Indeed. This is not about 2016. Elon doubled down on autonomous ride sharing on Teslas sold today just days ago.
How does one reconcile that and not believing in at least Level 4 capability... one can’t. Do you believe
@diplomat33 Teslas of today will reach Level 4?
The fact that Elon did double down on autonomous ride sharing again would suggest to me that he does believe it in his mind. Presumably, the progress with AP3 has made him confident enough that it is going to happen. Whether he is right or not, is a different matter.
There are several possibilities:
1) AP3 progress is lackluster and Musk is outright lying to help the company.
2) AP3 + the new NN really are amazing. Maybe he witnessed a demo with AP3 where the car really did do L4 autonomous driving on a particular route?
3) AP3 is good but maybe not THAT good but Musk is extrapolating that ride sharing is still possible if they just keep at it and push harder. Maybe it's an important goal that he has for the company so he is pushing hard to try to make it happen even though it is not really realistic. Musk does come across to me as someone who believes his own goals and believes in pushing the limits.
Personally, I go with #3 as the most likely. I can't say #1 because I don't know that he is outright lying. That implies motivations that I am not privy to. #2 seems very unlikely based on what we know. So #3 is left by process of elimination and #3 is the most realistic of the 3 options IMO.
To answer your question, I think AP3 will probably do L3 autonomy. I think L4 is a huge stretch on the current hardware. Although the increased processing power of AP3 should help somewhat. Ideally, I would love to see Tesla's get a rear radar, 360 degree LIDAR and a better computer than AP3. That would complement the existing cameras nicely. If Tesla's got that added to the existing hardware, I would be a lot more confident in L4.
If I had to guess, I would say that Tesla will probably get some cool L3 features with AP3 but they won't make it to L4. Musk will stubbornly try to make it happen for a couple more years until he eventually caves and goes the full suite like I mentioned above (cameras, radar and LIDAR and more processing power).
Frankly, we just need to wait for April 22. We should get some answers one way or the other.
Great, then you agree that Elon is a big fat liar head, right? A fraud who lied and continues to lie to this day in order to sell cars? Because he is still out there talking about our cars turning into robo-taxis and generating revenue for us.
Somehow I suspect you are not going to agree with that statement... but you have to reconcile his statements with reality somehow.
No because I don't like throwing around such serious accusations like calling someone a fraud and a liar, especially when I have never met Elon Musk. Furthermore, being a fraudulent liar implies malevolent and criminal intent which goes well beyond just the fact that the statements are wrong. I am just not going to go there. I can judge if his statements are factual or not, yes, but I don't have the right or the ability to make a judgment about the secret motives or intent in his mind.
I reconcile his statements with reality this way: He can be wrong without being a fraud or a liar. Maybe he really does believe that he is right and can't see the other side of the argument? Maybe he is in denial about the hardware not being good enough so he is pushing hard to make FSD happen on the current hardware? Those would be my guesses.
Frankly, I don't really care if Musk's promises of L5 robo-taxis are completely off. I love my Model 3 and I love Musk's vision of the future (electric cars, renewable energy, space exploration). It's the future I want. And the legacy auto makers all suck! They have no interest in that future. So I am willing to support Tesla despite their mistakes because I support the direction that they are moving in.
