercharger stations per day during the whole year means that there will be 730 new live Supercharger stations in one whole year. How many construction teams would you need to realise all the construction work of 730 new live Supercharger stations in one whole year?

 

[Benz]

Appreciate that, but I was hoping to try and sort the growth rate on the per day increase over time then using some kind of projection (even linear would be fine by me) to get a sense of when we might hopefully see it grow into 2 average per day... Then 3, etc. Because we used to be 1 per week, then one per every half week, if memory serves we jumped up to just shy of one per day rather quickly, and now it seems we have just went over that one per day level. So the growth rate increase is still happening.

Anyway, that was more what I was hoping to see if it could be figured out. Because then it might be 10 or even 20k by 2025 (not arguing we need that many or do we? But just stating it from a numbers point of view)

But I am hopeful to see 600 BEFORE the end of next year!

Have a look at my post no. 5860 in the main Tesla Supercharger network thread.

You will see the growth/expansion of the global Tesla Supercharger network, and also per continent and per quarter.

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Update including December 12th, 2014:

North America
2012: 0 + 0 + 2 + 7 = 9
2013: 0 + 2 + 11 + 28 = 41
2014: 32 + 16 + 19 + 24 = 91
Total: 9 + 41 + 91 = 141

Europe
2013: 0 + 0 + 6 + 8 = 14
2014: 0 + 10 + 46 + 43 = 99
Total: 14 + 99 = 113

Asia
2014: 0 + 3 + 16 + 24 = 43 (Including: 2 in Sydney, Australia)

Global total: 141 + 113 + 43 = 297

2014 total so far: 91 + 99 + 43 = 233

Q1 2014 total: 32 + 0 + 0 = 32
Q2 2014 total: 16 + 10 + 3 = 29
Q3 2014 total: 19 + 46 + 16 = 81
Q4 2014 so far: 24 + 43 + 24 = 91

First half of 2014: 32 + 29 = 61
Second half of 2014 (so far a total of 165 days): 81 + 91 = 172

Remaining days in second half of 2014: 19

172 new live Supercharger stations in 165 days (in second half of 2014), that's even more than 1 new live Supercharger station per day, that's extraordinary!!!
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Link: http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/show...network/page59?p=839563&viewfull=1#post839563