You can’t buy a Waymo vehicle, and if you could it would hugely expensive. Tesla has gotten past the Lidar crutch, has probably the best commercial scale computer, that is cost and power effective. It is also getting the most training data. Fair to say they are the leader IMO.
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Tesla autopilot HW3
- Thread starter verygreen
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You can’t buy a Waymo vehicle, and if you could it would hugely expensive. Tesla has gotten past the Lidar crutch, has probably the best commercial scale computer, that is cost and power effective. It is also getting the most training data. Fair to say they are the leader IMO.
Number of vehicles in the wild, in the public's hands, that are self navigating and moving while empty.
Number of vehicles in the wild, on the road, self navigating and changing lanes without active driver permission.
Number of vehicles on the road, owned by the public, with OTA SW updates that enable new self driving features after purchase.
Number of vehicles produced quarterly with the above features.
For starters you are calling a lane keeping system and adaptive cruise control a self driving car. Its called an ADAS system which every other car maker has. What part of that dont you understand?
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
I am just saying that if Elon won't give early adopters free autopilot on their next purchase because Tesla is losing money, he's probably not going to give early adopters a refund on EAP/FSD. In case you are wondering, I am referencing this tweet: Bruce Mittleman on Twitter
Right now, just in terms of technological capability, Waymo cars can do a lot more autonomously than a Tesla car. For example, a Waymo car can navigate a complex 6 lane intersection with no driver inside. Our cars cannot do that. Furthermore, Waymo cars are L4 and our cars are L2. So in terms of SAE levels of autonomy, Tesla is 2 levels behind Waymo. Having a good FSD computer or getting a lot of data, certainly gives Tesla some interesting potential, but potential does not equate to being the leader. You have to look at what they have actually deployed in cars on the road. By that measurement, Waymo is definitely the leader. Having said that, I do think that Tesla has an advantage in fleet size and OTA capabilities. If Tesla finishes their autonomous driving software, they could deploy it to more cars and faster than Waymo. And, if Tesla does deploy say L4 autonomy to the entire fleet, then that would certainly change things dramatically. But Tesla has not done that yet.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
It's ok to admit the truth that Tesla is not the leader in autonomous driving tech. That does not take away from the cool tech in our cars or that Tesla is the leader in other areas like battery tech. And I absolutely LOVE Autopilot, especially now with V10. It's a great driver assist. It is also exciting to see the system improve with each OTA update. I am really looking forward to getting traffic light response and "automatic city driving" and experiencing that next step in Autopilot's progress. But we can and should able to appreciate the good about Tesla and also admit the bad.
Tweet on the subject
Elon: "We’re trying to make EVs & autonomy more affordable over time. This is the right thing to do. However, we cannot then also retroactively make earlier buyers whole without killing the company."
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Like you, I love autopilot and the fact that all i had to do to get it was buy a model 3. Waymo feels like pie in the sky to me. How much do you know about their tech? Are you really sure it is better? How fast do Waymo cars go in auto mode? I get the feeling that your opinions are bona fide and I am interested to hear your thoughts, but a little skeptical as to whether Waymo is more advanced.
A friend who works in tech expressed the feeling that: Waymo is children playing with toys in a sandbox. Tesla is a real company that makes cars with an AP with more than a billion hours. Get the Tesla and forget about Waymo.
Maybe that is going too far, but Tesla sells a product that eliminated my back and neck pain from too much driving and, for people who understand how to use it, it is a game-changer right now at a pretty reasonable price.
You cant be serious? None of that is autonomous. It's called ADAS. With that logic supercruise, propilot 2 and driver assistance pro are years ahead of Waymo, Cruise and Zoox to name a few
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
My reasons for saying Waymo has better tech is based on a few things:
1) According to the California DMV Report, Waymo has a disengagement rate of about 11,000 miles/disengagement, the best of all the companies that submit data to them.
2) From the videos I have seen, their cars can drive autonomously in a lot more environments than Tesla can currently. For example, Waymo cars can handle traffic lights, stop signs, and intersections autonomously, that Tesla cars currently cannot.
3) Waymo announced that they will be removing the safety driver completely. Being able to take passengers around Phoenix, on all kinds of different roads, with no safety driver all, is a testament to the capabilities and reliability of their autonomous tech. Again, something that Tesla is far from being able to do yet.
Again, I am not knocking Autopilot. But those are my reasons for saying Waymo is the leader in terms of autonomous tech capability.
I think it is obvious to anyone Tesla is ahead of Waymo given that they are expected to be Level 5 no geofence feature complete in 2.5 months by their own statement.
The only way that is possible is that they are significantly ahead of Waymo.
Unless Tesla lied, of course.
The only way that is possible is that they are significantly ahead of Waymo.
Unless Tesla lied, of course.
How fast do Waymo cars go? Do we know anything about their ability to be autonomous at high speed? (70 to 80 mph)
Are we supposed to feel bad for Elon/Tesla? Theranos was supposed to make blood tests easier, more affordable, and more accurate. Turns out they didn’t actually have a product and never really did, and it killed the company among other criminal charges. That’s what is supposed to happen!
I don’t give two s*its if doing the right thing kills your company. If that’s a likely outcome, surprise!, your company may not be as viable as you think it is!
Everyone tries to give Elon/Tesla a pass on this because self driving is a hard problem, which makes no sense to me. Ever hear the phrase “extraordinary claims require extraordinary proof”? The reason that Tesla is the only manufacturer that lets you purchase full self driving as an option is because the other manufacturers realize that literally no one in the world currently has the ability to deliver on that feature. Yet, that hasn’t stopped Elon/Tesla from taking real money from real customers with the promise that it’ll be here any day now for years.
Please, someone tell me why I should feel sorry for this company for being in a situation of their own making that they’ve doubled/tripled/quadrupled down on!
boonedocks
MS LR Blk/Blk 19”
You're the one who asked the unbounded in scope question:
Were any of my points incorrect?
So your leadership pertains to things that has NOTHING to do with having L4 tech and actually having cars that are fully autonomous.
Your logic:
1) Its not a self driving car if you can't buy it, however if you sell a lane keeping and adaptive cruise control system it is.
2) It must have an inferior board both in power and cost. Even though there are clearly better and more powerful and efficient at scale chips.
3) You must claim to have billions of miles of data while your software still struggles with the same scenarios/situations from 4 years ago.
So actual L4 tech and ability to autonomously self drive has nothing to do with leadership. You are a leader if you sell a car that can smart summon into the grass or off the curb and into poles and other objects. You are a leader if you sell a car that comes with lane keeping and adaptive cruise control.
Impeccable logic you Tesla fans got going there. Gotta love it.
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None of your points have anything to do with self driving which is the context i asked that question.
We are talking about self driving cars and you are talking about lane keeping and cruise control.
If we applied your logic again we know Tesla fans forbid the use of logic nor do they test their points. But if we actually applied your logic then Waymo will be behind every car company. They will essentially be in last place.
I believe in Phoenix they are authorized by the permit to go up to 65mph without a safety driver. They also have some semi trucks in the works. Waymo Brings Self-Driving Trucks to Phoenix-Area Freeways
The minivans do go on freeways, but not often: We spoke to a Waymo One customer about how robot taxis get confused by rainstorms
The reality of self driving cars, is they will never speed. So to go 80mph, they would have to be testing in TX, or the few other areas with those high of freeway limits.
I have said this before: I think it is actually possible robotaxis (2016 cars onwards) are an uncharacteristic (and an uneforced) error by Elon. Similar to the ”pedo” episode, where hubris got the best of him and he couldn’t let go in time.
It is quite possible Tesla turns out to be the Theranos of FSD. Because I also believe Theranos genuinely though they would change the world and make a huge breakthrough. The problem is: You can’t misrepresent that until you are there.
In most things Tesla or Elon hasn’t misrepresented or pre-sold. On anything this big anyway (smaller stuff like HP of course). I mean terraforming Mars is aspirational, not pre-selling or claiming they are there merely pending ”validation and regulatory approval”. But they did pre-sell FSD for some reason. Level 5 no geofence on all cars since late 2016... merely pending ”validation and regulatory approval”... that is a big pre-sell commitment. That is a big thing to say about their current status.
But, this is just my pessimism of course. In 2.5 months Tesla is expected to be Level 5 no geofence feature complete and the optimists may still win.
Woah, not sure if that was directed at the messenger or the message. If the former, I was not implying anyone should feel sorry for Tesla, only providing a more direct reference to support @diplomat33 's statement.
If the latter, I don't see that as 'feel sorry for Tesla' statement, but rather economic reality.
"Fundamental metric of good of Tesla is how many years sooner it brings the advent of a sustainable energy future"
"Tesla cannot continue to lose money. To achieve our goal of environmental sustainability, Tesla must be financially sustainable or we will cease to exist."
So, a car without any people in it navigating a parking lot is not self driving?
A car picking lanes and exits and manuvering to them without confirmation is not self driving?
I have a car with lane assist and ACC, it does none of that.
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