Superchargers for Model 3

[CuriousG]

He is obviously on one end of the spectrum for S owners, but if you do the math you can see that it doesn't take too many to throw off the curve. He had to wait for CPO prices to drop to ~50k to make the math work out for his scenario. With the introduction of the 3, I think the appeal of a $35k car with no/low fueling costs would be considerable for livery (taxi/uber/lyft/etc) operators. Especially if the 8 year unlimited mileage battery/drivetrain warranty is still in place.

I don't expect to see an all-you-can-eat plan for the 3, but I'm prepared to be surprised =)

I'm willing to bet Tesla will put some type of stipulation for livery use. It's bad enough when local use is hoarding the SuperChargers, it will be 100x worse when the Model 3 is at full production. Will be interesting how they will address this.

 

[diamond.g]

Maybe by then there will be a bunch of chademo/DCFC stations to take advantage of the overflow of people.

 

[Red Sage]

Nor have they said, "Feel free to use your local Supercharger whenever you like." Not once. Ever.

God. Your emphasis here appears to be on 'local'. No, they didn't say that precise sentence. They did say you should feel free to use ANY Supercharger whenever you like. Multiple times over the past three-plus years. To me 'local' is an included subset of 'ANY'. Go back and look at interviews of Elon Musk relative to the Superchargers installed in and around London for reference. Geez.

 

[tinm]

I think there will be a new anxiety for the Model 3 era of Tesla: charging anxiety at home.

The more affordable Model 3 is going to appeal to a lot more people who live in apartments, condos, and townhomes -- in other words, multi-unit dwellings. That often share a garage if they even have one. And 99.99 times out of 100 there are no facilities for charging in those garages. People are usually nontechnical -- even I had never heard of NEMA 14-50s before buying a Tesla -- and I think they will be concerned about charging at home especially in urban multi-unit dwellings.

Tesla needs some sort of solution for this, and they need to not only figure it out but execute on it and for everyone who puts in a reservation for a 3, Tesla should follow up with them and find out who needs help on charging, and execute brilliantly over the next 18 months to make sure the local residential charging infrastructure is largely figured out before the cars ship. It won't be about Superchargers, imho, it's gonna be about FUD regarding local charging.

 

[bredi]

Tesla should buy up old gas station lots throughout cities that have been closed by mergers or regulatory reasons, and put in superchargers that are limited to 20 min. Enough to get home in a pinch, so one can charge up to full overnight.

...and install more destination chargers in parking garages, shopping malls etc. Like they do for hotels and Bed and Breakfasts.

This is a good problem. But how to fund this? I wouldn't be surprised if Model III has Supercharging as an option. Much like the s60's were. Model III pay to charge?

 

[KJD]

The more affordable Model 3 is going to appeal to a lot more people who live in apartments, condos, and townhomes -- in other words, multi-unit dwellings. That often share a garage if they even have one. And 99.99 times out of 100 there are no facilities for charging in those garages. People are usually nontechnical -- even I had never heard of NEMA 14-50s before buying a Tesla -- and I think they will be concerned about charging at home especially in urban multi-unit dwellings.

What really need to happen is we need to work with local city and county governments to make sure new construction is EV friendly. Denver has a good start on that. This article also talks about multi unit dwellings.

Denver's new building code requires garages to support electric vehicles

Although opposed by homebuilders, the electric vehicle readiness requirement says new single-family homes and duplexes built in the city will need to have the right electrical wiring to support electric vehicle plugs in their garages. At the least, the new homes must have conduits leading to the electrical panel.

 

[MiamiNole]

I think there will be a new anxiety for the Model 3 era of Tesla: charging anxiety at home.

The more affordable Model 3 is going to appeal to a lot more people who live in apartments, condos, and townhomes -- in other words, multi-unit dwellings. That often share a garage if they even have one. And 99.99 times out of 100 there are no facilities for charging in those garages. People are usually nontechnical -- even I had never heard of NEMA 14-50s before buying a Tesla -- and I think they will be concerned about charging at home especially in urban multi-unit dwellings.

Tesla needs some sort of solution for this, and they need to not only figure it out but execute on it and for everyone who puts in a reservation for a 3, Tesla should follow up with them and find out who needs help on charging, and execute brilliantly over the next 18 months to make sure the local residential charging infrastructure is largely figured out before the cars ship. It won't be about Superchargers, imho, it's gonna be about FUD regarding local charging.

I don't think information about charging will be that much of an issue. I don't think people would reserve an EV without having any clue on how to charge it at home. My first time walking into a Tesla Gallery, one of the first questions I asked was "how do I charge it"? People will ask if they can use a regular wall outlet, then ask how long it will take. Once they find that out, they will ask about other faster charging options and how to get them installed. And that's assuming they are intending on dropping money on a reservation without knowing ANYTHING about charging. Odds are most people that drop money on a reservation will already have considered charging options. I definitely don't think Tesla needs a brilliant execution plan for ensuring people who have already reserved and/or ordered a Model 3 have their charging solution in place. I think Tesla getting the information on charging infrastructure benefits people who aren't familiar with Tesla and EVs at <I>all</I>, and I think Tesla currently is doing a good job with that in their galleries and via their website.

 

[Kurt Foster]

It is nice to see a new permit has finally been issued in Cisco Texas for a Supercharger on I-20 West of Dallas/Fort Worth... Now, will the next one be in Midland, Big Spring, or Sweetwater?

There was something else I wanted to post, but I'm tired, it's late, and I haven't been able to find it yet...

YES!! I knew they would make model 3 owners able to use SUPER CHARGING!!
Thank you!

 

[Chuq]

and put in superchargers that are limited to 20 min.

But as soon as you introduce a limit or restriction on a supercharger, you reduce the usefulness of the network as a whole. If people are unsure as to whether they can use a certain site or if it will let them charge, you introduce uncertainty into the network. That was the situation before superchargers, when owners had to try to use a range of different charging locations, at various speeds, access times, availability, cost, etc. and they never knew if they were going to work or not.

 

[GKwey]

I have a funny theory, people. Tesla shall expand supercharging facilities in response to traffics; e.g. adding 2 superchargers not far away from the Hawthorne Supercharger and some have 6 stalls some has 12. Therefore, if you want more superchargers in your area, overwhelm the local superchargers around your home. Among five busiest superchargers number 1 & 2 are in China. No reason we can't be number one in using superchargers, as I believe we have more Tesla per capita here than there.

Mathematically, if you rely 100% on the free supercharging you already paid for, the saving on fuel cost shall pay for itself in 8 years (its warranty is 8 years unlimited mileage). Tesla owners drive a lot more than regular cars. If one drive 50,000 miles per year (not uncommom). That's 400,000 miles in 8 years. Using 20 miles per gallon range and $2 per gallon cost for gas, that's $40,000 fuel cost saved from a $35,000 M3.

I must say the saving on the fuel cost itself can pay for the car sounds too good to be true. Something is amiss here.

 

[Red Sage]

Tesla should buy up old gas station lots throughout cities that have been closed by mergers or regulatory reasons, and put in superchargers that are limited to 20 min. Enough to get home in a pinch, so one can charge up to full overnight.

The problem with buying them is that the real estate almost certainly will be rather expensive in major cities... Plus, if they are old, they almost certainly have EPA/OSHA issues with toxic chemical cleanup that will require significant expense to fix. Which is probably why no one else has built a gas station in the same place.

Better to buy land in the middle of nowhere, for Distance installations... And better to lease land in cities in areas that are already viably zoned for commercial operations.

...and install more destination chargers in parking garages, shopping malls etc. Like they do for hotels and Bed and Breakfasts.

That will happen.

This is a good problem. But how to fund this? I wouldn't be surprised if Model III has Supercharging as an option. Much like the s60's were. Model III pay to charge?

It will be funded by Model S and Model X sales, just like the rest of the Supercharger network. Don't worry about it.

 

[bredi]

Thank you for the thoughtful response.... with pictures too!

I agree with everything you said. The issues you outlined are real, no doubt. But.... there may also be stations that don't have the issues you describe. If there are opportunities to take over an existing infrastructure, then it should be pursued. 20 min chargers for pay, might be a solution to help fund the inevitable demand for more charging stations. I would not have issue "donating" to the cause with a quick juice-up.

I would love to see a future in which dinosaur blood is replaced with the sun.

 

[bredi]

and btw, those are great photos.

 

[Red Sage]

20 min chargers for pay, might be a solution to help fund the inevitable demand for more charging stations.

You are not the first to imagine a separate, pay-at-the-pump business model for Urban Superchargers. I fabricated this image to show what one might be like a couple of years ago. The problem though is that in the end, it really makes no sense. If you were to provide electricity at a rate that was reasonable, there would not be enough profit margin to cover the expense of administering the collection of funds. If you were to charge enough so that a certain quantity of users would properly support your operation costs, it would seem as if you were price gouging for the service. And, once you charge that amount, the expense of 'filling up' with electricity will be higher than buying gasoline on a per mile basis. Anyone with a calculator app on their mobile phone would be able to figure that out in seconds. So, no one would actually use your pay service at all. For it to work in the US in particular, gasoline would probably have to be in the $12.00 per gallon range, and everyone would have to drive a 12 MPG vehicle with a six gallon fuel tank before they noticed the actual inconvenience of gas guzzlers. Tesla Motors chose the right way to do it. FREE of additional fees for LIFE, the life of the car. Then it doesn't matter how 'cheap' gasoline becomes.

 

[bredi]

I see your point, and agree whole heartedly with Tesla's approach. I may have a post or two giving them such props.

It seems people are forgetting and becoming impatient with the model now. The model may or may not have hit a saturation wall. In which the model and progress is not meeting demand. A slow roll out may not work with he Model III.

It is quite amazing what has been accomplished in less than five years!

This weekend, my wife had a short trip in in her BMW i3 that required multiple charges. She couldn't get an open DC Fast charger! She came home frustrated and said "I'm over this" (charging). While she loves her i3 and us being an electric household, the realities and challenges of pioneering and navigating a very young infrastructure are real. Can Tesla continue the infrastructure plan mapped out AND look at other ways to increase the rollout and growth of ev charging? I hope yes.

Red, (Dragon?) You have clearly put time and effort into this, any other ideas you have come across that could work? Something Epic?

 

[sandpiper]

I see your point, and agree whole heartedly with Tesla's approach. I may have a post or two giving them such props.

It seems people are forgetting and becoming impatient with the model now. The model may or may not have hit a saturation wall. In which the model and progress is not meeting demand. A slow roll out may not work with he Model III.

Ultimately the charging stations will be owned by the electric utilities, and it will have to be a paid-for service that charges at rates comparable to what you would pay for power at your home. It should be attractive to them as long term way for them to grow their market, displacing fossil fuels.

The utilities should have an advantage in that they're involved whenever a new commercial development is installed, and they should be be able to put some demands on the commercial developers (perhaps aided by legislation) to allocate a certain amount of space for EV charging and switchgear.

Tesla has done an amazing thing... very ballsy and out of the box. But I cannot see how it is sustainable.

 

[MrBoylan]

Ultimately the charging stations will be owned by the electric utilities, and it will have to be a paid-for service that charges at rates comparable to what you would pay for power at your home. It should be attractive to them as long term way for them to grow their market, displacing fossil fuels.

This makes sense to me. But building the infrastructure for charging stations takes time and money, so there has to be a clear ROI for the utilities to recoup their investment. I think it's likely that there will be incentives and/or regulations in place at the state and federal level (or at the provincial level) to move things along. Like the legislation noted above for Denver. I don't know about Canada, but utilities here in the US (at least in the northeast) aren't well know for being forward-thinking, so I think it's going to take a push at the government level.

The utilities should have an advantage in that they're involved whenever a new commercial development is installed, and they should be be able to put some demands on the commercial developers (perhaps aided by legislation) to allocate a certain amount of space for EV charging and switchgear.

The utility wouldn't have the power to make those kinds of requirements, but local government would.

Tesla has done an amazing thing... very ballsy and out of the box. But I cannot see how it is sustainable.

It is sustainable if they continue to collect enough revenue from car sales to continue building out the SuperCharger network. It's a massive competitive advantage right now and will be more so as the Model 3 brings EVs to the masses. "Hey, do you want this Chevy Bolt or a Tesla Model 3? They have about the same range and they're about the same price. But one of them allows you to travel long distance. For free. Forever." Um... duh?

I've mentioned before that I believe there will be a flat up-front fee for SuperCharger access for the Model 3 (as there was with the 60 hWh battery Model S), but even *with* said option fee, the price should still be comparable to a Bolt. But the Bolt won't have access to the SuperCharger network.

 

[MrBoylan]

Mathematically, if you rely 100% on the free supercharging you already paid for, the saving on fuel cost shall pay for itself in 8 years (its warranty is 8 years unlimited mileage). Tesla owners drive a lot more than regular cars. If one drive 50,000 miles per year (not uncommom). That's 400,000 miles in 8 years. Using 20 miles per gallon range and $2 per gallon cost for gas, that's $40,000 fuel cost saved from a $35,000 M3.

I must say the saving on the fuel cost itself can pay for the car sounds too good to be true. Something is amiss here.

Musk (Tesla) has said on more than one occasion that superchargers are intended for long distance travel, not for frequent local use. In the most recent shareholders meeting in June of 2015, Musk said that users who continue to "aggressively" use local superchargers would receive an email reminder that “it’s cool to do this occasionally but it’s meant to be a long distance thing.” And true to his word a couple of months later, those Model S owners who were making frequent use of their local Superchargers did get e-mails from Tesla: "As as frequent user of local Superchargers, we ask that you decrease your local Supercharging and promptly move your Model S once charging is complete."

And you know what? For the most part, Tesla owners agreed with him. Plugshare did a survey of Model S owners shortly after these comments were made by Musk. 67% of the owners surveyed said that these statements about limiting local supercharger use were "not a reason for concern." And when drilling down on that, 51% of owners agreed that Superchargers should be for long-distance travel only, 45% agreed that those who used local superchargers frequently were "abusing the system" (an additional 16% were neutral on that statement), and 71% agreed that it was right for Tesla to "advise against" using Superchargers for local charging.

In additional questions, while only 30% of existing Tesla owners in July 2015 were concerned about Supercharger overcrowding at that moment, 80% were concerned about overcrowding in the future and a full 70% of existing Tesla owners surveyed (people who had already "paid" for "unlimited access to superchargers") said that limiting Supercharger access to long-distance travel would reduce overcrowding.

You can read more about the survey and its results here:

PlugShare News - Superchargers Restricted to Long Trips? Tesla Drivers Weigh In.

But in response to your comment about saving more than the cost of the car on fuel by charging on Tesla's dime for the life of the car, that is clearly not what the Supercharger network was designed for, and I expect this topic will be made much clearer before the first Model 3 hits the road.

 

[stopcrazypp]

In a previous comment, I noted that Tesla also had destination charging in the works for superchargers, such as that one garage mentioned in Atlanta. Who pays for those (installation and/or power)? Is it a joint venture with Tesla and whatever municipality the chargers will be located in? How does that currently work with Level 2 charging? Are most L2 chargers at destinations an amenity for customers/employees/etc.?

For destination L2 chargers, Tesla donates the chargers and pays for up to $1500 per charger for installation, but that is it (the location pays for electricity and maintenance).

For superchargers, Tesla typically pays for everything (including electricity and ongoing maintenance), although there are some exceptions where third parties choose to pay (I know there is one station where the location paid Tesla to install it).

So for L2 chargers there is no concern about there being any ongoing costs for Tesla. For superchargers, it will be a continual drain on Tesla to support them.

 

[stopcrazypp]

You are not the first to imagine a separate, pay-at-the-pump business model for Urban Superchargers. I fabricated this image to show what one might be like a couple of years ago. The problem though is that in the end, it really makes no sense. If you were to provide electricity at a rate that was reasonable, there would not be enough profit margin to cover the expense of administering the collection of funds. If you were to charge enough so that a certain quantity of users would properly support your operation costs, it would seem as if you were price gouging for the service. And, once you charge that amount, the expense of 'filling up' with electricity will be higher than buying gasoline on a per mile basis. Anyone with a calculator app on their mobile phone would be able to figure that out in seconds. So, no one would actually use your pay service at all. For it to work in the US in particular, gasoline would probably have to be in the $12.00 per gallon range, and everyone would have to drive a 12 MPG vehicle with a six gallon fuel tank before they noticed the actual inconvenience of gas guzzlers. Tesla Motors chose the right way to do it. FREE of additional fees for LIFE, the life of the car. Then it doesn't matter how 'cheap' gasoline becomes.

Ah, I see now why you keep saying pay per use is impossible to work out. You are assuming the network is completely independent of Tesla. Now imagine this however: the installation of the stations are paid for as an advertising/capex expense (as it is now for supercharger network), but electricity and maintenance costs are paid for with per use fees (with some subsidy from the same upfront cut on margin). The per use fees can be collected in the car (so no need to install credit card machines). From recent CCS specs, it seems they are looking to add similar functionality to that standard.

So basic comparison.

Current Tesla model:
Supercharger station installation - advertising/capex
Supercharger electricity/maintenance - $500 per vehicle (as of 2013/2014 SEC filings; Tesla didn't break it down for 2015)

Proposed model (with pay per use urban stations and long distance stations remaining free):
Supercharger station installation - advertising/capex
Supercharger electricity/maintenance - $500 per vehicle (as of 2013/2014 SEC filings) plus per use fees.

How is the proposed model less financially viable than the current model? The proposed model would also address the local congestion problem. If you are concerned there would be no one visiting the paid station, I think you just need to look at the actual inner city superchargers in Hong Kong and see that is not a concern at all (2 hour long waits and 10+ car queue):
Large Lunch Queues At Tesla's Most Utilized Supercharger Station, Hong Kong
Frequency of occupied Superchargers & "peak hours"

Note these people have absolutely no choice but to charge at superchargers for all charging (few people have dedicated parking where they can install a home charger).

As for transaction fees, it is just 1-3% and $0.10-$0.30 per transaction. Say you charge a 40kWh session, let's say you charge an equivalent of $0.10 per kWh which would be $4 and about $0.40 in transaction fees at the max. If a parking facility can make credit card payments work for parking in the $1-5 range, I don't see how that is so onerous. Note: this can be changed to equivalent per minute fee to address state restrictions on billing for kWh.