Tax Credit and Model Y delivery

[acarney]

I have up to 3o days to take delivery or Tesla may cancel my order and keep the deposit fee. I have quoted it below:

Delivery; Transfer of Title. If you are picking up your Vehicle in a state where we are licensed to sell the Vehicle, we will notify you of when we expect your Vehicle to be ready for delivery at your local Tesla Delivery Center, or other location as we may agree to. You agree to schedule and take delivery of your Vehicle within three (3) days of this date. If you do not respond to our notification or are unable to take delivery within the specified period, your Vehicle may be made available for sale to other customers. For new vehicles, if you do not take delivery within thirty (30) days of our first attempt to notify you, Tesla may cancel your order and keep your Order Fee.

Given that, I should be ok. I mean you never know but given the backlog of orders, I don't see an ealier date then January. Of course, now that I have said that I'll be the first one to get my order filled...

You really think that backlog is going to hold up? I suspect at least 50% if not more of those orders will disappear between now and January. There is NO reason to take a delivery now if you can get $7,500 come January. I think we're already seeing it with the Performance. I had to wait 18 days from order to matching with a VIN even though I was estimated for mid Sep to mid Oct. A bunch of other people also suddenly started matching. Someone claims they ordered and matched the next day. I fully suspect we will see inventory vehicles before the end of the year.

The only reasons I could see that you take delivery is if you NEED a car (car is totaled and you need to replace), you don't qualify for the credit anyway based on income or sales price (basically S/X or LR/Performance Model 3), or you have a high value trade (a car that's 1 to 2 years old and value can move quick). If you're trading in an older car that might only decrease a thousand or two it's still worth your time waiting. But if you have a fairly new car, or a one or two year old Tesla where value might drop $5k or more in four or five months (especially since we're in a weird used car market right now) you'll probably jump for it now.

Unfortunately for Tesla, I think things are going to grind to a halt. The only saving grace might be switching to filling fleet orders.

I'm honestly kind of surprised we haven't seen some chatter out of Elon on Twitter trying to scare people into taking delivery "Prices looking like they're going to go up a few thousand more before the end of the year!" or something like that. Or a policy of "Unfortunately we've had to change policy that if you order and cancel you can't re-order for six months, sorry, logistics are crazy right now!"

I was seriously considering delaying delivery until January, even if I have to cancel my order and spend another $250 in January. BUT, I was quoted $70,200 for my 2020 Long Range Model Y (Blue/White FSD Boost ~10k miles). I'm getting almost $7,000 MORE than I paid for this car AND I've driven it for 21 months! If the used car market falls apart between now and January because of the economy, or more people buying new cars because of tax credits, or more people trading in Tesla's to jump on a new Tesla credit... I could easily see $5k or more falling off my trade between now and Jan 1st. Add that with maybe a 1% or more interest rate change, and that tax credit would be washed away.

 

[voip-ninja]

More likely is a wave of cancellations when there is limited information about what the impact of a renewed tax credit is, followed by people re-ordering when they realize they either don't qualify for the tax credit or that Tesla vehicles don't fully qualify for the subsidy.

 

[HellsKitchen]

I'm taking delivery on Friday and was starting to regret not waiting for the tax credit, but my order price from January is much lower, so it's kind of a wash.

 

[Bluelocust]

You really think that backlog is going to hold up? I suspect at least 50% if not more of those orders will disappear between now and January. There is NO reason to take a delivery now if you can get $7,500 come January. I think we're already seeing it with the Performance. I had to wait 18 days from order to matching with a VIN even though I was estimated for mid Sep to mid Oct. A bunch of other people also suddenly started matching. Someone claims they ordered and matched the next day. I fully suspect we will see inventory vehicles before the end of the year.

The only reasons I could see that you take delivery is if you NEED a car (car is totaled and you need to replace), you don't qualify for the credit anyway based on income or sales price (basically S/X or LR/Performance Model 3), or you have a high value trade (a car that's 1 to 2 years old and value can move quick). If you're trading in an older car that might only decrease a thousand or two it's still worth your time waiting. But if you have a fairly new car, or a one or two year old Tesla where value might drop $5k or more in four or five months (especially since we're in a weird used car market right now) you'll probably jump for it now.

Unfortunately for Tesla, I think things are going to grind to a halt. The only saving grace might be switching to filling fleet orders.

I'm honestly kind of surprised we haven't seen some chatter out of Elon on Twitter trying to scare people into taking delivery "Prices looking like they're going to go up a few thousand more before the end of the year!" or something like that. Or a policy of "Unfortunately we've had to change policy that if you order and cancel you can't re-order for six months, sorry, logistics are crazy right now!"

I was seriously considering delaying delivery until January, even if I have to cancel my order and spend another $250 in January. BUT, I was quoted $70,200 for my 2020 Long Range Model Y (Blue/White FSD Boost ~10k miles). I'm getting almost $7,000 MORE than I paid for this car AND I've driven it for 21 months! If the used car market falls apart between now and January because of the economy, or more people buying new cars because of tax credits, or more people trading in Tesla's to jump on a new Tesla credit... I could easily see $5k or more falling off my trade between now and Jan 1st. Add that with maybe a 1% or more interest rate change, and that tax credit would be washed away.

I can't disagree.

 

[Bluelocust]

My dilemma is I would like to purchase a Tesla because I believe they manufacture the best electric vehicle (especially their software). I am not “gaming” the system – I am just following their ordering procedure. I look at the EDD on the screen and it says Jan-Apr 2023 for a possible delivery date. I realize that the date may be earlier or later depending on Tesla’s ability to produce the desired model. That happens to work for me. Do I wait until after January to order? Maybe. But I choose to order now and see what happens. If necessary, I will use the 30 days they allow. Personally, I would like to have a M3 but the wife feels differently – and has a number of reasonable points to justify her position (game over). But with the rebate, we can afford the MY. Without it, we will probably purchase the M3 – which by the way still cost $4,000 less than our configured MY with the credit.

I do appreciate everyone’s thoughts and opinions!

 

[Unclepaul]

If US deliveries slow up, due to people waiting for Tax Credit, I imagine that Tesla will simply begin sending local production overseas, Canada and Mexico. World Wide Demand is still greater than production.

 

[HellsKitchen]

My dilemma is I would like to purchase a Tesla because I believe they manufacture the best electric vehicle (especially their software). I am not “gaming” the system – I am just following their ordering procedure. I look at the EDD on the screen and it says Jan-Apr 2023 for a possible delivery date. I realize that the date may be earlier or later depending on Tesla’s ability to produce the desired model. That happens to work for me. Do I wait until after January to order? Maybe. But I choose to order now and see what happens. If necessary, I will use the 30 days they allow. Personally, I would like to have a M3 but the wife feels differently – and has a number of reasonable points to justify her position (game over). But with the rebate, we can afford the MY. Without it, we will probably purchase the M3 – which by the way still cost $4,000 less than our configured MY with the credit.

I do appreciate everyone’s thoughts and opinions!

I wouldn't count on that 30 days. I had to re arrange a work trip to take delivery next week because they wouldn't budge more that a few days.

The reason I was given by the rep is that you can't go past the original estimated delivery range.

 

[HellsKitchen]

If US deliveries slow up, due to people waiting for Tax Credit, I imagine that Tesla will simply begin sending local production overseas, Canada and Mexico. World Wide Demand is still greater than production.

The reason why Tesla has manufacturing overseas is so they don't blow all that money transporting cars. IT's expensive.

 

[dinomagic]

I recall reading that to qualify for the tax credit income should be less than 150k for single filers

 

[HellsKitchen]

I recall reading that to qualify for the tax credit income should be less than 150k for single filers

I read that, too (hoping to read somewhere that the law will be effective next week...lol).

 

[dinomagic]

According to this site… Teslas don’t qualify for the credit? Here's every electric vehicle that currently qualifies for the US federal tax credit

 

[Yelobird]

I wouldn't count on that 30 days. I had to re arrange a work trip to take delivery next week because they wouldn't budge more that a few days.

The reason I was given by the rep is that you can't go past the original estimated delivery range.

His original date is Jan-April. He will be fine.

 

[dinomagic]

According to this site… Teslas don’t qualify for the credit? Here's every electric vehicle that currently qualifies for the US federal tax credit

Also this sore from Tesla Electric Vehicle & Solar Incentives

 

[ucmndd]

According to this site… Teslas don’t qualify for the credit? Here's every electric vehicle that currently qualifies for the US federal tax credit

That site is discussing the currently available EV tax credit, not the new proposed one for 2023.

Tesla has been over the 200k unit cap for the current credit for a very long time.

 

[bayareaever]

Well I just placed my order tonight and it says EDD of January-April. Assuming it qualifies for the credit, I won’t be accepting delivery before then, and I have it in writing from sales rep that I won’t have to.

The only problem is total price is ~$82k. If that disqualifies it, I’ll have to remove fsd and then buy later. Hopefully govt won’t care about options but nobody knows at this point. If fsd costs more by then, I guess I’d have to eat the difference but it definitely won’t be $7500 more.

 

[Unclepaul]

According to this site… Teslas don’t qualify for the credit? Here's every electric vehicle that currently qualifies for the US federal tax credit

Just picked up my refreshed Model X. New pricing showed they listed the base price as $69,000 plus additional $20,000 for long range option. Believe this would qualify. Need for the bill to be passed and signed into law before anyone will know for sure which cars and which incomes will be included.

 

[acarney]

and I have it in writing from sales rep that I won’t have to.

Cute

 

[bayareaever]

Cute

Yes, I know not actually a guarantee but better than nothing. It would seem beyond disingenuous to keep an order fee and cancel an order in this scenario but I guess it’s possible.

Nobody here knows, but they might have more than enough demand from Canadians, people with too high income to qualify, and for other non-tax credit qualifying models for this to be a non-issue.

 

[pepperoni]

Well I just placed my order tonight and it says EDD of January-April. Assuming it qualifies for the credit, I won’t be accepting delivery before then, and I have it in writing from sales rep that I won’t have to.

The only problem is total price is ~$82k. If that disqualifies it, I’ll have to remove fsd and then buy later. Hopefully govt won’t care about options but nobody knows at this point. If fsd costs more by then, I guess I’d have to eat the difference but it definitely won’t be $7500 more.

That assurance in writing won’t mean anything if Tesla decides it wants to deliver a car to you during its December EOQ push. And given that you’re in the Bay Area, that’s a very likely scenario, since Tesla likes to deliver cars locally during EOQ months. You can find plenty of evidence of this on TMC from last December when people were trying to delay their order until January to qualify for the mythical BBB tax credit. Tesla threatened to cancel any order on hold that was older than 90 days, and did cancel many orders. You could easily find yourself at the front of the line.

 

[michaelb11]

That assurance in writing won’t mean anything if Tesla decides it wants to deliver a car to you during its December EOQ push. And given that you’re in the Bay Area, that’s a very likely scenario, since Tesla likes to deliver cars locally during EOQ months. You can find plenty of evidence of this on TMC from last December when people were trying to delay their order until January to qualify for the mythical BBB tax credit. Tesla threatened to cancel any order on hold that was older than 90 days, and did cancel many orders. You could easily find yourself at the front of the line.

There is an income limit of 150K for singles and 300K filing joint, of course, that is after deductions.