Tesla BEV Competition Developments

[Brando]

The why matters, but public demand will tip the scales. Right now Tesla is doing well for a small automaker, but all of Tesla's production to date is less than 1% of one year's ICE production. There are a lot of enthusiasts and they drove the Model 3 pre-sales, it's still a tiny fraction of the car market, though getting closer to the tipping point.

Panic time for the established automakers will come when traditional ICE buyers will pass on buying a new ICE and will wait in line for a Model 3 rather than take what they have to offer. At that point, ICE will become an obsolescent technology people only use because there isn't enough of the new tech around.

If VW is piddling around with their own GF, dragging their feet about finishing it, they can push the pedal to the metal and get it done. That leaves them in a stronger place than most of the competition who may have some decent designs that could be put into mass production (like a version 2 Bolt platform with the drawbacks of version 1 fixed), but they won't have the batteries to mass produce them.

At that point I fully expect LG to pull a fast one on their current customers and only provide the bare minimum of cells required under their contracts while launching their own EV using their excess battery production capacity.

When film cameras began to die, a lot of players from other industries jumped into the digital world and made their own cameras. Cell phone cameras pretty much killed the snapshot camera entirely and some of those new players left the still picture market. However there still is a higher end camera market. Hasselblad, the Rolls Royce of professional cameras didn't make it.

I was recently looking for a newer Nikon DSLR to replace my 10 year old rig which was nice, but is getting too far behind the curve for what I need. I found most of the old film camera makers are hanging in there, but Sony looks to be #3 in the DSLR market. Back in the days of film, Sony may have made some still film cameras, but if they did, they were also rans in the market. Sony leveraged their strength in the electronics world to carve out a niche for themselves in the DSLR market, though the big 2 in that niche are Nikon and Canon.

LG could do the same in the EV market. They created a pretty tight relationship with GM to make the Bolt and I suspect it was so they could learn the details of making cars. They already make large appliances and just about every electrical and electronic component needed for an EV.

At that point any car company that doesn't have a large supply of batteries locked down is screwed.

I do expect VW to drag their feet until crunch time happens. I am not sure when that moment will come. It will be sort of the 100th monkey moment when enough potential car buyers realize EVs, when done right, are simply superior to ICE. It will be some point after Tesla catches up on Model 3 pre-orders and it becomes possible for anyone to order a car and get it within at least a couple of months. But it could be a couple of years beyond that.

Predicting when the tipping point happens is difficult to predict. Sometimes it's almost overnight like when music CDs came in. Everyone was expecting the much cheaper vinyl was going to be around for years to come, but it died out in less than a year. (Though made a come back as an audiophile/enthusiast thing as well as a dance club thing.)

Cars were around as an expensive hobby for decades before Henry Ford mass produced Model Ts and the tipping point happened within a year or two of the Model T's introduction. However, it took another 20 years to really push horses out of the market in the US and even longer in other places. Most people don't realize that the German army in WW II used more horse carts to move stuff around than motorized vehicles and as the war went on they became more and more dependent on horse drawn vehicles as oil got scarce.

Great overview of auto industry attempts at EV.
Big Auto, We Have A Problem — US Electric Car Sales Report | CleanTechnica

I really don't think DEMAND is the problem.
Yes, you are correct, the elephant in the room is battery supplies.
And as with most things as the price goes down, demand goes up.
Nice read, thanks.

PS - Hosed horse tail pipe problem
The Great Horse Manure Crisis of 1894

 

[wdolson]

Polls show the general public are still unaware of electric vehicles.

A poll of Californians from last month show even Californians are mostly unaware of electric cars:
Automakers and Policymakers May Be on a Path to Electric Vehicles; Consumers Aren’t - ITS
A broader poll from 2017 showed a similar phenomenon nationwide:
Survey: 60% Of Americans Aren't Aware Of Plug-in Electric Vehicles ... At All | CleanTechnica

The wealthier end of the car market is probably more aware of EVs than the middle class or poor because a large number of wealthy people at least know someone with a Tesla and/or other EVs. When I got my Tesla, only two of my neighbors knew what it was, and both were in the tech world. The Model 3 is the EV that will likely start penetrating middle class neighborhoods as the Tesla enthusiasts in the middle class buy them. Then people will see their neighbor's car and realize how much of a game changer electric cars can be.

As those polls show, most of the public aren't really aware that electric cars are there among them. I've run into quite a few people who think Teslas are hybrids if they know what they are at all. I've also run into quite a few people who don't realize Teslas are American cars too.

We live in a time when people self filter for the kind of news they get. There are quite a few people who want to ignore the news and about all they will check is the weather and possibly sports results. Others are narrow focused on other news, but ignore everything else such as celebrity gossip.

Anyone who knows much about cars has probably heard about Tesla, but I didn't know much more than the name when I set out looking for a new car in 2015. I think I was aware they were electric, but didn't really know anything else. I wasn't finding what I wanted in the ICE world and looked at Tesla on a whim. I was amazed the Model S destroyed all my criteria when no ICE or hybrid could even match all of them. But I deeply research everything, especially major purchases.

I also have an engineering background and I could see Tesla was onto something completely revolutionary. A Model S looks a lot like many modern sedans, but under the skin, it's something completely different and better in most respects than anything else that has come before. But people who don't understand the engineering (either coming from the automotive world, or general engineering principles) won't see that. But once people get a chance to test drive their neighbor's Model 3, they might realize it is completely different and that may tip the scales with demand for EVs.

 

[RobStark]

I've run into quite a few people who think Teslas are hybrids if they know what they are at all. I've also run into quite a few people who don't realize Teslas are American cars too.

There is also the fact Tesla doesn't do paid advertising.

 

[Brando]

There is also the fact Tesla doesn't do paid advertising.

Tesla can not yet demand for their cars - so no ad dollars make sense.

Ads for EV from other auto makers? (as I don't watch TV, I can't comment, you?)
and again the article shows lack of effort by auto industry
Big Auto, We Have A Problem — US Electric Car Sales Report | CleanTechnica

 

[Brando]

Polls show the general public are still unaware of electric vehicles.

A poll of Californians from last month show even Californians are mostly unaware of electric cars:
Automakers and Policymakers May Be on a Path to Electric Vehicles; Consumers Aren’t - ITS
A broader poll from 2017 showed a similar phenomenon nationwide:
Survey: 60% Of Americans Aren't Aware Of Plug-in Electric Vehicles ... At All | CleanTechnica

The wealthier end of the car market is probably more aware of EVs than the middle class or poor because a large number of wealthy people at least know someone with a Tesla and/or other EVs. When I got my Tesla, only two of my neighbors knew what it was, and both were in the tech world. The Model 3 is the EV that will likely start penetrating middle class neighborhoods as the Tesla enthusiasts in the middle class buy them. Then people will see their neighbor's car and realize how much of a game changer electric cars can be.

As those polls show, most of the public aren't really aware that electric cars are there among them. I've run into quite a few people who think Teslas are hybrids if they know what they are at all. I've also run into quite a few people who don't realize Teslas are American cars too.

We live in a time when people self filter for the kind of news they get. There are quite a few people who want to ignore the news and about all they will check is the weather and possibly sports results. Others are narrow focused on other news, but ignore everything else such as celebrity gossip.

Anyone who knows much about cars has probably heard about Tesla, but I didn't know much more than the name when I set out looking for a new car in 2015. I think I was aware they were electric, but didn't really know anything else. I wasn't finding what I wanted in the ICE world and looked at Tesla on a whim. I was amazed the Model S destroyed all my criteria when no ICE or hybrid could even match all of them. But I deeply research everything, especially major purchases.

I also have an engineering background and I could see Tesla was onto something completely revolutionary. A Model S looks a lot like many modern sedans, but under the skin, it's something completely different and better in most respects than anything else that has come before. But people who don't understand the engineering (either coming from the automotive world, or general engineering principles) won't see that. But once people get a chance to test drive their neighbor's Model 3, they might realize it is completely different and that may tip the scales with demand for EVs.

1- since about 60% of new car buyers are looking for about $25,000 or less, most electrics [BEVs] wouldn't even be considered.
2- Tesla got over $400,000,000 in deposits with NO advertising dollars.
3- Lack of awareness would seem to be every one's problem except for Tesla.

 

[RobStark]

Tesla can not yet demand for their cars - so no ad dollars make sense.

Ads for EV from other auto makers? (as I don't watch TV, I can't comment, you?)
and again the article shows lack of effort by auto industry
Big Auto, We Have A Problem — US Electric Car Sales Report | CleanTechnica

1) True but explains lack of Tesla awareness among general population.

2) I don't watch live TV other than sports. Trojan Football. Dodgers baseball(only 1/4 of games, 162 per year plus playoffs is way too much time),half Galaxy soccer "matches". And most Lakers away games. I know Honda is advertising the sh!t out of the Honda Clarity PHEV on Lakers games here on Local TV. They have a Clarity PHEV logo over the score during games for stretches.

 

[Brando]

Polls show the general public are still unaware of electric vehicles.

A poll of Californians from last month show even Californians are mostly unaware of electric cars:
Automakers and Policymakers May Be on a Path to Electric Vehicles; Consumers Aren’t - ITS

ITS UC Davis Study claims no increase in awareness 2014-17 - really?? even after Model 3 deposits??
2014 June vs 2017 June - please read above article. seems a poor survey to me, you?

 

[wdolson]

1- since about 60% of new car buyers are looking for about $25,000 or less, most electrics [BEVs] wouldn't even be considered.
2- Tesla got over $400,000,000 in deposits with NO advertising dollars.
3- Lack of awareness would seem to be every one's problem except for Tesla.

400,000 deposits is impressive, but in a world of over 1 billion cars and 100 million passenger vehicles sold per year, it's a drop in the bucket. In a country of 320 million people, even if all the reservations were in the US (which they weren't) that's barely 1% of the population.

ITS UC Davis Study claims no increase in awareness 2014-17 - really?? even after Model 3 deposits??
2014 June vs 2017 June - please read above article. seems a poor survey to me, you?

I was looking for the 2017 poll, which covered a larger population. It is possible the UC Davis poll was dodgy. I think a lot of people have expressed here than EV awareness drops pretty sharply as you move away from the coasts in the US.

 

[RobStark]

~125k Reservations in CA is not nothing.

Both of my 20 something nephews ended up cancelling their Model 3 reservations.

Talking to them they thought they were going to get much more car for $35k and much cheaper access to the Supercharger Network.

The older one purchased a few months old fully loaded Mazda 6 with less than 6k miles for $24k.

The younger one spent too much of his Model 3 fund on girls. Still has old beater Hyundai Sonata.

 

[Crowded Mind]

Talking to them they thought they were going to get much more car for $35k and much cheaper access to the Supercharger Network.

Interesting. Anything in specific they were expecting that didn’t materialize? EAP cost is the only thing I can think of that didn’t beat reveal date expectations, other than timing of the standard range, of course. Did the likelihood of only getting the half credit change their mind? Idk if they are in CA, but seems silly to buy a used Mazda 6 for $24k when you could buy a Model 3 for $29k in CA with the half fed credit (I think).

 

[RobStark]

Interesting. Anything in specific they were expecting that didn’t materialize? EAP cost is the only thing I can think of that didn’t beat reveal date expectations, other than timing of the standard range, of course. Did the likelihood of only getting the half credit change their mind? Idk if they are in CA, but seems silly to buy a used Mazda 6 for $24k when you could buy a Model 3 for $29k in CA with the half fed credit (I think).

They were kinda down on Tesla and didn't want to push the subject at Christmas dinner.

Both live in CA. But the older one needed a car now. Like last December. He was first in line at one of the Orange County stores. He is a car guy. He got a CPO Mazda 6 Signature that was a few months old with less than 6k miles. It is a $35k car new.

Nappa Leather heated and ventilated Seats, HUD, real Sen wood trim, ultrasuede door panel inserts and headliner, heated steering wheel, articulating LED headlights etc.

The younger one just got his degree in Environmental Science and volunteering at LA aquarium and City of Los Angeles department in charge of water quality. Not sure of the exact name of the department. Angling for a job at California EPA. Also currently Asst Manager at a Jamba Juice. He wanted a Model 3 for "transitioning the world to sustainable production and consumption of clean energy." Like I said he probably couldn't afford a Model 3 anyway because it depended on a large down payment he doesn't have to afford the monthly payments.

I think they were both hoping for more car at $35k with cheap supercharger access to justify maxing out on their ability to make monthly payments. Maybe needed a lease to make the numbers work. Like I said didn't push the issue too much at Christmas dinner.

 

[Brando]

@RobStark -
I know Honda is advertising the sh!t out of the Honda Clarity PHEV on Lakers games here on Local TV. They have a Clarity PHEV logo over the score during games for stretches.

Honda doesn't make the top 15 plug-in electric/hybrids in sales - they need to advertise - a lot.

 

[schonelucht]

Interesting. Anything in specific they were expecting that didn’t materialize?

Can't speak for @RobStark 's cousin but one common sentiment that I hear is reservation holders were expecting the $35k version somewhere in 2017/early 2018, not 2019.

 

[DurandalAI]

@RobStark -
I know Honda is advertising the sh!t out of the Honda Clarity PHEV on Lakers games here on Local TV. They have a Clarity PHEV logo over the score during games for stretches.

Honda doesn't make the top 15 plug-in electric/hybrids in sales - they need to advertise - a lot.

I seriously considered their PHEV as a bridge until I get my Model 3. The battery only range is too limited, however. It needs a range more like what the Volt has. I won’t support GM by buying a Bolt or Volt with all their current and past actions in trying to block fuel economy standards.

 

[RobStark]

I seriously considered their PHEV as a bridge until I get my Model 3. The battery only range is too limited, however. It needs a range more like what the Volt has. I won’t support GM by buying a Bolt or Volt with all their current and past actions in trying to block fuel economy standards.

Clarity PHEV midsize sedan has 47 miles AER
Volt compact liftback sedan has 53 miles AER

6 miles of AER is the difference between a purchase and not a purchase?

Interior materials and appointments are far superior in the Clarity for $80 more.

I don't understand how GM sells a single Volt without a $4k Plus discount.

 

[DurandalAI]

Clarity PHEV midsize sedan has 47 miles AER
Volt compact liftback sedan has 53 miles AER

6 miles of AER is the difference between a purchase and not a purchase?

Interior materials and appointments are far superior in the Clarity for $80 more.

I don't understand how GM sells a single Volt without a $4k Plus discount.

I was under the impression that the Honda PHEV got less electric miles than that, but I guess I was wrong. Essentially I would want the AER to cover all daily commuting miles, without having to switch on the gas except in very cold weather and/or on longer trips. For that, it needs to be in excess of 50 miles.

 

[RobStark]

I was under the impression that the Honda PHEV got less electric miles than that, but I guess I was wrong. Essentially I would want the AER to cover all daily commuting miles, without having to switch on the gas except in very cold weather and/or on longer trips. For that, it needs to be in excess of 50 miles.

I suppose if you lived in Metricland in excess of 75 km would be enough?

Seriously, a hard line in the tiny sliver between Clarity PHEV and Volt AER?

BTW Clarity PHEV went on sale Halloween 2017, they are still ramping up. Additionally given Honda's superior reputation for reliablility where PHEVs are sold the most I would be shocked if they don't outsell both Volt and Fusion Energi in 2018.

 

[RobStark]

.

I don't understand how GM sells a single Volt without a $4k Plus discount.

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**Current Owners and Lessees of 1999 or newer Daewoo, Daihatsu, Honda, Hyundai, Isuzu, Kia, Mazda, Mitsubishi, Nissan, Scion, Subaru, Suzuki and Toyota vehicles: Payments are based on an MSRP of $33,220. 35 monthly payments total $7,980. Must show proof of ownership/lease. Option to purchase at lease end for an amount to be determined at lease signing. Lessor must approve lease. Take delivery by 04-02-2018. Lessee pays for maintenance, repair, excess wear and disposition fee of $395 or less at end of lease. Payments may be higher in some states. Not available with other offers.

 

[RobStark]

 

[RobStark]

Nissan casts doubt on solid-state batteries