Supercharger growth

[Benz]

Oh, gosh, I did it once before, with the dots being formed the way they are now, it should be easier to distinguish separation on them this time around, but that is a VERY painful process. I will try to get them counted as I have time throughout the day.

Indeed, it's a VERY painful process, but somebody has got to do it.

The last time I did it, I copied the map to the paint programm, and then I drew some lines in order to get some sections. If you have say 8 sections, then they will be easier to count, as the surface area will be smaller per section then the whole of North America. Ones you will have counted the sections, then you can add all the numbers to get the grand total number of all Supercharger stations in North America at the end of 2016.

Maybe that will help to make it a little less painful process.

 

[chickensevil]

Indeed, it's a VERY painful process, but somebody has got to do it.

The last time I did it, I copied the map to the paint programm, and then I drew some lines in order to get some sections. If you have say 8 sections, then they will be easier to count, as the surface area will be smaller per section then the whole of North America. Ones you will have counted the sections, then you can add all the numbers to get the grand total number of all Supercharger stations in North America at the end of 2016.

Maybe that will help to make it a little less painful process.

HA! That was exactly what I did, with the new dots and the maps being at a much higher resolution it was actually much less painful to count. The only areas that are potentially a little shakey are CA and NY since there are some very dense dots there, outside of a dot potentially being fully covered I was able to easier count these.

Final number 418

I would put the accuracy of that number at +/- 5

If I can find my old post I would be able subtract the two numbers to get a net difference between the current end map and the old one. I do seem recall it was in the low 300s though.

- - - Updated - - -

Ok, So I tried really hard to take the Tesla maps (as pixelated and undefined as they are) to come up with how many new sites they have publicly announced as planned locations. I might be off a bit, especially when we are talking about Asia and some of the EU places where there are likely dots on top of dots that were really hard to count if not impossible for those Chinese mega-cities. Anyway, here are the numbers I came up with
137 - US
178 - EU
59 - Asia
Total: 374

So that all being said, if Tesla sticks with the roughly 1 site a day coming online then they should still be within the goal of hitting all of their stated goals for sites through 2015 (note the EU number is also counting 2016). So what I think we are likely to see is the density to start to go way up especially in the more heavily populated areas. But I guess, mostly, what I am getting at, is that the expansion path they have set forth seems like a very easy target to hit given their current average for the number of sites they are bringing online a day. I don't know that we will see the map fill out like they have projected, but I do think we will easily see 300+ new sites up through the end of 2015 which would put the total count up to around 600 by the end of next year.

Update including December 12th, 2014:

North America
2012: 0 + 0 + 2 + 7 = 9
2013: 0 + 2 + 11 + 28 = 41
2014: 32 + 16 + 19 + 24 = 91
Total: 9 + 41 + 91 = 141

So combining these two posts that should place the old number of chargers somewhere around 278 by the end of 2015. With over 100 slated to come online in 2015 and then another 100+ to come online in 2016. There will be very few places left uncovered properly by the time the first Model 3 gets sold so there should be no reason people will complain about "range anxiety" for that road trip they will probably never take.

 

[Robert.Boston]

For 2015, I get 294 in the US and 22 in Canada. (I'm including in that count +3 for the paired stations at Milford, Greenwich, and Hookset.)

I threw the map into Photoshop and added a brightly colored dot to each flag as I counted it; made it pretty easy with the high res.

 

[Benz]

HA! That was exactly what I did, with the new dots and the maps being at a much higher resolution it was actually much less painful to count. The only areas that are potentially a little shakey are CA and NY since there are some very dense dots there, outside of a dot potentially being fully covered I was able to easier count these.

Final number 418

I would put the accuracy of that number at +/- 5

If I can find my old post I would be able subtract the two numbers to get a net difference between the current end map and the old one. I do seem recall it was in the low 300s though.

Wow, 418 Supercharger stations in North America at the end of 2016, thanks mate.

Current count for North America is 152.

418 - 152 = 266 (approximately)

266 in the next 24 months, that makes an average of a little more than 11 new live Supercharger stations per month in North America (or a little more than 2.5 per week).

That's more than North America got in 2014. Let's see how that goes.

 

[chickensevil]

In case anyone wants to know, I counted up the Asia map as well, and the new totals appear to be:

57 China (including HK)
19 Japan
16 Austrailia

Total 92

I expect this will grow faster than stated by the end of 2016, especially for China and very likely for Austrailia. At best for Japan I see them doubling the density to close to 40, before the end of 2016, but wouldn't be surprised if it remains close to 19 since they have really good coverage for Japan already.

 

[Benz]

For 2015, I get 294 in the US and 22 in Canada. (I'm including in that count +3 for the paired stations at Milford, Greenwich, and Hookset.)

I threw the map into Photoshop and added a brightly colored dot to each flag as I counted it; made it pretty easy with the high res.

OK, great, thanks forcounting them.

Then we get these end of year totals:

2013: 50
2014: 152
2015: 316
2016: 418
2017: ?

 

[chickensevil]

For 2015, I get 294 in the US and 22 in Canada. (I'm including in that count +3 for the paired stations at Milford, Greenwich, and Hookset.)

I threw the map into Photoshop and added a brightly colored dot to each flag as I counted it; made it pretty easy with the high res.

Oh, well then that is an improvement by my old counts on 2015 as well then! Of course that old map was 100x harder to get a good number on the really tightly clustered dots.... grumble grumble. So much thanks to Tesla all around for the High Res maps (and of course to ScepticMatt for grabbing them before they were taken down!) The dots on top as you count was the ONLY way I could get a count on the old maps, along with segregating the maps into sections. I followed a similar method here, but yeah, it was just so much easier with the resolution.

One flaw for my number is missing those paired sites as I was just counting them as one dot (as tesla also seems to be showing them as well). But I did have that +/- 5 number in there so that counts right? haha! And we don't know with the new sites if they will end up doing any more locations like that, so that could also throw things off a bit. But I think overall these are good numbers to give an idea of where things are headed.

 

[scottf200]

Oh, gosh, I did it once before, with the dots being formed the way they are now, it should be easier to distinguish separation on them this time around, but that is a VERY painful process. I will try to get them counted as I have time throughout the day.

A gif would be useful for 2014-2015-2016. I was thinking of making one for NA. I just use tools on the crude tools on the net tho and would have to resize these.

 

[Robert.Boston]

2017: ?

There's still a lot of work to do in Canada; admittedly, SunCountry Highway has done a great job with 80A J1772's along the TransCanada Hwy + extensions, but I'm expecting Tesla to replicate that route -- hints are already there.

In the US past the 2016 plan, it looks to me that it will be an exercise in increasing density. Basic coverage is awfully good, with the marked exception of Alaska.

 

[Benz]

There's still a lot of work to do in Canada; admittedly, SunCountry Highway has done a great job with 80A J1772's along the TransCanada Hwy + extensions, but I'm expecting Tesla to replicate that route -- hints are already there.

In the US past the 2016 plan, it looks to me that it will be an exercise in increasing density. Basic coverage is awfully good, with the marked exception of Alaska.

Yes they could add at least about 60 more new live Supercharger stations in North America in 2017, I think (but probably more).

 

[chickensevil]

For those interested in the difference between Asia 2015 and 2016. It really is just Austrailia. The rest of the dots are totally the same. So I would expect this map to be updated again as we progress further into 2015. I am working through EU right now.

That difference is 10 Australia in 2015 and 16 in 2016.

 

[Benz]

For those interested in the difference between Asia 2015 and 2016. It really is just Austrailia. The rest of the dots are totally the same. So I would expect this map to be updated again as we progress further into 2015. I am working through EU right now.

That difference is 10 Australia in 2015 and 16 in 2016.

Yes, China will get many more obviously, but for some reason they can't place them on the map already. So indeed, I would also expect this map to be updated again as we progress further into 2015.

Don't forget Norway and Switzerland, they are non-EU countries, but they are part of Europe.

 

[andrewas]

Yes, China will get many more obviously, but for some reason they can't place them on the map already. So indeed, I would also expect this map to be updated again as we progress further into 2015.

Don't forget Norway and Switzerland, they are non-EU countries, but they are part of Europe.

Looking at China - there is already 55 supercharger sites there. There will obviously be many more added (than the now just 2 more). Many of the cities in China with superchargers are now island - Texas style as the distance to the next city with superchargers is too far. There is appox 4500 model S sold in China to date (estimates and numbers from EV Sales: China)

I wonder - did anyone also save the html file for each of the maps? If these were in the "find us" section there would be all sorts of data per location - like the position etc... Unless each "dot" was just roughly placed in the center of each city/town etc...

 

[chickensevil]

Ok, EU numbers:

2015: 231
2016: 284

- - - Updated - - -

To clarify when I say EU I am referring to the Continent as opposed to the alliance of nations. So it includes Norway and Switzerland

And it is just easier to say Asia to refer to Australia as well, even though Australia is clearly a difference continent. Is there a more proper term to refer to the West Pacific region of the world?

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Is there a more proper term to refer to the West Pacific region of the world?

I have seen "Australasia" more than once. I knew what it meant right away.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

New NA maps, amongst other things from new Tesla homepage.
...

OK, Maine...
2015: Portland, Augusta, Bangor
2016: Houlton (end of I95 near the Canadian border). That would open up the Maritimes.
EDIT: Actually, as someone else identified, the pointer is more like Woodstock, NB, the next city over the border. Although, it's 140 miles from Bangor to Woodstock and 119 miles from Bangor to Houlton. 140 miles is not winter friendly for <=60s.

Augusta, ME to Levis, QC is 213 miles.
Put a Supercharger in Jackman, ME and you have Augusta to Jackman 109 miles, Jackman to Levis 104 miles. Then the Model S-owning Quebecois from Eastern QC can get to Old Orchard Beach.

 

[jhm]

What impresses me is all the eastward expansion in Europe. Just looking at 2015, we see SCs going into:
Finland 6
Poland 5
Czech Republic 2
Slovakia 2
Hungary 1
Slovenia 2
Zagreb 2
Croatia 2
Bosnia and Herzegovina 1
Serbia 2
Bulgaria 2
Turkey 1

If that is not enough, they'll make Putin sweat in 2016 by going into:
Russia 5
Estonia 1
Latvia 2
Lithuania 1
Ukraine 2
Moldova 1
Romania 2
Macedonia 1
Greece

Also there is some westward expansion in 2015 into:
Ireland 3
Spain 13
Portugal 2

In all it looks like Tesla wants to expand not just charging infrastructure, but actual sales into all these countries. I expect to see a lot of new stores open up. I also wonder if we'll see definite plans for a factory in Europe this year. Very exciting expansion.

 

[chickensevil]

OK, Maine...
2015: Portland, Augusta, Bangor
2016: Houlton (end of I95 near the Canadian border). That would open up the Maritimes.
EDIT: Actually, as someone else identified, the pointer is more like Woodstock, NB, the next city over the border. Although, it's 140 miles from Bangor to Woodstock and 119 miles from Bangor to Houlton. 140 miles is not winter friendly for <=60s.

Augusta, ME to Levis, QC is 213 miles.
Put a Supercharger in Jackman, ME and you have Augusta to Jackman 109 miles, Jackman to Levis 104 miles. Then the Model S-owning Quebecois from Eastern QC can get to Old Orchard Beach.

Let's be fair to Tesla, that there is only so much they can do/add in one year. They are clearly trying to expand routes in a way that would encompass the most benefit to the most people. We have over 100 chargers coming to the US in both 2015 and 2016. I am certain that 2017 will be filling in whatever holes seem to be still there and upping the overall density of major cities. Using the 2016 map look at CA density, NY-DC density, and FL density which are some of their largest markets for the US. That should give you an idea of where Tesla actually wants to take charging to in the future. It is just going to take time. It took a ton of griping by us in VA to finally get some traction on the I-81 route, and while it is better, there are still going to be problems getting from WV to NC via I-77. And look at those giant holes in the center of the US. It will come with time.

I for one am excited to see just as an ambitious 2016 as we see projected for 2015!

 

[jhm]

OK, great, thanks forcounting them.

Then we get these end of year totals:

2013: 50
2014: 152
2015: 316
2016: 418
2017: ?

So it looks like the pace slows a bit in 2016, 102 vs 164 in 2015. However, these are only the plans that Tesla is comfortable with releasing as marketing material. As they get further into 2015, other locations may be added to the plans. Specifically I would expect more in the dense urban areas. These are not so essential for markting material at this point, but may become more crucial to unlocking specific urban neighborhood markets and in response to capacity needs. Also Tesla needs to open up the Trans-Canadian Highway and deeper into Canada. Long trip from Calgary to Winnipeg, eh. Thus, I would not at all be surprised if by the end of 2016 NA has more than 500 locations.

I still think it would be a good idea for Tesla to elicit consumer feedback on how to prioritize planned and unplanned future sites. There can be lots of oversights that are obvious to local prospective buyers but are not apparent to Tesla planners.

 

[TexasEV]

I still think it would be a good idea for Tesla to elicit consumer feedback on how to prioritize planned and unplanned future sites. There can be lots of oversights that are obvious to local prospective buyers but are not apparent to Tesla planners.

You would think so, but when we suggest locations we get a boilerplate reply about how they use "precise energy modeling" to determine locations.