Seems fairly straightforward.
2017 - handful at best
2018 - up to 75k
2019 - somewhere between 75-100k
2020 - 100k
So reservation holder #375,000 may very well be waiting till 2021 for their Model 3.
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Seems fairly straightforward.
2017 - handful at best
2018 - up to 75k
2019 - somewhere between 75-100k
2020 - 100k
So reservation holder #375,000 may very well be waiting till 2021 for their Model 3.
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
You're right that the Bolt doesn't check all the compliance vehicle boxes. However, if you'd be so kind as to name another mass market vehicle that isn't available nationwide until a full model year after its introduction (in CARB/ZEV states), I'd be happy to reconsider my opinion. This isn't the only characteristic that the 2017 Bolt shares with compliance vehicles, but it's the most visible.
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Hey!! I've got a $16K Corolla, actually closer to $18K (and that was after the cash for clunkers credit), but still ....
How many non-California buyers received their Model S in 2012? I don't think they really started shipping widely until 2013. By traditional car terms, that was a model year later. I will also bet all 2017 Model 3's will be California cars. It won't be until the 2018 model year that other states start getting them. But I doubt anyone here would argue the Model S or Model 3 is a compliance car based on that standard.
Compliance cars are ONLY sold in CARB states for their entire runs. Like the Golf EV or the Toyota RAV4 EV.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
Hey!! I've got a $16K Corolla, actually closer to $18K (and that was after the cash for clunkers credit), but still ....
I hope you've already paired off with a life partner of your choosing.....the Corolla is not normally known to help seal the deal if you're not.
(Then again, there's hope for everyone. I was driving a Cavalier when I met my future wife.....)
JohnSnowNW
Active Member
I've never understood trying to compare Tesla's roll out of California manufactured vehicles to established ICE manufacturers, with extensive dealership networks.
As for the Model 3, the roll out is completely different than GM sending Bolts to specific states from Michigan. The M3 rollout is regional with the starting point of where the vehicle is built.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
You can feel free to add another year to the analysis, but it doesn't chance things in any significant way for this comparison.On thing to note, though, with the Model X example is that the actual ramp-up means the Model X was delayed more like 2.5 years. Volume deliveries did not really begin until late H1 or by H2/2016. They were still delivering international Signature orders in Q3-Q4/2016. In Electrek parlance, Model X was a bit of a California compliance car for its two, three first quarters...
Certainly if e.g. Bolt EV is available widely by mid-2017, it is possibly means - even with a Model 3 reservation and a model release in late 2017 - that actual Bolt EV availability will still be over a year sooner than a Model 3 for many (most?) buyers. Availability of Model 3 in late 2017 might be similar to what Bolt EV availability was in late 2016.
Maybe Tesla will surprise us, but past precedent suggests at least some caution. Both Model S and Model X ramped up terribly, terribly slow. Model 3 can be expected to ramp-up faster due to a simple design, but even that IMO is not absolutely certain, and even if it ramps up faster, the higher demand at the lower price point might result people waiting for a long time...
We shall see. People were very optimistic Tesla had learned things by the Model X release. Alas, not. Maybe similar optimism will finally be rewarded by Model 3 release.
This is a bit off topic, but no matter how slow Tesla launches, their cars will never be a compliance car under any definition, even stricter ones that include cars like the Leaf, because Tesla does not need to manufacture any car in order to maintain CA compliant (all their cars are EVs).
Has it already been a calendar year??? Crap I missed Valentine's, Anniversary, and B'day. No nookie for me in 2017.
jgillispie
Member
This doesn't change anything. People that put the money down for a 3 knew there was going to be an unknown wait time regardless. I don't really expect such a minor part to affect the timeline. There are those that don't have the patience or the luxury of waiting and can understand canceling.
Now, would there even be a Bolt if Tesla hadn't announced the 3? Pretty sure the answer is no. And if there wasn't a 3 coming out, I would settle for a Bolt. The range factor covers a lot of it's shortcomings and it's semi-available. I want a better car for that price though so I will continue my wait.
Now, would there even be a Bolt if Tesla hadn't announced the 3? Pretty sure the answer is no. And if there wasn't a 3 coming out, I would settle for a Bolt. The range factor covers a lot of it's shortcomings and it's semi-available. I want a better car for that price though so I will continue my wait.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
There's a difference between available and delivered. This was discussed upthread. For a regular car launch, it's not necessarily common for every single state to get deliveries (this varies based on demand, there may be certain states like Alaska for example that never get even a single vehicle delivered). However, for non-compliance vehicles, they are in order books and are *available* in every state (can be ordered). Compliance vehicles however, are typically limited to the CARB states in terms of ordering (unless you jump through hoops to order in a CARB state and have it shipped to you).
Plus it's impossible for any Tesla car to be a compliance car under any definition until Tesla makes ICE vehicles such that they require a certain amount of EVs to be compliant.
Obviously mine was a jab at Electrek at calling the Bolt a compliance car (their favourite rhetoric which they keep repeating often). It is about as ludicrous as calling Model X a compliance car. Both have had slow ramp-ups for reasons unrelated to compliance. That's about it.
Now, there of course has been tons of actual compliance cars. Bolt just is not one of them. And of course neither are Teslas.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
I think the point is the Bolt ramp up (similar to the 2016 Volt launch) is very much related to compliance (it's optimized to maximize the ZEV credits they can get). They aren't doing it for logistics reasons (Bolt is assembled in Michigan), unlike Tesla (west coast launch to reduce shipping time).
They could have also opened up the order books in all states at launch (and have deliveries organized for optimal logistics), like how a normal vehicle would launch. Instead they favored CARB states (much like the 2016 Volt) to try to focus demand there.
The Leaf US launch was also compliance driven too, that's why some people define it as a compliance car too (although it has shed that label with sheer volume, including international).
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Oddly enough my wife was driving a Cavalier when we met ...
If one needs a car to attract members of the opposite sex, a cheaper alternative might be cosmetic surgery. Just sayin'
I do get that, but the fact that GM are being smart about limited supply is exactly the same reason why Tesla sold the first quarter(s) to markets near the factory. They are selling where the limited supply can go to the smartest use in their case. This is exactly how Tesla does it too.
For GM the smartest use is ZEV markets, since they have no problem distributing far and wide geographically with their network. Instead, in their case ZEV markets give them the best bang for the buck. For Tesla it has been markets near the factory since they don't have a need to prioritize ZEV markets, but they do have other reasons for prioritizing close to home - and besides their factory is in California anyway if selling credits matters...
Electrek is just being petty about the constant reference to Bolt as a compliance car. That suggest intentionally limiting its supply, which I don't think is true.
I don't believe GM would ever have made an EV were it not for Tesla. Tesla demonstrated the market, and after GM crushed the EV1 and all the bad publicity that went with that fiasco, their continued refusal to build an EV after Tesla had demonstrated that an EV can be an outstanding, high-performance car and that there is a large market for it, would have made GM look even worse. After GM led and won the lawsuit against CA, it justified discontinuing and crushing the EV1 by saying EVs are no good and nobody would buy one. Tesla proved they were wrong. GM had to build an EV or look even worse than it already does. Effectively, the Bolt is a publicity-compliance car even if it is not a compliance car in the strictest sense.
I'm glad GM is building an EV and that it's available now. The more choice buyers have, the better, and the more EVs are built, the better. The public is going to buy all the EVs that all the automakers combined can build for a number of years, so the more the better. Personally, I think Tesla is a much more reliable car company than GM, and I think the Model 3 will be worth the wait, and anyway, I'm still driving electric while I wait.
I hope that while we argue about which car is better and which company is better we can all agree that more EVs on the road is always better.
I'm glad GM is building an EV and that it's available now. The more choice buyers have, the better, and the more EVs are built, the better. The public is going to buy all the EVs that all the automakers combined can build for a number of years, so the more the better. Personally, I think Tesla is a much more reliable car company than GM, and I think the Model 3 will be worth the wait, and anyway, I'm still driving electric while I wait.
I hope that while we argue about which car is better and which company is better we can all agree that more EVs on the road is always better.
What is a "publicity-compliance car"? Sure, Tesla motivated an entire industry, GM included. That is not at dispute IMO. But simply a slow ramp-up does not a compliance car make. I think Electrek is off base there.
Ask yourself this: In what way is Bolt a compliance car? If it is just because of a slow ramp-up then there isn't much of a case.
Sure, Tesla motivated an entire industry, GM included. That is not at dispute IMO. But simply a slow ramp-up does not a compliance car make. I think Electrek is off base there.Ask yourself this: In what way is Bolt a compliance car? If it is just because of a slow ramp-up then there isn't much of a case.
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
If one needs a car to attract members of the opposite sex, a cheaper alternative might be cosmetic surgery. Just sayin'
If humor has to be explained, then perhaps you're just not good at it.
Just sayin'
If humor has to be explained, then perhaps you're just not good at it.
Just sayin'
Just trying to save you some bucks...
ModelNforNerd
Active Member
I did OK with a Cavalier as my daily driver.
I think I'll pass on "advice from random internet stranger".
