Tesla.com - "Transitioning to Tesla Vision"

[powertoold]

Elaborate.

Previously:
1) AP2 transition mess was result of an abrupt breakup with Mobileye.
2) Tesla had to essentially create their entire AP development / validation / unit-testing / simulation stack from scratch.

Nowadays:
3) With each new AP update, Tesla has 100s/1000s of unit-tests to reduce the likelihood of regressions.
4) Their entire data-collection / labeling / testing / validation stack is built for low-latency progress, "Operation Vacation" (I know it isn't directly related to this, but Tesla has been building their data engine for all sorts of progress and testing).

 

[rjpjnk]

Deliveries of no-radar cars started yesterday. They had been sitting at service centers for a few weeks waiting for software that provided functionality without the radar input.

Was this the “Containment hold” issue?

 

[gearchruncher]

Do you guys think the switch to all-vision is to make it better or cheaper?

Let's see- it isn't rolling out to all vehicles, and it removes features from the vehicle. It better be cheaper.

 

[Cheburashka]

Previously:
1) AP2 transition mess was result of an abrupt breakup with Mobileye.
2) Tesla had to essentially create their entire AP development / validation / unit-testing / simulation stack from scratch.

Nowadays:
3) With each new AP update, Tesla has 100s/1000s of unit-tests to reduce the likelihood of regressions.
4) Their entire data-collection / labeling / testing / validation stack is built for low-latency progress, "Operation Vacation" (I know it isn't directly related to this, but Tesla has been building their data engine for all sorts of progress and testing).

This seems pretty abrupt to me. Tesla didn't have a plan as they were holding these cars in lots and at service centers and not selling them. Initially it was thought that the service centers would fit the radar. Now they are delivering them without radar.

 

[gearchruncher]

1) AP2 transition mess was result of an abrupt breakup with Mobileye.

That Tesla caused, and knew was coming for months (possibly over a year). And instead of telling that to customers, and that development would take a while, they said "don't worry, it will only be a few weeks until we get to parity." Seems very familiar. Oh, and they rolled out the Paint It Black FSD video to really sell it.

You realize that the most likely reason for radar removal right now is an abrupt supply chain issue where they can no longer get the part? WAY more abrupt than Mobileye?

If they had so much data and testing from their fleet, they wouldn't need to regress on features. The fact they are means there is technical risk to them achieving parity.

In communications dating back to May 2015 between Mobileye Chairman and Tesla's CEO, Mobileye expressed safety concerns regarding the use of Autopilot hands-free. After a subsequent face to face meeting, Tesla's CEO confirmed that activation of Autopilot would be "hands on." Despite this confirmation, Autopilot was rolled out in late 2015 with a hands-free activation mode. Mobileye has made substantial efforts since then to take more control on how this project can be steered to a proper functional safety system.

 

[rjpjnk]

If it’s really due to current shortage, why not make it upgradable later when parts come in rather than gimping the system?

 

[gearchruncher]

If it’s really due to current shortage, why not make it upgradable later when parts come in rather than gimping the system?

It likely is, but acknowledging this doesn't really fit Elon's "first principles", "pure vision" idea for the future, so it's better for them to sell this as on purpose and the path of the future rather than letting anyone know this wasn't their plan. Also, they famously said they were so nimble that they had managed to avoid any of the shortages going around the industry, so that kinda looks bad if it wasn't true. Finally, some buyers would wait, messing up the last 4 weeks of the quarter, and they need those radars going forward for next quarter for the markets that require them by regulation.

 

[rjpjnk]

Let's see- it isn't rolling out to all vehicles, and it removes features from the vehicle. It better be cheaper.

Like I said, I still have a lot to read, but was trying to give Tesla the benefit of the doubt here in thinking maybe they are dropping radar not because it’s too expensive for their “entry level” cars, but because they truly believe they can do even better with a purely vision system. Maybe I’m dreaming?

 

[Silicon Desert]

Ugh, I had a chance to try Toyota's lane keep assist feature about a year ago. It's pretty awful. The car was just endlessly bouncing between the two lane markers, not nicely staying in the middle. I'm not sure if they fixed it since then.

No, it wasn't the Toyota lane keep assist. You must have been in my wife's car when she was driving

 

[rjpjnk]

It likely is, but acknowledging this doesn't really fit Elon's "first principles", "pure vision" idea for the future, so it's better for them to sell this as on purpose and the path of the future rather than letting anyone know this wasn't their plan.

Ah, I see. I need to go learn about this “pure vision” philosophy and then come back. I didn’t know this was his thinking.

 

[powertoold]

You realize that the most likely reason for radar removal right now is an abrupt supply chain issue where they can no longer get the part? WAY more abrupt than Mobileye?

Based on what source? lol. Elon first mentioned pure vision about 3 months ago. Who knows how long they've been working on it.

 

[rjpjnk]

His character on SNL mentioned it I think

 

[Daniel in SD]

Like I said, I still have a lot to read, but was trying to give Tesla the benefit of the doubt here in thinking maybe they are dropping radar not because it’s too expensive for their “entry level” cars, but because they truly believe they can do even better with a purely vision system. Maybe I’m dreaming?

I'm sure Elon believes it. haha.
What's making everyone apprehensive is that they haven't reached parity with the radar system but are removing radar anyway. Personally I think they should have designed a working vision only system before removing the radar hardware. Just like they should have gotten vision based auto wipers working before they removed the rain sensor.
Subaru's EyeSight system is vision only and their cruise control and active safety features work well so it should be possible for Tesla to do it. Not sure what I would do if I were buying a Tesla today. If it turns out that "Tesla Vision" is a downgrade you could hope that they fix it soon or get a used one.

 

[gearchruncher]

Who knows how long they've been working on it.

Not long enough to be confident that it can work above 75 MPH nor drive around a parking lot apparently.

So two options:
They haven't been working on it for long and rushed it, but look at how fast they are making progress with all the data they have!
OR
They have been working on it for a while and it's really hard, and even after years of work, they still have feature gaps, but don't worry, these will be closed "soon"(tm).

Or, you know, they could just leave the <$100 radar on the car and not make anyone worry about this, kind of like they are doing for low volume, premium S/X owners. And hey, if they are so sure that they will be at feature parity in just a few weeks, why not just eat the couple bucks per car until the SW is literally ready? It's only a few weeks of production, under $1M. But yeah, I'm sure they're having no issues sourcing them unlike other manufacturers.....

Elon first mentioned pure vision about 3 months ago.

Elon may have started using "pure vision" this year, but he's been a vision only, first principles, humans drive with eyes believer for a very long time. This has always been his argument against Lidar, and you can see it in the Tesla AP design that doesn't use radar in any direction except forward, while other companies use it for front and rear side sensing even for simple tasks like blind spot monitoring and rear cross traffic alerts.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

can you use blue cruise on any road with a marking like Tesla autopilot?

is Tesla AP truly certified as hands-free and can you lean back and not touch the wheel for hours?

 

[momo3605]

I'm sure Elon believes it. haha.
What's making everyone apprehensive is that they haven't reached parity with the radar system but are removing radar anyway. Personally I think they should have designed a working vision only system before removing the radar hardware. Just like they should have gotten vision based auto wipers working before they removed the rain sensor.
Subaru's EyeSight system is vision only and their cruise control and active safety features work well so it should be possible for Tesla to do it. Not sure what I would do if I were buying a Tesla today. If it turns out that "Tesla Vision" is a downgrade you could hope that they fix it soon or get a used one.

How does Subaru eyesight handle sun directly in front of the cameras? I used to have an i3 that was vision only and TACC would disable itself if you were driving in direction of the sun in the evening

 

[texas_star_TM3]

By the time BlueCruise finally comes out, it will be hopelessly behind Autopilot/Tesla FSD.

lol. given that GM's supercruise which is comparable and *truly* hands-free is already out... bold statement

 

[DayTrippin]

Other dictators had visions too. The smart ones would have good council around them. Having seen some of the amazing results of LIDAR use in apps on the iPhone 12 has made me realize how great it is to even have it on your phone. We had an insurance adjuster spend about 5 minutes with his phone and did an amazing 3D rendition of our rooms.

I think Elon might have set off a bigger firestorm than he realized with this. This is messing with a safety feature of the car!

I don't care what other companies are doing in this context. The safety features were one of our priorities to purchase a Tesla.

 

[qdeathstar]

is Tesla AP truly certified as hands-free and can you lean back and not touch the wheel for hours?

So I guess that means no.... I’ll stick to Tesla autopilot for now then.

 

[texas_star_TM3]

Let's see- it isn't rolling out to all vehicles, and it removes features from the vehicle. It better be cheaper.

did Boeing cut it short on sensors and sensor input in the original MAX to make it better or cheaper?