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I like the idea of the Model 3 and I hope it is everything that Musk promised.
However, given the history of Tesla living up to promises and the fact that we STILL have not seen a working example of the car that will be available for sale or even details about the various options and configurations, I have a hard time understanding how people can bash the Bolt (a vehicle that I've driven and is being sold right now) as being a "compliance car". Musk can say that he's going to sell hundreds o thousands of Model 3s, but at this point there is absolutely no evidence that Tesla can scale up at that level. So pointing to projected sales volumes for a car that is actually in production and saying "compliance car" is a bit of a red herring when you are trying to tell me that Tesla, a company known for setting unrealistic expectations, is going to do something it's never done before...
Until there is a Model 3 that I can sit in, drive and configure, I can't say a dang thing about the Model 3. It's simply a bunch of promises and speculation at this point. And supplier issues harken back to issues that caused serious delays with the last vehicle Tesla launched.
When I can test drive a Model 3, I'll be happy to change my opinion.
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JohnSnowNW
Active Member
Well, I can't sit in a Bolt...and deliveries don't start here until everyone else's 2018 models hit the street.
The production version of the Bolt wasn't shown until 9 months before the initial Oct. manufacturing timeline.
I think it's pretty obvious why people consider the 2017 Bolt a compliance vehicle.
I called my local GM dealers. I have to explain to them what a Bolt is, let alone buying one this year.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
First of all you are the one first one bringing the compliance car straw man.
Second of all, your logic is completely flawed: if a car is a compliance car, the Model 3 coming later does not change that. For example the Spark EV was available 3 years ago, does the Model 3 not being out yet make it any less of a compliance car?
Third of all, Tesla has ~400k paid resevations for the Model 3. Their current production rate is just shy of 100k per year as of Q4 2016. So even if they just maintain the current production rate as the ModelS/X for the Model 3, they can easily beat whatever GM is doing.
Canuck
Well-Known Member
Well for someone who "can't say a dang thing about the Model 3" you sure said a lot about it in your post.
It must be funny for those who followed Tesla from the beginning, and put a deposit down on a Model S when it was just a concept, to read posts like this. They had real concerns if they'd get anything and if it would ever, in fact, exist. We put down $1,000, we know we will get a vehicle, but the only question is will it be delayed and can they meet production targets. I expect delays and production targets not being met, at least initially, but I also expect to be sitting in Model 3 one day parked beside my Model S. And until then I will say many, many "dang things" about it.
But I'll be watching you to see if you say another "dang thing" about the Model 3 before you can sit in, drive and configure it, to see if you are a man of your word.
Heck, I've got you all beat: I was driving my fully-electric Zap Xebra in 2006 and it was my daily driver for four years until I bought the Roadster in 2010. Who cares that it had a range of 40 miles and took 4 hours to fully charge from empty? I had a ten-year head start!
The Bolt is available now, in limited quantities and in limited markets. It's a good thing some folks can buy it and some folks are buying it. And with its range, it will get some folks driving electric who didn't think a Leaf had enough range. And that also is a good thing. But the Model 3 is just going to be a much better car overall, with access to a much better charging network, from a car maker that is dedicated to electric, not just doing it as a sideline.
I've got no complaints about the Bolt, and have recommended it to at least one person. But the OP purports that this supplier issue gives it a better chance of competing with the Model 3 when delivered. I think that argument holds little merit. The other discussions about races and vaporware are distractions to the topic.
bonnie
I play a nice person on twitter.
So imagine how Roadster owners feel
. Early owners put down $100k on faith. No car to see, no idea when it would be delivered or if the company would even survive.
WileyTheMan
Peanut Gallery Member
I'm not concerned, citing that car manufacturers don't put all their eggs in one basket for just such occasions. You would be setting yourself up for failure if you only had one source for a particular part.
Personally I feel they will start M3 production when they say: Mid 2017. The real question will be how quickly they can get mass-production going.
Personally I feel they will start M3 production when they say: Mid 2017. The real question will be how quickly they can get mass-production going.
Perhaps you need to go back to the start of this topic. The second post is the one that brought up the compliance car "straw man".
Second, my point was not about compliance cars. I was simply addressing an earlier post that thrust that red herring into the discussion. I think GM is doing the prudent thing in keeping production in line with expected sales and don't see the Bolt as being a "compliance car."
Third, you seem to have missed the point of my post. Paid reservations are great, but they can be cancelled and the real issues are (i) whether Tesla can scale up successfully and (ii) whether a Model 3 will even be available for consumer test drives and configurations in the near future. The fact is that we have NOT seen what the production Model 3 looks like or how it can be configured, while Bolts are actually being sold right now.
I've driven a Bolt. I haven't even seen a working model of the production version of the Model 3. Get it?
thefortunes
Active Member
Canuck
Well-Known Member
So imagine how Roadster owners feel
Wow, that took guts! My deepest respect goes out to them for helping make Tesla a reality.
omgwtfbyobbq
Active Member
I wouldn't say the Bolt (or any other long range EV) can be out for a decade and it wouldn't impact the 3. Nor would I say that they're entirely different segments. Plenty of shoppers, myself included, could cross-shop a Bolt of other longer range EV depending on how the 3 turns out.
Who buys Teslas? Prius owners and drivers of exotic cars
At the same time, one supplier ain't nothin', and my guess is that this launch is going to start slow (employees to dogfood the car and enthusiastic local owners) and Tesla will have months to get their production and suppliers sorted.
stopcrazypp
Well-Known Member
Fair point on my first point, but think you missed my third point. The fact of the matter is the projected volume of the Bolt (30k-50k) is well below what Tesla has demonstrated they can build (100k), much less the projected (~300k Model 3 by 2020).
My point about reservations is they have the demand (while GM may not, even if they get their production up). Even if half of the reservations cancel (unlikely), it'll still take GM 4-6 years to catch up.
You are saying things as if the Model 3 is Tesla's first volume EV.
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That makes sense: I bought a Prius in 2004. Ordered it in November of 2003 when the first reviews of the 2004 model came out, and took delivery two months later, in January. I bought it for being super-ultra-low emissions (SULEV) and gas-efficient, and because I liked the radical technology. The Prius led me to full-electric driving because I loved it so much when it went into EV mode, and wanted a car that would be pure electric.
So the Prius really did lead me to my Tesla, although Tesla was not yet making cars, and I drove the Zap Xebra for 4 years, from 2006 to 2010. But it was the little taste of electric driving in the Prius that set me on this path. I'll bet I'm not the only one who went from Prius to Tesla for exactly that reason. Prius gave us a taste of what driving could be. Tesla showed us what it could really be. And now I'm looking forward to the added safety of the Model 3.
thefortunes
Active Member
We also went from a Prius to Tesla, with another electric in the stable for about 3 years:
My wife drive a 2007 Prius to 170k miles before we got her Model S this year
I have a Roadster with 70k miles
My older kids both drove a 2009 Zenn (think "refined" Zap with 4 wheels) during high school
LobosPac
Member
I followed the Prius path too. A 2007 that ultimately had 250k miles on it before my son bought it off me (and is at 290k and running strong including a couple of non-stop"ish" cross-country trips). But that little taste of coaxing the Prius to stay in pure electric was enough ... I loved the pure electric and wanted more. That led me to a '14 Volt that was my daily drive (a surprising good car that my daughters love) until I got my MX P90DL last March. I'm on the wait list for a M3 for my wife (REALLY wish there would be a convertible or a really large battery option).
I'm actually saying things based on Tesla's track record and the fact that the Bolt actually exists. 400,000 reservations is great, but if you can't build those cars the reservations will mean nothing.
As an example, my cousin reserved a Model 3. She's now tired of waiting to see what the production version will look like (especially the interior) and asked me what I thought of the Bolt. I told her that I drove the Bolt and think it's a really nice EV, and maybe one day the Model 3 will be available (and the type of car she wants), but at this point the Bolt is the better option if she wants a new car that is a smaller EV.
She cancelled her Model 3 reservation and ordered a Bolt.
The Tesla faithful won't switch like she did, but the Model 3 is intended to be a car that appeals to a much wider audience than the core Tesla fans. So every day that the Model 3 isn't ready to be test driven or sold is a day that the reservation holders will, in many cases, decide to go with an alternative.
