Lab to mass production is typically *more than* 10 years. So they're being fools. 10-15 years from now, sure, that breakthrough battery may arrive. But by then they will have already lost lots and lots of marketshare and capital.
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Tesla BEV Competition Developments
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The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
In fairness to the automakers, I'm not claiming by any means they are only starting research now. At least some of them must have been working on this for years, and certainly there are plenty of labs and universities around the world very busy at work. I'm guessing the automakers hope one of those (who have already been conducting research for some time now) will pan out at some time in the medium term. I'm not that optimistic, is all (although it could happen, of course).
Throwaway account for anonymity.
I've just learned this about the BMW i6:
It's internal name is 'Tesla Killer'.
They are not investing a lot of money this year as they want to show big profits in their centenary year.
They say it 'could' happen.
They don't want to write off any technology.
They are currently doing a lot of small 'studies' on pieces of technology and just seeing what they find out.
I've just learned this about the BMW i6:
It's internal name is 'Tesla Killer'.
They are not investing a lot of money this year as they want to show big profits in their centenary year.
They say it 'could' happen.
They don't want to write off any technology.
They are currently doing a lot of small 'studies' on pieces of technology and just seeing what they find out.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
im sorry if it wasn't significant enoguh for your standards.
You may not understand all reasons for anonymity.
To me it is the first strong indication that i6 is very far from reality. Others have pointed here and elsewhere to i6 as an example of the premium-EV space getting crowded. This is firm evidence suggesting that is far away. That is all I meant to convey.
You may not understand all reasons for anonymity.
To me it is the first strong indication that i6 is very far from reality. Others have pointed here and elsewhere to i6 as an example of the premium-EV space getting crowded. This is firm evidence suggesting that is far away. That is all I meant to convey.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Sorry, I'm sure you may have your personal reasons for wanting anonymity but what you stated can be easily deducted by observing what BMW is actually doing/not doing. The fact, if this is in fact a fact, that BMW is using the internal name "Tesla Killer" is flattering to Tesla. Do you mean this is their official internal name, or something that is thrown around as something of a nick-name? Also what do you mean by "The say it 'could' happen"? That the i6 could come to exist (or not exist) or something else (what is "it"?). The fact that they are doing preliminary studies in to different techs and are playing several horses simultaneosly can't come as a surprise to anyone, we all know about the 7-series FCV for example.
Johan
Ex got M3 in the divorce, waiting for EU Model Y!
Thanks for the info, sorry if my first reply was harsh. That harshness should be more directed toward BMW and less toward you, when I think it over. "Don't shoot the messenger" and all that
It's dishartening to see how little companies like BMW are able to achieve with all the rescources they have and all the time they've had to see the writing on the wall.
I don't see how anybody thinks a car that can't be in production until 2020 will be a Tesla killer. By 2020 Tesla will either be unstoppable, or will be in a world of hurt either by economic factors (such as another crash like 2008 or worse) or a major flub on their part (such as really screwing up the Model 3 and few people want it). If the economy doesn't do anything extreme in the next 4 years and the Model 3 is even a moderate success, Tesla will be here to stay and the auto industry will have to work like mad just for their combined production of BEVs to match Tesla's. The way things are shaping up, Tesla is going to be the only car maker with enough batteries to build hundreds of thousands of long range BEVs by 2020. Other car companies will be able to manage 30-50,000, but nobody is else is going to have enough batteries to build enough cars to be any threat to Tesla in quantity.
By the time another car maker decides to build something equivalent to a Gigafactory, Tesla will probably be building GF 2 or maybe even GF 3.
Even if the i6 is a direct competition to the Model S, it will be at least 8 years late and I think BMW has fundamentally misunderstood the Model S customers. There are some Model S owners who moved sideways from another car that cost about the same, but most Model S buyers bought up from something that cost a lot less. There are some Model S owners who are impressed by the BMW allure, but a large number aren't. Simply the fact that BMW has an all electric sedan like the Model S is not going to get Model S owners to switch just because it's a BMW. It's doubtful that BMW can come up with anything that will be much better than a Model S in range, cargo space, performance, or much else. They might be able to come up with something cushier, but the Model S will probably still be superior in many ways.
The fact of the matter is in some areas the Model S probably can't be beaten without some technological breakthroughs. Other cars may match it, but it can't be beaten. The engineering is that good. It's pretty much impossible to kill a product that good head to head. BMW could do what Microsoft did to kill off rivals that were technically superior, but the stockholders probably wouldn't go for giving away cars for free or even offering cars at well below the cost to manufacture.
By the time another car maker decides to build something equivalent to a Gigafactory, Tesla will probably be building GF 2 or maybe even GF 3.
Even if the i6 is a direct competition to the Model S, it will be at least 8 years late and I think BMW has fundamentally misunderstood the Model S customers. There are some Model S owners who moved sideways from another car that cost about the same, but most Model S buyers bought up from something that cost a lot less. There are some Model S owners who are impressed by the BMW allure, but a large number aren't. Simply the fact that BMW has an all electric sedan like the Model S is not going to get Model S owners to switch just because it's a BMW. It's doubtful that BMW can come up with anything that will be much better than a Model S in range, cargo space, performance, or much else. They might be able to come up with something cushier, but the Model S will probably still be superior in many ways.
The fact of the matter is in some areas the Model S probably can't be beaten without some technological breakthroughs. Other cars may match it, but it can't be beaten. The engineering is that good. It's pretty much impossible to kill a product that good head to head. BMW could do what Microsoft did to kill off rivals that were technically superior, but the stockholders probably wouldn't go for giving away cars for free or even offering cars at well below the cost to manufacture.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
BMW does not do cushier. BMW does sportier.
To analyze automotive choices one needs to see not only what car owners previously had but what car they would have bought if Tesla did not exist.
Many Model S did and do stretch budgets. Many also owned a Prius and a Porsche.
There is a ongoing thread at teslamotors.com forums asking what would you have bought if Tesla did not exist. Most said a premium German midsize sedan. Mercedes E Class, BMW 5 Series or Audi A6.
To analyze automotive choices one needs to see not only what car owners previously had but what car they would have bought if Tesla did not exist.
Many Model S did and do stretch budgets. Many also owned a Prius and a Porsche.
There is a ongoing thread at teslamotors.com forums asking what would you have bought if Tesla did not exist. Most said a premium German midsize sedan. Mercedes E Class, BMW 5 Series or Audi A6.
I know Mercedes is the king of the creature comforts, but in my limited experience with BMWs I thought they were cushier than the Model S is. They've seemed cushier than most American cars I've seen.
In the poll either the higher end of the owners was answering, or those people owned much cheaper models of German sedans before buying their Tesla. This from a study of Tesla owners shows 38% owned cars less than $40K before getting a Tesla and 69% had cars worth less than $60K. My current car cost $22K new and it's worth about $2-$3K now. But I've had it a very long time too.
Before finding Tesla I was not thrilled with any of the choices out there. I was considering the new Lincoln Continental which is supposed to debut this spring or possible a Subaru Outback. If I fit in one comfortably, I might be considering a Ford Fusion.
Let the battery factory arms race commence. More so than any prototype or hype, this is the beginning of something big. I think it was JHM that posited that there would need to be about 39 gigafactories in place by 2025 to produce the Lithium-Ion batteries necessary to meet the Bloomberg video projection for electric car penetration into the market. I think this is a positive for Tesla, validating its business model for both the electrification of automobiles and stationary storage. $100 million - $500 million - ???
With thy the new incentives coming online in Germany and the copycat nature of ICE manufacturers, look for more announcements in the next 6-12 months from the truly serious future manufacturers of electric cars and Samsung. I wouldn't be surprised if Volkswagon and BMW announce factories next, followed by GM and Nissan.
Still waiting for for the holy grail of Apple/Google getting in the mix (potentially in partnership with Tesla) for their own Li-Ion factories. Would fit with the Project Titan time schedule to do something in the next 10-18 months.
Daimler to follow Tesla with new €500 million lithium-ion battery factory: pv-magazine
With thy the new incentives coming online in Germany and the copycat nature of ICE manufacturers, look for more announcements in the next 6-12 months from the truly serious future manufacturers of electric cars and Samsung. I wouldn't be surprised if Volkswagon and BMW announce factories next, followed by GM and Nissan.
Still waiting for for the holy grail of Apple/Google getting in the mix (potentially in partnership with Tesla) for their own Li-Ion factories. Would fit with the Project Titan time schedule to do something in the next 10-18 months.
Daimler to follow Tesla with new €500 million lithium-ion battery factory: pv-magazine
SmartElectric
Active Member
This is a follow up from this thread:
Daimler closes subsidiary cell factory
Daimler closed production of cells, and moved that investment to working on packs. This is not a Gigafactory competitor, rather, Daimler is only partially investing, and not at all taking the risk/reward strategy Tesla is doing with full cell and pack production at scale.
Tesla technically isn't in competition with anyone, as we all know they want other automakers to make EVs, but why would anyone buy an inferior product for the same price when compared to the Model 3? That's wasted money.....Why would anyone spend the same amount of money for lower battery mileage?
Tesla will snap up the market share in no time.
Hyundai officially debuts the IONIQ and says the BEV has a 28 kWh battery 100 kW charging [Gallery] | Electrek
107 miles for $35,000
or
200+ for $35,000
!?!
Tesla will snap up the market share in no time.
Hyundai officially debuts the IONIQ and says the BEV has a 28 kWh battery 100 kW charging [Gallery] | Electrek
107 miles for $35,000
or
200+ for $35,000
!?!
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As a 2013 Leaf lessor, I'm ecstatic with the IONIQ! It'll force the price of 24kwh BEVs down, further depressing the used value of older BEV's. I'm hoping for a buyout price of under $8k (> $4k discount from contract) when my lease is done in Oct. I like my leaf, it does everything I need from it, and is cheap to operate and is available now. My model 3 reservation will be to replace my wife's car.
Atone know anything about this Spanish battery company's claims??
Next Big Future: Spanish company Graphenano claims Graphene Polymer batteries with triple the energy density of lithium ion and commercialization by end of 2016
Next Big Future: Spanish company Graphenano claims Graphene Polymer batteries with triple the energy density of lithium ion and commercialization by end of 2016
Funny thing, I've found that BMWs were getting cushier, and less sportier. Which was a big reason why we opted for the Tesla rather than BMW 535xi or MB E400 (wife nixed Audi A6). I find the Tesla to be similar in fun to drive quotient as our old 2003 BMW 325xi, but with the room and comfort of the 5 series. I really enjoyed the older BMW 6 cylinders more than the current turbo iterations. It's very noticeable IMHO.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
GM buys self-driving technology startup Cruise for $1 Billion.
By all accounts, these guys are the real deal. It remains to be seen whether GM is capable of rejuvenating itself with young blood transfusions like this.
By all accounts, these guys are the real deal. It remains to be seen whether GM is capable of rejuvenating itself with young blood transfusions like this.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
BMW is definitely sportier than the direct competition in MB,Audi, and Lexus.
Comparisons to Tesla is more subjective because they are so different.
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