Tesla autopilot HW3

[Joel]

Based on what we know so far, HW3 is deployed in all Model3s from Jan 9th, 2019. But we'll see if the earnings call today will confirm it or not.

Thanks for the update. Is your information based on Erik Strait's software findings or additional information:

 

[chillaban]

I highly doubt this. HW3 (which presumably is a significant cost increase over HW2) would be a completely wasted expense on cars without pre-purchased FSD, which is the vast majority of them. Where are you getting this info?

I highly doubt it’s a cost increase compared to buying both GPU and SoC material from NVIDIA, who command highly premium prices for their parts.

I would expect the production cutover to be 100%. They surely won’t retrofit HW2.x EAP users to save costs but there is zero good reason for Tesla to continue sourcing APE hardware from NVIDIA now that they are in a deal with a competitor silicon supplier combined with bringing NN acceleration hardware in house.

 

[Kant.Ing]

Is HW3 radar only upgrade??

 

[MorrisonHiker]

Is HW3 radar only upgrade??

No. Lots of answers here: Tesla autopilot HW3

 

[PhaseWhite]

I highly doubt this. HW3 (which presumably is a significant cost increase over HW2) would be a completely wasted expense on cars without pre-purchased FSD, which is the vast majority of them. Where are you getting this info?

It was stated on a prior conference call (Q2 2018 perhaps?) that HW3 and HW2.5 are equivalent in cost. It might even get cheaper eventually (in volume) as Tesla will be vertically integrating the chipset vs buying GPU hardware from Nivdia.

 

[BigD0g]

I highly doubt this. HW3 (which presumably is a significant cost increase over HW2) would be a completely wasted expense on cars without pre-purchased FSD, which is the vast majority of them. Where are you getting this info?

The wiring schematics for the M3 that was released on the Part's / Manual Tesla's website.

 

[TradingInvest]

I highly doubt this. HW3 (which presumably is a significant cost increase over HW2) would be a completely wasted expense on cars without pre-purchased FSD, which is the vast majority of them. Where are you getting this info?

HW2 uses Nvidia's chip (which is Nvidia's cost + Nvidia's margin); HW3 uses Tesla's own AI chip which is just the cost. The overall cost should be the same as they mentioned in the past.

Also these cars will likely to be activated down the road for FSD, the long term financial benefit is significant compared with HW2.

 

[ReflexFunds]

I highly doubt this. HW3 (which presumably is a significant cost increase over HW2) would be a completely wasted expense on cars without pre-purchased FSD, which is the vast majority of them. Where are you getting this info?

I wouldn't doubt verygreen.
Elon has said HW3 is the same cost as HW2. It helps when you have a tailor made solution and can cut out your supplier's 50% margin. The manufacturing scale advantages of manufacturing 400-500k per year vs 30-100k are also very significant.

The potential for customers to later upgrade to FSD more than justifies the initial cost of 100% rollout. The new chip should also improve EAP reliability and improve the free safety features.

 

[verygreen]

I highly doubt this. HW3 (which presumably is a significant cost increase over HW2) would be a completely wasted expense on cars without pre-purchased FSD, which is the vast majority of them. Where are you getting this info?

the wiring diagram for model 3 effective Jan 9th lists hw3 as the ap unit.
We'll know soon enough I guess.

Thanks for the update. Is your information based on Erik Strait's software findings or additional information:

No, I believe the information in that youtube video is incorrect. Also we already had the same "oh! rear radar!" moment like half a year ago or more, did not we? It was based on the same info.

 

[Ben W]

I wouldn't doubt verygreen.
Elon has said HW3 is the same cost as HW2. It helps when you have a tailor made solution and can cut out your supplier's 50% margin. The manufacturing scale advantages of manufacturing 400-500k per year vs 30-100k are also very significant.

The potential for customers to later upgrade to FSD more than justifies the initial cost of 100% rollout. The new chip should also improve EAP reliability and improve the free safety features.

I stand corrected. Good point that HW3 will improve the basic safety features for all cars, not just those with FSD enabled.

 

[MorrisonHiker]

the wiring diagram for model 3 effective Jan 9th lists hw3 as the ap unit.
We'll know soon enough I guess.



No, I believe the information in that youtube video is incorrect. Also we already had the same "oh! rear radar!" moment like half a year ago or more, did not we? It was based on the same info.

We do know the APH4 code is relatively new and still in the configurator for non-US sites.

 

[Joel]

the wiring diagram for model 3 effective Jan 9th lists hw3 as the ap unit.
We'll know soon enough I guess.



No, I believe the information in that youtube video is incorrect. Also we already had the same "oh! rear radar!" moment like half a year ago or more, did not we? It was based on the same info.

Great, thanks. I also believe that information in the YouTube video is incorrect.

 

[Bladerskb]

Elon on ER call

When will customers start to see FSD? - ""We already have full-self driving capability on highways"

Idk why anyone takes what this guy says seriously anymore...

 

[preilly44]

I'm disappointed nobody asked for an update on AP3 during the call. Did I miss it?

 

[MorrisonHiker]

I'm disappointed nobody asked for an update on AP3 during the call. Did I miss it?

You aren't the only one! I couldn't believe they asked about the software and not the hardware. Perhaps they are trying to keep it secret for a couple more weeks.

 

[chillaban]

You aren't the only one! I couldn't believe they asked about the software and not the hardware. Perhaps they are trying to keep it secret for a couple more weeks.

I wonder if they wanted to optimize the news cycles or something. Maybe they do have something almost ready to announce and they want it to make all the headlines and act as another demand lever....

 

[MorrisonHiker]

I wonder if they wanted to optimize the news cycles or something. Maybe they do have something almost ready to announce and they want it to make all the headlines and act as another demand lever....

Yeah, hopefully soon. The first Model 3s will be delivered in Europe in the coming weeks...so that could be a good time, assuming they have AP3 already. If not, they could mention it for S & X and pull that demand lever.

 

[evster]

Yeah, hopefully soon. The first Model 3s will be delivered in Europe in the coming weeks...so that could be a good time, assuming they have AP3 already. If not, they could mention it for S & X and pull that demand lever.

One thing that MIGHT indicate HW3 on European cars is that NONE of the test/press cars that currently drive around in Europe have Autopilot activated. There is just standard cruise control. All test/press cars before have ALWAYS had Autopilot activated.

Reason might be that they have HW3 and the software is not ready for prime time yet and hence deactivated. In a few weeks when customer deliveries will start, they have to have it ready.

Just a theory though, but hope it is true!

 

[strangecosmos]

Pete Bannon said on the Q3 earnings call that Hardware 3 should be "ready to go" by the end of Q1, i.e. the end of March. In October, Elon said "~6 months" on Twitter, i.e. ~April.

It would be cool if some or all Model 3s are already shipping with Hardware 3, but isn't the more likely explanation that Tesla simply changed its documentation ahead of time, in preparation for the launch in a few months?

We do know the APH4 code is relatively new and still in the configurator for non-US sites.

Is this a typo or is info about Hardware 4 really already coming out?

 

[scottf200]

Pete Bannon said on the Q3 earnings call that Hardware 3 should be "ready to go" by the end of Q1, i.e. the end of March. In October, Elon said "~6 months" on Twitter, i.e. ~April.
It would be cool if some or all Model 3s are already shipping with Hardware 3, but isn't the more likely explanation that Tesla simply changed its documentation ahead of time, in preparation for the launch in a few months?
Is this a typo or is info about Hardware 4 really already coming out?

Configuration details on EU site?