[SURVEY] Model 3 Delivery Window

[ELRev]

[SURVEY] Model 3 Delivery Window

It seems that lots of folks have been assigned similar delivery windows for a "First Production" Model 3. Excluding Tesla employees, it seems the first of us are estimated to receive our cars between October and December of this year. Surely not everyone in that window will receive their order in October, but likewise not everyone will have to wait until December.

What I'm hoping to learn is information that might give prospective buyers in each window a better sense of where exactly they fall. Hopefully this survey will shed some light on that. I'll share results once a good amount of data has been compiled.

Thanks in advance for contributing!

 

[KarenRei]

Your survey is weird.

1) Everyone outside the US is "other"? No further breakdown?
2) Your last timepoint for when people reserved is over a year ago?
3) Your delivery dates overlap
4) Your last delivery date entry is literally a year from when Tesla says I'll get mine.

 

[Vern Padgett]

Your survey is weird.

1) Everyone outside the US is "other"? No further breakdown?
2) Your last timepoint for when people reserved is over a year ago?
3) Your delivery dates overlap
4) Your last delivery date entry is literally a year from when Tesla says I'll get mine.

It is so hard to design the perfect survey-- Who was it that said that poor data are better than none?

Let's give EL Rev a chance to explain his data and tell us what they mean.

 

[ELRev]

Your survey is weird.

1) Everyone outside the US is "other"? No further breakdown? - We know very little about the timetable for non-US deliveries, and they're likely to change if the ramp up does or does not go as planned. I felt that starting on the front end would be the most productive in terms of tangible results.
2) Your last timepoint for when people reserved is over a year ago? - More than half of the total current number of reservations had been placed within 2 days of the reveal event. Again, it's impossible at this point to predict too far into the future, so I'm trying to take broad strokes.
3) Your delivery dates overlap - The dates overlap because they're written as 3-month windows on My Tesla, not as a single month/date. The start month is the most significant detail, but I wrote the windows as they were given to us.
4) Your last delivery date entry is literally a year from when Tesla says I'll get mine. - From this and the above, I'm guessing you live outside the US, where first deliveries will be taking place. Unfortunately, I don't think we have enough information at the moment to provide accurate details on what to expect abroad, but hopefully a rough timeline for First Production cars in the US will give you some outline to go off of!

Thanks for your comments. I hope I've addressed some of your concerns above. Not a perfect system, but it may still yield worthwhile results!

 

[Vern Padgett]

Great. Any preliminary data analyses?

 

[Fiver]

I wasn't an owner at the time of my reservation, but I am now. You should change the wording of that question.

 

[KarenRei]

Thanks for your comments. I hope I've addressed some of your concerns above. Not a perfect system, but it may still yield worthwhile results!

You didn't.

We know very little about the timetable for non-US deliveries

Yes, we do. Tesla gives us estimates just like they do for people in the US. Mine is "Early 2019". You may decide that you don't trust them, but that's your personal call biasing your survey.

and they're likely to change if the ramp up does or does not go as planned

And the factory could collapse tomorrow and throw off US deliveries as well. The point of a survey is not to act as amateur prophet, it's to collect data and not discard data that you don't personally like. At the very least you should be waiting until after you've collected data to decide what you want to discard.

More than half of the total current number of reservations had been placed within 2 days of the reveal event

And 60k cancelled, and a new wave of reservations started after the first delivery. Again: stop making excuses and just collect all data. There's no reason to not give any options at all for the past year.

4) Your last delivery date entry is literally a year from when Tesla says I'll get mine. - From this and the above, I'm guessing you live outside the US, where first deliveries will be taking place. Unfortunately, I don't think we have enough information at the moment to provide accurate details on what to expect abroad

We have the exact same sort of information for overseas deliveries as for US deliveries.

This is stupid.

 

[AustinPowers]

Perhaps the survey should be retitled "Model 3 - US delivery window" as it's currently no use for non-US users.

 

[KarenRei]

Perhaps the survey should be retitled "Model 3 - US delivery window" as it's currently no use for non-US users.

"Early-reserver US delivery window" at that.

 

[ELRev]

This is stupid.

Rudeness won't get you anywhere in life. I'm sorry you disagree with my methods and feel left out. I never claimed they were perfect. Feel free not to participate.

 

[ELRev]

Some preliminary analysis below. Some of it is known or obvious. Some I found quite interesting.


Regardless of order date, all Tesla owners have been given a delivery window of October – December 2017.

With one exception, every single non-Tesla owner/employee who placed their order in-store on reveal day (3/31/16) and lives in the US has been given a delivery window of November 2017 – January 2018.

With one exception, every single non-Tesla owner/employee who placed their order online on reveal day (3/31/16) and lives in the US has been given a delivery window of December 2017 – February 2018.

With two exceptions, all non-Tesla owner/employee that ordered on April 1, 2016 and live in the US have been given a delivery window of January – March 2018. The two exceptions have later delivery windows and are not on the West Coast.

Regardless of order date, any reservation holders who live outside the US have been given a delivery window of after March 2018.

It would require a much finer-tooth comb to discern where within the above windows any individual sits. However, given the apparent breakdown between reveal day line-waiters and those who ordered online, it’s reasonable to estimate your delivery date within your given window based on your own evaluation of the time at which you placed your order on reveal day and the location in which you live.

For example, if you placed your order at 10:15 AM in store on the West Coast of the US on reveal day, it’s reasonable to expect that you’ll see delivery on the front end of that November – January window. If you ordered online the night of the reveal event and live on the East Coast of the US, you may be looking at closer to February/March 2018.

The two-month overlap of these three-month delivery windows are the x-factor in this analysis and will be hugely impacted by how smoothly the ramp-up goes. For those outside the US, your delivery date will be heavily influenced by how quickly within each window orders are filled and if the overlap periods result in orders being pushed back to the latter half of their delivery windows.

If you haven't yet contributed, please do! Thanks to all who have,

 

[SageBrush]

If all the early deliveries are the same interval, what additional granularity can you hope to draw ?

 

[eSpiritIV]

Seems based on your analysis and the survey that the breakdown was this.
1 month extra time for the windo for each of the following
Employee
Non Tesla Owner
April 31st line waiter
April 31st online order

Makes sense, but doesnt mean that somebody on east coast will get it later than somebody on the west coast who ordered slightly later. Thats why its a 3 month window.

 

[gregincal]

If all the early deliveries are the same interval, what additional granularity can you hope to draw ?

That's my question. All owners have Oct-Dec, and all first day non-owners have Nov-Jan. That tells us exactly nothing about when in the window you might get it.

Would an owner that reserved recently get the car in Dec, and a first day non-owner in Nov?
Would a California owner who reserved the third day get their car before a first day east-coast owner?
What about an early morning east coast non-owner line waiter versus an evening online California non-owner reservation?

Exactly because people have been lumped into huge buckets means we still don't know the order they will invite people to configure or when in the window they might get their cars, and I don't think additional data is going to answer any of these questions.

 

[S3XY]

I think it's pretty safe to assume that Californians will be near the front of each range, then West coast, central, and East coast will be near the end. The different ranges overlap so the west to east reservers will be interspersed across the ranges. So that east and west coaster's from different ranges might get their cars around the same time.

 

[Barklikeadog]

I think it's pretty safe to assume that Californians will be near the front of each range, then West coast, central, and East coast will be near the end. The different ranges overlap so the west to east reservers will be interspersed across the ranges. So that east and west coaster's from different ranges might get their cars around the same time.

Are the cars currently coming out only to employees? I saw a model 3 yesterday in Pennsylvania.

 

[S3XY]

Are the cars currently coming out only to employees? I saw a model 3 yesterday in Pennsylvania.

Yes, the thousands of employees that reserved will get theirs first and they are nowhere near that number of production cars built yet. You may have seen a RC Model 3 being tested or have mistaken a Model X for one. Proportionately they look similar from a distance.

 

[ChadFeldheimer]

Regardless of order date, all Tesla owners have been given a delivery window of October – December 2017.

I reserved online on 3/31. I was an owner and still am today (same car). My delivery window is December 2017 - February 2018. Doesn't bother me as I won't be ready for the 3 until at least summer 2018, but I find it a bit curious. I'm in Illinois - perhaps that was the difference maker.

 

[K-MTG]

I am surprised the design studio still didn't open

 

[gregincal]

I am surprised the design studio still didn't open

I'm not. They aren't starting non-employee deliveries until the end of October. If they are still on that schedule I'd expect the first people to be invited to configure sometime in September.